GSA Hoard Question/s 0

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 1/1/2023 at 9:52 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That's a real good point, Sandon ....it's easy to assume with 35 years of TPGs behind us that most GSA pieces would have been submitted by now but the numbers say otherwise.  Great catch.

Had to be hundreds of thousands of people who bought them....even if only TENS of thousands of them still have them in attics or buried with other junk.....you could be looking at 50,000 - 250,000 of these things ungraded.

I wonder if the dealers and investors active in buying/collecting realize that we could have YEARS of these things hitting the market in a few years, if not now ?   As these were purchased in the 1972-1980 time frame, you can expect to see them hit the market probably in the 2020-2035 time frame (when original buyers or inheritors from elderly parents) pass on.

I haven't seen ANYTHING regarding this hidden domestic hoard and potential supply.  Anybody else ?  

The same could be said for almost every coin ever produced, as time goes on more will surface, granted GSA Morgan's will be more plentiful than most.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/1/2023 at 10:06 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The same could be said for almost every coin ever produced, as time goes on more will surface, granted GSA Morgan's will be more plentiful than most.

I think what Sandon implied and what we've learned from other coins is....those GSA Morgans were purchased in the 1970's by people like us, our parents, and MAYBE our grandparents.  Only the latter has completely passed on by now.

Many people still have these things in their attics, in shoe boxes in their closet, etc.  You COULD see a few thousand per month stream out into local coins shops or Ebay or whatever for the next decade.  These aren't like expensive watches or jewelry that kids or heirs will keep when they inherit them or just find them in their parents homes. 

Unless they are into coin collecting or have a sentimental attachment to them, they're gonna just want to get rid of them I would think.

I see lots of articles in my professional field of finance and investing talking about the implications of huge amounts of financial assets transferring over the next few decades..but......I've never see anything of that sort in our hobby.  We've never dealt with it before, but maybe the PNG or ANA or a dealers trade group should be doing a study on this rather than folks like us just speculating without any hard numbers or past precedent to guide us.

[Rod D.]

Small sample size (1): my father-in-law has 5 GSA CCs in his closet. Original envelopes with his name and address.  Only got a peek at them once-10 years ago. If he passes them on to his children there is a 33% chance…

Fingers crossed! 

[RWB]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I see lots of articles in my professional field of finance and investing talking about the implications of huge amounts of financial assets transferring over the next few decades..but......I've never see anything of that sort in our hobby.  We've never dealt with it before, but maybe the PNG or ANA or a dealers trade group should be doing a study on this rather than folks like us just speculating without any hard numbers or past precedent to guide us.

That could be good. Sadly, none of those organizations have even the barest qualifications for designing or performing such research -- and they never had. American numismatics has little with respect to academic rigor. The closest it comes is the "rigor mortise" from persistent repetition of falsehoods.

Edited January 3, 2023 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/1/2023 at 10:06 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The same could be said for almost every coin ever produced, as time goes on more will surface, granted GSA Morgan's will be more plentiful than most.

Right...there's ALWAYS more coming out....but a few dozen a month against an existing population of millions is one thing for something like small U.S. denomination coins.  When you get a few hundred a month against a population of hundreds of thousands for certain Saint or Morgan dates/mints....it can impact pricing.

High Reliefs and common Saints from Europe over the last decade has been a steady trickle of coins...but steady...it adds up to pricing weakness.

Edited January 3, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2023 at 6:54 PM, Rod D. said:

Small sample size (1): my father-in-law has 5 GSA CCs in his closet. Original envelopes with his name and address.  Only got a peek at them once-10 years ago. If he passes them on to his children there is a 33% chance…

Fingers crossed! 

How old was your father-in-law when he bought them, Rod...or how old is he now ? 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2023 at 8:39 PM, RWB said:

That could be good. Sadly, none of those organizations have even the barest qualifications for designing or performing such research -- and they never had. American numismatics has little with respect to academic rigor. The closest it comes is the "rigor mortise" from persistent repetition of falsehoods.

