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What's Up With Crypto?
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Started by Henri Charriere,

317 posts in this topic

VKurtB

VKurtB

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On 9/18/2022 at 12:45 PM, numisport said:

After you fully recover from your wounds maybe explain how Crypto is related to Numismatics ?

It’s the opposite of numismatics, with the exception of VERY few physical pieces that have actual digital Bitcoin attached to them. There are exceptionally few of them. 

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Henri Charriere

Henri Charriere

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On 9/18/2022 at 1:45 PM, numisport said:

After you fully recover from your wounds maybe explain how Crypto is related to Numismatics ?

[I have taken the liberty to capitalize coin, COIN, in a feeble attempt to lend credence to my specious claim that crypto constitutes a form of numismatica.]

I am sorry you posted this question, in fact, when you did, a fleeting thought passed thru my mind:  "Quintus, you really did it to yourself this time.  I hope the surgeon you were referred to tells you the same thing the nicest Federal judge in Brooklyn wrote one of the two Mafia cops who had requested a reduction in his sentence: "I am sorry, there's nothing I can do for you."  :roflmao:

Perhaps I will fare better with you. I know nothing about bitCOIN (that second syllable is emphasized to allow me to save face.)  May I quote some extracts I read in an Opinion piece in a "paper of record" only two days ago, with the implicit understanding I shall abandon this thread forthwith at its conclusion?  Thanks for being a good sport!

"BitCOIN mining may be responsible for about 65 megatons of carbon dioxide a year, comparable with the emissions of [Potugal] or Greece, according to a new study in the journal Joule, [and Digiconomist, a website that tracks cryptographic energy consumption].

'Merge,' a Watershed Moment for Crypto, Comes With Risks

"This is the first big step in Ethereum's [E] big journey towards being a very mature system...."

"And many crypto fans hope that it will turn things around for the crypto movement, which has been besieged in the last year by trillions of dollars in losses, a string of major scams and hacks, and a new wave of scrutiny."  (Emphasis mine.)

"I'm not sure it will. But before I tell you why, let's review some of the reasons that crypto supporters are celebrating.

First, it was far from a given that the merge would work. Switching a blockchain's so-called consensus mechanism--the way that it processes and verifies new transactions--is terrifyingly complex. (Some crypto developers have compared it to swapping out a spaceship's engine in midflight.)  Before the merge, nobody had tried such a maneuver on a crypto platform anywhere near E's size, and it took years of testing and research (and many, many delays) for developers to get confident enough to attempt one.

"E, which is open source, hosts hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of crypto currency transactions, NFT collections, and DeFi protocols, all of which could have been irreparably broken if the merge hadn't gone according to plan.

"The second reason... more environmentally friendly. E used to be secured by a network of high-powered computers that competed against one another to solve cryptographic puzzles, burning vast amounts of energy in the process.  Now, it will be secured by a process known as 'staking,' which involves investors agreeing to deposit their crypto COINS in a shared pool in exchange for a chance to earn financial rewards....

"Third, ....For reasons that are too complicated to get into here, running the E blockchain requires destroying (or 'burning') billions of dollars' worth of Ether every year. The new E block chain will still burn Ether, but it won't need to create as much new Ether to pay out rewards to participants.  That means that the overall supply of Ether could shrink, increasing the value of existing COINS....

"Right now, the biggest threat to crypto--in the U.S., at least--is that the people in charge of regulating the industry seem to want to ban it.  These regulators are worried about stableCOINS, Ponzi schemes, state-sponsored ransomware attacks and investors losing their money to opaque crypto lending schemes.... The merge doesn't address any of that.... (BitCOIN, which runs on a proof-of-work system, has no plans to switch to a new consensus mechanism, so it's energy consumption is likely to stay high, at least for the foreseeable future.)....

"And, of course, the merge won't put money-losing crypto investors back in the black or recover the assets lost by investors in failed crypto projects like Luna and Celsius Network.... but crypto will need more than a successful merge to turn its fortunes around. Sorry to take the fizz out of the champagne."

