What is DL Hansen’s Strategy? 0

[VKurtB]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Very informative, thanks for the info. 

Max Mehl died in 1957 so someone -- probably in their 20's or 30's if not older -- has to be in their 80's or 90's today.  My point being that the oldest generation of collectors who wanted pre-1933 Gold and other coins from the 1900's - 1950's should be getting up in age, if they haven't passed on already.  

So while I accept your statements as fact, I would still think that the supply of said walk-ins should be DROPPING today relative to 10 or 20 or 40 years ago.  I could be wrong, but I would think that by the early-1980's after a decade-plus of inflation and economic ups-and-downs, that most people who had hoards would have liquidated or sold.

Could be wrong, but hard to see how.

Maybe you should check out The Coin Show podcast. It is put out by Matt Dinger of Lost Dutchman Rare Coins of Indianapolis and Mike Nottelmann of Harlan Berk of Chicago. They put out an episode about every two weeks. Over 200 episodes so far. A regular feature is “the coolest thing to walk in” to each shop. Look, I know some towns don’t have a brick and mortar dealer, but many towns, like Lancaster, PA have several. Just 30 miles up US222 lies Reading, a larger and poorer town which has none, aside from a bullion house. 

[zadok]

On 9/17/2022 at 10:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Very informative, thanks for the info. 

Max Mehl died in 1957 so someone -- probably in their 20's or 30's if not older -- has to be in their 80's or 90's today.  My point being that the oldest generation of collectors who wanted pre-1933 Gold and other coins from the 1900's - 1950's should be getting up in age, if they haven't passed on already.  

So while I accept your statements as fact, I would still think that the supply of said walk-ins should be DROPPING today relative to 10 or 20 or 40 years ago.  I could be wrong, but I would think that by the early-1980's after a decade-plus of inflation and economic ups-and-downs, that most people who had hoards would have liquidated or sold.

Could be wrong, but hard to see how.

...u would be shocked at the number of collections n hoards i see in a year including pre '33 gold n pre 1900 proof issues...i appraise these collections for the county probate court prior to disposition, i probably see 15-20 major groupings of coins in any given year including maybe 200 or more of ur "classic" saints, usually in unc-gem bu, seldom any r circ n virtually none r certified....

[World Colonial]

On 9/17/2022 at 7:25 PM, zadok said:

...u would be shocked at the number of collections n hoards i see in a year including pre '33 gold n pre 1900 proof issues...i appraise these collections for the county probate court prior to disposition, i probably see 15-20 major groupings of coins in any given year including maybe 200 or more of ur "classic" saints, usually in unc-gem bu, seldom any r circ n virtually none r certified....

This makes sense in that it supports the variance between the TPG data and PCGS Coin Facts.  I consider Coin Facts usually too low (for the coins I have looked at) but it's often noticeably higher than the TPG data.

There is also a common perception about the TPG data being overstated due to duplicates.  Yes, I know it is, but this doesn't concurrently mean most of the better quality coinage has been submitted.  As usual, it just depends.

This week, I was looking on Heritage.  Early US federal silver and Capped Bust this time.  Much of the better coins is their virtual bourse where they often have multiples of the highest graded coins, sometimes five MS of the same date for draped bust dimes or half dimes (can't remember which one).  

If only 15 1802 half dimes are in a TPG holder now while the estimate is more than twice this number with this being a five figure coin at minimum, we can be almost certain there is a lot of most everything else out there.

[VKurtB]

Those who operate on the theory “all the good stuff is already in slabs”, even when it’s Jeff Garrett saying it, are simply wrong. There is so incredibly much stuff that has never been to Sarasota or SoCal, that it’s amazing. You have to stop assuming it’s not there and go where it is. 

[VKurtB]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Very informative, thanks for the info. 

Max Mehl died in 1957 so someone -- probably in their 20's or 30's if not older -- has to be in their 80's or 90's today.  My point being that the oldest generation of collectors who wanted pre-1933 Gold and other coins from the 1900's - 1950's should be getting up in age, if they haven't passed on already.  

So while I accept your statements as fact, I would still think that the supply of said walk-ins should be DROPPING today relative to 10 or 20 or 40 years ago.  I could be wrong, but I would think that by the early-1980's after a decade-plus of inflation and economic ups-and-downs, that most people who had hoards would have liquidated or sold.

Could be wrong, but hard to see how.

