Most undervalued and overvalued ASE-Opinions?

[mackbrass]

What would you say are the most undervalued and overvalued ASE on the market today?

This can be based on condition rarity, current values or availability.

 

For overvalued i would say the following:

2006 MS70 West Point burnished, not the lowest mintage but from the 3pc set in grade 70 is ridiculous.

 

1995 W Proof, in grade 69 these start at 3500+, rare but not scarce.

 

For undervalued:

2011 S Burnished, only S mint burnished and less than 100k minted.

 

2008 rev of 2007, only major variety that exists for the series. In ms69 very reasnable pricing.

 

2013 Enhanced finish, the only enhanced ASE ever minted and in grade 70 can be had for 100 bucks.

 

Thoughts?

 

Also, if there was one ASE you would load up on what would it be and why?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[physics-fan3.14]

Most overvalued: anything "graded", or in any TPG plastic.

 

Most undervalued: anything below spot.

[Mohawk]

Well.....I honestly cannot think of a single ASE that I would consider undervalued in the present market. In the greater scheme of things, there is no ASE that can be considered truly rare, only "rare" in the context of the series and in the face of present demand. However, there are several that I feel are overvalued for sure. The main one I can think of is the 1995-W. That coin sells for ridiculous money at present, and it's almost entirely demand driven rather than a result of true rarity. If the day comes that the demand level for ASEs drops, which I feel that it will, that coin is going to plummet.

 

I would argue that this is true of any ASE. The demand for these is insane....at the present time. I remember a time when the 2001-S Proof Sacagawea Dollar regularly sold for over $100. Try to get that price for them now. It will never happen. The same thing could happen with ASEs, especially any that sell for an insane premium. If a collector likes them for what they are, then they should absolutely collect them, but I don't like them for the long term from an investing/value holding perspective. And I practice what I preach. I have a couple ASEs in my Fountainhead Collection Custom Set and that's it. I also sell a lot of modern US coins, mainly varieties, but I almost never stock ASE's because their pricing at present makes me very nervous.

 

So those are my thoughts on the ASE issue.

~Tom

[Conder101]

The main one I can think of is the 1995-W. That coin sells for ridiculous money at present, and it's almost entirely demand driven rather than a result of true rarity. If the day comes that the demand level for ASEs drops, which I feel that it will, that coin is going to plummet.

How is that different from any coin? It doesn't matter how rare something is, if the demand is slight so is the price/value. So most coin prices are demand driven.

[World Colonial]

The main one I can think of is the 1995-W. That coin sells for ridiculous money at present, and it's almost entirely demand driven rather than a result of true rarity. If the day comes that the demand level for ASEs drops, which I feel that it will, that coin is going to plummet.

 

How is that different from any coin? It doesn't matter how rare something is, if the demand is slight so is the price/value. So most coin prices are demand driven.

 

The 1995-W ASE is particularly vulnerable to a falloff in demand because it's price is totally disproportionate to both its scarcity and availability. The price of all coins is ultimately demand driven but in practically every other instance, they aren't remotely as overpriced based upon both their scarcity and their numismatic merits.

 

Even though I rate the 1995-W as one of the most overpriced coins on the planet, I suspect nothing short of the deflationary depression I consider likely "eventually" will cause it to collapse. Longer term, I am bullish on the metals and I suspect it will continue to be bought by some speculators (aka, "investors") as a metal substitute. However, even if it doesn't collapse, I expect its relative performance to be poor.

 

On the different finishes such as burnished and reverse proof, I consider them gimmicks but don't know the proportion of ASE collectors who include them. Regardless, I wouldn't compare their mintages to those of the traditional finishes. The same applies to any die varieties.

[CO Collector]

Do you think spot silver is headed "to da moon!" ?

 

Then ALL bullion-priced ASEs are under-valued.

 

Apparently a lot of people think so. Over 40 million ASEs minted each year 2013-2015.

 

And 2016 1st-quarter sales are up 23% over last year: http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/bgascmetals/2016/04/06/march-2016-american-silver-eagle-sales-up-17-year-over-year-n2143812/page/full

 

 

[mackbrass]

Do you think spot silver is headed "to da moon!" ?

 

Then ALL bullion-priced ASEs are under-valued.

 

Apparently a lot of people think so. Over 40 million ASEs minted each year 2013-2015.

 

And 2016 1st-quarter sales are up 23% over last year: http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/bgascmetals/2016/04/06/march-2016-american-silver-eagle-sales-up-17-year-over-year-n2143812/page/full

 

 

You bring up a good point, if you think spot will sky rocket then yes, they are all undervalued. What if spot doesn't move and just hangs or even drops, then i guess they are all over valued. Dont get me wrong, i have a fair share of ASE tubes and each year i say i will never buy them again, but each year i alway add a few more. Heck, i just bought 4 tubes from our local coin shop for 2 bucks over spot last friday.

[mumu]

Most overvalued: anything "graded", or in any TPG plastic.

 

Most undervalued: anything below spot.

 

You forgot "anything free" as undervalued.

[#]

NLI

[KMAG100]

The main one I can think of is the 1995-W. That coin sells for ridiculous money at present, and it's almost entirely demand driven rather than a result of true rarity. If the day comes that the demand level for ASEs drops, which I feel that it will, that coin is going to plummet.

 

How is that different from any coin? It doesn't matter how rare something is, if the demand is slight so is the price/value. So most coin prices are demand driven.

 

 

Even though I rate the 1995-W as one of the most overpriced coins on the planet, I suspect nothing short of the deflationary depression I consider likely "eventually" will cause it to collapse. Longer term, I am bullish on the metals and I suspect it will continue to be bought by some speculators (aka, "investors") as a metal substitute. However, even if it doesn't collapse, I expect its relative performance to be poor.

 

From a historical perspective when in a depression or down stock market cycle is when you see coin prices rise as investors look for hard assets to put their money in. I agree a deflationary cycle will hit commodities prices hard, however the hard asset classes tend to do ok.

 

I would expect the softest prices for coins in general to be during an inflationary cycle of 2%- 3.5% inflation, and GDP growth up around 4%-5%. In this type of economic environment many other investments will present better near term opportunities than bullion coins. Conversely, during poor economic cycles with negative GDP growth, and the real interest rate negative, I would expect the strongest pricing for bullion and other coins by the entrance of investors into the coin markets.

[World Colonial]

From a historical perspective when in a depression or down stock market cycle is when you see coin prices rise as investors look for hard assets to put their money in. I agree a deflationary cycle will hit commodities prices hard, however the hard asset classes tend to do ok.

 

I would expect the softest prices for coins in general to be during an inflationary cycle of 2%- 3.5% inflation, and GDP growth up around 4%-5%. In this type of economic environment many other investments will present better near term opportunities than bullion coins. Conversely, during poor economic cycles with negative GDP growth, and the real interest rate negative, I would expect the strongest pricing for bullion and other coins by the entrance of investors into the coin markets.

 

I am not aware of any evidence to support that coin or metal prices perform contra cyclically in a depression. Gold rose during the 1930's because the government fixed the price but silver prices crashed. I have never seen any data for coin prices but don't believe there is any support that they rose either.

 

During the recent "Great Recession", the only reason I believe coin prices did not crash is because it was temporary. So those who could afford to do so just waited it out. All assets prices fell during the 2008-2009 bear market (including metals) except for the US dollar.

 

The only reason I have any optimism toward most coin prices longer term is because I expect metals to soar later at some point. However, I concurrently expect most people to become poorer or a lot poorer which means that the coins most people can afford to buy today will not be remotely affordable later at current prices.