***

Note:  This will be my last comment on this Topic. NGC management, with my consent, may pull this thread at any time as they see fit.

My thanks to long-time member @numisport for bringing this errant thread to my attention.  :signofftopic:

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GoldFinger1969

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On 9/13/2022 at 4:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Why was the US downgrade bogus?  Because the US can print?

Because the U.S. got downgraded....financial markets went into a panic......and folks MOVED MONEY GLOBALLY into the U.S. Treasury market !!!

On 9/13/2022 at 4:43 PM, World Colonial said:

If that's your reason, I don't know why the rating agencies even rate any sovereign debt denominated in the local currency, since they can always "pay it back", even if it's steeply devalued. 

The U.S. is different as a global reserve financial currency.  It's not a question of being willing to "pay it back" but pay it back in a value close to what lenders gave initially.

On 9/13/2022 at 4:43 PM, World Colonial said:

The entire credit rating system is bogus.  Look at the history of bond rating upgrades and downgrades.  It's practically worthless as a decision making tool.  Bond raters invariably downgrade after prices have crashed.  That's completely useless.

Mistakes are made, but by and large credit analysts have a much better track record relative to economists, strategists, or equity folks.  That's why the bond market is referred to as the "smart money." xD

Historically, the bond market has gotten it right most of the time on corporate, municipal, and sovereign dowrngrades.  Asset-backed is tougher and a much spottier record (notably non-agency MBS in 2008-09).

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CraigZmeyka

CraigZmeyka

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I have never invested money in cryptos because those are money without real value. There is no clear explanation of what they are backed with and where the value comes from. I think they are too unreliable and don’t want to risk.
Cryptos might be useful for some transactions but not for long-term investments that are going to bring you real money. And cryptos attract too many people who just want to make money out of the air. That’s how they get that expensive, and a small group of people benefits from that a lot. That’s why I prefer real assets like real estate, oil, and so on. You can learn from professionals on www.doughroller.net how to make precise and correct investments and not bother with cryptos.

Edited by CraigZmeyka
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Abdelziz

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It's no secret that cryptocurrency has become a full-fledged financial instrument, beginning to resemble a financial bubble. The income is received by those who managed to invest initially.  People who buy a crypt for several thousand may not get a return on investment because the market is ""inflated"". As a result, the market may collapse, as happened with the real estate market in 2007.  A few months ago, I bought a small block of shares and left it on my wallet merchant.cryptex.net. I had some expectations, but they evaporated when I studied cryptocurrency in a little more detail and realized that I would not be able to get a good income with my capital.

Edited by Abdelziz
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GoldFinger1969

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On 10/21/2022 at 4:04 AM, Abdelziz said:

It's no secret that cryptocurrency has become a full-fledged financial instrument, beginning to resemble a financial bubble. The income is received by those who managed to invest initially.  People who buy a crypt for several thousand may not get a return on investment because the market is ""inflated"". As a result, the market may collapse, as happened with the real estate market in 2007.  A few months ago, I bought a small block of shares and left it on my wallet merchant.cryptex.net. I had some expectations, but they evaporated when I studied cryptocurrency in a little more detail and realized that I would not be able to get a good income with my capital.

I must say that crypto has held up so far with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spiking the last few weeks.  Let's see if it holds.

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GoldFinger1969

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On 10/21/2022 at 12:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I must say that crypto has held up so far with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spiking the last few weeks.  Let's see if it holds.

On the other hand....gold is down about 10% YTD and BitCoin is still down almost 60%.  Stocks are down about 20-25%...and even "safe" bond investments have had their worst year in a century down 16% by one measure.

Gold really has been a safe haven (besides cash) in 2022, hard as it may seem.  The historic rise in rates has prevented gold from rising in regards to inflation. 

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VKurtB

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On 6/17/2022 at 6:06 PM, zadok said:

...rumor has it that bags of hot air mite sell in the low to mid 5 figures if they can find enuf dupes....

Bags of hot air? You speak, I assume, of my former employers, the Pennsylvania General Assembly?