Maybe what you say here is true for some locales, but not where I came from. There are at least 10 active coin clubs, numerous collectibles auction houses, and brick and mortar dealers galore. Most of the best collections I have seen back home are still raw, frequently in stock or custom made Capital Plastics holders. Guys in the Red Rose Club (Lancaster) even had custom made Dansco albums. The “old school” hobby still exists out there. You just have to put the mouse down and s-l-o-w-l-y back away from the keyboard keeping your hands where I can see them. 

[VKurtB]

Yes, you have to be prepared to let your eyes metaphorically “kiss a lot of frogs” along the way too. But really fantastic raw material is still out there. 

[Henri Charriere]

  [With the OP's indulgence, What enquiring minds want to know--okay, mainly mine--is who can provide a breakdown of major coin attendees... by age?  Me thinks, judging by the photos roving correspondents have taken and transmitted via posts while on site, that the "population" is noticeably older and grayer. I realize this information is of the highest security classification attainable, but I am curious as to any extrapolations that may have been done. With many of the numismatic greats having retired, how much of an infusion of comparatively experienced new blood is needed to carry the hobby well into the mid-point and toward the end of this century?  Is it really true, the Greatest Collectors of all time can now be counted on one hand?  🤔

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/17/2022 at 7:25 PM, zadok said:

...i appraise these collections for the county probate court prior to disposition,....

[Is it safe to assume this is precisely the point the OP was addressing on his timely thread relating to any preparations collectors may have made for their heirs?  (It will be just my luck I divest myself of all my coins only to find out my doctor has given me a clean bill of health suggesting I can expect to be around, bereft of Roosters, for the next 20 years.)]     

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/17/2022 at 7:25 PM, zadok said:

...u would be shocked at the number of collections n hoards i see in a year including pre '33 gold n pre 1900 proof issues...i appraise these collections for the county probate court prior to disposition, i probably see 15-20 major groupings of coins in any given year including maybe 200 or more of ur "classic" saints, usually in unc-gem bu, seldom any r circ n virtually none r certified....

But more than 20 years ago ?  40 years ago ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/18/2022 at 12:17 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

  [With the OP's indulgence, What enquiring minds want to know--okay, mainly mine--is who can provide a breakdown of major coin attendees... by age?  Me thinks, judging by the photos roving correspondents have taken and transmitted via posts while on site, that the "population" is noticeably older and grayer. I realize this information is of the highest security classification attainable, but I am curious as to any extrapolations that may have been done. With many of the numismatic greats having retired, how much of an infusion of comparatively experienced new blood is needed to carry the hobby well into the mid-point and toward the end of this century?  Is it really true, the Greatest Collectors of all time can now be counted on one hand?  🤔

I paid keen attention to the last major show I went to, FUN 2020.  I would say the median/average age was in the 50's.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/17/2022 at 8:52 PM, VKurtB said:

Those who operate on the theory “all the good stuff is already in slabs”, even when it’s Jeff Garrett saying it, are simply wrong. There is so incredibly much stuff that has never been to Sarasota or SoCal, that it’s amazing. You have to stop assuming it’s not there and go where it is. 

But has the BULK -- the low hanging fruit -- been plucked ?  I think so.  Certainly relative to 1980 (PM bubble spike) and 1990 (coin bubble spike) and then you have 30 years since 1990 of folks needing cash, dying, inheriting, liquidating, etc.

[VKurtB]

On 9/17/2022 at 11:17 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

  [With the OP's indulgence, What enquiring minds want to know--okay, mainly mine--is who can provide a breakdown of major coin attendees... by age?  Me thinks, judging by the photos roving correspondents have taken and transmitted via posts while on site, that the "population" is noticeably older and grayer. I realize this information is of the highest security classification attainable, but I am curious as to any extrapolations that may have been done. With many of the numismatic greats having retired, how much of an infusion of comparatively experienced new blood is needed to carry the hobby well into the mid-point and toward the end of this century?  Is it really true, the Greatest Collectors of all time can now be counted on one hand?  🤔

Major coin show attendees are overwhelmingly older white men who suffer with a degree of excess weight. There are also families bringing their kids, or vice versa. That said, the current ANA president is an African American professional educator from Texas. 

Edited September 18, 2022 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 9/18/2022 at 9:57 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But has the BULK -- the low hanging fruit -- been plucked ?  I think so.  Certainly relative to 1980 (PM bubble spike) and 1990 (coin bubble spike) and then you have 30 years since 1990 of folks needing cash, dying, inheriting, liquidating, etc.

The low hanging fruit has been plucked, and this is a key point, what remains unplucked is very unevenly distributed. There are vast deserts and a relatively few overwhelmingly lush oases. 

