Technology and Coins...

[TonerGuy]

It will be interesting to see which large company (auction house, show promoter perhaps even the ANA) will incorporate new technology into the coin industry.

 

To an extent, Heritage and other auction sites have done a little already with live streaming and live auction bidding.

 

Im actually shocked no one has done a virtual live bourse yet so visitors that cannot fly to FUN, Long Beach, ANA Show ect, can actually attend and walk the floor.

 

I just tested an Oculus Rift 360 degree 3D device today ( https://www.oculus.com/ ) and it was quite amazing. I was on stage with Paul McCartney ( http://thenextweb.com/insider/2014/11/20/paul-mccartney-jaunt-release-awesome-360-degree-concert-video-google-cardboard/ ) and it was unbelievable.

 

At some point live streaming will come to Oculus Rift and instead of having a dealer look for coins you can have a personal shopper walk the bourse add a credit card and ta-da - no need to fly in just to see the floor. Well maybe it will start with auctions. I can see Heritage incorporating something like this before CU jumps on it.

 

It might be 10 yrs off ( Oculus Rift hasnt even been released to consumers yet just developers) in coins but it will be a game changer in so many other areas - gaming, entertainment, concerts, sporting events, ect. How cool would it be to watch the Superbowl in 360 3D from several locations on the field including the field itself and you can toggle in between locations.

[jpcienkus]

The Oculus Rift 360 degree 3D device sounds cool. What was it like?

 

Incorporating this option at a live auction house would be a great idea. I could see Heritage being the 1st to offer this technology.

[njf]

I find the younger you are, the better you adapt to new technology. Numismatics isn't exactly overwhelmed with young people imo. I would like to see new technology, but it would have to be a seamless upgrade with no special hardware requirements. If it does take off and some of the older coin guys need me to buy/sell for them, I'll volunteer as tribute.

[Raisethis2]

The general consensus is that numismatics is a very high percentage, old men dominated hobby. Accordingly, things like technology being added to the mix will experience pushback at every turn.

 

On the other hand, to attract young people to the hobby technology is an absolute must. These things are right around the corner and will be great for the hobby (and therefore, the old men). . The trick will be to get young people interested in the "in hand" experience before they would care to "virtually" walk the floor and to get the old timers to do their part to make that happen.

[njf]

Not to mention that younger people's income potential doesn't look great at the moment. I don't think people will spend time and resources to sell less expensive coins.

[RWB]

Why not eliminate all human contact? Heck, eliminate the real coins and just do ersatz materials so people, or what's left of them, can 'interact' from their isolated media holes?

 

Numismatics is very thin on technology, largely because it is economically small and offers little opportunity for revenue from innovation. Thousands of specialists and millions of distinctive items are impossible to integrate into a meaningful experience.There are many technological changes that could be made; however, they should be directed toward bringing real people together and engaging people, not in isolating them.

 

Changing the way shows are organized and presented would do much more than Oculus, Noculus, Homunculus, and Floculus combined.

[brg5658]

I think 10 years is overly-optimistic. Heck, 10 years ago, they were saying that virtual reality was going to change everything. I usually multiply such estimates by 3 to 5, and usually err on the upper side.

 

In your Superbowl scenario, while it would be "cool" to do what you say, before it is "normal" practice for someone to do it will depend on a lot of things. Just to name a few: 1) the technology needs to come down in price by orders of magnitude, 2) the hardware and viewing apparatuses would need to become less clunky and more integrated, and 3) we'd have to hope that internet speeds aren't throttled or set on governors and a mentality of "pay by the terabyte of broadband" mentality hasn't taken over.

 

Also, such a scenario loses the essence of what a Superbowl party is (i.e., a masculine ritual of beer, salty snacks, and a violent sport). Just because a technology is possible doesn't mean the public will adopt it (and pay for it) and that it becomes probable in 10 years.

[TonerGuy]

I think 10 years is overly-optimistic. Heck, 10 years ago, they were saying that virtual reality was going to change everything. I usually multiply such estimates by 3 to 5, and usually err on the upper side.

