What's Up With Crypto? 3 3

[World Colonial]

On 7/10/2022 at 4:15 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I owned RDS before....the European/British oils are too henpecked by the Greens overseas.  Both RDS and BP cut their dividends in 2020....Exxon and Chevron did not.

Royal Dutch had last cut the divvy almost 80 years ago during WW II during The Blitz.  They threw that all away.

I also think that RDS and BP have too much debt.  RDS is "modest" by current standards (at round 50% D/E) but not historically.  I consider both balance sheets weak.

On another note, I've also read that the Rockefeller family has been or is reducing their stakes in the Standard Oil successor firms for similar reasons, political correctness.  With the massive dividends they have been collecting for multiple decades, they should be amply diversified already.

[Henri Charriere]

With the gargantuan losses suffered by crypto recently came the old familiar refrain: buy, Buy, BUY!!!  Why you ask?  Simple. What's left of the prevailing prices is low. Very LOW.  So for those unacquainted with the intangible, there's never been a better time to buy than now. I'm just going to continue sitting on the fence trying to make sense of the imponderable.  

[GoldFinger1969]

If these jokers are emblematic of who is active in crytpto and BitCoin, we have many more big plunges ahead of us:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/three-arrows-founders-en-route-to-dubai-describe-ltcm-moment?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twitter-moments&utm_content=crypto

[VKurtB]

On 7/22/2022 at 9:04 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If these jokers are emblematic of who is active in crytpto and BitCoin, we have many more big plunges ahead of us:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/three-arrows-founders-en-route-to-dubai-describe-ltcm-moment?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twitter-moments&utm_content=crypto

They are, and we do. Ignorant millennials. 

[Henri Charriere]

I cannot help but feel, what with all the talk of Ponzi schemes, since quashed, that there was an esoteric philosophical basis shared by the late Bernie Madoff and the stunning proliferation of cryptomaniacs out there, many of whom, I suspect, are eager to throw more good money after bad. 🤔 

[VKurtB]

On 7/24/2022 at 1:27 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

I cannot help but feel, what with all the talk of Ponzi schemes, since quashed, that there was an esoteric philosophical basis shared by the late Bernie Madoff and the stunning proliferation of cryptomaniacs out there, many of whom, I suspect, are eager to throw more good money after bad. 🤔 

“It’s not a lie, if you believe it.”

[GoldFinger1969]

When the crytpo bulls like Michael Saylor of MSTR need to base their support on Ugandan gold, that just makes me MORE bearish on crypto and BitCoin, regardless of what gold may or may not do:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/uganda-s-gold-discovery-what-it-could-mean-for-crypto

[Henri Charriere]

The latest... "DEATH OF A CRYPTO COMPANY"

"The downfall of Celsius Network tells the story of an industry that became the thing it was trying to reject."  (July 25, 2022)

This was a podcast one could access (for me by simply pushing a button) but having encountered people who were similarly defrauded, I chose to pass. I believe the losses involved $20 billion. There have been other spectacular crypto failures but they were always announced in muted fashion. I don't revel in other people's misfortunes.  My condolences to those whose stories, for obvious reasons, will never be known.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/1/2022 at 6:16 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

The latest... "DEATH OF A CRYPTO COMPANY"  "The downfall of Celsius Network tells the story of an industry that became the thing it was trying to reject."  (July 25, 2022)  This was a podcast one could access (for me by simply pushing a button) but having encountered people who were similarly defrauded, I chose to pass. I believe the losses involved $20 billion. There have been other spectacular crypto failures but they were always announced in muted fashion. I don't revel in other people's misfortunes.  My condolences to those whose stories, for obvious reasons, will never be known.

These crypto losses are tens of billions...even hundreds of billions when you throw in the price declines in addition to the bankrupticies.....wonder who's been getting hit ?

Not sure if it's alot of Little Guys....or a few more big ones, like Three Arrows Capital ?

[Henri Charriere]

You've probably heard of Bishop Whitehead who was robbed Sunday of $1M in high-end jewelry he routinely wears while delivering a sermon in a Bklyn church--that was being live-streamed. It later developed he had swindled a parishioner out of her life's savings years earlier. Oh, and he drives a Rolls-Royce. You can see that with your eyes. Crypto, I don't know. So all that money is gone and what do some presumably intelligent people who "invest" their money after asking all the right questions, say now? Guess I'll have to go back to work. At age 78? Sad.