They could hire a professional survey group to do a representative sample of households....like 10,000 or so.  That should yield statistical significance (they can talk to researchers at the Federal Reserve Board who do the Household Net Worth stuff, formerly known as the Flow Of Funds Data.  ).

Something like this:

Is anybody in your home a coin collector ?  How active are you/they ?  If you are NOT a coin collector, do you have some valuable coins that you saved, inherited, or are considering passing on to your children or heirs ?  Have you inherited any coins or do you expect to ?

What is your approximate family income, on average, in the last 5 years ?  What is your approximate financial net-worth, excluding primary residence ?  What is your age ?

Questions like that can be asked and answered in 5 minutes and yield very valuable information. 

 

[RWB]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

They could hire a professional survey group to do a representative sample of households....like 10,000 or so.  That should yield statistical significance (they can talk to researchers at the Federal Reserve Board who do the Household Net Worth stuff, formerly known as the Flow Of Funds Data.  ).

Something like this:

Is anybody in your home a coin collector ?  How active are you/they ?  If you are NOT a coin collector, do you have some valuable coins that you saved, inherited, or are considering passing on to your children or heirs ?  Have you inherited any coins or do you expect to ?

What is your approximate family income, on average, in the last 5 years ?  What is your approximate financial net-worth, excluding primary residence ?  What is your age ?

Questions like that can be asked and answered in 5 minutes and yield very valuable information. 

 

Nobody in the "coin business" has ever paid for objective scientific measurement unless they expected a profit. Back in his early days, Wally Breen was bought and sold like a common street tart.

Edited January 3, 2023 by RWB

[Rod D.]

Good question. I’m not sure if he bought them in the 70’s or 80’s. He is 83 years old.  Not a coin collector, but has a shoe box of silver and gold coins buried in the closet. I was just starting this hobby when he showed them to me.  

[Sandon]

   Many people likely wouldn't respond to a survey asking whether they own valuable coins due to security concerns.  

 

[Rod D.]

My father-in-law fits that profile. Not a coin collector, but he knows what he has.  Guessing there are a lot of people like that. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:35 PM, RWB said:

Nobody in the "coin business" has ever paid for objective scientific measurement unless they expected a profit. Back in his early days, Wally Breen was bought and sold like a common street tart.

Well, that is what a trade group like PNG or ANA or others are SUPPOSED to do.  This hobby/business needs some datapoints and it is up to them to get it.

What do they do all day, the ones making a nice living from donations, dues, endowments, etc.?   Can't sit on your butt all day talking about how you are going to "educate the public" or reduce "fraud" or enhance "security" at shows.

Time to provide useful information so folks like us don't have to speculate about whats, ifs, buts, this, that, estimates, anectodal stories, dealer says this, dealer says that, this article, that article....and we turn it into a 12 page thread. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:37 PM, Rod D. said:

Good question. I’m not sure if he bought them in the 70’s or 80’s. He is 83 years old.  Not a coin collector, but has a shoe box of silver and gold coins buried in the closet. I was just starting this hobby when he showed them to me.  

Well, assuming he didn't buy them from a dealer in the last 42 years, he got them sometime between 1972 and 1980.  That's when the government did the GSA Morgans.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:41 PM, Sandon said:

   Many people likely wouldn't respond to a survey asking whether they own valuable coins due to security concerns.  

The government statisticians, demographers, and survey affiliates know how to do it.  You either pay the people for the information and you assure confidentiality.

You could also do it via internet and/or regular mail.  You make a good point on the security issue but the Fed asks about detailed financial information -- and gets it.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:50 PM, Rod D. said:

My father-in-law fits that profile. Not a coin collector, but he knows what he has.  Guessing there are a lot of people like that. 

Lots of people though think the stuff they have is very valuable and it isn't.  Or it was at one time, and then it fell in price.

Didn't we have a dealer here post about some elderly gent who came in with stuff he paid thousands for...hoped it was worth tens of thousands.....and it was worth MAYBE $500 ?  That kind of stuff.

