CACG & CAC: Price And Grading Trends 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/31/2023 at 9:42 PM, World Colonial said:

I don't think either service consistently sells at a premium over the other.  Too few grading events to compare 99%+ of the time too.

The Big Game Hunters put their trophy coins largely in PCGS for domestic, foreign/world in NGC.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/31/2023 at 11:31 PM, Coinbuf said:

CACG does grade moderns.

Now I'm not surprised at that, learning they have outside investors to please.  Thanks for the update. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/1/2024 at 11:04 AM, DeplorableDan said:

The "L" (Legacy) signifies any previously stickered coin, PCGS or NGC, that was crossed directly from its previous holder to CACG. Since most have not submitted many PCGS/CAC coins for crossover, many assume the early legacy coins will be predominantly NGC crossovers. The purpose of the designation was more or less a safeguard against gradeflation.

Does CAC maintain a registry of previously submitted coins to CAC; the bar codes for PCGS and NGC ?

Edited January 2 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/1/2024 at 1:17 PM, zadok said:

...u keep plucking the wrong turkey, also trees dont have feathers usually, CAC did not do foreign nor ancients n as we have discussed numerous times, certified coins r only a minority % of the coins out there...many of the high hanging fruit will never be certified nor CAC'd for obvious reasons...additionally, crossovers between NGC n PCGS has territorial issues, also as discussed, crossovers to CACG is TBD....

But if there are so many high-end and trophy coins that are still raw....how come we never see them trade or change hands ?  

I think the Bass Proof Liberty Double Eagle is the only one that really sticks out in recent years.  I admit I don't track this closely, but who expects to maximize price nowadays without a TPG holder ? 

Edited January 2 by GoldFinger1969

[J P M]

On 1/2/2024 at 2:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But if there are so many high-end and trophy coins that are still raw....how come we never see them trade or change hands ?  

I think the Bass Proof Liberty Double Eagle is the only one that really sticks out in recent years.  I admit I don't track this closely, but who expects to maximize price nowadays without a TPG holder ? 

I receive private listings from Heritage every week of high-quality coins that are graded. Nothing my pocketbook can afford I am sure there are dealers out there that have a hit list of customers they call when something comes up. There is an auction house only a mile or two down the road from where I live. If you do not have their listings, you don't know there is a auction going on until you drive by. There is a quiet side to numismatics most collectors do not see. 

[DeplorableDan]

On 1/1/2024 at 6:09 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

 If a CACG-L coin is no more likely to cross back to PCGS or NGC at the same grade then was CAC wrong to bean it?

Yes and no. There will always be coins that fall right on the border between grades, or the border between "B" and "C". Not even JA can grade these all consistently 100 times in a row, its simply too close to call. The coin's grade isnt inherently "wrong" as a 64+ OR a 65, a 55 OR a 58. Perhaps the coin is teetering on the edge of being too cleany, but it toned over time and the overall appearance is somewhat pleasing so it could go either way. These threshold cases will never cease to exist, at any grading company. 

On 1/1/2024 at 6:09 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

 

Shouldn't a beaned coin be strong for the grade and more likely to cross back being market graded?

In theory, yes, but if the CACG coins are being graded to the same standard, or perhaps even a bit tighter, then they would have an equal chance to cross also.

On 1/1/2024 at 6:09 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Do you think that opinions can be that varied for the same coin on a consistent basis?

Absolutely, explained above. It's not possible for humans to be that accurate. 

On 1/1/2024 at 6:09 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

 

If CACG is grading more tightly than compared to PCGS or NGC then those coins, regular CACG coins, should stand a good chance at crossing or maybe even bumping up a grade. Hypothetically that is. 

 

Hypothetically, yes.

Edited January 2 by DeplorableDan

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2024 at 7:07 AM, J P M said:

There is a quiet side to numismatics most collectors do not see. 

Oh I don't doubt that.....it's just a question of HOW BIG is it relative to the visible, certified, public stuff we see ?

Is it a niche of 1-5% ?  10%, a noticeable amount ?  Or a hidden black market size of 20-35% or the like ?

I have no idea. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Good posts, Dan....and welcome to these Forums. 

[zadok]

On 1/2/2024 at 2:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But if there are so many high-end and trophy coins that are still raw....how come we never see them trade or change hands ?  

I think the Bass Proof Liberty Double Eagle is the only one that really sticks out in recent years.  I admit I don't track this closely, but who expects to maximize price nowadays without a TPG holder ? 