[World Colonial]

On 8/1/2022 at 10:42 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Crypto, I don't know. So all that money is gone and what do some presumably intelligent people who "invest" their money after asking all the right questions, say now? Guess I'll have to go back to work. At age 78? Sad.

You mean like that CNBC article on Celsius today?

If so, these people didn't ask the most important question which is, how can these firms pay these "guaranteed" rates when no other actually legitimate business can do it?

The people who fit the profile of those in the article are asking (including writing judges) for exceptions to established creditor priority.  They should not receive it, no matter how gut wrenching their story.  Otherwise, establishing a pattern with this precedent will bring into question the entire reliability of the US financial system.

If you have another scenario in mind, depends upon what it is.

Lastly, the "money" isn't actually gone.  It's always transferred to whoever these people bought their "coins" from.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2022 at 6:43 PM, VKurtB said:

“It’s not a lie, if you believe it.”

Thanks, George !!  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/2/2022 at 3:26 PM, World Colonial said:

You mean like that CNBC article on Celsius today?  If so, these people didn't ask the most important question which is, how can these firms pay these "guaranteed" rates when no other actually legitimate business can do it?

The people who fit the profile of those in the article are asking (including writing judges) for exceptions to established creditor priority.  They should not receive it, no matter how gut wrenching their story.  Otherwise, establishing a pattern with this precedent will bring into question the entire reliability of the US financial system.

If you have another scenario in mind, depends upon what it is. Lastly, the "money" isn't actually gone.  It's always transferred to whoever these people bought their "coins" from.

General creditors are screwed.  I never understand going for broke.

Just spoke with a friend/associate I know from my investing circles.  Apparently he lost a ton of money when Covid tanked the market and he got a huge margin call.  I didn't know he was on margin; I knew he traded options but figured he was playing them conservatively.  This guy is pretty savvy financially but he must not have seen a 6-sigma event and must have lost most of what I believe at one time was a $1 MM portfolio.

Guy now works for UPS part-time, downsized his apartment by 50%, and hopes to make some money back via a restaurant chain.

[GoldFinger1969]

DELETED

Edited August 3, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Reading some of the letters on that CNBC Celsius bankruptcy....I feel for the people, but they allowed themselves to be lied to.

The same people who research a new HDTV or microwave oven or automobile for weeks or months, decided to invest tens of thousands of dollars or even more based on 10 minutes of slick promotional marketing materials.

It was RIGHT THERE in front of them, like a "bank" which says "HEY, WE DON'T HAVE FDIC INSURANCE SO CAVEAT EMPTOR."

[VKurtB]

On 8/3/2022 at 12:21 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Reading some of the letters on that CNBC Celsius bankruptcy....I feel for the people, but they allowed themselves to be lied to.

The same people who research a new HDTV or microwave oven or automobile for weeks or months, decided to invest tens of thousands of dollars or even more based on 10 minutes of slick promotional marketing materials.

It was RIGHT THERE in front of them, like a "bank" which says "HEY, WE DON'T HAVE FDIC INSURANCE SO CAVEAT EMPTOR."

My uncle made most of his fortune writing covered call options on stocks he owned. He worked them HARD and they worked like “extra dividends”. He died at 101 and I’m a beneficiary. I guess I’ll write options too. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/3/2022 at 3:11 PM, VKurtB said:

My uncle made most of his fortune writing covered call options on stocks he owned. He worked them HARD and they worked like “extra dividends”. He died at 101 and I’m a beneficiary. I guess I’ll write options too. 

WRITING covered calls is one thing....puts is another thing.  You always have to know your downside even if it's a 1 in 1,000 event.

Because they tend to happen more frequently than that.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/3/2022 at 10:38 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

WRITING covered calls is one thing....puts is another thing.  You always have to know your downside even if it's a 1 in 1,000 event.

Because they tend to happen more frequently than that.

Laugh if you want, but I discovered the best investment vehicle for my wife. Something safe and uncomplicated.  No not U.S.S.B., but U.S.P.S.M.O.s. They never go up. They never go down. (They don't even go sideways.) And best of all, whomever holds them,, owns them.  The majority of intelligent investors eschew them: they don't earn interest. As stated before elsewhere on another thread, money you don't spend, is money you save. Nobody would have criticized a former crypto holder for simply setting money aside. The lack of dividends don't interest me. We have no bad habits. None.

