Trophy Coin Thread For Future PowerBall/MegaMillions Winners 0

[GoldFinger1969]

I thought this article talking about the post-2020 price explosion in Trophy Coins by Doug Winters was fantastic and very interesting even though I don't really look too closely at the smaller gold coins esp. pre-1900:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/10/18/the-million-dollar-liberty-head-eagle

"Before the Trophy Coin Era (which really began in earnest around 2020), the price of rare coins went up incrementally. A coin like an AU 1875 eagle was worth $150k in the 2000s, $250k in the early 2010s, and $350k in the early 2020s. Given its price history, one would have expected the next price increment for this date to have been $450k (maybe even $500k) in 2022. But this isn’t how values work today, and as a result we have yet another record price which is multiples higher than the previous peak of $372,000."

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

Doug Winters blog has some great insights into various areas of the coin market.  Even though I often am not interested in the particular coins, it's good from a macro perspective to see where the $$$ are flowing.  He has good insight.

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog?category=Market Blog

His column on the Bass Part 1 sale was great.  Unreal that Harry Bass bought an 1860 Liberty Double Eagle (PCGS PR 65+ CAMEO/CAC) for $2,200 in 1970 and held it for 53 years !!!  Realized $1MM ex-bp; that's 12.5% a year which is one of the highest returns for a major coin I can recall.  Usually, the returns are mid-single digits.

Edited December 20, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

I've read Doug Winter's articles on Coin Week but never on anything other than US classic gold.  

The 1870-CC DE and 1875 eagle are somewhat well-known rarities in US collecting (mostly from the Red Book).  Usually, he writes about low mintage dates or dates with relatively low survivorship which he considers underpriced.  Much of his presentation is based upon the TPG label and he's also big on CAC stickers since both are a big financial driver.

Mostly, I have never read him give an actual reason why these coins should be worth substantially more.  Since he writes on so many coins, apparently, he thinks all of these should be worth (a lot) more.

On any list of potential "trophy" US coins that should or deserve to sell for a lot more, mine will have little if any overlap with his.

[zadok]

On 12/20/2022 at 9:34 PM, World Colonial said:

I've read Doug Winter's articles on Coin Week but never on anything other than US classic gold.  

The 1870-CC DE and 1875 eagle are somewhat well-known rarities in US collecting (mostly from the Red Book).  Usually, he writes about low mintage dates or dates with relatively low survivorship which he considers underpriced.  Much of his presentation is based upon the TPG label and he's also big on CAC stickers since both are a big financial driver.

Mostly, I have never read him give an actual reason why these coins should be worth substantially more.  Since he writes on so many coins, apparently, he thinks all of these should be worth (a lot) more.

On any list of potential "trophy" US coins that should or deserve to sell for a lot more, mine will have little if any overlap with his.

...actually in his books on the various gold series n mints that he does research on he goes date by date n not just the trophy dates...he does give his findings on the survival coins in the higher grades n some discussion on die varieties, his books on the gold series r most useful when comparing relative rarity between dates thru both mintages n survival examples...the reader can draw their own conclusions on market value....

[World Colonial]

On 12/21/2022 at 8:44 AM, zadok said:

...actually in his books on the various gold series n mints that he does research on he goes date by date n not just the trophy dates...he does give his findings on the survival coins in the higher grades n some discussion on die varieties, his books on the gold series r most useful when comparing relative rarity between dates thru both mintages n survival examples...the reader can draw their own conclusions on market value....

I've seen this approach in his articles but he's also putting a positive spin on it financially.  I agree with the perception for the earlier dates up to 1834, mostly.  It's the Liberty Head low mintage dates where I do not.  There are too many and only a few have the distinction he implies.

Recently, I was looking at some with somewhat low mintages and the TPG pops are a low fraction of the widgets.  The premiums to melt on recent sales are somewhat more 50% to 100% in AU, depending upon date.

OK, so they are somewhat cheap for the relative scarcity.

Other than an increasing gold price, are there really going to be enough additional buyers to increase the price noticeably?

I doubt it.  The series is too expensive and too scarce where a meaningful enough increase in the collector base will likely occur.  The coins I am referring to aren't likely to be candidates as type coins either because most prefer a higher quality one.  (The higher grades are hardly cheap now.)