...its not so much just the "trophy" coins u seem concentrated on, there r literally hundreds of thousands of unc n rare coins out there that have not n will not be certified...not every coin transaction is meant for the public eye...that doesnt equate to there being unheard of hoards its just the reality of the coin world...the only real reason to certify a true rarity is the authentication, those that really know dont need tpg grading....

 

On 1/2/2024 at 2:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But if there are so many high-end and trophy coins that are still raw....how come we never see them trade or change hands ?  

I think the Bass Proof Liberty Double Eagle is the only one that really sticks out in recent years.  I admit I don't track this closely, but who expects to maximize price nowadays without a TPG holder ? 

 

[zadok]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Oh I don't doubt that.....it's just a question of HOW BIG is it relative to the visible, certified, public stuff we see ?

Is it a niche of 1-5% ?  10%, a noticeable amount ?  Or a hidden black market size of 20-35% or the like ?

I have no idea. 

...bigger....

[DeplorableDan]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:16 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Good posts, Dan....and welcome to these Forums. 

Thanks GF!

I also wanted to respond to you on CU, but i had already proclaimed that i was exiting the thread so i must keep my word 

 

Re.  A/B/C, you're conflating the other tpg's A/B/C with JA's A/B/C, and the whole explanation is just a delicate way to let the masses know that his scale is just a bit tighter than the competition. @Coinbuf made a great suggestion for you in this thread to just read between the lines some and not to take it all too literally. They are not intentionally holdering a 65 "C" as a 64+, it just means that the range of other tpg's 65 "C" actually encompasses coins that he would grade as a 64 "A". Imagine the uproar if he had stated that a large number of coins that he declined to sticker we're either overgraded or should be details coins? Hence his reasoning to tread lightly and to just state that C coins were not necessarily overgraded. The truth is that many of them are overgraded in his opinion, but with optics in mind it wouldnt have been a good idea for him to be brutally honest. 

 

Here is a diagram I made to attempt to put it in perspective, but this isn;'t meant to be taken that literally either. Let me know if this helps at all.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 2 by DeplorableDan

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2024 at 11:15 AM, DeplorableDan said:

They are not intentionally holdering a 65 "C" as a 64+, it just means that the range of other tpg's 65 "C" actually encompasses coins that he would grade as a 64 "A".

OK, I go back to that interview with Maurice Rosen from 2008 because it's JA's own words...he's specific...and CAC had just started.  

He said that (at that time) 85% or so of the coins were "A" and "B" and all/virtually all of these coins were getting the CAC sticker.  They were avoiding the "C" coins which were NOT worthy of a sticker but he said definitely:  they are OK for the grade (i.e., MS-65).  As for so-called "D" and "F" coins...these were clearly OVERGRADED but outliers and not a concern here.

Now it's possible that SOME of those "C" coins weren't OK for the grade but the bulk had to be (JA's own words).  Now...he's saying that they do NOT belong in a CACG MS-65 holder though it's possible the same coin was looked at by the CAC sticker people and they said not worthy of a CAC sticker but yeah, it's OK for this PCGS or NGC MS-65 holder. 

See what I am saying ?  I'm just repeating what JA said. 

Maybe I am too literal, I dunno.

The interview also had JA saying that lots of quality coins for the grade were being "hoarded" by investors and collectors and the MS-65's (to use an example) that the dealers had for sale to the public or newcomers like me were largely the "C" coins.

And maybe that's where the problem was ?  They start to pay "A" or "B" prices for "C" coins and then what are the "A" or "B" coins worth ?  A premium if not $$$ from 1 grade higher and this is how you get the intersection of market grading and gradeflation.

I think. 

Edited January 2 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 1/2/2024 at 1:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can you give us an idea of the specifics of the coin TYPES and the coin NUMBERS ?  

No I cannot. But what I can tell you is they run the whole gamut, from gold down to cents. One series that IS under-represented is St. Gaudens $20 gold, virtually all of which was smuggled out of the country between 1933 and the 1970’s. Over-represented are Liberty Seated and Barber, as well as V nickels, Shield Nickels, and Large Cents and Half Cents. Absolutely every 2 cent and 3 cent nickel over XF grade in my collection was bought raw in a central Pennsylvania live auction WITHOUT INTERNET BIDDING. In the late 1990’s, I was at an unclaimed property auction held at the Susquehanna River Rescue Squad’s headquarters at Steelton, PA, just south of Harrisburg. All items had been escheated to state custody, and were being sold because rightful owners could not be located. One lot was a LARGE sized peanut butter jar from a bank building’s SDB vault that was inundated by river water. Inside that jar were U.S. 2 cent pieces packed tight to the lid. I didn’t buy it. Somebody did. Locally, 2-cent piece prices have STILL NOT TO THIS DAY recovered to normal ranges.  

