What are the top unanswered questions in American numismatics today? 1 1

[RWB]

Possible research ideas....

[Coinbuf]

I go POGO?  

[RWB]

On 8/11/2023 at 7:53 PM, Henri Charriere said:

1. First and foremost, how can a TPGS verify the veracity of its certification totals for dates and series?
2. Future discoveries of hoards, coin meltings (authorized/unauthorized) notwithstanding, how can the hobby determine the number of coins that lie extant, irrespective of grade?
3. What is the socially acceptable way to persuade a recalcitrant collector that your need to acquire an example, e.g. a Set Registry, supersedes his illogical psychological need to maintain ownership of it for no purpose that he can reasonably or intelligently articulate.

I should have added "meaningful" questions.....

[Reno Raines]

How about the impact of social media and the adverse effects it has on the hobby as a whole?

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

To me, the most important topic is the "super fakes" that are coming out of Asia today.  Not only coins in convincing fake holders, but fake coins that have slipped through every major grader and are in real holders.  The work that Jack Young does is amazing and invaluable, and he has taught me a TON about counterfeits.  But you have to know where to look, and information is spread in a few places.  

There are many books about counterfeits and counterfeit detection.  However, many (possibly all) fall short when it comes to the super fakes, fake holders and other very GOOD counterfeits that are being made today - these are not like yesterday's counterfeits!

I realize that this is not what you are looking for.... but this is the most necessary reference I can think of today, and revisions will have to be made often to keep up.

Edited August 12, 2023 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[zadok]

On 8/11/2023 at 5:18 PM, Coinbuf said:

I go POGO?  

...MARCO....

[zadok]

...obviously some members here still dont grasp the meaning of "meaningful" n prefer to go off on tangents bout grading, regurgitating bout unavailable coins n other esoteric exercises in vocabulary n non-numismatic syntax...but ill play the game u r seeking, has the myth/search for the 1841-0 $5 gold half eagles been resolved to everyone's satisfaction?...has the 50 or so that "might" be out there been accounted for or discounted well enuf to put the issue to bed?...minor mystery but was a big deal once....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/12/2023 at 10:27 AM, zadok said:

has the myth/search for the 1841-0 $5 gold half eagles been resolved to everyone's satisfaction?...has the 50 or so that "might" be out there been accounted for or discounted well enuf to put the issue to bed?...minor mystery but was a big deal once....

Is that the coin that belonged to the DuPonts ?

[zadok]

On 8/12/2023 at 10:34 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Is that the coin that belonged to the DuPonts ?

...no it supposedly was in the col. green collection n later the farouk collection...but from what i remember was actually a C mint coin rather than O mint etc...i read bunch bout it years ago but never heard if there was any later results published after akers n winters?...i was just trying present a question along the lines that rwb was seeking, best i could come up with off top of my pointed head....

[Sandon]

   I'm not sure whether most collectors would regard this as one of the "top unanswered questions in American numismatics", but I consider it important.

   There are a number of lower mintage Philadelphia mint issues from 1863 to 1890 that are more highly valued as circulation strikes than as proofs in equivalent or higher grades. These coins include copper-nickel three cent pieces of 1883, 84, 85 and 87, Shield nickels of 1879-81, silver three cent pieces of 1863-72, Liberty Seated half dimes and dimes of 1863-67, and Liberty Seated quarters and half dollars of 1879-90, as well as some other issues.  Some purported proofs of this era have satiny or even frosty surfaces and sometimes weak or indifferent strikes, while some purported uncirculated circulation strikes are highly prooflike and well struck.  In some cases, such as the 1884 three cent nickel and the 1880 Shield nickel, it is believed that all proofs and circulation strikes were struck from single pairs of dies, and for some other issues it is believed that some die pairs were used to coin both proofs and circulation issues.  The grading services purport to be able to tell the difference between circulation strikes and proofs but do not explain how. (I don't think that checking whether the edge is squared off or beveled, if that's how they make the decision, would be a reliable indicator, as I've seen proofs with somewhat beveled edges and frosty circulation strikes with essentially squared off edges.)