 We're seniors, we ride the subways half-fare, get exercise walking and the postal money orders never expire. Roosters and paper; that's me to a T.

That flies in the face of 99% of the investment/collector strategies pursued by members on this Forum. That's okay. I don't own a car, a plane  or bike. My rent is $220., in Manhattan. I believe our joint income (rounded to make it easier to remember) is $999.99. I don't even need that. I "dine" at church soup kitchens and take my wife everywhere she wants to go. I do have health issues but so do the rest of us. I hope the heavy artillery our hosts sent to my door remember to come back and remove the duct tape. It's embarrassing enough to go check out Stack's. Properly dressed.  I'd rather walk in without being cuffed to.my wife like a normal human being.  

[RonnieR131]

 Oops.

Edited August 6, 2022 by ronnie stein
Clarify

[zadok]

On 8/4/2022 at 4:49 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Laugh if you want, but I discovered the best investment vehicle for my wife. Something safe and uncomplicated.  No not U.S.S.B., but U.S.P.S.M.O.s. They never go up. They never go down. (They don't even go sideways.) And best of all, whomever holds them,, owns them.  The majority of intelligent investors eschew them: they don't earn interest. As stated before elsewhere on another thread, money you don't spend, is money you save. Nobody would have criticized a former crypto holder for simply setting money aside. The lack of dividends don't interest me. We have no bad habits. None.

 We're seniors, we ride the subways half-fare, get exercise walking and the postal money orders never expire. Roosters and paper; that's me to a T.

That flies in the face of 99% of the investment/collector strategies pursued by members on this Forum. That's okay. I don't own a car, a plane  or bike. My rent is $220., in Manhattan. I believe our joint income (rounded to make it easier to remember) is $999.99. I don't even need that. I "dine" at church soup kitchens and take my wife everywhere she wants to go. I do have health issues but so do the rest of us. I hope the heavy artillery our hosts sent to my door remember to come back and remove the duct tape. It's embarrassing enough to go check out Stack's. Properly dressed.  I'd rather walk in without being cuffed to.my wife like a normal human being.  

...there is a diff between investment n saving...one could be the other but not always the other way around...true u have the security but u also r forgoing any possible interest which u have decided to eschew, personal choice n in todays world most financial institutions paying minimal interest anyway...the only other vehicle that would simply meet ur needs n pay u a decent interest is I-bonds...but ur point is well made n meets ur needs n u have no requirements to comply with others vehicles anyway...to each his own n ur M.O.s r pretty much off the grid n duct tape exempt....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/4/2022 at 4:49 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

My rent is $220., in Manhattan. 

Are you that guy I passed a few weeks ago sleeping in that big refrigerator box ?   

Jeez....$220....for anything larger than a closet, you have a steal.  Obviously, a post-WW II rent controlled/stabilized unit that is either owned by the city or a landlord is losing a ton of money on. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 8/3/2022 at 10:38 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

WRITING covered calls is one thing....puts is another thing.  You always have to know your downside even if it's a 1 in 1,000 event.

Because they tend to happen more frequently than that.

Writing covered options works great in a long-term bull market when the major averages or the stocks are rising consistently.  It doesn't work nearly as well or at all in a major bear market.  You'll find yourself deep underwater consistently writing new calls at (deep) underwater strike prices.  Look at Exxon.  It peaked in 2008 and crashed over 70% into 2020.  That's 12 years.  Sure, you can keep on writing calls but way below cost where you might have to buy it again if it's called away.  Works better with diversification but once again, diversification mostly works in bull markets because credit has inflated all major asset classes.

Absent a meteor strike, I don't think there are any legitimate "black swans".  It's that 99%+ aren't paying attention.  The GFC wasn't one.  When the Enron scandal broke and the company filed for bankruptcy (late 2001 I recall), the stock had already crashed to $14 from $90.  That's when the rating agencies downgraded it, once again closing the barn door after the horses bolted.  There may be exceptions, but I don't remember any and this pattern is absolutely the norm.

[VKurtB]

On 8/4/2022 at 10:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Are you that guy I passed a few weeks ago sleeping in that big refrigerator box ?   

Jeez....$220....for anything larger than a closet, you have a steal.  Obviously, a post-WW II rent controlled/stabilized unit that is either owned by the city or a landlord is losing a ton of money on. 

