Advice on risking $18 for the unknown virtues of "Mint Error" service 0

[Dascher]

Dear Fellow NGC'ers:

I am anxious to submit this immaculate KM# 9.1, 1888-D Germany 20 Pfennig for certification ASAP but after thorough research I'm unclear on the best way how. NGC's Variety Plus does not officially recognize this particular coin's reverse as having a bona fide double die and due to lack of strength in the doubling, I assume it's an instance normal strike doubling (or some other mint error I'm not yet up to snuff on). This leads me to my real dilemma:

A) Do I risk $18.00 to "the discretion of NGC (my coin) falls within its interpretation of mint tolerance"? In other words, I'd be grateful for any educated opinions whether the moderate-to-strong, 360-degree strike doubling on my coin is compelling enough to gain "Mint Error" status, and if so
B) Regardless of where the coin's grading ultimately falls, is it even worth it? Will it bring more value to the coin than the $18 I paid for it? or will it be an $18 teaspoon of extra icing on an already 20,000 calorie cake?

Thanks in advance for any guidance you can offer and even though they don't do the coin justice, ample pictures are below - JFD     

[ldhair]

I don't believe NGC will show strike doubling on the label. 

[MarkFeld]

On 11/6/2022 at 5:40 AM, ldhair said:

I don't believe NGC will show strike doubling on the label. 

I agree and even if they did, I don’t think it would add any meaningful value.

[EagleRJO]

Appears to be machine or "self" doubling which really doesn't add much value. You can verify that looking at the attached infogrsphic with the coin in hand. The doubled elements look like they are lower than the main elements

It does not appear to be worth submitting the coin due to the grading costs, unless you have other reasons to do that

[Dascher]

Thanks again for sharing your time & knowledge EagleRJO. Your 2-for-2... and therefore like my Eagles, also undefeated.

E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES!

 

For what it's worth, I'm still going to ship & submit it today because it's in immaculate shape, I just won't bother with the extra $18 Mint Error add-on service.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Dascher

[Dascher]

On 11/6/2022 at 7:32 AM, MarkFeld said:

I agree and even if they did, I don’t think it would add any meaningful value.

Good info. Thank you both for your straight shooting. Have a blessed day.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:23 AM, Dascher said:

For what it's worth, I'm still going to ship & submit it today because it's in immaculate shape, I just won't bother with the extra $18 Mint Error add-on service.

It doesn't look like it would be worth submitting based on the value of the coin, and you may actually end up losing money by submitting it due to the costs of grading. See the following link for values ...https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/world/germany-empire-20-pfennig-km-9.1-1887-common-date-cuid-1169398-duid-1313773

[Dascher]

Seriously?! OK, now you've really piqued my curiosity. This is a 1888-D, i.e 134 year-old, key-mintage year coin in immaculate condition (honestly, pictures don't do it justice) that I'd bet the farm will get least an MS 60 or 63. The NGC census is capped at 6, the cost of acquisition was $0.01 and the normalized certification cost will be around $32. I trust your judgement, so what am I missing? 

[EagleRJO]

I'll give a more detailed explanation. For an MS-60 NGC values the coin slabbed as $85. The cost for NGC economy grading is $25 for a membership, $23 economy grading, $10 submission handling, plus shipping (without any attribution). That's getting close to the value of the coin, and if you sold the slabbed coin you would get very little as a net profit. If you just sold the coin raw you could likely get around $60 to $70 using UCoin as a guide. So you would be loosing money submitting it.

[Coinbuf]

Please stop back in and post your grading results if you do send it in, I do not know this series or type but from the photos an AU grade seems possible.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/6/2022 at 11:25 AM, Coinbuf said:

Please stop back in and post your grading results if you do send it in, I do not know this series or type but from the photos an AU grade seems possible.

@Coinbuf curious why you think it's an AU slider cause I'm just using my phone. Partial luster, color changes indicative of rub marks or minor hairlines in multiple directions?

Might be luster but I can't tell from this phone.

Edited April 11, 2023 by EagleRJO

[Coinbuf]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:34 AM, EagleRJO said:

@Coinbufcurious why you think it's an AU slider cause I'm just using my phone. Partial luster, color changes indicitive of rub marks or minor hairlines in multiple directions?

Might be luster but I can't tell from this phone.

The most notable thing that I see is on the wreath, notice how the high points of many of the leaves seem shinny like high point rub.   Now as I said I do not know this coin or series so that may in fact simply be the way these coins come as struck.   I also am not really seeing that much in the way of luster, seems very minimal or subdued in the photos.   Again, that could be very typical of this coin and series, or what I see for both of these areas could be a factor of the lighting.   As I do not know the op and his level of numismatic expertise, or the conditions that these photos were taken I am simply relying on years of experience to judge what I see.   I hope that is comes back with a high grade, which is why I hope the op will return once he has the coin back from NGC, I am always interested in learning what the graders think vs what I think.