    The issue is even more serious in the case of well-circulated coins whose original finish has worn off.  The NGC Census shows, for example, circulated 1880 Shield nickels in grades as low as "PrAg" in both the "MS" and "PF" categories. In the NGC Price Guide, a circulation strike 1880 Shield nickel lists $1,100 in "PrAg" and $2,100 in Good, while the lowest proof grade listed is PF 60 at $300, with a Gem PF 67 listed at $1,400. I would consider a research project to determine (1) how grading services purport to tell the difference between such proof and circulation strike issues, (2) whether this method is valid, and (3) if not, whether there is any objectively reliable method to tell the difference a most worthwhile endeavor. As matters stand, I would only purchase attractive pieces certified or offered as proofs of these issues rather than paying a much higher price for any purported circulation strike.

[robec1347]

I don’t know if this has much interest among non Lincoln collectors, but for me it would center around the myth concerning a couple of  early Lincoln issues. The possibility or existence of a 1917 proof and a 1910 VDB non proof.
 

Another question is whether MPL dies were used to strike coins meant for circulation. I’ve read conflicting articles. One said MPL dies were kept in the medal room separate from regular issue dies. 

[RWB]

On 8/11/2023 at 9:29 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I shall endeavor to try, try again...  How about a comprehensive long overdue review of the grading system and the development of a Universal System of Citation. The legal research scholars have developed such a system (now available in its 21st edition, the psychiatric profession has theirs, DSM-5, and the adoption of such a standard which would replicate the empirical data you've long harangued devotees to numismatism on putting an end to all the endless technical vs. marketing ploys, the Variety attribution Sandon recently noted on another column as regarding one TPGS, overgrading, undergrading  reportedly found in older slabs, ad infinitum, ad nauseam.

[Please do not embarrass me; my "Rising Star" status as bestowed on me by our hosts is not irrevocable.]  🤣

Go away, "Quintus."

[RWB]

On 8/12/2023 at 1:57 PM, robec1347 said:

I don’t know if this has much interest among non Lincoln collectors, but for me it would center around the myth concerning a couple of  early Lincoln issues. The possibility or existence of a 1917 proof and a 1910 VDB non proof.
 

Another question is whether MPL dies were used to strike coins meant for circulation. I’ve read conflicting articles. One said MPL dies were kept in the medal room separate from regular issue dies. 

1. No one has ever demonstrated that 1917 matte proof cents were made. The order to end all proof coins came in October 1916. There would have been no purpose to making proofs in 1917 and there was no master die or hub change that year. (PS: I've examined 1917 quarters that have spectacular detail, but they are documented from the source, T. Louis Comparette, as early coins off new dies -- part of the normal range of coinage.)

2. As with 1917 proof claims, this has never been demonstrated. Entirely new master dies and hubs were made for latter 1909, following removal of the initials. The new reverse had different relief than the original with initials. No dies with initials were retained for any purpose. (Grinding VDB off the rev hub was considered but rejected as being an incomplete solution.)

3. Matte proof dies for Lincoln and Buffalo proofs were made by sandblasting normal, new working dies. These were used in a high-pressure medal press to make the matte proof coins. Excess pressure limited die life and sharpness, and some condemned proof dies might have been used in normal toggle presses - but we have no records one way or another. Additionally, no scientific examination has ever been made. (There is ALWAYS a range of detail in coins made under "identical" circumstances due to die wear, planchet hardness, and mechanical inconsistencies -- enough to confuse ordinary visual clues.)

Edited August 12, 2023 by RWB

[RWB]

On 8/12/2023 at 1:31 PM, Sandon said:

   I'm not sure whether most collectors would regard this as one of the "top unanswered questions in American numismatics", but I consider it important.

