The 100 Year Test

[World Colonial]

5 minutes ago, allmine said:

if posting a Theorum, it doesn't do well to have the antithesis in another, separate part of your argument (it's like the NYT waiting until the 17th paragraph to provide a key nugget of information...)

I'm not trying to conduct a logical argument.

[kidrootbeer]

2 minutes ago, cladking said:

You are making blanket statements about "20th century coin" to which I disagree. 

I believe there are numerous 20th century coins that will be of interest in 100 years.  It's funny that the future is the only thing about which predictions are almost meaningless.  But, there's no reason to believe a beautiful Gem 1916 quarter will somehow get less interest than it does today just as it is hard to believe nobody will want a nice Gem '84 cent with nice surfaces.  The cent will tell the story of a society that throws away resources and its scarcity will show the low level of quality that is tolerated by a throw away mentality.  Many coins from the 20th century have stories to tell and are scarce. Why would they have no interest? 

You aren't predicting the future so much as you are engaging in wishful thinking and predicting the present. 

Numerous 20thC coins already are of interest, so let's say... Jefferson Nickels? Lately, Big Boom in collector interest since the days of the PAK Club...
and who pray tell paid, what, 10K for a 2011-D penny, I think it was? That, Friends, is a Numbers Game

[cladking]

9 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I'm not trying to conduct a logical argument.

That's just as well because I don't understand it or your conclusions.

I still don't know where you said Morgans are going to crash too or how the fate of the Morgan has any impact on the rest of the market for 20th century coins. 

I do understand your fear of speculative numismatic markets and to a large extent I share the same fear.  However, and make no mistake about this,  I don't believe all 20th century coins and Morgans are speculative markets.  Let the collectors decide what's speculation or worthy of study and assembly. 

[kidrootbeer]

3 minutes ago, cladking said:

That's just as well because I don't understand it or your conclusions.

I still don't where you said Morgans are going to crash too or how the fate of the dollar has any impact on the rest of the market for 20th century coins. 

I do understand your fear of speculation numismatic markets and to a large extent I share the same fear.  However, and make no mistake about this,  I don't believe all 20th century coins and Morgans are speculative markets.  Let the collectors decide what's speculation and worthy of study or assembly. 

maybe he means 21stC coins... ? 20thC is way too broad of a brush to whitewash that argument

[World Colonial]

2 minutes ago, cladking said:

You are making blanket statements about "20th century coin" to which I disagree. 

I believe there are numerous 20th century coins that will be of interest in 100 years.  It's funny that the future is the only thing about which predictions are almost meaningless.  But, there's no reason to believe a beautiful Gem 1916 quarter will somehow get less interest than it does today just as it is hard to believe nobody will want a nice Gem '84 cent with nice surfaces.  The cent will tell the story of a society that throws away resources and its scarcity will show the low level of quality that is tolerated by a throw away mentality.  Many coins from the 20th century have stories to tell and are scarce. Why would they have no interest? 

You aren't predicting the future so much as you are engaging in wishful thinking and predicting the present. 

If anyone has engaged in wishful thinking, it has been you.  Go read your own prior posts.

I know you disagree with my position, as I do with yours.  I also intended my initial post to be a blanket statement and I explicitly stated it.

I didn't say future collectors won't have any interest in all 20th century coins.  You chose to read that into my comments.  I am stating that I expect most of these coins to lose value from where they are today and in many instances, it will be most of it.

[kidrootbeer]

28 minutes ago, cladking said:

Indeed.  There were literally millions of rolls being saved but this market crashed in '64 when the date freeze was announced and then it crashed again from lower levels when the switch to clad occurred. 

So where are the clad rolls?

specifically, certain dates such as 1950-D Nickels went way, waaaay up and nearly just as soon crashed waaaaay down
Clad rolls: getting a C-Note for B/W 1965 (looking for Silver examples? Maybe, but the Quarters aren't enjoying the same attention)

[cladking]

I would expect things to be very different in 100 years.  It's impossible for a loaf of bread to cost more than an entire truck load of pennies.  In an infinite number of 2117 worlds there will be none with garbage dumps large enough to hold the raw materials of 100 earths.  It's impossible for current trends to continue because they fly in the face of natural logic and the natural world. 

But there's no reason to assume this means there will be no demand for old coins at that time.  I don't know what will exist then but I know humans collect things. 

[kidrootbeer]

"I didn't say future collectors won't have any interest in all 20th century coins.  You chose to read that into my comments.  I am stating that I expect most of these coins to lose value from where they are today and in many instances, it will be most of it. "

I think that, though, as long as Registry Sets command the landscape, people's behavior won't change (think back to cavemen "peeing contests")

[World Colonial]

4 minutes ago, cladking said:

That's just as well because I don't understand it or your conclusions.