[EagleRJO]

@Coinbuf If I had my computer I could pull up some example AU sliders and MS coins to compare to see if there appeared to be any wear or rub marks on the high points, but I was thinking AU without that check due to what appears to be a lack of luster and why I said "might be luster". But it's not a big cost difference for that coin and may just be the pics.

Edited April 11, 2023 by EagleRJO

[jimbo27]

Here is one to compare, found on ebay. Asking price $134.

Edited November 6, 2022 by jimbo27

[Dascher]

On 11/6/2022 at 3:35 PM, EagleRJO said:

@CoinbufIf I had my computer I could pull up some example AU sliders and MS coins to compare to see if there appeared to be any wear or rub marks on the high points, but I was thinking AU without that check due to what appears to be a lack of luster. But it's not a big cost difference for that coin and may just be the pics.

Apparently, the only thing more inept than my golf game and coin grading prediction skills combined is my photography prowess. The actual coin has a smooth, even & unadulterated luster with virtually no signs of wear and a few miniscule, immaterial surface abrasions. It's pure beauty like Jodie Foster's smile. Yet when I photograph it, it looks like it belongs on the Wikipedia page for leprosy.  When it comes to taking pictures, I have the Bizzaro World Midas Touch. 

[Dascher]

Yep, thanks, studied that same one last night and mine is at worst equal to that.  And I'm being assertive and arrogant about it as a favor to you, so when I end up being wrong as usually, you can enjoy belting out my justifed karma vis-a-vis "Nice going , I told you so". No worries either, I've been happily married for 20+ years, so I'm immune to that like a clownfish is to an anome.  

[EagleRJO]

@Dascher sounds like you had a frustrating day on the course, and I feel you. Not long ago I got so frustrated on the back 9 with a water and sand hazzard that I tossed my whole bag in the pond. Then I realized my keys and wallet were in the bag so I had to wade in the pond to get the bag with everything in my wallet soaked.

I actually think there is a good shot at an MS because a "slider" as I used it is an AU-58 right on the edge and could go either way. Hope you come back either way and we could also share some more golf war stories. 😉

Edited April 11, 2023 by EagleRJO

[Dascher]

Amen brother! I can empathize and lament, but fortunately for me I auto-piloted my personal golf cart in the lake and thank god it tipped over right before the waterline.  "Unfortunately" for me I've got to go back out there now with my best buddy/8-yo boy, so that's all for today.

But this has been fun, informative and $18.00 lucrative. I'm very interested to see how it all plays out. I just might even pay to upgrade to the fasted NGC tier so we won't have to wait for our grandchildren to visit us in our nursing homes with the verdict.

Be good...       

[Fenntucky Mike]

It's a tough call on this one but I think it will just slide into MS range, 60-62, I would not be at all surprised if it graded AU though. Personally I'd find a better coin to send in.

On 11/6/2022 at 5:17 PM, Dascher said:

I just might even pay to upgrade to the fasted NGC tier so we won't have to wait for our grandchildren to visit us in our nursing homes with the verdict.

I can understand wanting to get this graded if you were planning on keeping it, or wanted to test your grading skills, or if you thought it would increase resale value (which it most likely would), but paying up for a faster turnaround time would be a complete waste of money on this coin. If it grades low MS I would value it at around $70 or less, could be that the right buyer waltzes in on a good day and you might get $100.

On 11/6/2022 at 4:43 PM, Dascher said:

In certain circumstances like this for very old, rare/key date sought-after coins like my research has led me to believe this is, sales can go well over 250% of book value in the MS range.

You keep calling this a rare or key date coin and I'm just not seeing it, the 1888-D 20 Pfennig is readily available on multiple selling platforms, so the survival rate seems high, and the mintage figures don't reflect this coin as being a key date either. Am I missing something?

From numista.

I collect world coins and common world coins with middling grades don't bring big money when graded. People will pay extra for graded examples if they are completing a registry set or just want an authenticated coin but typically not much more than the grading fees, as you're basically saving them the trouble of sending in a coin themselves. If you sell as many coins as you claim then maybe a bulk submission would be your best bet if you want to go down the path of selling graded coins. 

Good luck with the submission. 

 

[EagleRJO]

@Dascher we really don't do challenges, judge people just because we might have different opinions if they are respectful like you are being, or do the "I told you so" nonsense. We just try to give people honest opinions and feedback, and try to also be respectful in return.