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GoldFinger1969

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Crypto got slammed today because one of the "saviors" of all the stablecoins, exchanges, etc....needed to be bailed out himself.

BitCoin was down at the open...rallied on the merger/bailout news....then fell back to down 12% or so at the close.

If the exchanges and individuals backing this stuff are shaky, how can the underlying cryptos and coins inspire confidence? 

Until you get some super-deep pocketed billionaire like a Musk, Bezos, Buffet, etc.....this thing is shaky.  It's like putting  huge $$$ into a bank with no FDIC insurance and the bank owners tell you "Trust us." xD

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/08/cryptocurrencies-slide-as-worries-about-ftx-fester-in-latest-crypto-liquidity-scare.html

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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GoldFinger1969

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On 11/8/2022 at 5:46 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Think about that a moment... seems like now is the time to:  buy!   Buy!! BUY!!!  BUY!!!!  BUY!!!!!

What are you buying ?  It's like buying cheap stocks, but not being sure if the exchange or transfer agent or brokerage firm will be able to credit you the shares. :|

This would be comical if not for the $$$ losses for small investors.

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Henri Charriere

Henri Charriere

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On 11/8/2022 at 5:51 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What are you buying ?  It's like buying cheap stocks, but not being sure if the exchange or transfer agent or brokerage firm will be able to credit you the shares. :|

This would be comical if not for the $$$ losses for small investors.

And to think there are people (even some who've weighed in on this thread) who swear by the concept and explain it in cryptospeak.  :roflmao:

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Henri Charriere

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On 11/9/2022 at 1:28 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

True, but non-cryto, METAverse Zuckerberg is worth $200 billion.  The $800 billion dollar loss he just suffered? The 50% loss in quarterly profits?  Stocks down 70%?  No matter. How many blue slips we got? About 12,000? Use 'em...

 

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Henri Charriere

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On 8/4/2022 at 12:15 PM, VKurtB said:

.... Even the small town Main Street is in the throes of a boom.

I must have missed this the first time around.  I recall reading Main Street got its first traffic light.  :roflmao:

(Sorry, I couldn't help myself.)  

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VKurtB

VKurtB

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On 11/11/2022 at 11:19 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

I must have missed this the first time around.  I recall reading Main Street got its first traffic light.  :roflmao:

(Sorry, I couldn't help myself.)  

Yes, downtown central Arab has three traffic lights, one fairly new. The number of vacant storefronts is unacceptable, but shrinking. The present Veteran’s Museum is moving, with City financial assistance, and that building is planned to REVERT to a theater, which it had been years ago. I’ve never lived ANYWHERE where the municipal government was so well run and flush with budgetary surpluses. I met my State Rep for the first time on Election Day, and I met my Congressman long ago. It’s the first time I’ve ever lived anywhere where I approve of ALL my local and state elected officials. Yeah, the sales tax rate is obscene, but…. To quote a great man, “I love this place!”

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Henri Charriere

Henri Charriere

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Moving right along. I don't wish to belabor any of the bad news emanating from the crypto quarter as of late, but here's the latest, in substance...

Embattled Crypto Exchange FTX Files for Bankruptcy.

Some key snippets...

The announcement capped a stunning week that upended crypto markets and has sent shock waves through the crypto industry....

The announcement completed a remarkable fall for FTX's 30-year-old founder, Sam Bankman-Fried... considered one of the wisest and most powerful figures in the crypto industry...

FTX collapsed this week after a three-day run on deposits...

FTX's collapse has destabilized the crypto industry which was already reeling from a crash in the spring that drained $1 trillion from the market. [Gloating emphasis mine.]

The prices of the leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, have plummeted...

Here's the upbeat ending as appended by the writer of this "rolling" obituary. (yes GF1969, I "borrowed" that term from you.):

"This is a developing story. Check back for updates."

Entirely gratuitous, editorial comment: To those who've pooh-poohed as beyond amateurish, my maintaining my savings in USPS money orders...  Breaking News! I still have my money! What have these crypto guys got? Bupkis, that's what!