   There are a number of lower mintage Philadelphia mint issues from 1863 to 1890 that are more highly valued as circulation strikes than as proofs in equivalent or higher grades. These coins include copper-nickel three cent pieces of 1883, 84, 85 and 87, Shield nickels of 1879-81, silver three cent pieces of 1863-72, Liberty Seated half dimes and dimes of 1863-67, and Liberty Seated quarters and half dollars of 1879-90, as well as some other issues.  Some purported proofs of this era have satiny or even frosty surfaces and sometimes weak or indifferent strikes, while some purported uncirculated circulation strikes are highly prooflike and well struck.  In some cases, such as the 1884 three cent nickel and the 1880 Shield nickel, it is believed that all proofs and circulation strikes were struck from single pairs of dies, and for some other issues it is believed that some die pairs were used to coin both proofs and circulation issues.  The grading services purport to be able to tell the difference between circulation strikes and proofs but do not explain how. (I don't think that checking whether the edge is squared off or beveled, if that's how they make the decision, would be a reliable indicator, as I've seen proofs with somewhat beveled edges and frosty circulation strikes with essentially squared off edges.)

    The issue is even more serious in the case of well-circulated coins whose original finish has worn off.  The NGC Census shows, for example, circulated 1880 Shield nickels in grades as low as "PrAg" in both the "MS" and "PF" categories. In the NGC Price Guide, a circulation strike 1880 Shield nickel lists $1,100 in "PrAg" and $2,100 in Good, while the lowest proof grade listed is PF 60 at $300, with a Gem PF 67 listed at $1,400. I would consider a research project to determine (1) how grading services purport to tell the difference between such proof and circulation strike issues, (2) whether this method is valid, and (3) if not, whether there is any objectively reliable method to tell the difference a most worthwhile endeavor. As matters stand, I would only purchase attractive pieces certified or offered as proofs of these issues rather than paying a much higher price for any purported circulation strike.

Excellent set of questions involving several denominations. They pop up unexpectedly in a wide variety of articles and auction comments. The answers are likely just as varied.

The following column, "Reasons for Low Mintage Coins – 1879-1890," will soon appear in CoinWeek (or might have already been published - submitted July 13). It should answer some of your questions. Here's the closing paragraph:

"If correct, Fox’ and Kimball’s comments explain most of the very small circulating coin mintages from Philadelphia – gold, silver and minor – during the later 1870s and 1880s. It might also help us understand use of proof dies to make circulating coins, and the consequent difficulty in telling a proof 1889 quarter from a circulation 1889 quarter."

Edited August 12, 2023 by RWB

[cladking]

I've always been interested in circulating coinage.  If I were alive in the 1840's I would be studying the coins actively circulating.

The task is virtually impossible and perhaps not worth the effort to even format or begin but the greatest possible task would be to understand how all coinage circulated since the first coin was minted.  Failing this (and it is a fool's errand) it would be nice to understand one country's circulating coinage at one time.  It would be nice to have actual numbers for for things like attrition and its rate of change.  It would be nice to know about regional and temporal differences in circulation patterns.  I would love to know some of the reasons that some coins are almost universally worn out or destroyed and others receive little or no wear.  

Why are so many more bicentennial quarters in circulation since the states coins were introduced?  Of course they don't stand out as much any longer so fewer are removed but why are they being released?  Why are they still almost all in high grade?  

[RWB]

On 8/12/2023 at 3:28 PM, cladking said:

I've always been interested in circulating coinage.  If I were alive in the 1840's I would be studying the coins actively circulating.

The task is virtually impossible and perhaps not worth the effort to even format or begin but the greatest possible task would be to understand how all coinage circulated since the first coin was minted.  Failing this (and it is a fool's errand) it would be nice to understand one country's circulating coinage at one time.  It would be nice to have actual numbers for for things like attrition and its rate of change.  It would be nice to know about regional and temporal differences in circulation patterns.  I would love to know some of the reasons that some coins are almost universally worn out or destroyed and others receive little or no wear.  

Why are so many more bicentennial quarters in circulation since the states coins were introduced?  Of course they don't stand out as much any longer so fewer are removed but why are they being released?  Why are they still almost all in high grade?  