I collect German coins also, particularly older ones with eagles (go figure with my forum name ). That coin is in pretty good shape compared to some in my collection or that I have seen around that date, and prices can be low with guides. And for older ones like that it wouldnt surprise me if there were some allowances for age with the grade.

I think you are also correct on pricing that can vary greatly based on my experience with some German coins and some others around that date. It can vary considerably and you seem to have a better handle on prices. So I will acquiesce and defer to you on that.

And I really do hope you stick around. Not just to update us on your submission, which is always helpful (no need to expedite), but maybe to also give feedback to some who don't have as much experience as you from a sellers perspective.

Just my two (Indian head) nickels. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by EagleRJO

[Dascher]

On 11/6/2022 at 6:26 PM, EagleRJO said:

@Dascherwe really don't do challenges, judge people just because we might have different opinions if they are respectful like you are being, or do the "I told you so" nonsense. We just try to give people honest opinions and feedback, and try to also be respectful in return.

I collect German coins also, particularly older ones with eagles (go figure with my forum name ). That coin is in pretty good shape compared to some in my collection or that I have seen around that date, and prices can be low with guides. And for older ones like that it wouldnt surprise me if there were some allowances for age with the grade.

I think you are also correct on pricing that can vary greatly based on my experience with some German coins and some others around that date. It can vary considerably and you seem to have a better handle on prices. So I will acquiesce and defer to you on that.

And I really do hope you stick around. Not just to update us on your submission, which is always helpful (no need to expedite), but maybe to also give feedback to some who don't have as much experience as you from a sellers perspective.

Just my two (Indian head) nickels. 

I am with you all the way. I apologize for and will tone-down my natural yet ad nausea flow of sarcasm that easily and understandably can (and has already been) misinterpreted. I view the specific dialog between you, Coinbuf and myself as a constructive, academic-like mini applied research project among peers to learn a little and enjoy a lot. Painting it as a "Challenge" and the self-deprecating "I told you so's" have no substance in reality. It's just my way of humor to keep this both real and fun by taking it seriously, but not taking ourselves (and my 8-yo son's non-existent children) too seriously.                                

[EagleRJO]

@DascherNo need to apologize because if you stick around you will naturally see some pot shots in good fun or sarcasm that naturally flows from discussions where there is disagreement.

I have a feeling it will grade a little higher than I am thinking, but naturally take a conservative approach as then there may be the "you told me it would grade out as XX-XX and it wasn't even close with wasted money" bla, bla, bla.

But my first reaction was an AU-58 slider, and one is usually right with a first impression, but with the stated caveats. Please do stick around to toss around some naturally sarcastic and humorous stuff, but what is mostly about learning about coins and maybe helping others occasionally, and provide that seller perspective that I think is missing sometimes.

[Just Bob]

On 11/6/2022 at 7:47 PM, Dascher said:

I am with you all the way. I apologize for and will tone-down my natural yet ad nausea flow of sarcasm that easily and understandably can (and has already been) misinterpreted. I view the specific dialog between you, Coinbuf and myself as a constructive, academic-like mini applied research project among peers to learn a little and enjoy a lot. Painting it as a "Challenge" and the self-deprecating "I told you so's" have no substance in reality. It's just my way of humor to keep this both real and fun by taking it seriously, but not taking ourselves (and my 8-yo son's non-existent children) too seriously.                                

I appreciate the attitude that you have, polite sarcasm included. Many posters get offended immediately when we give opinions about their coins that do not line up with their expectations. That is normally followed by a few snide remarks or accusations of jealousy, and some members immediately respond with sarcastic or demeaning remarks of their own, sending things in a quick downward spiral. I am glad this thread went in a different direction. I always enjoy posts in which people can give differing or opposing opinions and remain civil - even humorous. 

I will add my own assessment, as well. As others have said, I think the doubling is strike doubling, which is not an error, and I think the coin is AU. I do hope I am wrong on the last part, though, and it comes back with a nice MS grade.

Good luck, and welcome to the forum. (If I haven't already done that)

[Dascher]

On 11/6/2022 at 10:39 PM, Just Bob said:

I appreciate the attitude that you have, polite sarcasm included. Many posters get offended immediately when we give opinions about their coins that do not line up with their expectations. That is normally followed by a few snide remarks or accusations of jealousy, and some members immediately respond with sarcastic or demeaning remarks of their own, sending things in a quick downward spiral. I am glad this thread went in a different direction. I always enjoy posts in which people can give differing or opposing opinions and remain civil - even humorous. 

