Is there a hobby/business need for a technically stable independent authentication and grading company? 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2022 at 9:22 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

This is no longer true. Fair Market Value is a myth.  Prices at auctions are skewed by fanatics who want or need coins at any price. It takes only one person to up-end a market for no other reason than they can, and many years to recover.  None of the top-tier gold Roosters I seek are rare; they are simply unavailable [presumably at an unextortortionate price.

That's still true even if it is UNFAIR.  No doubt, 1 or 2 or 3 heavy-hitters with Big $$$ can skew a previously smoothly functioning coin market and price.  That's the risk that we all run.

I get what you are saying, yet at the same time...NOBODY complains when the same heavy-hitters will skew prices upward for stuff they ALREADY own. 

On 12/20/2022 at 9:22 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Purely speculative.  How long did it take presumably educated people to get involved in crypto?  How quick were they to par with gheir money lacking even fundamental knowledge of the product they were "investing" in? Picture yourself being asked, If you buy this coin today, it will return over 12% interest in a half-century?  This is the age of credit and instant gratification. 

With crypto people were trying to make $$$.  Hopefully, that isn't the case with coins or bullion.  Nobody "enjoys" investing in crypto or BitCoin.  You should enjoy this hobby and the thrill of the chase and finding and reading about rare coins and coins you want in your own personal collection. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:42 AM, World Colonial said:

Look at your own collecting profile.  I have never read any post indicating that you have any interest in "collector" coinage.  You've mentioned buying Saints, Morgans, modern US NCLT, and maybe classic commemoratives.  I don't recall you mentioning anything else, and your collecting preferences seem to be typical of these buyers.

There are no absolutes, but the anecdotal evidence seems to support that those whose primary interest is NCLT will overwhelmingly spend comparable or larger amounts on equivalent numismatic coins, like Saints and Morgans.  I've never seen any data on those who focus on pre-1933 gold or Morgans, but I'm quite confident they aren't switching to base metal or smaller silver coinage in any meaningful numbers. Two entirely different types of buyers.

I always considered myself unique but maybe I'm not. 

Look, could I see myself spending $250 on a really nice Lincoln Penny or Jeffereson or Buffalo Nickel or some quarter just to add to my collection ?  Sure....but I would be shocked if I added more than 1 or 2 more in my lifetime.  Not so the other 4 categories you listed above.

[VKurtB]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:37 AM, Just Bob said:

And yet, that is exactly what has happened with grading standards. Market grading is accepted because the majority, or at least the vocal minority, wants it.

The majority do. And for good reason: technical grading was useless. 
 

“Why is this coin priced at X, when this much prettier one is priced at (X-75)?”

”You see that mark by Liberty’s nose? That’s why.”

”This sh*t be whack!”

Enter market grading.

Edited December 20, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:37 PM, Just Bob said:

And yet, that is exactly what has happened with grading standards. Market grading is accepted because the majority, or at least the vocal minority, wants it.

I don't think it was the average coin collector; if anybody, maybe the dealers.

[VKurtB]

On 12/20/2022 at 2:32 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Nobody "enjoys" investing in crypto or BitCoin.

Really? They keep doing this out of FOMO? Psychopaths, all of them. Get them to a shrink. Pronto. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/20/2022 at 2:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I always considered myself unique but maybe I'm not. 

Look, could I see myself spending $250 on a really nice Lincoln Penny or Jeffereson or Buffalo Nickel or some quarter just to add to my collection ?  Sure....but I would be shocked if I added more than 1 or 2 more in my lifetime.  Not so the other 4 categories you listed above.

Don’t kid yourself. You are as unique as they come. You STARTED with 1 ounce gold?!?!? You da unicorn for sure!!!

[RWB]

"Value" is not part of the condition, "grade", of a coin or medal, or baseball card, or used car.

[VKurtB]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:45 PM, RWB said:

"Value" is not part of the condition, "grade", of a coin or medal, or baseball card, or used car.

If you’re okay with the lower graded coin being more valuable than the higher, you and I are just different species. I ONLY WANT market grading. Without being intimately tied to value, grading is valueless. See what I did there? Oh, I don’t give a darn what the sports cards or comic book people do. I don’t touch those. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by VKurtB

[CaptHenway]

On 12/18/2022 at 7:48 AM, RWB said:

That's what I thought when ANA began grading....then they sold out and had their backbone removed. Now it's every centipede for itself.