There are scattered data for this, but nothing comprehensive. There is a detailed table of gold dollars by date/mint and abrasion. Active circulation can be estimated from a combination of bank coin orders, and coin hoards - especially of low denomination pieces. There is also an article I wrote in the upcoming ANS Journal titled "Circulation of Foreign Gold and Silver Coins in the United States – 1826," which examines contemporary survey data for pistareens to Eagles. Lastly, there will be a detailed chapter in Mine to Mint 2 titled "Issuance and Distribution of Coinage," which explains how US Mint coins actually entered circulation and the various methods used until the FRB era. Copper and minor coin circulation might be estimated by looking at extant coin distribution and bank orders by locality/region and quantities. Some  letters also mention local shortages or excesses. (For example, the southern states in the 1830s wanted half dimes and dimes, but Treasury Dept wanted to show "big" numbers so they pushed halves.)

Regional circulation patterns depended on local agricultural cycles and Atlantic trade routes with Europe (and a little with Asia). These are poorly documented and understood only on the macro level. Detailed analysis of old records from Riggs Bank (Washington DC) and a few others could help for some localities, but would involve a huge investment in time and talent.

Wish I could be more specific, but this kind of info is widely scattered.

Edited August 12, 2023 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm interested in Big Picture, Macro stuff.  The demographics of the hobby.....the number of people attending national, regional, and local shows....membership in the professional and trade associations.....do we know how many dealers there are ?....are local WE BUY GOLD/SILVER types increasing or decreasing (you now have publicly-traded pawn shops).....internet registered users, active bidders, sales and auctions.....and other stuff like this.

Now, I know some of you say that the folks who run or own these enterprises have business and competitive reasons for not divulging this information.....but hey...this 'aint the Manhattan Project.  If ExxonMobil and Chevron can give out refining data weekly....if companies can reveal sales and profits quarterly (with sometimes monthly updates)....these folks can give an idea on Big Picture trends.

Is the coin collecting hobby GROWING...SHRINKING....or STABLE.....is it sports cards, NFTs, or stamps ?

Everything I read is anectdotal or guestimates of an individual with little factual data.  I'd like to see some of the governing bodies and associations pick up the slack.

[samclemen3991]

I am afraid the only numismatic question rolling around in my head is what coin should I pursue next.

However, someone asked about information on the how and why's of coins circulating.  I would highly recommend 2 articles that can be found on the Newman Portal in the Gobrecht Journal under periodicals.  Look under July 1989 for The Circulation life of liberty Seated Coinage,  part 1.  And in the Nov 1989 for the second half.  Quite well written and filled with facts.  James
P.S  It's free
 

[RWB]

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If ExxonMobil and Chevron can give out refining data weekly....if companies can reveal sales and profits quarterly (with sometimes monthly updates)....these folks can give an idea on Big Picture trends.

Public corporations are required to report certain information. Private entities - as are most in numismatics - have no such responsibility.

[zadok]

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm interested in Big Picture, Macro stuff.  The demographics of the hobby.....the number of people attending national, regional, and local shows....membership in the professional and trade associations.....do we know how many dealers there are ?....are local WE BUY GOLD/SILVER types increasing or decreasing (you now have publicly-traded pawn shops).....internet registered users, active bidders, sales and auctions.....and other stuff like this.

Now, I know some of you say that the folks who run or own these enterprises have business and competitive reasons for not divulging this information.....but hey...this 'aint the Manhattan Project.  If ExxonMobil and Chevron can give out refining data weekly....if companies can reveal sales and profits quarterly (with sometimes monthly updates)....these folks can give an idea on Big Picture trends.

Is the coin collecting hobby GROWING...SHRINKING....or STABLE.....is it sports cards, NFTs, or stamps ?

Everything I read is anectdotal or guestimates of an individual with little factual data.  I'd like to see some of the governing bodies and associations pick up the slack.

...okay i can give u the requested info u seek precisely, its 82.71% of the numbers of used car sales n salespersons...now from the horses mouth, Heritage stated this past week that coin sales resulted in over 80% of their total revenue, to be more exact the number was nine digits but if u r interested in the first digit PM me n ill go further, but im not sure i can list that in a public forum etc....