I'll watch these, but I'm not really interested in it for collecting purposes, only as an alternative to bullion.  I may buy a book too.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2022 at 9:34 PM, World Colonial said:

I've read Doug Winter's articles on Coin Week but never on anything other than US classic gold.  The 1870-CC DE and 1875 eagle are somewhat well-known rarities in US collecting (mostly from the Red Book).  Usually, he writes about low mintage dates or dates with relatively low survivorship which he considers underpriced.  Much of his presentation is based upon the TPG label and he's also big on CAC stickers since both are a big financial driver.

Mostly, I have never read him give an actual reason why these coins should be worth substantially more.  Since he writes on so many coins, apparently, he thinks all of these should be worth (a lot) more.  On any list of potential "trophy" US coins that should or deserve to sell for a lot more, mine will have little if any overlap with his.

He says that many coins are overpriced, including ones he bid on but dropped out.

He wrote a really good piece a year ago that revisited a column he wrote in 2010.  Basically, he went over what he said at the time and checked how accurate his comments were.  I personally LOVE columns like this, they serve as a kind of Truth-O-Meter on your posts.

Here's what he wrote on the 1857-S in 2010 and then again in 2021:

1857-S/2010: The discovery of more than 5,000 high quality examples on the S.S. Central America is what really jump-started the market for Type One double eagles. There are hundreds of collectors who started out buying a single Uncirculated 1857-S and then became hooked by the Type One series. I've noted some confusion about proper valuation for these coins. As an example, there is a CDN Bid of $7,200 for MS64 examples. This bid represents the value of a coin in a gold foil holder with the original box. An NGC MS64, which is clearly a coin that was broken out of a PCGS holder and likely upgraded, is worth less than this; in some cases as much as 10%. As a collector, if you pay a strong retail price for an Uncirculated 1857-S double eagle, try to be patient and wait for a nice quality piece in the original PCGS holder.

1857-S/2021:  I can’t add much to what I wrote 10 years ago about this date. It is interesting to look at very high-grade SSCA 1857-S double eagles. In 2010 a CAC approved PCGS MS66 in its original packaging would have cost around $35,000. Today, a similar coin would cost around $30,000. There haven’t been a ton of PCGS/CAC MS67s which have sold, but the most recent APR was just $96,000; down considerably from a 2014 auction record of $152,750 and even $120,000 in January 2020. A remarkable $282,000 was paid for a wildly toned PCGS/CAC MS67 in May 2019. In my opinion, this was a huge overpay for a coin which I felt, at the time, was worth around $150,000. 

Complete article here:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/articles/san-fsan-francisco-double-eagles-a-date-by-date-analysis-part-one

Edited December 21, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 12/21/2022 at 9:56 AM, World Colonial said:

I've seen this approach in his articles but he's also putting a positive spin on it financially.  I agree with the perception for the earlier dates up to 1834, mostly.  It's the Liberty Head low mintage dates where I do not.  There are too many and only a few have the distinction he implies.

Recently, I was looking at some with somewhat low mintages and the TPG pops are a low fraction of the widgets.  The premiums to melt on recent sales are somewhat more 50% to 100% in AU, depending upon date.

OK, so they are somewhat cheap for the relative scarcity.

Other than an increasing gold price, are there really going to be enough additional buyers to increase the price noticeably?

I doubt it.  The series is too expensive and too scarce where a meaningful enough increase in the collector base will likely occur.  The coins I am referring to aren't likely to be candidates as type coins either because most prefer a higher quality one.  (The higher grades are hardly cheap now.)

I'll watch these, but I'm not really interested in it for collecting purposes, only as an alternative to bullion.  I may buy a book too.