I still don't where you said Morgans are going to crash too or how the fate of the dollar has any impact on the rest of the market for 20th century coins. 

I do understand your fear of speculative numismatic markets and to a large extent I share the same fear.  However, and make no mistake about this,  I don't believe all 20th century coins and Morgans are speculative markets.  Let the collectors decide what's speculation or worthy of study and assembly. 

Look, I included numerous themes in my original post and each one covers a complicated subject.  I had to generalize and not all of my six points apply equally to every coin.

For Morgan dollars, the financialization of collecting has probably been the biggest factor in the current price.  This was my point number three.  It applies somewhat to other coins (such as the highest grades and specialization in moderns) but a lot less

For other 20th century coins with far less financial buying, the biggest factors are probably demographic and general economics.  In the past, you have stated the passing of the baby boomers will likely adversely impact the pricing of recent classics.  I agree with this aspect of your claim even though I consider collector age mostly irrelevant in collector preferences.  A large percentage were bought in the pre-internet age and I see no reason why these coins will be preferred as much in the future as they have been in the past.  Even if I am mostly incorrect on these six themes, the marginal buyer will choose other coins (because the options are much greater) and since all prices are set at the margin, this will still adversely impact the price.  I believe this will apply not just to recent classics but yes, I expect the largest impact with these coins.

Economically, I expect most people (especially Americans) to be worse off or a lot worse off.  I agree with you that the coins you like aren't usually (if at all) a "mass market" but look at the recent (as in post 2008) price performance of many of the coins you like.  I don't follow them anywhere near as close as you do but from what I know including prior post exchanges with you, the US (not world) moderns haven't done much if any better than most classics and economic considerations are presumably a factor.  I can't predict that a 1984 cent or 1978 dime won't become more valuable or preferred (nor am I trying to do so with any specific coin) but I don't see how anyone can believe that poor economic conditions won't be a negative for pricing generally.

The reason you probably don't share my opinion on the level of imbedded speculation in coin prices is probably because you aren't familiar with the history of financial markets generally.  There is a lot of speculation in all the primary asset classes, it isn't recent and it's worldwide.  It's been going on for so long that most people don't  notice it.  What exists in financial markets isn't remotely normal.  It is the greatest asset, credit and debt mania in the history of civilization and yes, there has been a spillover effect into coins.

 

[World Colonial]

16 minutes ago, allmine said:

I think that, though, as long as Registry Sets command the landscape, people's behavior won't change (think back to cavemen "peeing contests")

Sure, it is a factor and presumably will continue to be.  Will it be as big of a factor on value in the future?  Not in my opinion.

[LINCOLNMAN]

1 hour ago, allmine said:

This, call it a Paradigm(?) One, is proven false by just MS65 Morgans: the supply is BagsHUGE yet they trade over $100.00

Literally millions of Morgans have been graded. Are you saying that you would bet that these will be of sufficient interest to people in 2117 to hold their relative value? For the purpose of extending a lively discussion, my personal opinion is that common MS64-65 Morgans are best used to throw at noisy neighborhood cats.

[LINCOLNMAN]

In support of modern collectors, we do need to allow for the possibility that modern coins may become rare. We can assume a high survival rate, which I myself think likely, but who knows, there may be a government wholesale destruction of coins to recover their metals, exempting "numismatic" items. I recall a precedent.  

[kidrootbeer]

22 minutes ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

Literally millions of Morgans have been graded. Are you saying that you would bet that these will be of sufficient interest to people in 2117 to hold their relative value? For the purpose of extending a lively discussion, my personal opinion is that common MS64-65 Morgans are best used to throw at noisy neighborhood cats.

 I was trying to say that MS65 Morgans disprove the Theory that buckets of the same coins graded aren't worth very much

[kidrootbeer]

50 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Sure, it is a factor and presumably will continue to be.  Will it be as big of a factor on value in the future?  Not in my opinion.

and therein lies the rub... BU Bankwrapped Wheaties Rolls were like a buck not too too long ago.
Who knows what will strike the Collectors fancies years, decades from now: Mint 33 1/3 RPMs? Clad Prooflike Roosies?

[LINCOLNMAN]

As a kind of diplomatic gesture, I will add that we have one thing that binds us all: nearly everyone we know thinks we're as mad as hatters.

[kidrootbeer]

2 hours ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

As a kind of diplomatic gesture, I will add that we have one thing that binds us all: nearly everyone we know thinks we're as mad as hatters.

and you know WHY Hatters are Mad (as opposed to being angry fellows)

[LINCOLNMAN]

4 minutes ago, allmine said:

and you know WHY Hatters are Mad (as opposed to being angry fellows)

Lead poisoning?