I will add my own assessment, as well. As others have said, I think the doubling is strike doubling, which is not an error, and I think the coin is AU. I do hope I am wrong on the last part, though, and it comes back with a nice MS grade.

Good luck, and welcome to the forum. (If I haven't already done that)

Hey Bob! So very nice to hear from you again and thank you for your honest and supportive words. They are always valued, appreciated and helpful.
Your gifts of wisdom, diplomacy and persuasion would rival that of Ben Franklin's (his infamy with these among the ladies of 1790s French aristocracy notwithstanding, of course)      

[Dascher]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:05 PM, EagleRJO said:

@Daschersounds like you had a frustrating day on the course, and I feel you. Not long ago I got so frustrated on the back 9 with a water and sand hazzard that I tossed my whole bag in the pond. Then I realized my keys and wallet were in the bag so I had to wade in the pond to get the bag with everything in my wallet soaked.

I actually think there is a good shot at an MS because a "slider" as I used it is an AU-58 right on the edge and could go either way. Hope you come back either way and we could also share some more golf war stories. 😉

BTW, I've been meaning to ask. What exactly does "slider" mean?... other than Iceman's RIO at Top Gun, of course. Thanks

[EagleRJO]

"Slider" can mean different things to different people, in different situations. It can mean a lightly circulated coin that has been cleaned and dipped in chemicals to improve its appearance, and look very shiny like a uncirculated coin. That is meant in a derogatory way when done with the intent to fool a collector.

Then there is what I think is the more common usage, and how I often use the term, which is an about uncirculated coin that is a very high AU grade with only very minor issues that may not be readily apparent and could "slide" into an MS grade depending on the grader and other factors.

So, I think you really have to take the context of the situation to get how the term is being used.

[Dascher]

On 11/7/2022 at 3:05 AM, EagleRJO said:

"Slider" can mean different things to different people, in different situations. It can mean a lightly circulated coin that has been cleaned and dipped in chemicals to improve its appearance, and look very shiny like a uncirculated coin. That is meant in a derogatory way when done with the intent to fool a collector.

Then there is what I think is the more common usage, and how I often use the term, which is an about uncirculated coin that is a very high AU grade with only very minor issues that may not be readily apparent and could "slide" into an MS grade depending on the grader and other factors.

So, I think you really have to take the context of the situation to get how the term is being used.

Cool, thanks! That makes perfect sense and now I don't feel so stupid for having to ask - never would have figure all that out at home self-schooling numismatics. Tomorrow, I need to learn how to pronounce the word "numismatics" without getting a headache or sounding like I just had a double root canal.   

Edited November 7, 2022 by Dascher

[Dascher]

On 11/6/2022 at 5:06 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

It's a tough call on this one but I think it will just slide into MS range, 60-62, I would not be at all surprised if it graded AU though. Personally I'd find a better coin to send in.

I can understand wanting to get this graded if you were planning on keeping it, or wanted to test your grading skills, or if you thought it would increase resale value (which it most likely would), but paying up for a faster turnaround time would be a complete waste of money on this coin. If it grades low MS I would value it at around $70 or less, could be that the right buyer waltzes in on a good day and you might get $100.

You keep calling this a rare or key date coin and I'm just not seeing it, the 1888-D 20 Pfennig is readily available on multiple selling platforms, so the survival rate seems high, and the mintage figures don't reflect this coin as being a key date either. Am I missing something?

From numista.

I collect world coins and common world coins with middling grades don't bring big money when graded. People will pay extra for graded examples if they are completing a registry set or just want an authenticated coin but typically not much more than the grading fees, as you're basically saving them the trouble of sending in a coin themselves. If you sell as many coins as you claim then maybe a bulk submission would be your best bet if you want to go down the path of selling graded coins. 

Good luck with the submission. 

 

