The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

Look at how much more buying a fast-growing -- but low income, poor -- country like India is buying today.  Look at the long-term buying being absorbed by one country, albeit a large one (the Indian table).  It's out-of-date but the figure is now 750-800 tons per year (double the last entry.....25% of annual production today).

Now ask yourself....dozens of African countries....dozens of Asian and Central/South American countries....are their little people going to buy Rhodium or Palladium...or something they know for thousands of years......GOLD !! 

Edited March 8 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Chart 1 doesn't look like any kind of bubble.

Chart 2 shows that gold production is not directly tied to prices, thanks to long FIDs and CAPX decisions.

Chart 3 shows that the great producer -- South Africa -- is in decline.  Imagine if Saudi Arabia were to show 5% declines in oil production each year.

Chart 4 shows gold production back to 1970.  It's peaking.

What does this all mean ?  It means demand is rising every year...and supply is tight....the easiest supply is central bank selling and they aren't doing that anymore, they're buying.  This is a prescription for a MASSIVE rise in the gold price -- and I am NOT a gold bug.

We saw this once before.....the period up to 1971-74, when the gold price was fixed for decades earlier. That was under the gold exchange standard of Bretton Woods.  Now...I don't know if it's closer to 1962 or 1972...but gold is CLEARLY like a beach ball being held under the water line and it's going to rise up. 

Only question is when. 

Did you miss out on buying Saints or gold coins at $500/oz 20-25 years ago ?  Years from now, they could be saying the same thing about coins in the low-$2,000 range.  

 

 

[Henri Charriere]

Say,... anyone know the whereabouts of Russia between 1940 and 1970 and China between 1940 and 1980?

[Coinbuf]

On 3/7/2024 at 6:15 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's nothing.  Check out the move in Bitcoin or crypto over that period.  Check out bond spreads.  Check out NVDA or SCMI.

We're up 5% in a few months.  Those assets are up 5% a day 1 or 2 days a week...for months !! 

 

Apples and oranges, gold has been in a very tight range for quite some time, so this is a rapid move relative to how it has acted recently.   Trying to compare that to highly volatile assets like bitcoin is a false comparison.

On 3/7/2024 at 6:15 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

 

Authoritarian despots might fear capital controls -- their countries usually employ them themselves -- but most countries are democracies and this doesn't affect them.

The  ETF graph above shows that it is NOT institutional buyers driving the move.  It is retail buyers, The Little Guys, who are buying gold en masse.  They're buying coins, bars, whatever.  Maybe some Chinese/Indian early-2024 buying, too (that's ending I believe).

No doubt people are reading the 86 page Saint-Gaudens thread on this forum and mopping up common and generic Saints. 

That's the ticket, as Jon Lovitz' character used to say !! 

I disagree, too many retail buyers are having trouble just putting food on the table and paying the rent to load up on gold at these price levels.   In the past you have sought to use Chinese citizens as the source of the impetus for a $3,000 target.   Data shows that that segment has cooled due to the price runup, that only leaves central bank buying as the logical source of the spirited buying.   I did not say that every central bank was in a buying frenzy, but it really only takes a handful (which is what we have now) to see the current spike.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/8/2024 at 12:46 PM, Coinbuf said:

Apples and oranges, gold has been in a very tight range for quite some time, so this is a rapid move relative to how it has acted recently.   Trying to compare that to highly volatile assets like bitcoin is a false comparison.I disagree, too many retail buyers are having trouble just putting food on the table and paying the rent to load up on gold at these price levels.   In the past you have sought to use Chinese citizens as the source of the impetus for a $3,000 target.   Data shows that that segment has cooled due to the price runup, that only leaves central bank buying as the logical source of the spirited buying.   I did not say that every central bank was in a buying frenzy, but it really only takes a handful (which is what we have now) to see the current spike.

I disagree that a 5-7% move in gold is alot.  Only a few years ago gold moved 5% in a day.

Yes, central banks are buying -- but it's not only for monetary reasons, but for retail buyers in the host countries.  Look at my Indian graph for example.

Regardless of WHO is buying....there is hardly any SELLING.  Which means gold has a bid and over time, is going alot higher.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/8/2024 at 12:46 PM, Coinbuf said:

In the past you have sought to use Chinese citizens as the source of the impetus for a $3,000 target.  