[World Colonial]

2 hours ago, allmine said:

 I was trying to say that MS65 Morgans disprove the Theory that buckets of the same coins graded aren't worth very much

I never made this claim since its obvious with coins having high population counts.  Aside from many Morgan dollars, all other "investment" coins where financial buying predominates are "worth a lot".  Examples include the 1995-W ASE, 1907 HR saint, multiple "key date" classic gold such as the 1911-D QE and 1929 eagle...with many more. 

[kidrootbeer]

14 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I never made this claim since its obvious with coins having high population counts.  Aside from many Morgan dollars, all other "investment" coins where financial buying predominates are "worth a lot".  Examples include the 1995-W ASE, 1907 HR saint, multiple "key date" classic gold such as the 1911-D QE and 1929 eagle...with many more. 

no no, I made that claim
I like the 11d 2.50 because it's available, and needed for the 2.50 Indian set which is one Gold Series set that can be completed without too much angst
The $5 Indian set falls into the same category EXCEPT for the 1929 (09o's do appear, albeit infrequently) which is NOT available, and will prob. cost you 30K for something not quite dug up in the backyard

[World Colonial]

3 hours ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

Literally millions of Morgans have been graded. Are you saying that you would bet that these will be of sufficient interest to people in 2117 to hold their relative value? For the purpose of extending a lively discussion, my personal opinion is that common MS64-65 Morgans are best used to throw at noisy neighborhood cats.

Financial buying is the best explanation for the current prices of most Morgan dollars.  "Key dates" have always been expensive to my knowledge but the others weren't until the 1970's when gold and silver were marketed widely as "investments".

It should be evident with the most common dates that, as popular as this series undeniably is, there aren't anywhere near enough collectors to absorb the supply at current prices without financial buying and one heck of a lot of it. 

The most common dates such as the 1881-S, 1883-O and 1884-O have several hundred thousand in the population counts.  The proportion of duplicates must be really low except in the highest grades because the price structure doesn't justify multiple submissions.  In some instances, there may be more "high" grade examples raw still available than graded.

If this is correct, then it's possible that 50% to 80% of the "high" grade supply is owned by "investors" through financial buying, not real collectors.  Some buyers are both but its likely many date/MM combinations are owned by the hundreds or even thousands by the same individual in grades of MS-65 or MS-66.

Prices have declined recently due to lower silver spot and presumably, the anemic economic "recovery" since the 2008 silver low and this during what arguably could be described as the loosest financial conditions in history.  Since the 1930's, there hasn't been any extended period of financial distress which is what I expect, though I presume hardly anyone else reading my comments does.  If it happens, the financial wind is going to be sucked out of most coin values and especially common Morgans.

[kidrootbeer]

1 minute ago, World Colonial said:

Financial buying is the best explanation for the current prices of most Morgan dollars.  "Key dates" have always been expensive to my knowledge but the others weren't until the 1970's when gold and silver were marketed widely as "investments".

It should be evident with the most common dates that, as popular as this series undeniably is, there aren't anywhere near enough collectors to absorb the supply at current prices without financial buying and one heck of a lot of it. 

The most common dates such as the 1881-S, 1883-O and 1884-O have several hundred thousand in the population counts.  The proportion of duplicates must be really low except in the highest grades because the price structure doesn't justify multiple submissions.  In some instances, there may be more "high" grade examples raw still available than graded.

If this is correct, then it's possible that 50% to 80% of the "high" grade supply is owned by "investors" through financial buying, not real collectors.  Some buyers are both but its likely many date/MM combinations are owned by the hundreds or even thousands by the same individual in grades of MS-65 or MS-66.

Prices have declined recently due to lower silver spot and presumably, the anemic economic "recovery" since the 2008 silver low and this during what arguably could be described as the loosest financial conditions in history.  Since the 1930's, there hasn't been any extended period of financial distress which is what I expect, though I presume hardly anyone else reading my comments does.  If it happens, the financial wind is going to be sucked out of most coin values and especially common Morgans.

a lot of conjecture, which is OK, but I'd ameliorate the argument  with knowledge that Certification has turned 'Collecting' on its collective head, and nothing will ever be the same

[World Colonial]

3 hours ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

In support of modern collectors, we do need to allow for the possibility that modern coins may become rare. We can assume a high survival rate, which I myself think likely, but who knows, there may be a government wholesale destruction of coins to recover their metals, exempting "numismatic" items. I recall a precedent.  

At some point, US moderns will be removed from circulation through mass melting if (more like when) coins are demonetized or the current denominations are discontinued.  It's already happened in several other countries.