Edited January 2 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 1/2/2024 at 2:19 PM, VKurtB said:

No I cannot. But what I can tell you is they run the whole gamut, from gold down to cents. One series that IS under-represented is St. Gaudens $20 gold, virtually all of which was smuggled out of the country between 1933 and the 1970’s. 

...i resent the insinuation...i declared them as foil covered chocolates....

[VKurtB]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:18 AM, zadok said:

how come we never see them trade or change hands ?  

You never WILL see them as long as you keep looking where you are looking. If you’re in greater NYC, you need to get in a car, go west on Interstate 78 until it ends at Interstate 81, near Fort Indiantown Gap, draw a 100 mile radius around that point, log onto auctionzip.com and attend those auctions. What’s more, Jeff Garrett will never see them, Angel Dee’s will never see them unless Carl Waltz brings some to him, Laura Sperber will never see them, and Colonel Steve Ellsworth will never see the large cents that are there. Why not? You have to BE THERE, not at some incestuous coin show on the circuit. You have to get in your personal vehicle and DRIVE THERE, as I have done for over 30 years now. 

Edited January 2 by VKurtB

[DeplorableDan]

On 1/2/2024 at 12:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

OK, I go back to that interview with Maurice Rosen from 2008 because it's JA's own words...he's specific...and CAC had just started.  

He said that (at that time) 85% or so of the coins were "A" and "B" and all/virtually all of these coins were getting the CAC sticker.  They were avoiding the "C" coins which were NOT worthy of a sticker but he said definitely:  they are OK for the grade (i.e., MS-65).  As for so-called "D" and "F" coins...these were clearly OVERGRADED but outliers and not a concern here.

Now it's possible that SOME of those "C" coins weren't OK for the grade but the bulk had to be (JA's own words).  Now...he's saying that they do NOT belong in a CACG MS-65 holder though it's possible the same coin was looked at by the CAC sticker people and they said not worthy of a CAC sticker but yeah, it's OK for this PCGS or NGC MS-65 holder. 

See what I am saying ?  I'm just repeating what JA said. 

Maybe I am too literal, I dunno.

The interview also had JA saying that lots of quality coins for the grade were being "hoarded" by investors and collectors and the MS-65's (to use an example) that the dealers had for sale to the public or newcomers like me were largely the "C" coins.

And maybe that's where the problem was ?  They start to pay "A" or "B" prices for "C" coins and then what are the "A" or "B" coins worth ?  A premium if not $$$ from 1 grade higher and this is how you get the intersection of market grading and gradeflation.

I think. 

You’re still taking it way too literally. 

You can’t extrapolate his methodology from a 15 year old interview. When a CEO is interviewed for TV, the content is softened and modified for public digestion. 
 

What was he supposed to say, that there’s a ton of coins that suck for the grade and PCGS/NGC is not good at their job? Maybe some of those C coins might be “ok” for the grade in their holder, but JA certainly wasn’t standing behind those coins financially, and now that they opened their own grading company we now get to see exactly what he really thought of those coins. Forget about that interview, 15 years was a a long time in the past and there have been several cycles of inconsistent grading since then. Who knows how he would have answered those questions in 2021. 

Edited January 2 by DeplorableDan

[VKurtB]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Oh I don't doubt that.....it's just a question of HOW BIG is it relative to the visible, certified, public stuff we see ?

It’s BIGGER, MUCH BIGGER. Buuuuuut, if you’re comfortable putting quantitative trust in pop reports and internet estimates, by all means, do what floats your boat. I’ll take my “lying” eyes before ANY of that drivel. 

Edited January 2 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 1/2/2024 at 1:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can you give us an idea of the specifics of the coin TYPES and the coin NUMBERS ?  

Just because you are seeing hundreds or even thousands of raw coins for a series type doesn't mean it will make a dent in a population census that are millions or tens of millions (Saints and Morgans, to use 2 examples).

I don't doubt that you have found a nice niche that suits your needs.  But as much as I would WANT TO BELIEVE that there lots of quality raw Mint State-quality or high AU-quality coins that can add to the TPG certifieds....I doubt it.