[Sandon]

    In 1974, when I was a young teenager, I could only afford the $15 to buy one "mixed years" coin, which turned out to be a "baggy" 1883-CC that would grade MS 61-62 by today's standards. I still have that coin, although I now regret having removed it from the holder so that it would take up less space in a safe deposit box. (I still have all the original packaging, including the holder, certificate, "Nixon" box, and shipping envelope.) 

   Some years later, I bought from dealers an 1881-CC and an 1884-CC, both uncertified and each grading approximately MS 63-64 in the original GSA holders and accompanied by the GSA "Nixon" boxes and certificates, although they may not be the boxes and certificates with which those particular coins were shipped. (The serial number on the certificate with the 1884-CC begins with "83", indicating it accompanied an 1883-CC.)  I doubt I will ever have these coins third-party certified.

   A longtime friend of mine bought an 1880-CC, which turned out to be an 8 over 7 overdate variety, and an 1884-CC in the original GSA sales in the 1970s. He hasn't been an active collector for many years but still owns these uncertified coins.

   

[RWB]

It appears most 1880-CC dollars are 80/79.

[VKurtB]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, that is what a trade group like PNG or ANA or others are SUPPOSED to do.  This hobby/business needs some datapoints and it is up to them to get it.

What do they do all day, the ones making a nice living from donations, dues, endowments, etc.?   Can't sit on your butt all day talking about how you are going to "educate the public" or reduce "fraud" or enhance "security" at shows.

Time to provide useful information so folks like us don't have to speculate about whats, ifs, buts, this, that, estimates, anectodal stories, dealer says this, dealer says that, this article, that article....and we turn it into a 12 page thread. 

The ANA is NOT A TRADE GROUP!!!!! Some people think it should be, but they’re wrong. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/3/2023 at 11:45 AM, VKurtB said:

The ANA is NOT A TRADE GROUP!!!!! Some people think it should be, but they’re wrong. 

Whatever they are, they represent numismatists, dealers, etc.....they can certainly start to provide useful information.

I was reading an article by Doug Winter from almost 10 years ago...even a well-connected guy like him had to guestimate and speculate on how many coins have been graded since the start of the TPGs.  We may not have exact numbers, but we should have SOME foundations upon which to work with.

[VKurtB]

On 1/4/2023 at 9:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Whatever they are, they represent numismatists, dealers, etc.....they can certainly start to provide useful information.

I was reading an article by Doug Winter from almost 10 years ago...even a well-connected guy like him had to guestimate and speculate on how many coins have been graded since the start of the TPGs.  We may not have exact numbers, but we should have SOME foundations upon which to work with.

You are seeking information that can never be accurately found. Between crossovers and resubmissions, and tight-lipped collectors, it can never be known. The crack out culture is far more prevalent than you could ever imagine. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

We CAN know how many submissions have been made. The top two firms brag on that incessantly. But how many coins they actually represent? Dream on. Unknowable. Every time I crack out a coin to place in my son’s literal Dansco 7070 album, the label gets taped onto the inside back cover, not reported to the TPGS. I also put together a 5-coin Morgan dollar “one per mint” set (P, D, S, O, CC) all in mint state in a Capitol Plastics holder. Two of those are crack outs, too. The labels are right there between the two lucite covers. 

[VKurtB]

On 1/4/2023 at 9:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Whatever they are, they represent numismatists, dealers, etc.....they can certainly sta

And where would you suggest they go to get that information? They are NOT the “coin police”, Roger’s opinion notwithstanding. Roger has CLEARLY spent too much time near the Capital. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by VKurtB

[Sandon]

On 1/3/2023 at 8:13 AM, RWB said:

It appears most 1880-CC dollars are 80/79.

   I understand that most or all 1880-CC dollars are overdates but that only the VAM 4 is referred to as an 80 over 79.  Other varieties are referred to as "8 over high 7" or "8 over low 7".  The Vamworld website refers to the remaining varieties as "dash under 8", the dash possibly being the remnant of an earlier 7 that had otherwise been polished out of the die.  

