Quick serious question, I don't know whether this has been asked before. 0

[Pocket Changer]

If I find a very nice condition modern coin, let's say 1970's or even early 80's, obviously they aren't worth anything now. But because of that, doesn't that mean that collectors aren't paying these coins much heed, and therefore they are being thrown back into circulation and getting eroded, dirtied, worn out etc. That would mean then, that in a hundred years these coins that are now worthless as they are so plentiful in high grades, might become quite scarce and valuable in a hundred years? I know in the early 60's people were hoarding coins, leading to the coin shortage and the coin freeze; I'm not saying we should hoard modern coins. I'm just wondering whether this thread of logic makes sense, because then I would potentially keep nice modern coins that I find, and stow them away for future use.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

I think there is nothing wrong with saving nice looking coins from circulation and putting them in an album.  I do this, and I think many others do, too.  However, the idea of them being valuable (now or in the future) is perhaps bullish.  First, think about how many coins of those 1970s-1980s dates are already in TPG holders.  Next think about all of the mint sets that people still have laying around unopened.  My point is that there are a LOT of coins from the 70-80s that are in very nice condition.

This doesn't mean that you shouldn't pull a nice shiny coin from circulation with a smile... but, don't quit your day job.

Edited March 26, 2023 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[powermad5000]

I used to ask myself this very question. And I eventually came up with my own answer to it. Lets take a coin from the past. An 1880 (P) Morgan dollar. It is now over 100 years old. Its mintage was 12,600,000. It is not clear how many were melted down in the Pittman act of 1918. In MS 64, which is still a nice coin, it is priced around $100 today. And it is made of silver.

Fast forward to a 1980 Lincoln cent. The mintage number was 7,414,705,000. It was made of brass. Being there were so many made, and the population of collectors growing as well as US Mint promoting the collection of coins through various means (not to mention the now YouTube video watcher craze that has everybody looking at every coin for the most minor imperfection claiming said face value coin is now worth a million dollars plus), I believe between the amount minted, and the quantity of collectors growing each year who are pulling these 1980 cents out of circulation immediately, will make high grade specimens easily obtainable 100 years from now, but will also make the said value of these coins across the hundred years to be much of a flat line with maybe a small step up ($0.50) in value at the 100 year mark. Back to the Lincoln, I believe in 100 years, when you mention a 1980 Lincoln cent, you will have collectors that say, "Eh. I got a full roll of them still brand new never unwrapped." (I was given a full roll of 1957 Lincoln Wheats by my grandmother who worked at a large Chicago bank when I was a child and never opened the roll till recently. I sent the best two in for grading and both came back MS 65 RD. Point is I have 48 of these in MS 65 RD and it is 75 years from when they were made but the roll isn't going to help me retire early).

Even if we step up to the 1980 P Susan B Anthony dollar, with mintage of 27,610,000, the whole Susan B. series died out because it was not popular with the public. Even with the passing of 100 years, I don't see there being a boom in popularity of these coins. And that lack of demand will keep the value line over time flat. 

So, my long winded explanation to your quick question would be summarized in laymen's terms as follows : Collecting rules involving mintage amount and demand, the two drivers of value, will still be similar 100 years from now. Modern coins from the 70's and 80's (exceptions of already collectible varieties such as say the 72 DDO Lincoln, 1982 No P Roosevelt Dime, 1982 P No FG Kennedy Half, 1979 P Susan B Anthony Wide Rim), will not see either a rise in demand, or a rise in value 100 years from now.

[Sandon]

   The U.S. mint sold over a million--and in some years well over two million--uncirculated coin or "mint" sets every year from 1968 through 2003, except for 1982 and 1983, when no mint sets were offered. These sets provide an ample supply of most issues of circulating coinage from those years in uncirculated condition, without regard to however many rolls and bags of these coins were also saved by collectors and dealers. The numbers sold of these sets has dwindled substantially since then, with only a few hundred thousand sets sold annually in recent years. Additionally, the coins in mint sets from 2005 through 2010 have a "matte finish" and are collected by some as separate issues from circulating coinage. The mint now sells large quantities of uncirculated commemorative quarters, modern dollars, and Kennedy half dollars in rolls and bags, but the cents and particularly the nickels and dimes minted since 2005, with the exception of certain issues such as 2005 nickels and 2009 cents that were hoarded, may end up having a lower survival rate as uncirculated coins than their predecessors. Still, I doubt that any of these coins will be worth a premium in any circulated grade, at least during any of our lifetimes.