Hey, I began the ANA grading service in 1979. We stayed as consistent as possible until I left in the Summer of 1984. This meant that during the hot market of 1979-1980 everybody was whining that we were undergrading because in a hot market anything goes and everybody knew that the market grading standards were going to be even looser next week, and during the cold market of 1981-on the same people were whining that we were overgrading because the market grading standards had tightened up like "The Incredible Shrinking Jockstrap" even though WE had not changed our standards. It was the market grading that was rubbery.

 

I am not responsible for anything that happened after the Summer of 1984. Are you talking about the ANA selling ANACS around 1989?

 

TD

[VKurtB]

On 12/21/2022 at 2:21 PM, CaptHenway said:

Hey, I began the ANA grading service in 1979. We stayed as consistent as possible until I left in the Summer of 1984. This meant that during the hot market of 1979-1980 everybody was whining that we were undergrading because in a hot market anything goes and everybody knew that the market grading standards were going to be even looser next week, and during the cold market of 1981-on the same people were whining that we were overgrading because the market grading standards had tightened up like "The Incredible Shrinking Jockstrap" even though WE had not changed our standards. It was the market grading that was rubbery.

 

I am not responsible for anything that happened after the Summer of 1984. Are you talking about the ANA selling ANACS around 1989?

 

TD

Was it THAT late that Amos Press took over ANACS?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:47 AM, RWB said:

Keep sending it in until you get the grade your want. Do they tell you the differences between 66+ and 67 --- I'll wager "No." It's also likely they can't differentiate between the two better than 50% -- mere coin flipping (pun intended).

So why even come up with the "+" or star designations in the first place ?  You'd have LESS gradeflation if there no plusses, IMO.  Much easier to upgrade a 66+ than a 66.

[VKurtB]

As soon as you accept the truth that “they” are a different panel of 3 each time you send in a coin, this stuff bothers you less and less. That said, I send in DIFFERENT coins - frequently SIMILAR, but different. I expect to be surprised. The biggest surprise the last few years is I’m surprised how rarely I’m surprised by a grade my coins get, and usually I’m surprised on the high side. I’ve underinsured badly several times. ¡Caramba! I haven’t gotten an “oh darn” coin in several years. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:37 AM, Just Bob said:

And yet, that is exactly what has happened with grading standards. Market grading is accepted because the majority, or at least the vocal minority, wants it.

My view is only the old sticks in the mud DON’T want market grading. Paleos, I call them. Sclerotics is a new term I’m trying out. In my view, grading has done nothing but improve over time. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by VKurtB

[zadok]

...grading...grading, the degree of wear on a coin, served the hobby fairly well for nearly a century, but the hobby decided that grading wasnt what it wanted or needed...so we "evolved" into market grading, what the hobby (read dealers) decided it needed n wanted...as with all aspects of society, what Lola wants Lola gets, until she doesnt want it anymore...should be interesting to see just what the grading standards of the new CAC TPG decides the hobby needs n wants?....

[Henri Charriere]

@RWB:

It's late, the moderators are gone, maybe I can speak freely...

The answer to your Topic question is yes, but what grader would dare answer this question?  Would he even have an inkling as to what you were inferring?

All I know is what I see in my tiny corner of the world.  A dump of gold Roosters of unknown origin was gone over with a fine-toothed comb.  Those that held promise were set aside.  Those that didn't were treated like the bullion pieces they are and always will be.

I have been watching the censuses and populations on both sides.  I noticed that the three exquisite MS-66's I offered a collector for his Top Pop MS-65 on the East Side, no longer boasts that recognition factor on the West Side.  A finer specimen has since superseded his. Naturally, his coin, in my view----I couldn't care less what the white-shoe law firm types think----is worth less.  Why?  Because there is something better out there.  

When I send my WANT LISTS in, to a dozen different likely stewards---- everybody has his price, apparently, except me---I always include the note: "when it becomes available."  Half-grades mean nothing to me; it signifies an upgrade is inevitable.  Stars?  I know what starred bank-notes signify, but the starred coin's significance lies solely in the eyes of the beholder.

I would like to see what you propose (as gleaned from your query) come to fruition and it may when the up-and-coming younger market, fickle as ever, demands it.  In my case, it will be interesting to see what the FMV becomes for something that hasn't even been certified by anyone... as of yet.  Incidentally, someone's got those two '68's and I aim to find out who if it's the last thing I do.

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Routine die polishing.

[GoldFinger1969]

I think with PCGS and NGC at the top....with CAC grading the graders and now getting into grading themselves....I just think we're covered enough.

NOBODY is going to be happy with 100% of what we have.  If purists are happy, then dealers and collectors won't be...and vice-versa.  Get rid of all the labeling and marketing and specialization, and folks with special coins will be unhappy.  