[World Colonial]

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm interested in Big Picture, Macro stuff.  The demographics of the hobby.....the number of people attending national, regional, and local shows....membership in the professional and trade associations.....do we know how many dealers there are ?....are local WE BUY GOLD/SILVER types increasing or decreasing (you now have publicly-traded pawn shops).....internet registered users, active bidders, sales and auctions.....and other stuff like this.

I'm interested in this too.

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Is the coin collecting hobby GROWING...SHRINKING....or STABLE.....is it sports cards, NFTs, or stamps ?

Also this

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Everything I read is anectdotal or guestimates of an individual with little factual data.  I'd like to see some of the governing bodies and associations pick up the slack.

Yes, and anecdotal is all it will ever be.  No money in chasing this information. down, even assuming it is available.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/12/2023 at 3:28 PM, cladking said:

 .... Why are so many more bicentennial quarters in circulation since the states coins were introduced?  Of course they don't stand out as much any longer so fewer are removed but why are they being released?  Why are they still almost all in high grade?  

[Here's a hopefully palatable "short" answer... the bicentennial quarters were a one-shot deal. What else are coins made for but to be released?  And if they all appear to be in high grade, that's what happens to coins that just sit there until they're released to circulation. The state quarters program was introduced, in part, to stimulate interest in the hobby which needed a boost in the arm after silver was removed and collectors, unlike die-hards, left in droves. To maintain interest, state quarters were released incrementally, a few at a time, over a year or so, until they moved on to possessions and territories. At some point, five-ounce pieces were introduced.]

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/13/2023 at 1:22 PM, zadok said:

.... Heritage stated this past week that coin sales resulted in over 80% of their total revenue,....

Respectfully, citing one source whose revenue streams are derived from the "sales" of coins from disparate parts of the world does little to acknowledge the Grand Master's emphasis on "American numismatics."

[World Colonial]

On 8/13/2023 at 3:32 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Respectfully, citing one source whose revenue streams are derived from the "sales" of coins from disparate parts of the world does little to acknowledge the Grand Master's emphasis on "American numismatics."

The vast majority of Heritage auction volume, both by number of lots and value, is in US coinage.  You'd know this if you had any familiarity with their auction archives. 

It's something like 5-1 US vs. "world" and "ancient" combined.  6-1 US vs. "world".  This is by volume.  It's even more lopsided by value due to the US outlier price level.

Moreover, it's very likely (very, very likely) that the vast majority of "world" volume is also from US based collectors, not elsewhere.  Who do you think is mostly buying and submitting most of this coinage?  Yes, somewhat more graded coins showing up on eBay from non-US sellers and in non-US auctions but a distinct minority.

Edited August 13, 2023 by World Colonial

[Henri Charriere]

All well and good, I am going to suggest oh-so-politely, that the Grand Master pose his Topic question to Mr. Heritage, c/o Mark Feld, for a definitive response.  

[World Colonial]

On 8/13/2023 at 4:11 PM, Henri Charriere said:

All well and good, I am going to suggest oh-so-politely, that the Grand Master pose his Topic question to Mr. Heritage, c/o Mark Feld, for a definitive response.  

In the past at YE, Heritage used to issue a press release where they broke out their auction volume measured by value for each major category they offer.  This included US and non-US coinage.  I didn't look for 2022 but you can find prior years (2019 or so at minimum) with an internet search.

This will confirm what I told you.

In checking their archives for my last post, I did notice that the count for the UK has gone up noticeably since my last search.  It was just under 40K the last time and now its 52K, about one in every eight "world" coins sold.   I also noticed the gap is closing in the overall ratio (with the US) but it's still lopsided, both by volume and value.  

A low number of countries account for a disproportionate pct. of "world" volume: UK, Germany, Canada, Mexico, China, and France in that order with the UK in the lead by a "country mile", almost twice Germany (including German states) which is marginally ahead of all other except for France. 40% to 45% of the total.

The archives don't provide an option to filter by sale date, and I didn't perform a manual count to try to quantify any change in distribution.  I know the ratio of US vs. "world" in aggregate has decreased somewhat over time, but that's all.