[zadok]

On 9/18/2022 at 12:17 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

  [With the OP's indulgence, What enquiring minds want to know--okay, mainly mine--is who can provide a breakdown of major coin attendees... by age?  Me thinks, judging by the photos roving correspondents have taken and transmitted via posts while on site, that the "population" is noticeably older and grayer. I realize this information is of the highest security classification attainable, but I am curious as to any extrapolations that may have been done. With many of the numismatic greats having retired, how much of an infusion of comparatively experienced new blood is needed to carry the hobby well into the mid-point and toward the end of this century?  Is it really true, the Greatest Collectors of all time can now be counted on one hand?  🤔

...not true....

[zadok]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:55 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But more than 20 years ago ?  40 years ago ?

...definitely in both cases...there r more uncert coins than cert coins by far....

[zadok]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:57 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But has the BULK -- the low hanging fruit -- been plucked ?  I think so.  Certainly relative to 1980 (PM bubble spike) and 1990 (coin bubble spike) and then you have 30 years since 1990 of folks needing cash, dying, inheriting, liquidating, etc.

...theres probably 80 million morgan dollars still out there in gem bu that remain uncertified....

[VKurtB]

On 9/17/2022 at 11:17 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

  [With the OP's indulgence, What enquiring minds want to know--okay, mainly mine--is who can provide a breakdown of major coin attendees... by age?  Me thinks, judging by the photos roving correspondents have taken and transmitted via posts while on site, that the "population" is noticeably older and grayer. I realize this information is of the highest security classification attainable, but I am curious as to any extrapolations that may have been done. With many of the numismatic greats having retired, how much of an infusion of comparatively experienced new blood is needed to carry the hobby well into the mid-point and toward the end of this century?  Is it really true, the Greatest Collectors of all time can now be counted on one hand?  🤔

Great collections are acquired in anonymity and secrecy and disposed of with great fanfare. 

[World Colonial]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:57 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But has the BULK -- the low hanging fruit -- been plucked ?  I think so.  Certainly relative to 1980 (PM bubble spike) and 1990 (coin bubble spike) and then you have 30 years since 1990 of folks needing cash, dying, inheriting, liquidating, etc.

Compare PCGS Coin Facts estimates to the TPG data.  Maybe most of the most expensive (and highest quality) coins you follow are now graded but I don't follow it that closely.

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/18/2022 at 1:28 PM, zadok said:

...not true....

Hold on a minute.  Substantiate your position. You cannot leave unexploded ordnance and simply walk away without an explanation. Enquiring minds want to know. I want to know.  What's not true?  ["Funny how?  Like I am a clown here to amuse you?"]  Now I'll be up all nite thinking about this...

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/18/2022 at 1:18 PM, VKurtB said:

The low hanging fruit has been plucked, and this is a key point, what remains unplucked is very unevenly distributed. There are vast deserts and a relatively few overwhelmingly lush oases. 

Brilliantly stated and I agree. 

Sort of like oil finds the last 100 years....tons of elephant fields found ALL OVER the world, including the Middle East....the last 50 years, very few such fields but still nice giant fields here-and-there.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/18/2022 at 1:32 PM, zadok said:

...definitely in both cases...there r more uncert coins than cert coins by far....

QUALITY coins in top condition and/or rare coins (maybe in lower grades) like Saints, Morgans, etc ?

You think there's still lots out there ?  I respect your opinion, could be lots of folks out there in the shadows.  Look at all the holders of MCMVII High Reliefs...probably more than half of the 8,000-10,000 of them out there are unaccounted for.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/18/2022 at 1:36 PM, zadok said:

...theres probably 80 million morgan dollars still out there in gem bu that remain uncertified....

Wow...amazing.  Hope you are right.

Still hoping there's some hidden Saint hoards in some 3rd world banks. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/18/2022 at 3:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Compare PCGS Coin Facts estimates to the TPG data.  Maybe most of the most expensive (and highest quality) coins you follow are now graded but I don't follow it that closely.

I just think that most of the holders of pre-1950 coins (and especially pre-1933 gold)....have to have either passed on OR sold in their old age if they needed $$$...and if they DIDN'T need $$$ then they are probably savvy financially and either got their coins graded/appraised or gave them to someone who did.

Not an exact science, I admit.  I'm trying to be logical here.  

Let's fast-forward 20 years....let's assume we're all still here and on these forums (QA will be the Moderator by then !!  )....by then you figure EVERYBODY (or at least 99% by the actuarial tables) who was born BEFORE 1950 and certainly 1930 has passed on.  Their estates or kids or whoever got their assets has no interest in coins unless they're a coin collector....if they are, they almost certainly would get them graded or take them to a dealer....if they just want $$$, they sell ASAP.