[World Colonial]

On 12/22/2022 at 1:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Get rid of all the labeling and marketing and specialization, and folks with special coins will be unhappy.  

Except that hardly any of these coins are actually special.  Creating a pretense of "rarity" and "distinction" through marketing and pricing it as an "investment" doesn't equate to special.  It's a participation trophy just for showing up.

There is nothing wrong with collecting common, ordinary coins.  There aren't actually that many (proportionately) rare, distinctive coins and no reason to expect there would or should be.

I know some here are familiar with what I am talking about, but if you want to get an idea how coins are perceived without this exaggeration, take a look at relative prices prior to the 70's or to a lesser extent, outside the US now.  Most are still common (like the most widely collected 20th century key dates) and easier to buy due to the internet but were still viewed as having actual distinction.

[RWB]

On 12/21/2022 at 3:21 PM, CaptHenway said:

Hey, I began the ANA grading service in 1979. We stayed as consistent as possible until I left in the Summer of 1984. This meant that during the hot market of 1979-1980 everybody was whining that we were undergrading because in a hot market anything goes and everybody knew that the market grading standards were going to be even looser next week, and during the cold market of 1981-on the same people were whining that we were overgrading because the market grading standards had tightened up like "The Incredible Shrinking Jockstrap" even though WE had not changed our standards. It was the market grading that was rubbery.

 

I am not responsible for anything that happened after the Summer of 1984. Are you talking about the ANA selling ANACS around 1989?

 

TD

Yep. And when ANA sold off its baby and then removed its own spine, the entire adventure lost not only its leadership, but its ethical stability. Now....it is corrupt and becoming "corrupter" by the week.

Maybe one of those "deep pocket" people who claim to be collectors will actually fund a "Renaissance of American Coin Grading" where stability, consistency, reliability and absolute honesty are valued for their own benefit and not financial greed. (OK...OK....you can stop laughing out there....We all know that's not going to happen!)

[World Colonial]

On 12/22/2022 at 9:09 PM, RWB said:

Maybe one of those "deep pocket" people who claim to be collectors will actually fund a "Renaissance of American Coin Grading" where stability, consistency, reliability and absolute honesty are valued for their own benefit and not financial greed. (OK...OK....you can stop laughing out there....We all know that's not going to happen!)

Exzcept that I keep hearing it really is (mostly) about collecting.  It's a new "sophistication" that the financialization era buyer has which those uniformed novices lacked in the past.  Same thing for those clueless collectors outside the US now.

[Henri Charriere]

The problem with collectors is money is everything until you start talking about the money they squander on alcohol, tobacco and drugs.  God forbid, a new and improved system would crimp their irresponsible lifestyles.  

My feeling about the proposal is simple, and I have made my views known to TPGs, I want an TRUE objective assessment whether it affects the value upward or downward. Period.

[bstrauss3]

On 12/21/2022 at 3:19 PM, VKurtB said:

Was it THAT late that Amos Press took over ANACS?

You're off by a decade. 1989-1990 was the Amos Aquisition of ANACS.

 

If you go back and read the stuff in the numismatist, you will see that they sold it off because it would have taken a seven-figure investment to make it competitive with the market graders. Which wasn't compatible with the educational mission of the ANA. And because it was hard to justify competing with profit-oriented businesses. But yep, the sale of ANACS ended the last hold out for the ANA Technical Grading Standards.

 

To those up-thread who say we need accurate, consistent grading, let me just point out that there's 30 years of history saying the market doesn't want it.

 

I predict there will be an interesting, um, dynamic around CAC-Grading. With just 3 graders, there's an upper limit to the # of coins they can grade. They certainly seem to hope the riffraff (moderns) won't play, but that's the bulk of the business these days, I don't know how many caught JA's presentation to the LSCC last week, but there's an awful lot he said they don't know yet. This is not a grading service stepping out, fully formed, from the Oyster Shell like Venus. If everyone is expecting a miraculous cure for all the ills of today's TPGs, it will be a bumpy ride.

 

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/24/2022 at 8:45 PM, bstrauss3 said:

To those up-thread who say we need accurate, consistent grading, let me just point out that there's 30 years of history saying the market doesn't want it.

I'm far from an expert on grading standards so maybe I am out of my element....but if the major issue (not ONLY one, but MAJOR issue) that the advocates of technical grading have is that market grading leads to GRADEFLATION then I think that can be corrected sans having to re-do standards. 

I know WHEN market grading is alleged to have usurped technical grading -- early-2000's -- but I'm not sure HOW or WHY.  Was it just some coins overgraded and then others had to be given the same or similar grade lest you have inconsistency among coins ?  You tell me.