I've used tham as 1 component in a rise higher -- and I didn't only mean Chinese buyers, but I listed China as one of many countries that couldn't afford any per-capita gold consumption decades ago and NOW can.

That pattern is being replicated by countries that in the past bought close to NOTHING...and today they have 3 billion consumers with a middle class of 700 million (growing 30 million a year) and some of that money goes to gold.

Check out the per-capita gold chart above, CB.  Look at some of the emerging countries like Vietnam or India -- it's nothing.  That's what is going to move gold to $3,000 an ounce -- and maybe to $5,000 by 2035.

Edited March 8 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/8/2024 at 3:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

.... That's what is going to move gold to $3,000 an ounce -- and maybe to $5,000 by 2035.

BY 2035???  THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU TOLD ME WHEN YOU SAID, "TRUST ME, I KNOW WHAT I'M DOING."  YOU TOLD ME IN MY LIFETIME!  I'LL BE 84 THEN!  SAY, WHAT IS THIS?  A GAG?      

[Henri Charriere]

Q.A.:  This just in... some guy named Al (Claude 3 Opus) predicts gold will rise to between $2300 and $2500, by the end of this year.

🐓  :  I think your "Al," is "A.I." Artificial Intelligence. 

Q.A.:  Probably right.  I prefer natural and organic, No artificial anything, but his, I mean its, forecast is within reason in view of "leading economic indicators."  

[GoldFinger1969]

$2,240 today on the COMEX...new high....what was a spike in price a few months ago today is easily surpassed. 

Super-bullish longer-term.  I think time-wise we are about 1974 or 1975 with years of higher prices ahead of us.  The SLOWER and more INCREMENTAL this bull market, the longer and higher it goes, IMO.

Edited March 29 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

Short of coming out and making, what my wife calls, a "day-clah-rah-S'YON" (declaration) or issuing a proclamation, I believe it safe to say the $259.70 I paid for one of my earliest raw Roosters, only a scant five years ago, is a thing of the past. So too, are the Roosters in the $300 to $399 range.  Today, any raw Roosters being sold by the major bullion dealers go for between $410 and $420. 

I was secretly hoping the rising gold spot price would result in greater availability of certain dates in the Rooster series, but that has failed to materialize.  I would imagine Double-Eagle collectors would be sitting pretty right about now.  

 

[GoldFinger1969]

$2,280 overnight, up another $40. 

Edited April 1 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

$2,424 up $50 today on COMEX.    

There is just a persistent bid underneath the metal.  It goes up regardless of what happens to stocks, bonds, or Fed talk.  

Premiums in Singapore relative to 2011 and 2012 are 1-2% and not 7-8% -- an indication this is not panic buying.  Also, American Eagle coin sales are under 20,000 a month as opposed to 75,000 a month at past peaks.

Edited April 12 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 11:11 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

$2,424 up $50 today on COMEX.    

There is just a persistent bid underneath the metal.  It goes up regardless of what happens to stocks, bonds, or Fed talk.  

Premiums in Singapore relative to 2011 and 2012 are 1-2% and not 7-8% -- an indication this is not panic buying.  Also, American Eagle coin sales are under 20,000 a month as opposed to 75,000 a month at past peaks.

...okay, okay ill quit buying....

[Henri Charriere]

On 4/12/2024 at 1:53 PM, zadok said:

...okay, okay ill quit buying....

My prediction, and I've gotten this on good authority, is you will SELL toward the end of 2025. 

To the OP:  when you posted this topic less than 18 months ago, gold spot stood at or about $1,770 and was up 8.3% for the month (November 1922). Looks like you were onto something.  

I thought some 🐓 collectors would sell to benefit from gains, but that failed to materialize.

 

 

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 6:24 PM, Henri Charriere said:

My prediction, and I've gotten this on good authority, is you will SELL toward the end of 2025. 

To the OP:  when you posted this topic less than 18 months ago, gold spot stood at or about $1,770 and was up 8.3% for the month (November 1922). Looks like you were onto something.  

I thought some 🐓 collectors would sell to benefit from gains, but that failed to materialize.