Losing money in the “opportunity cost” sense, surely. But depending on the circumstances, might still be cash flow positive for the landlord. I now own my primary home for the first time in my life. $70K increase in equity in a single year. We bought about 25 miles outside a hyper overheated housing market (Huntsville) and this little town is in the beginning of a serious boom. Even the small town Main Street is in the throes of a boom. 
 

Our man Quintus lives in basically the same neighborhood where comedian George Carlin grew up. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

@GoldFinger1969:

It is a modern, Federally-subsidized building for senior citizens which was advertised only once in a free local paper, and never again. I grabbed my wife and reminded her there were 60,000 homeless people in the city.  We picked up an application,  filled it out, mailed it immediately and later received a very low number. I told my wife the really sad thing about this is vacancies develop only when previous tenants expire. A certified skeeter in the seedier parts of town offered, with a straight face, to help speed up the process.  I politely declined his invitation.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/4/2022 at 12:13 PM, World Colonial said:

Absent a meteor strike, I don't think there are any legitimate "black swans".  It's that 99%+ aren't paying attention.  The GFC wasn't one.  When the Enron scandal broke and the company filed for bankruptcy (late 2001 I recall), the stock had already crashed to $14 from $90.  That's when the rating agencies downgraded it, once again closing the barn door after the horses bolted.  There may be exceptions, but I don't remember any and this pattern is absolutely the norm.

The GFC was definitely one, nobody saw The Reserve Fund breaking the buck because of a Lehman bankruptcy.  You had savvy bond guys at PIMCO telling their wives to get as much cash as they could from the ATM.  The global financial system almost had a heart attack.

I'd call Covid-19 another Black Swan.  Down 35% in 6 weeks is alot.

Edited August 4, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 8/4/2022 at 12:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The GFC was definitely one, nobody saw The Reserve Fund breaking the buck because of a Lehman bankruptcy.  You had savvy bond guys at PIMCO telling their wives to get as much cash as they could from the ATM.  The global financial system almost had a heart attack.

There were warning signs for well over a year, an example being the big declines in bank stocks well before Lehman..  It was a mania, the same mania we are in now.

On 8/4/2022 at 12:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'd call Covid-19 another Black Swan.  Down 35% in 6 weeks is alot.

The COVID economic response was an entirely voluntary event economically, with the politics mostly if not entirely driven by psychology.  There was no economic requirement to do it.  It was unprecedented and no one did it before.  Concurrently, many other countries shut down less (and maybe not at all) based upon their perception of the medical risks and affordability of the response.  The best explanation for the response in the US and many other countries is the belief that it was economically affordable, even though it required massive amounts of additional debt and "printing".

Edited August 4, 2022 by World Colonial

[EagleRJO]

On 6/16/2022 at 8:08 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

I will hereby publicly challenge anyone (and I mean anyone) to explain how crypto currencies generate revenue/profit in 1-2 sentences.  One catch, you can't use any derivative of speculation (i.e. it's the future of money, and all other money is going away).  How are we generating revenue today?

Okay, I'm not a Crypto guy or investor, but I will give it a shot at a total oversimplification just for fun, without the fiat reference, and I can do it with just one sentence:  Profit and loss is based on differences in valuation, with valuation resulting primarily from supply and demand. 

Seems to me that just like any other commodity, or more so for a "collectible" without any or very little inherent value (like some coins lol), given a fixed amount (e.g. 21 mil for Bitcoin) as demand increases so does price, and as demand decreases the price decreases.  And without a valuation that includes tangible things people can wrap their heads around, that can drop like a rock and then poof its completely gone into the ethers like some have. 

[Henri Charriere]

There are members on the Forum who are fluent in @EagleRJO's obscure dialect of garden-variety Esperanto. I guess I'll just have to wait for their translation of his awesome "total oversimplification."   

[EagleRJO]

@The Neophyte Numismatist did say "anyone ... and I mean anyone" so I figured why not. 

And here is the news story I read which got me thinking about this even though I'm not a Crypto person (although my son made a killing on I think Ethereum with a buy in 2019 at a ridiculous low) ... Most big cryptocurrencies decrease as Polkadot tumbles (msn.com)

Edited August 5, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Frank]

It I can't touch it, it ain't real.