From what I have read from oldtimers or market veterans, it we were on a strict technical grading standard you'd have many coins graded lower on an absolute basis but their RELATIVE ranks might be unchanged for the most part.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/24/2022 at 8:45 PM, bstrauss3 said:

I predict there will be an interesting, um, dynamic around CAC-Grading. With just 3 graders, there's an upper limit to the # of coins they can grade. They certainly seem to hope the riffraff (moderns) won't play, but that's the bulk of the business these days, I don't know how many caught JA's presentation to the LSCC last week, but there's an awful lot he said they don't know yet. This is not a grading service stepping out, fully formed, from the Oyster Shell like Venus. If everyone is expecting a miraculous cure for all the ills of today's TPGs, it will be a bumpy ride.

I thought as much.  What did JA say that was noteworthy ?

I wonder about the business model....dumping CAC stickering....presumably not going to pursue moderns...how many classics do they think they can grab from the established TPGs ?

I hope he has a better label than the preliminary one floating around on the forums. 

[VKurtB]

I guess it’s time for another slab shape, or will they be ovals with the same length to width ratio as CAC beans? Too hideous to imagine. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/24/2022 at 7:45 PM, bstrauss3 said:

To those up-thread who say we need accurate, consistent grading, let me just point out that there's 30 years of history saying the market doesn't want it.

Don’t you know that what the market wants is irrelevant? Only what Roger wants matters. I would have thought you’d have figured that out by now. The World According to Roger. That’s nirvana. 
 

There is a Garp-like thing going on there. 

[zadok]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:46 AM, VKurtB said:

Don’t you know that what the market wants is irrelevant? Only what Roger wants matters. I would have thought you’d have figured that out by now. The World According to Roger. That’s nirvana. 
 

There is a Garp-like thing going on there. 

...im just going to wait for the "Renaissance of the Renaissance: Why coins are Round and Flat" to come out with "excerpts from mint directors squibble notes and margin sketches..." then ill have all i need to know bout how to collect coins....

[VKurtB]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:42 AM, zadok said:

...im just going to wait for the "Renaissance of the Renaissance: Why coins are Round and Flat" to come out with "excerpts from mint directors squibble notes and margin sketches..." then ill have all i need to know bout how to collect coins....

Not “Why Anything After 1986 Stinks”? That’s the subtext of it all, you know. Or “1984: Missed It by THAT Much”? With a foreword by Maxwell Smart. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/24/2022 at 8:45 PM, bstrauss3 said:

...To those up-thread who say we need accurate, consistent grading, let me just point out that there's 30 years of history saying the market doesn't want it....

Respectfully, as an, ahem, up-threader, I should like to go on record as saying all this talk of what the market wants and doesn't want is hooey, plain and simple. 

Nobody knows if an Edsel or a New Coke or two guys singing "Macarena," are going to go over big, or become one-hit wonders.

I happen to wholeheartedly agree with the gentleman given to speaking ex cathedra, but for reason.  Case in point:  what is the FMV of the much-vaunted 1933 DE?  Nobody will know what it is until when (and if) it ever comes up for sale.  Will NGCX make it?  Your guess is as good as mine.  As the average age of hobbyists (collectors, hoarders, investors and closeted lurkers) is 97 (based on photographs supplied by on-site coin-show groupies) I think it responsible to say the only credible answer is "that remains to be seen.

The "market," should it rears its head, is in a state of perpetual flux. What exactly is demand?  It's anything the man withholding a hoard wants it to be.  Has anyone seen the price of French 20-franc gold roosters lately?  They're all over the place.  And nobody knows anything about them except how many were "officially" minted. If you ask, "But when were they minted?", you'll get imprecise terminological inexactitudes or unique terms like "restrikes" and "redistributions."  As to why the 1914 has an "open 9," while all the others remain "closed," you'll get a blank look. France does not officially recognize hits, runs, errors, curiosities, oddities----or irregularities of any kind.  Matter of fact, time to drive this home again (now that the number of Rooster Set Registrants has risen to a bi-coastal 75) there is only one grade which embraces the MS-65, -66, -67, -68, -69 and 70, and that's the FDC (Fleaur de Coin). Half grades? Stars? Plus signs? "What are you trying to do, Monsieur, how shall I say, complicate matters?"

Buying is not worthy of discussion. Has addressing the supply or demand of narcotics and dangerous drugs affected the availability or price of drugs in this country?  [I don't wish to be a spoil-sport but things look stagnant for all but the upper ranks who dwell in climate-controlled rooms.]