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Henri Charriere

Henri Charriere

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On 11/11/2022 at 3:48 PM, VKurtB said:

.... It’s the first time I’ve ever lived anywhere where I approve of ALL my local and state elected officials....

[To re-cap, per your Chat Board bio, your butt's in true-blue 'bama, but your mind continues to dwell in crimson PA... As a practical matter, minus the roadside stands you're partial to up North, it seems you've transitioned succesfully.]

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VKurtB

VKurtB

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Weren’t Major League Baseball umpires wearing FTX logo patches? I love that. FTX is as stupid as MLB umpire Ángel Hernández. By the way @GoldFinger1969, I feel your Mets fan pain. As a Phils fan since 1964, I enjoyed our little run, but the Mets deserved a better fate. 

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VKurtB

VKurtB

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On 11/11/2022 at 3:30 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

[To re-cap, per your Chat Board bio, your butt's in true-blue 'bama, but your mind continues to dwell in crimson PA... As a practical matter, minus the roadside stands you're partial to up North, it seems you've transitioned succesfully.]

I enjoy my public servants in the OPPOSITE party for which I worked for 13 years. 

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VKurtB

VKurtB

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On 11/11/2022 at 3:30 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

[To re-cap, per your Chat Board bio, your butt's in true-blue 'bama, but your mind continues to dwell in crimson PA... As a practical matter, minus the roadside stands you're partial to up North, it seems you've transitioned succesfully.]

Bama is crimson, of all types.

Nittany Lions are blue. 
 

My wife and I are starting to wonder how we’ll handle a bowl game between the two. A serious possibility. 

Edited by VKurtB
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GoldFinger1969

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On 11/11/2022 at 4:30 PM, VKurtB said:

Weren’t Major League Baseball umpires wearing FTX logo patches? I love that. FTX is as stupid as MLB umpire Ángel Hernández. By the way @GoldFinger1969, I feel your Mets fan pain. As a Phils fan since 1964, I enjoyed our little run, but the Mets deserved a better fate. 

The playoffs are a crapshoot.  I personally think 3 WC's are too many.  Hard to believe MLB offered the MLBPA a 4th WC.  Do that and sub-500 teams are getting in.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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GoldFinger1969

GoldFinger1969

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On 11/11/2022 at 4:32 PM, VKurtB said:

Bama is crimson, of all types. Nittany Lions are blue.  My wife and I are starting to wonder how we’ll handle a bowl game between the two. A serious possibility. 

Not a good year for the Crimson Tide. :(

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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GoldFinger1969

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On 11/9/2022 at 1:28 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

True, but non-cryto, Elon Musk is worth $200 billion.  The $800 billion dollar loss he suffered?  No matter. Just charge users a nominal fee.  Nice.

That is the market cap loss suffered by META (Facebook) shareholders the last year or so.  Not a personal loss by Zuckerberg or Musk.  Zuckerberg has probably lost about $100 BB give-or-take.....Musk has probably lost $50 BB off a much larger fortune (assuming his Twitter stake is valued at cost).

Why Sam Bankman-Fried didn't take something off the table is beyond me.:|

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GoldFinger1969

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Great analysis of the shenanigans (fraud) behind FTX:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-14/ftx-s-balance-sheet-was-bad?leadSource=uverify wall

Focus on the creation of billions in value/assets of made-up assets like Serum.  The question then is....what happened to the actual cash (customer accounts) that these fake assets replaced ?  Clearly, it was stolen.

Ultimately, this isn't a story so much about crypto...it's about leverage, co-mingling of customer accounts, and theft.

Unlike 2008, people will be going to jail because crimes were committed.

 

 

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Henri Charriere

Henri Charriere

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On 10/21/2022 at 12:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I must say that crypto has held up so far with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spiking the last few weeks.  Let's see if it holds.

What a difference [not quite] a month makes...

"Implosion of Trusted Exchange Shakes Cryptocurrency Faithful." [New York Times, late last week, page one.]

There was an interesting editorial underscoring the fact that while people may not understand crypto, they understand ZE-RO.

Looks like government regulators (and Federal prosecutors) have their work cut out for them. Forensics at its finest.

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