   If you want to save modern coins with any hope of seeing any appreciation during your lifetime, you should try to obtain the mentioned denominations made since 2005 in uncirculated condition. You can try to obtain such coins for the current or recent years as change from new rolls from cashiers or from bank rolls.  You can also purchase mint sets notwithstanding the high premium now charged for them or try to purchase individual coins or rolls from dealers.

   

[Coinbuf]

Your question has a number of what if's, and unknown variables to answer.   First what does "very nice condition" mean to you?   AU, MS63, MS68, very nice condition may very well mean something very different to you than to myself.   Second you seem to assume that people will still collect coins in the future, they very well may do so (and I hope so) but that is not a known event.   The government is working and planning to move to a cashless society in the near future, so coins may only continue to be made to sell to collectors vs for use in circulating commerce.   If or when that happens all the coins produced and sold will be of very high quality, in fact it might be more valuable to find coins produced under that scenario that are worn as opposed to high grade coins.

As has already been pointed out, many common date high mintage coins of the past two centuries trade at or close to the spot value of the metal they are made from in the lower MS and AU grades.   Those are the type of coins you are most likely to pull from circulation, while not impossible to find the occasional high grade coin (by that I am talking MS68 or better) from your pocket, it is very rare.   Most very high grade modern coins come from mint sets or rolls of coins that never reached circulation, not from pocket change.

Another variable you seem to have left out is the time value of money.   With our current hyper inflation just in the time it took me to write this post the change in my pocket has less purchasing power, ok slight hyperbole but you get my point.   Coins of the previous centuries had real value because they were produced from a precious valuable metal, todays coins are made from base metals with no real value over the face value of the minted coin.   Chances are very high that if you hold vast quantities of todays coinage you will actually be losing value and purchasing power into the future.   And do not forget the physical storage it takes to save quantities of coins, I don't have it on my computer but there is a photo that I have seen posted on the PCGS forum of a guy that saved tons of cents.   He posted the photo of his garage full of 55 gallon plastic barrels each full to the top of cents, I cannot even imagine the cost to store and possibly move such a quantity of coins.

Coin collecting is a personal journey, and if saving lots of "pocket change" makes you happy then great do that, but if you are thinking that doing so is somehow a good storage of value or that you will be hailed as the savior of modern coinage, well that might be a stretch.    If your goal is to provide future wealth for your family then depositing your pocket change into an interest bearing account or getting a second job and putting those funds into a SPY fund will likely provide a much better return than searching and holding onto lots of modern change.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Coinbuf

[JKK]

On 3/26/2023 at 10:32 AM, Coinbuf said:

If your goal is to provide future wealth for your family then depositing your pocket change into an interest bearing account or getting a second job and putting those funds into a SPY fund will likely provide a much better return than searching and holding onto lots of modern change.

And there it is. If it's all about building wealth, without precious metals involved, the question is whether one believes that markets will return 9-11% over their investment horizon (more if one is younger or has a greater volatility tolerance, and goes with small-cap index ETFs). If one says no, that won't happen, then that's one thing (and opens other cans of worms). If one says yes, that's reasonable to expect, then the question is how the coin could possibly be expected to appreciate in similar fashion (including the reinvested dividends that such ETFs will offer). That's the eyes-wide-open approach--if it's really about a nest egg. One might do well to take the value of a typical 1940 Lincoln cent, say EF, and determine its value today if it were set aside in, say, 1958 when the memorial reverse changed the type.

[World Colonial]

@Coinbufprovided a comprehensive explanation.

I'll just add that these coins are likely a lot more common than the OP infers now and assuming collecting resembles anything like it does now indefinitely into the future, will still be (very) common later.  Collectors today are a lot more aware of proper storage and presumably will better preserve whatever supply exists now into the future versus the past.

Second, this coinage has the lowest aggregate preference among US coinage.  It's the perception toward the collective coin attributes which isn't a coincidence either.

Third, scarcity alone doesn't make a coin a lot more valuable, especially when this scarcity will still likely make it a lot more common than the vast majority of coins currently existing.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/26/2023 at 9:23 AM, Sandon said:

   The U.S. mint sold over a million--and in some years well over two million--uncirculated coin or "mint" sets every year from 1968 through 2003, except for 1982 and 1983, when no mint sets were offered.

Why was that ? 

None at all....wow. 

[GoldFinger1969]

As we have discussed ad nauseum....coins are NOT an investment.  Very few people can generate returns even within striking distance of equities or a balance portfolio.  A few savvy numismatists here and in our profession are able to buy-and-hold or buy-and-sell and generate some great returns. 

They are the exception, like the daytrader who consistently wins, or the slot machine player at Vegas or Atlantic City.