 

 

...nope, im still buying...no reason to sell, reason for buying n buying gold isnt to make dollars...dollars r of little to no value....

[GoldFinger1969]

Goldman Sachs ups year-end price target for gold to $2,700.    

If that happens, we'll obviously have to base and retrench for a while as that is a very large move for gold.  But this thread's prediction might be a bit too conservative ($3,000 by 2030) though my longer-term $5,000 by 2035 would be more likely.

Again...this is all supply and demand, folks.  The stars are aligning for gold like they were in the 1970's.  Even the 2000's rise was more a case of gold just being dirt cheap after basing for 20 years than both supply & demand moving into positive positions.  Gold wasn't as cheap when this move started because we didn't have a 20-year basing though we did have a near-50% decline again.

[GoldFinger1969]

Goldman Sachs earlier today hiked its year-end gold price target to $2700 from $2300, noting that momentum and retail haven't yet piled in.

"With Fed cuts still a likely catalyst to soften the ETF headwind later in the year, the right tail risk from the US election cycle and fiscal setting, gold's bullish skew remains clear," Goldman wrote in a note.

"Asian retail demand, led by China, has been driven by fear over economic stability and currency depreciation, particularly tied in China to the property sector," GS writes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[VKurtB]

On 4/13/2024 at 9:27 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Goldman Sachs earlier today hiked its year-end gold price target to $2700 from $2300, noting that momentum and retail haven't yet piled in.

"With Fed cuts still a likely catalyst to soften the ETF headwind later in the year, the right tail risk from the US election cycle and fiscal setting, gold's bullish skew remains clear," Goldman wrote in a note.

"Asian retail demand, led by China, has been driven by fear over economic stability and currency depreciation, particularly tied in China to the property sector," GS writes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey, that chart above talks about grams per capita. What we talkin’? Gold or cocaine?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/16/2024 at 11:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Hey, that chart above talks about grams per capita. What we talkin’? Gold or cocaine?

If you believe the anti-central bank spiel....and don't like/trust/understand Bitcoin or crypto....there's only one thing you want....

GOLD. 

Edited April 17 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 4/17/2024 at 12:39 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you believe the anti-central bank spiel....and don't like/trust/understand Bitcoin or crypto....there's only one thing you want....

GOLD. 

Or NVDA shares?

[Henri Charriere]

On 4/17/2024 at 9:35 AM, VKurtB said:

Or NVDA shares?

Is that a distant relative of NXIVM?  🤣

Re Gold:  I believe had that Rooster never appeared on the eleventh and final series of the F20F GR, I NEVER would have given it so much as a second glace. Whether gold goes up, or down -- even plummets to zero ($0.00) is of no concern to me.  When I summon the nerve and inclination to relate why, I shall do so under the "Unsolicited Comments" column if it is still extant.

[GoldFinger1969]

Must-read article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from the UK Telegraph.  Looks like the Chinese might be the inelastic buyer:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/16/gold-price-surge-china-warchest-geopolitical-dystopia/

 

[Henri Charriere]

On 4/17/2024 at 9:43 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Must-read article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from the UK Telegraph.  Looks like the Chinese might be the inelastic buyer:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/16/gold-price-surge-china-warchest-geopolitical-dystopia/

 

I AM NOT A GOLD BUG!

Now, If viewers will pardon my blatant plagiarism...

"We start believing now that we can be who we are.

"Gold is the word.  It's got a groove.  It's got a mean-ing.

"Gold is the time, is the place is the mo-tion.  Now, Gold is the way we are feeling.

"Gold is the word.  Is the word.  Is the word.  🐓 

Props to GF1969.  You heard it here first in this topic.

 

Edited April 18 by Henri Charriere
Die polishing.

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm not a gold bug either, HC....but if you look at all those charts I have posted in recent weeks, the supply-demand fundamentals look better at any time other than maybe 1971 or 2001.

EVERYTHING is lined up perfectly, and that's not giving any credit to a geopolitical adventure by Iran, Russia, or China.

I'm not prepared to give the super-bullish targers of $10,000 or other fanciful numbers I see thrown about....but I see $3,500 - $5,000 as right in the bullseye zone. 

Edited April 18 by GoldFinger1969