If I'm wrong, and there are tens of thousands of hoards out there hitting the market, I think we would have heard about it. 

Think of it differently. There is a large population of collectors and collections for which complete SECRECY is top of mind. They don’t WANT anyone in the public to know what they have, and they act accordingly. I didn’t always know this. I was told this by Kerry Wetterstrom, the very last Farran Zerbe award winner, who was then the program director for the NYINC show, AND the publisher of The Celator (and then-President of the Red Rose Coin Club). He also worked later for CNG. He told me that JUST IN LANCASTER COUNTY, PA, were 10-15 collections worth OVER $10 million each, NONE OF WHICH THE GENERAL HOBBY KNOWS ABOUT, INCLUDING Heritage or Stacks Bowers, and EVERY COIN IN THOSE COLLECTIONS IS RAW!

Edited January 2 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2024 at 2:48 PM, DeplorableDan said:

You’re still taking it way too literally.  You can’t extrapolate his methodology from a 15 year old interview. When a CEO is interviewed for TV, the content is softened and modified for public digestion.  What was he supposed to say, that there’s a ton of coins that suck for the grade and PCGS/NGC is not good at their job? Maybe some of those C coins might be “ok” for the grade in their holder, but JA certainly wasn’t standing behind those coins financially, and now that they opened their own grading company we now get to see exactly what he really thought of those coins. Forget about that interview, 15 years was a a long time in the past and there have been several cycles of inconsistent grading since then. Who knows how he would have answered those questions in 2021. 

I found a 38-page thread over at CACForum that must be what you and others are saying is the Holy Bible on CAC and CACG. It might take me a few weeks, but I'll try and read all the posts. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2024 at 3:21 PM, VKurtB said:

He told me that JUST IN LANCASTER COUNTY, PA, were 10-15 collections worth OVER $10 million each, NONE OF WHICH THE GENERAL HOBBY KNOWS ABOUT, INCLUDING Heritage or Stacks Bowers, and EVERY COIN IN THOSE COLLECTIONS IS RAW!

Wow, that's hard to believe.  I believe you...but...wow.  

[VKurtB]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:22 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wow, that's hard to believe.  I believe you...but...wow.  

South central Pennsylvania is a unique place. The people are mostly descended from the “plain people” (I am) and are almost fanatically secretive and mistrusting of strangers. They tend to be hoarders and most WOULD NEVER EVEN IMAGINE sending off their coins to Sarasota or Southern California. It’s a matter of distrust and principle. Conservative to an extreme you cannot imagine

[VKurtB]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:22 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wow, that's hard to believe.  I believe you...but...wow.  

Kerry W. had to go out and look at those collections as part of his work for CNG, and swore to secrecy of any details. 

Edited January 4 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 1/2/2024 at 7:07 AM, J P M said:

.... I am sure there are dealers out there that have a hit list of customers they call when something comes up....

🐓:  They do, but something else has come up that explains, in part, why I have been waiting two years for an upgrade:  the major dealers in at least six nations in Europe have quietly dispensed with, i.e., abandoned, formal Mint State grading, as practiced by their U.S. counterparts, in favor of their own -- particularly in the highest grades. Thus, a single term embraces the top FIVE grades, MS-65 to MS-70, e.g., FDC (France and Italy) UNC (England) ST (Germany) and SC (Spain). The other problem as noted by Messrs. RWB, VKB and z is lack of availability. The onus is now on the buyer to make the call as to whether a candidate appears to be suitable for submission.

[VKurtB]

On 1/4/2024 at 5:59 PM, Henri Charriere said:

The onus is now on the buyer to make the call as to whether a candidate appears to be suitable for submission.

As it has always been in the circles in which I travel. The OVERWHELMING majority of my approximately 500 slabbed coins were submitted raw, by me. On the other hand, I have removed from slabs another few dozen. Every coin is evaluated on its own merits with no silly rules. If it makes sense to me in a slab, I take it in (hand to hand, person to person, at a show). If a slabbed coin makes no sense to me, I’ll crack it out so fast it’ll make your nose bleed. I surrender NO decision to a past owner. Hint: there never has been a bullion strike ASE that has ever made sense being in a slab   

[Henri Charriere]

On 1/4/2024 at 7:24 PM, VKurtB said:

.... Hint: there never has been a bullion strike ASE that has ever made sense being in a slab   

I agree. Seems to be a clever marketing ploy that seems to be working -- so far.  I have bought and I have sold a long, long time ago. The only saving grace for collectors of this line of tchotchke is a sufficient rise in spot silver to overcome the colossal lapse in judgment in buying metals which come all dressed up courtesy of the various finishing schools.  🤣

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/4/2024 at 7:24 PM, VKurtB said:

Hint: there never has been a bullion strike ASE that has ever made sense being in a slab   

As a gift or present....preservation....ease of handling.