Either way, the coins make their way to the public or their existence is made known. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 9/19/2022 at 1:06 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I just think that most of the holders of pre-1950 coins (and especially pre-1933 gold)....have to have either passed on OR sold in their old age if they needed $$$...and if they DIDN'T need $$$ then they are probably savvy financially and either got their coins graded/appraised or gave them to someone who did.

Not an exact science, I admit.  I'm trying to be logical here.  

Let's fast-forward 20 years....let's assume we're all still here and on these forums (QA will be the Moderator by then !!  )....by then you figure EVERYBODY (or at least 99% by the actuarial tables) who was born BEFORE 1950 and certainly 1930 has passed on.  Their estates or kids or whoever got their assets has no interest in coins unless they're a coin collector....if they are, they almost certainly would get them graded or take them to a dealer....if they just want $$$, they sell ASAP.

Either way, the coins make their way to the public or their existence is made known. 

...dont agree...theres a reason there is still so much pre-'33 gold in safety deposit boxes n selling it or grading it or making it public is not on the owners list of to-do items, most of these holdings r second n third generations, some as i made u aware of earlier r from as early as 1907, one of these reasons is people to this day simply do not trust the federal gov't...any of the actions u see happening makes these assets accountable...a big no-no....

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/19/2022 at 1:06 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm trying to be logical here....  

Let's fast-forward 20 years....let's assume we're all still here and on these forums (QA will be the Moderator by then !!  )....

Either way, the coins make their way to the public or their existence is made known. 

All I know is years from now when I am long gone, the guy emptying the change boxes at a local laundromat will have struck gold. Literally. Why? Because I did not heed the advice in the OP's other thread (heirs, etc.) in timely fashion. Woe is me!

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/19/2022 at 11:58 AM, zadok said:

...dont agree...theres a reason there is still so much pre-'33 gold in safety deposit boxes n selling it or grading it or making it public is not on the owners list of to-do items, most of these holdings r second n third generations, some as i made u aware of earlier r from as early as 1907, one of these reasons is people to this day simply do not trust the federal gov't...any of the actions u see happening makes these assets accountable...a big no-no....

But do you think that the amount of gold coins here is a big % relative to what is already known ?  

We know there's still "lots" (however you define it) of valuable coins including gold coins including pre-1933 U.S. gold in SDB's and other hidden locations.  But is it significant relative to what is already known ?

That's the $64,000 question. 

[zadok]

On 9/19/2022 at 11:05 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But do you think that the amount of gold coins here is a big % relative to what is already known ?  

We know there's still "lots" (however you define it) of valuable coins including gold coins including pre-1933 U.S. gold in SDB's and other hidden locations.  But is it significant relative to what is already known ?

That's the $64,000 question. 

...obviously a difficult question to quantify..."lots" "significant" ambiguous terms...but if i see couple hundred saints n several hundred other minor gold coins per year in my small town from just 2-3 dozen probate cases u can extrapolate that there r dozens of more estates that didnt go thru probate n then there r tens of thousands prob hundreds of thousands more smaller cities having similar numbers across the country maybe even more coins in the more wealthy areas...im saying i believe the uncertified coins outnumber the certified at this time n i dont think that will change anytime in the foreseeable future...as mentioned before most of the owners of these coins r not interested in making them known, dont trust our gov't n dont need the worthless cash...in our lifetimes it wouldnt surprise me that one of our political parties would try to re-do the '33 gold "theft" bamboozle again, soon as they print enuf worthless cash they will go after the hard stuff again...hence all the current efforts to establish audit trails on all of our purchases n the manpower to pursue these trails...the advice i give is use the worthless cash now to buy more of the hard stuff but dont put it in ur sdb's....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/17/2022 at 8:52 PM, VKurtB said:

Those who operate on the theory “all the good stuff is already in slabs”, even when it’s Jeff Garrett saying it, are simply wrong. 

Funny you should mention a prominent dealer.  On the other end of the mini-hoard debate, Doug Winter has been saying he's been seeing a steady drip out of Europe for years.  Liberty's, Saints, High Reliefs -- a few here, a few there and it has impacted pricing here in the States. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[DWLange]

Correction----Douglas Winter.

[Henri Charriere]

On 9/19/2022 at 1:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wow...amazing.  Hope you are right.

Still hoping there's some hidden Saint hoards in some 3rd world banks. 

Just your luck they'll be found in the Republic of Haiti!  Are you ready to take on the Tonton Macoutes? Don't look at me for help. I'm retired.