Right-minded people, unforunately, have no power to affect the coin hobby in any meaningful  way.  The wrong coins continue to be made, flaws and defects are worshipped and influential, long-time numismatists are shouted down, discredited or marginalized like long-time lurkers.  Funny thing is even the market does not know what the market is, and FMV sounds mysterious enough to look good on paper.  The real reason why places like HA and GC--and the rest of the third-party acronyms thrive is due to a catchy saying attributed to Willie Sutton: "because that's where the money is."  Devoted collectors of cute cracks and culls will discover this for themselves in due time.

Oops, almost forgot... Merry Christmas to all and Good Will to All Men!

Edited December 25, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Indiscriminate die polishing.

[VKurtB]

On 12/25/2022 at 2:37 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Respectfully, as an, ahem, up-threader, I should like to go on record as saying all this talk of what the market wants and doesn't want is hooey, plain and simple. 

Nobody knows if an Edsel or a New Coke or two guys singing "Macarena," are going to go over big, or become one-hit wonders.

I happen to wholeheartedly agree with the gentleman given to speaking ex cathedra, but for reason.  Case in point:  what is the FMV of the much-vaunted 1933 DE?  Nobody will know what it is until when (and if) it ever comes up for sale.  Will NGCX make it?  Your guess is as good as mine.  As the average age of hobbyists (collectors, hoarders, investors and closeted lurkers) is 97 (based on photographs supplied by on-site coin-show groupies) I think it responsible to say the only credible answer is "that remains to be seen.

The "market," should it rears its head, is in a state of perpetual flux. What exactly is demand?  It's anything the man withholding a hoard wants it to be.  Has anyone seen the price of French 20-franc gold roosters lately?  They're all over the place.  And nobody knows anything about them except how many were "officially" minted. If you ask, "But when were they minted?", you'll get imprecise terminological inexactitudes or unique terms like "restrikes" and "redistributions."  As to why the 1914 has an "open 9," while all the others remain "closed," you'll get a blank look. France does not officially recognize hits, runs, errors, curiosities, oddities----or irregularities of any kind.  Matter of fact, time to drive this home again (now that the number of Rooster Set Registrants has risen to a bi-coastal 75) there is only one grade which embraces the MS-65, -66, -67, -68, -69 and 70, and that's the FDC (Fleaur de Coin). Half grades? Stars? Plus signs? "What are you trying to do, Monsieur, how shall I say, complicate matters?"

Buying is not worthy of discussion. Has addressing the supply or demand of narcotics and dangerous drugs affected the availability or price of drugs in this country?  [I don't wish to be a spoil-sport but things look stagnant for all but the upper ranks who dwell in climate-controlled rooms.]

Right-minded people, unforunately, have no power to affect the coin hobby in any meaningful  way.  The wrong coins continue to be made, flaws and defects are worshipped and influential, long-time numismatists are shouted down, discredited or marginalized like long-time lurkers.  Funny thing is even the market does not know what the market is, and FMV sounds mysterious enough to look good on paper.  The real reason why places like HA and GC--and the rest of the third-party acronyms thrive is due to a catchy saying attributed to Willie Sutton: "because that's where the money is."  Devoted collectors of cute cracks and culls will discover this for themselves in due time.

Oops, almost forgot... Merry Christmas to all and Good Will to All Men!

I keep trying to stop my head from spinning due to the fact that HA and GC get mentioned in the same breath now, but S-B has apparently disappeared. That’s okay, I’m used to being an outlier. 

[bstrauss3]

On 12/24/2022 at 11:58 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I thought as much.  What did JA say that was noteworthy ?

I wonder about the business model....dumping CAC stickering....presumably not going to pursue moderns...how many classics do they think they can grab from the established TPGs ?

I hope he has a better label than the preliminary one floating around on the forums. 

I don't recall that the meeting was being recorded. If it was, it hasn't been posted yet. LSCC is not an unsophisticated bunch, the questions were fairly deep, The answers were always some form of "that's a good question, we haven't figured it out yet".

 

I sort of figure the business model is to re-grade all of the coins that the fan-boys have had stickered. That will keep them busy for several years at the rates they can achieve. But unless they're charging LVMH boutique fees, I don't see how that pays the rent, especially with the costs of building out the business and a grading set. Even if a lot of the coins are borrowed at first (somebody, Wittier maybe, posted they were sending a very nice coin to CAC to be part of the grading set).

 

I wasn't a fan of the green when NTC used it. Still not. I get the white vs. black for gold, red copper, etc. But EVERYTHING looks TERRIBLE in puke-green.