...i think u r out of touch with the actual collectors for these series...most of the collectors in these series that i know, n those that r in the pcgs n ngc registries, r very aggressive buyers n the auction results support this...im talking coins in the AU-MS grades which r the coins that Doug is addressing in his books that r extremely difficult to find n even more difficult to buy...there r often 20+ bidders for these coins, a 50%-100% over melt would be considered extremely cheap, i often have to pay 2000% premium over melt to acquire coins i want or more...in fact melt value doesnt even enter into my consideration for what im willing to pay for the coins i need, its more of a "buy it now or u may never see it again" process...i am an aggressive buyer n my success rate in these series is less than 20% at auctions n i can afford to bid aggressively, there r many collectors in these series n more coming into this market every year...just as an example the $5 liberty series has 225 coins in it n i am aware of many collectors attempting to complete the entire series n gold melt value is not a factor, its the comparative rarity that Doug addresses that is the driving force....

[World Colonial]

On 12/21/2022 at 10:19 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

He says that many coins are overpriced, including ones he bid on but dropped out.

He wrote a really good piece a year ago that revisited a column he wrote in 2010.  Basically, he went over what he said at the time and checked how accurate his comments were.  I personally LOVE columns like this, they serve as a kind of Truth-O-Meter on your posts.

The 1857-S is now a hoard coin.  I don't remember when SS Central America supply became available.  Admitting a hoard coin lost value is hardly an example of objectivity.

I haven't read his website commentary, though I presume it's the same as Coin Week.  I can't imagine he writes different material for both.

I can't say he's never expressed a non-positive opinion on any coin, but it's not going to be often.  Look, I wouldn't expect him to do it.  He's in the business of selling coins.  Same thing for the hyperbole expressed by other dealers.  I just ignore what I consider to be marketing.

[World Colonial]

On 12/21/2022 at 11:37 AM, zadok said:

...i think u r out of touch with the actual collectors for these series...most of the collectors in these series that i know, n those that r in the pcgs n ngc registries, r very aggressive buyers n the auction results support this...im talking coins in the AU-MS grades which r the coins that Doug is addressing in his books that r extremely difficult to find n even more difficult to buy...there r often 20+ bidders for these coins, a 50%-100% over melt would be considered extremely cheap, i often have to pay 2000% premium over melt to acquire coins i want or more...in fact melt value doesnt even enter into my consideration for what im willing to pay for the coins i need, its more of a "buy it now or u may never see it again" process...i am an aggressive buyer n my success rate in these series is less than 20% at auctions n i can afford to bid aggressively, there r many collectors in these series n more coming into this market every year...just as an example the $5 liberty series has 225 coins in it n i am aware of many collectors attempting to complete the entire series n gold melt value is not a factor, its the comparative rarity that Doug addresses that is the driving force....

We must be talking about different dates/MM.  The coins I am referring to aren't scarce, just a scarcer than the most common ones.  The TPG pops are near (maybe somewhat below) to somewhat over 1000.

An example is the 1898-S.  Heritage sold two this month in AU-58 for about $1K.  Low MS for slightly more a little earlier.

I am aware that actually scarce semi-key dates don't fit the profile in my last post.

[VKurtB]

On 12/21/2022 at 10:50 AM, World Colonial said:

The 1857-S is now a hoard coin.  I don't remember when SS Central America supply became available.  Admitting a hoard coin lost value is hardly an example of objectivity.

I haven't read his website commentary, though I presume it's the same as Coin Week.  I can't imagine he writes different material for both.

I can't say he's never expressed a non-positive opinion on any coin, but it's not going to be often.  Look, I wouldn't expect him to do it.  He's in the business of selling coins.  Same thing for the hyperbole expressed by other dealers.  I just ignore what I consider to be marketing.

Wow! You sure do have a lot of literature to ignore! It’s pretty much all marketing. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/21/2022 at 11:50 AM, World Colonial said:

The 1857-S is now a hoard coin.  I don't remember when SS Central America supply became available.  Admitting a hoard coin lost value is hardly an example of objectivity. I haven't read his website commentary, though I presume it's the same as Coin Week.  I can't imagine he writes different material for both. I can't say he's never expressed a non-positive opinion on any coin, but it's not going to be often.  Look, I wouldn't expect him to do it.  He's in the business of selling coins.  Same thing for the hyperbole expressed by other dealers.  I just ignore what I consider to be marketing.

The SSCA coins came out about  2000-2003.  The 1857-S really opened up the Type 1 Double Eagle market as lots of people wanted an 1857-S and if they did get one (or not) they learned about other Type 1's (and 2s, and 3s, and even probably Saints) and branched out.  This is how I got interested in the SSCA and later bought a re-strike (should have paid more for an actual coin  ).