1. Thanks for the sharing your MS 60-62 assessment. As a seasoned veteran that was encouraging.
2. Sorry for not making my sarcastic sense of humor clear enough. The whole paying for expediated processing thing was not meant to be taken seriously... particularly since my son (in my profile pic) is only 8 years old and if he makes me a grandfather in the next few weeks I've got huge problems more important than this coin :-)
3. Since "Rare" and "Key Date" don't have a universally accepted meaning spelled out in, e.g. the NGC Glossary there's too much room for variance in each individuals' interpretation and use of these phrases. I would respectfully suggest you not take your more experienced & focus definition and apply it so strictly over mine. Nor in the context of another recent post about rarity index, etc. I would also question your logic that just because you found a few 1888-D coins for sale on a few coin selling platform this means they aren't rare. In less than 10 minutes I found 3 different Ferrari F40s for sale on 3 different high-end car platforms, does that mean the F40 is not a rare car? At this very moment there are 6 authentic Faberge Eggs for sale on eBay alone, so following your logic Faberge Eggs are no longer rare...
Lastly, I wouldn't say you're "missing" anything but please consider looking at "Rare" from a different perspective than what you're accustomed to and look at it from a German coin collecting perspective relative to all other Germany central government pfennigs (1, 2, 5, 10 & 20) minted from 1871 to 2001. Germany literally minted over    TRILLION of 1, 2, 5, 10 & 50 pfennigs each year for 130 years. It minted 200 million 20 Pfennig coins for only 19 years (1873-1892). Furthermore, 172 million of those were minted in silver and most don't exist anymore. So let me put it this way:Imagine all 1,000,000,000,000 +/- Germany central government (i.e. not including state, notgeld or East Germany) pfennigs minted from 1871-2001 that are left in the world today were rounded up and randomly poured into a gigantic piggy bank along with the 28,000,000 million 20 Pfennig coins. Now, say a person was hired to cherry-pick 1 coin per second non-stop. On average, they'd have to pick:
10 hours non-stop and 35,714 other pfennigs to find their first 20 Pfennig of any year, mint or quality. They'd literally be 3 times more likely find a job as a NASA astronaut than they would be to find any 20 Pfennig coin.
25.7 hours non-stop and 92,593 other pfennigs to find their first 20 Pfennig from 1888. They literally have a better chance of bowling 8 perfect/300 games sooner.
1 Month, 3 weeks and half a day non-stop and 184,291 other pfennigs to find their first 20 Pfennig from the common 1888-A mintage, but
6 Months, 2 weeks and 1.5 days non-stop and 711,177 other pfennigs to find their first 20 Pfennig from 1888-D, and lastly
5.5 Methuselah lifetimes or non-stop until April 22nd 7304 and on the 2,777,777,778th coin they'd find the 1st of 6 known MS quality 1888-D 20 Pfenning coins.

Still, "not seeing it"?

But I would be interested and grateful to hear a little bit more about how you understand "Rare" and "Key Date" because I very well may be the one not seeing what is obvious to everyone else. Please elaborate if you have the time and inclination. Thanks - JFD

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 11/7/2022 at 4:21 AM, Dascher said:

But I would be interested and grateful to hear a little bit more about how you understand "Rare" and "Key Date" because I very well may be the one not seeing what is obvious to everyone else. Please elaborate if you have the time and inclination. Thanks - JFD

I did a quick search on ebay and found roughly 30 listings for 1888-D 20 pfennig coins, if I go to MA-Shops and search for 1888-D 20 pfennig 51 listings pop up, granted there is probably some overlap there. Most of the examples are AU or lower but there were several UNC coins available. If a coin is that readily available it is either not rare and/or the collector base is very thin.

High grade examples do seem to fetch a fair price but the cutoff seems to be MS64, meaning a 1888-D pfennig would have to grade 64 or higher to return a profit if one paid FMV for a raw UNC example and submitted it. Since you only paid $0.01 for the coin you'll probably still come out ahead if the coin grades in the 55-62 range.

I don't collect these but that is my view from the outside looking in on this coin/series. 

[Dascher]

On 11/7/2022 at 5:48 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I did a quick search on ebay and found roughly 30 listings for 1888-D 20 pfennig coins, if I go to MA-Shops and search for 1888-D 20 pfennig 51 listings pop up, granted there is probably some overlap there. Most of the examples are AU or lower but there were several UNC coins available. If a coin is that readily available it is either not rare and/or the collector base is very thin.

High grade examples do seem to fetch a fair price but the cutoff seems to be MS64, meaning a 1888-D pfennig would have to grade 64 or higher to return a profit if one paid FMV for a raw UNC example and submitted it. Since you only paid $0.01 for the coin you'll probably still come out ahead if the coin grades in the 55-62 range.

I don't collect these but that is my view from the outside looking in on this coin/series. 

1st of all @Fenntucky Mike, please allow me say what should have started my last post with, and that is Hello Fenntuckey Mike (great screen name, BTW, I love it!). It's my pleasure to make your acquaintance & I like your deep, direct style. 

I also appreciate a veteran like yourself taking the time to share your insight with a neophyte like me. Even though we're arriving on common ground it ironically seems to be from 2 juxtaposed paths. What you're saying is formidable and won't be lost on me. After 25 years in early stage venture I can't ever say I made a bad investment because I had too much information about it. And countless times the best information in the end came in the message I least wanted to hear at the onset, so please keep it comin'!

Have a great week & hope we can talk again soon. - JFD

Edited November 7, 2022 by Dascher
spelling & grammar