   The 1880-CC issue is especially rich in varieties.  In addition to the overdates, two varieties, including the 80 over 79, have the "Reverse of '78" with concave eagle's breast and parallel top arrow feather, which is the final use of this reverse style.  The "Reverse of '79" varieties include both small and large mint marks.

[RWB]

On 1/2/2023 at 10:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, that is what a trade group like PNG or ANA or others are SUPPOSED to do. 

These organizations, trade associations, chambers of commerce, etc. exist to promote commercial operations - they do not exist to investigate, improve, maintain ethical ideals, promote accuracy truth or honesty. Professional credential organizations do a little of that but only deal with the most egregious situations and only among their members.

The closest American Numismatics comes to having any meaningful science is when the Guide Book is accidentally shelved next to A Brief History of Time.

[RWB]

On 1/4/2023 at 2:07 PM, Sandon said:

   I understand that most or all 1880-CC dollars are overdates but that only the VAM 4 is referred to as an 80 over 79.  Other varieties are referred to as "8 over high 7" or "8 over low 7".  The Vamworld website refers to the remaining varieties as "dash under 8", the dash possibly being the remnant of an earlier 7 that had otherwise been polished out of the die.  

   The 1880-CC issue is especially rich in varieties.  In addition to the overdates, two varieties, including the 80 over 79, have the "Reverse of '78" with concave eagle's breast and parallel top arrow feather, which is the final use of this reverse style.  The "Reverse of '79" varieties include both small and large mint marks.

Yep, and 96,000 struck from July 1 to Sept 30 were destroyed.

That VAMpires ignore the others is a curiosity of their specialty.

"Bartender. Martini, dry, 1 olive, please."

"Sorry. sir. We're out of 1 olive. Would 2 olives be OK?"

"Sure, but hold the pimentos."

"Ah...can't do that, sir. The boss gets upset if I act personal with the peppers."

Edited January 4, 2023 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/4/2023 at 12:19 PM, VKurtB said:

You are seeking information that can never be accurately found. Between crossovers and resubmissions, and tight-lipped collectors, it can never be known. The crack out culture is far more prevalent than you could ever imagine. 

I'm not looking for perfection, just some guideposts and numbers that are within the ballpark, instead of out in the fringes of the auxillary parking lot. 

[GoldFinger1969]

If anybody wants to see the article in question from Doug Winter...it's called "What Percentage of Classic Rare U.S. Coins Have Been Graded by the Services?"  dated February 2013

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog?offset=1365440715000&category=Market+Blog

Scroll down about half-way to get to the article. 

Probably deserves it's own thread....

Edited January 4, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

On 1/4/2023 at 2:07 PM, Sandon said:

...remnant of an earlier 7 that had otherwise been polished out of the die. 

One cannot "polish out an earlier" digit from a die. That produces a coin lump the same height as the digit's depth. One has to fill the digit hole in the die, smooth and blend the filling, then punch in the correct digit. An alternative is to drill out the digit, insert a steel plug,  smooth and blend, then punch the new digit. The multitude of small variations suggests the Philadelphia Mint filled the unwanted digit(s). Same for O/CC reverse dies.

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by RWB

[Sandon]

    

On 1/4/2023 at 5:12 PM, RWB said:

One cannot "polish out an earlier" digit from a die.

    I recall having read in multiple sources that unwanted date digits, clash marks, and the like were "polished" from dies and wondered how this could be done without the die having an uneven surface or the die and coins struck from it having even more missing details than they sometimes do.  Thanks to @RWB for correcting this.

[VKurtB]

On 1/4/2023 at 2:59 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not looking for perfection, just some guideposts and numbers that are within the ballpark, instead of out in the fringes of the auxillary parking lot. 

It’s ALL gonna be out in the far out long term parking way out from the airport. That’s the best there is.