The 1857-S showed in some rare instances that a new amount of supply CAN create demand and spur interest in that coin as well as others.

I think what has hurt pricing since then isn't the supply, it was just that the coins got ahead of themselve and the premium valuations had to come down a bit.

[World Colonial]

On 12/21/2022 at 3:59 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think what has hurt pricing since then isn't the supply, it was just that the coins got ahead of themselve and the premium valuations had to come down a bit.

I'd say what hurt the prices after the initial run-up was that the marketing effect wore off.  Common is common, doesn't change that it's associated with romanticized story.

[zadok]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:01 PM, World Colonial said:

We must be talking about different dates/MM.  The coins I am referring to aren't scarce, just a scarcer than the most common ones.  The TPG pops are near (maybe somewhat below) to somewhat over 1000.

An example is the 1898-S.  Heritage sold two this month in AU-58 for about $1K.  Low MS for slightly more a little earlier.

I am aware that actually scarce semi-key dates don't fit the profile in my last post.

...the later dates plentiful in MS n common for most dates, few scarce...most in the $5 example round $1000 in lower ms grades but escalate rapidly for the registry buyers in high grades...the earlier truly scarcer dates the sky is the limit...i just bid on a $5 in heritage, a $14K coin n it sold $27K plus the juice n i wasnt even the underbidder....

[zadok]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:44 PM, VKurtB said:

Wow! You sure do have a lot of literature to ignore! It’s pretty much all marketing. 

...comparative analysis of rarity n auction results n frequency of appearances on the market is a bit more than marketing....of course those facts do go to supporting marketing but making the info available to collectors so they can make their own decisions is beneficial to the hobby....

[Henri Charriere]

Q.A.:  All this talk of trophies is making me bleary eyed.  The way I see it, all we have to do is one thing.

🐓:  What's that?

Q.A.:  Win the Mega Millions.  I hear it's up to $640 million.  And the drawing is tomorrow nite.

🐓 :  Bet!

[USAuPzlBxBob]

The first rare gold coin I ever collected was my AU53 1881 CC $10, purchased ten years ago for $1,000 more than NGC was listing it as.  (at the time I knew nothing about rare coins)

A year later it bounced up to my buy price and stayed thereabouts until October 2021, when it soared $2,100 overnight, and it is now bouncing around twice my buy price.

Not just the $500K coins have shot up in price the last couple of years.  As all ships rise with a rising tide, now, more than this, just locating desirable coins has affected collecting strategies in a big way.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/14/2023 at 2:46 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

Not just the $500K coins have shot up in price the last couple of years.  As all ships rise with a rising tide, now, more than this, just locating desirable coins has affected collecting strategies in a big way.

The lower-priced stuff rose more during Covid....folks with stay-at-home paychecks and government checks spent it on stuff they could afford, mostly $50 - $1,000 stuff. 

Higher-priced didn't rise as much whether coins, bullion, or paper money.

[VKurtB]

On 12/21/2022 at 3:41 PM, World Colonial said:

I'd say what hurt the prices after the initial run-up was that the marketing effect wore off.  Common is common, doesn't change that it's associated with romanticized story.

Romanticized stories are GREAT for competitive exhibits. Not so much for lasting value. 

[MarkFeld]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:48 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I thought this article talking about the post-2020 price explosion in Trophy Coins by Doug Winters was fantastic and very interesting even though I don't really look too closely at the smaller gold coins esp. pre-1900:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/10/18/the-million-dollar-liberty-head-eagle

"Before the Trophy Coin Era (which really began in earnest around 2020), the price of rare coins went up incrementally. A coin like an AU 1875 eagle was worth $150k in the 2000s, $250k in the early 2010s, and $350k in the early 2020s. Given its price history, one would have expected the next price increment for this date to have been $450k (maybe even $500k) in 2022. But this isn’t how values work today, and as a result we have yet another record price which is multiples higher than the previous peak of $372,000."

 

 

Doug Winter (not Doug “Winters”) is extremely knowledgeable and a great writer.