Whether this will create new "rarity" is a matter or conjecture and definition.  As long as collecting remotely remains as popular as it is today, it won't in the US by my definition.

[kidrootbeer]

2 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Whether this will create new "rarity" is a matter or conjecture and definition.  As long as collecting remotely remains as popular as it is today, it won't by my definition.

'Collecting' will never die (remember: we started out as Hunter-Gatherers); what will be collected in the future is waaaaay up for grabs

[World Colonial]

12 minutes ago, allmine said:

a lot of conjecture, which is OK, but I'd ameliorate the argument  with knowledge that Certification has turned 'Collecting' on its collective head, and nothing will ever be the same

My estimates (percentages and number ungraded) are conjecture.  My primary point cannot be disputed that there is substantial buying in this series, by both colelctors and "investors".

If you disagree, then my estimate of the collector base must be much lower than yours, as I see no possibility that a substantial minority own any of these single dates such as the 1881-S.

As for certification, I am aware of the impact since it's one of the primary factors contributing to financial buying.  It's important but not remotely as important as the factors I originally listed.

[kidrootbeer]

Certification has, like Facebook, fundamentally transformed, even metamorphosed, an old usual into something unrecognizable 30-odd years ago

whether we argue its merits or not, a Certified MS65 1881-S Morgan will still set you back $100

[World Colonial]

9 minutes ago, allmine said:

'Collecting' will never die (remember: we started out as Hunter-Gatherers); what will be collected in the future is waaaaay up for grabs

Coin collector preferences are not arbitrary.  I demonstrated it in the past and I can give you the same examples here.  There has been no change in the preference order among US series since I started collecting in 1975.  If any occurred prior to that, someone else can provide the evidence to support it.  There has also been no change in preference among the Spanish colonial coins I collect either.  Pillars (my series) are more popular than Bustos and less popular than cobs and royals, just as they were before.  Ancient Greek and Roman are more popular than Byzantine now and given the survival rates and condition, have been since at least the beginning of modern collecting even accounting for hoards.  Given the same or similar attributes, gold coinage is preferred over silver and both are preferred over base metals.  Larger coins of the same design have always been preferred over smaller ones and worth more, for their relative scarcity.

How do I know this?  The prices demonstrate it.

[World Colonial]

11 minutes ago, allmine said:

Certification has, like Facebook, fundamentally transformed, even metamorphosed, an old usual into something unrecognizable 30-odd years ago

whether we argue its merits or not, a Certified MS65 1881-S Morgan will still set you back $100

I am aware of this fact.

What I am telling you is that if financial conditions experience more than a temporary tightening and/or the economic prospects of most US collectors decline long term as I expect for the US population generally, certification in and of itself won't be remotely enough to offset what I am describing. 

Of the $100 price for a MS-65 Morgan dollar, I'd say about $75 of it is due to financial buying, due to both certification and silver speculation.  We can debate the likely amount but whether somewhat more or somewhat less, this coin (like many others) certainly doesn't have its current price as a result of its relative merits as a collectible, even when compared to other US coins, never mind those from elsewhere.  It's as common as a grain of sand on the beach in "high grade".

The main counterpoint I can use to advocate a future stable or higher price for this coin and others like it is higher metal prices, since at some point (long before 2117), I expect a massive bull market in gold and silver spot.  However, even with this assumption, the premium will still decline under my other assumptions because most people will still be poorer or a lot poorer.  Ultimately, in any country with a "mass market" such as the US, numismatic coins are collectible trinkets whose value is dependent upon economic affluence.

[LINCOLNMAN]

42 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

because most people will still be poorer or a lot poorer

Sadly, it may be the case that the poorer the population becomes, the more susceptible they may be to "desperate" investment vehicles. Just a guess, but I would bet that the buyers of common coins from the TV and other hucksters are those least able to afford the ultimate hit, once these programs run out of steam. Of course, these schemes are blips, but they are repeated. One can't ignore manipulation, ignorance and greed as factors.

[kidrootbeer]

1 hour ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

Sadly, it may be the case that the poorer the population becomes, the more susceptible they may be to "desperate" investment vehicles. Just a guess, but I would bet that the buyers of common coins from the TV and other hucksters are those least able to afford the ultimate hit, once these programs run out of steam. Of course, these schemes are blips, but they are repeated. One can't ignore manipulation, ignorance and greed as factors.

State Lotteries & Scratch Tickets are very popular in lower-income areas

[LINCOLNMAN]

3 hours ago, allmine said:

State Lotteries & Scratch Tickets are very popular in lower-income areas

Indeed, hope springs....