Had there been TPGs when I was young, I think looking at the holder with the information might have stimulated my interest many years sooner.  That and/or some of the books I now have which I think I would have enjoyed reading in the 1970's. 

[numisport]

On 12/28/2023 at 1:29 PM, Coinbuf said:

A bit late to my replies on this thread and to return to the original thrust of the thread I believe your statement is only partially correct.   When JA first started CAC his goal was to find really nice, original, unmolested (or as close as can be) or "rare" coins that he would like to buy then resell to other dealers.   The bean was a way for him to identify those coins as they would come to the market via auctions or be offered directly to him.   Very quickly as more and more dealers and collectors started to submit to CAC the market adopted the A, B, C concept which was an easy concept for people to understand and accept.   A coins being the cream of the crop and those he felt were undergraded are a mix of gold and green beans.   The B coins are (in theory all green beaned) considered by JA as solid for the grade.   The C coins being a mixture of coins that are correctly graded but more lower end of the grade, overgraded (in his opinion), and those straight graded coins with surface issues or that have been doctored.

Once those CAC approved coins began to hit the market with dealers hyping them, collectors salivating over them, and both the PCGS and NGC registries recognizing those coins as better than average the market for these coins really took off and CAC became something other than the original intention.   And while I do not know this for fact, I think it may have become difficult for JA to buy CAC beaned coins, at levels where he could then resell for a profit as the collector demand really drove up the prices.   That last part is just speculation on my part but makes sense to me.

To return to the first part of my reply, because JA was looking for coins to buy and resell, some coins that might not meet the A or B concept may have been beaned simply because he wanted to be able to identify those coins for buying not necessarily because it was a true A or B coin.   For those who don't understand the original purpose of CAC it is those coins that may not look like an A or B coin but with a bean that confuse some collectors.

This is an extension of my reply above, the answer is yes JA did indeed buy CAC coins as they came to market.   Often through auction venues, but I do know a few collectors that have sold directly to JA.   Something to keep in mind, JA has himself said that he is/was not the highest paying buyer, which makes sense as his goal was to buy then resell to dealers via the wholesale side of the business.   So as CAC matured and the prices for beaned coins began to rise I would expect that fewer and fewer sold directly as it would have be smarter to sell your CAC beaned coins through an auction venue to realize the best selling price.

As far as NGC Regiatry recognizing CAC coins, I find it is no longer the case. They've had a change of heart 'so to speak'. They now claim they have a software problem and can no longer accept CAC coins at this time. However they still recognize CAC Registry coins excepted early on. Any other response on this issue is welcome as I have no problem myself using the CAC stickered coin lookup tool.

[Coinbuf]

On 1/5/2024 at 1:44 PM, numisport said:

As far as NGC Regiatry recognizing CAC coins, I find it is no longer the case. They've had a change of heart 'so to speak'. They now claim they have a software problem and can no longer accept CAC coins at this time. However they still recognize CAC Registry coins excepted early on. Any other response on this issue is welcome as I have no problem myself using the CAC stickered coin lookup tool.

You are correct, NGC started to allow the CAC bean and gave those coins extra points in the registry scoring.   Suddenly that just stopped with no warning or notice, one day you could add a CAC beaned coin and have the bean recognized the next you could not.   Then; a bit later before the 2023 registry cutoff; all the extra CAC points were removed from each CAC approved coin under the explanation of fairness due to not being able to or not wanting to (who knows which).

The NGC staff has been tight lipped on this so only they know where the disconnect between the NGC registry and CAC is and why, but it doesn't appear to be a top priority to fix, at least not imo.

[VKurtB]

On 1/5/2024 at 1:38 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

preservation

Biggest lie EVER concerning slabbing coins. Slabs are gassier than an Oktoberfest attendee with a plateful of Brussels sprouts.

Edited January 5 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/5/2024 at 6:39 PM, VKurtB said:

Biggest lie EVER concerning slabbing coins. Slabs are gassier than an Oktoberfest attendee with a plateful of Brussels sprouts.

I mean handling, dropping, fingerprints, etc.