Heritage has Hong Kong based sales occasionally, so I assume much or maybe most of the more expensive Chinese and Hong Kong (colonial) coinage is consigned by locals since these sales commenced.  I also infer that Heritage receives major European collections in the Netherlands, any other offices they have there, or any agents if they have any.  Mostly though, that this coinage is consigned by and bought by US based collectors.

Note, the last paragraph is an inference, not "fact".

Edited August 13, 2023 by World Colonial

[zadok]

On 8/13/2023 at 4:49 PM, World Colonial said:

In the past at YE, Heritage used to issue a press release where they broke out their auction volume measured by value for each major category they offer.  This included US and non-US coinage.  I didn't look for 2022 but you can find prior years (2019 or so at minimum) with an internet search.

This will confirm what I told you.

In checking their archives for my last post, I did notice that the count for the UK has gone up noticeably since my last search.  It was just under 40K the last time and now its 52K, about one in every eight "world" coins sold.   I also noticed the gap is closing in the overall ratio (with the US) but it's still lopsided, both by volume and value.  

A low number of countries account for a disproportionate pct. of "world" volume: UK, Germany, Canada, Mexico, China, and France in that order with the UK in the lead by a "country mile", almost twice Germany (including German states) which is marginally ahead of all other except for France. 40% to 45% of the total.

The archives don't provide an option to filter by sale date, and I didn't perform a manual count to try to quantify any change in distribution.  I know the ratio of US vs. "world" in aggregate has decreased somewhat over time, but that's all.

Heritage has Hong Kong based sales occasionally, so I assume much or maybe most of the more expensive Chinese and Hong Kong (colonial) coinage is consigned by locals since these sales commenced.  I also infer that Heritage receives major European collections in the Netherlands, any other offices they have there, or any agents if they have any.  Mostly though, that this coinage is consigned by and bought by US based collectors.

Note, the last paragraph is an inference, not "fact".

...ur inferences r fairly close to being actual facts or at least closely aligned with the auction results, my comments were directed to GF's request for "big picture" info as to the numis market...i should amend my %s a bit, i had included currency n bullion into my calculations, coins by themselves would be more closer to 65%of total revenue...in the past some individuals thought that comic books n sports cards were the driver in auction house acquisitions, not true for the most part its still coins, driven by the high US collector market n ur assessment re specialized auctions for the Hong Kong market spot on...there r some here on the forum that have no clue as to the world coin market yet they feel compelled to babble on with no clue bout what they r talking bout...one other area of big money derived thru auctions is obviously the art market, where individual pcs of art bring up to 9 figures, i know very little bout that area, hence i have little to say....

 

...just to add for GF's benefit, of course the highest dollar coin auctioned, '33 saint $20 gold, was sold by Sotheby's usually known for their art auctions....

Edited August 14, 2023 by zadok
added comment

[zadok]

On 8/13/2023 at 9:28 PM, Henri Charriere said:

A psycholinguist asked to review a reply you had posted on an unrelated thread regarding the present whereabouts of the two gold roosters graded on the West Coast at MS-68, and quickly, with no notice, cross-graded successfully on the East Coast, and then withdrawn from public view, concluded the writer, taking the diatribe in its entirety and in context, all but conceded the examples were under his care, custody and control.  I make it a point not to get distracted by world coins. If the three primary expeditors fail to produce a suitable upgrade by 12:01 a.m., January 1, 2024, the matter will be closed. To quote George C. Scott in the 1970 classic war film Patton, to whom was politely pointed out he could not affix additional stars to his official uniform until an act of Congress approved it, he sat back, smiled, and told Karl C. Malden: "Congress has its schedule, and I have mine."  Same here...

...as usual, more incoherent babble totally unrelated to the thread...the NFL has their Mr. Irrelevant we here on the forum r stuck with QA....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/13/2023 at 12:18 PM, RWB said:

Public corporations are required to report certain information. Private entities - as are most in numismatics - have no such responsibility.

Even private companies report key industry data.  Being publicly traded doesn't absolve them of their state and federal reporting requirements.

[RWB]

On 8/14/2023 at 1:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Even private companies report key industry data. 

At their discretion....