 

In your Superbowl scenario, while it would be "cool" to do what you say, before it is "normal" practice for someone to do it will depend on a lot of things. Just to name a few: 1) the technology needs to come down in price by orders of magnitude, 2) the hardware and viewing apparatuses would need to become less clunky and more integrated, and 3) we'd have to hope that internet speeds aren't throttled or set on governors and a mentality of "pay by the terabyte of broadband" mentality hasn't taken over.

 

Also, such a scenario loses the essence of what a Superbowl party is (i.e., a masculine ritual of beer, salty snacks, and a violent sport). Just because a technology is possible doesn't mean the public will adopt it (and pay for it) and that it becomes probable in 10 years.

 

If you think we are 50 yrs away from VR then you are way off. As for your second paragraph - I agree 100%. The OR device I tested was clunky but that will improve. Price will come down and I dont know if Internet speed will be an issue. For a live event it might, for everything else it wont since those files will be downloaded and will sit on your computer as its played. Only your computer CPUs potential will be a factor.

 

The military and teaching applications for OR are immense. I would love to attend ANA seminar courses but I just dont have time to do so. To have an interactive 3D 360 course that I could purchase and attend would be a huge advantage. I dont particular care for DVD courses or even online courses. It lacks the live interactive aspect. And with 3D 360 HD video you can really see everything a professor might be discussing in regards to a coin.

 

Its all about profits and the potential for profit with new technology is quite high in the industry. Its going to require some of the younger numismatist to see that and move some of the older executives who are still in decision making positions to implement them.

 

Why not eliminate all human contact? Heck, eliminate the real coins and just do ersatz materials so people, or what's left of them, can 'interact' from their isolated media holes?

 

Numismatics is very thin on technology, largely because it is economically small and offers little opportunity for revenue from innovation. Thousands of specialists and millions of distinctive items are impossible to integrate into a meaningful experience.There are many technological changes that could be made; however, they should be directed toward bringing real people together and engaging people, not in isolating them.

 

Changing the way shows are organized and presented would do much more than Oculus, Noculus, Homunculus, and Floculus combined.

 

Yes please tell Heritage that they have seen little economic impact from online auctions and live bidding. Perhaps they should shut down their website, send out catalogs again and only allow in-person bids. Lets not even use that new fangled technology called telephones that allow people to call in bids.

 

Oh yeah you write books. Are your books even available for electronic download ? Or is that technologically too advanced ?

 

The Oculus Rift 360 degree 3D device sounds cool. What was it like?

 

Incorporating this option at a live auction house would be a great idea. I could see Heritage being the 1st to offer this technology.

 

It was amazing to say the least. Its going to take some time to get to the point where it can be incorporated into live events but it can really heighten the experience for any user. You truly get a feeling as though you are standing there on stage with Sir Paul.

[asdfgh]

Shows frown on photography why would they open themselves up to live video showing customers at dealer tables. I myself would not want to be on camera purchasing coins.

[RWB]

 

Yep. All are available electronically except where copyright restrictions prevent it.

[brg5658]

I think 10 years is overly-optimistic. Heck, 10 years ago, they were saying that virtual reality was going to change everything. I usually multiply such estimates by 3 to 5, and usually err on the upper side.

 

In your Superbowl scenario, while it would be "cool" to do what you say, before it is "normal" practice for someone to do it will depend on a lot of things. Just to name a few: 1) the technology needs to come down in price by orders of magnitude, 2) the hardware and viewing apparatuses would need to become less clunky and more integrated, and 3) we'd have to hope that internet speeds aren't throttled or set on governors and a mentality of "pay by the terabyte of broadband" mentality hasn't taken over.

 

Also, such a scenario loses the essence of what a Superbowl party is (i.e., a masculine ritual of beer, salty snacks, and a violent sport). Just because a technology is possible doesn't mean the public will adopt it (and pay for it) and that it becomes probable in 10 years.

 

If you think we are 50 yrs away from VR then you are way off. As for your second paragraph - I agree 100%. The OR device I tested was clunky but that will improve. Price will come down and I dont know if Internet speed will be an issue. For a live event it might, for everything else it wont since those files will be downloaded and will sit on your computer as its played. Only your computer CPUs potential will be a factor.

 

The military and teaching applications for OR are immense. I would love to attend ANA seminar courses but I just dont have time to do so. To have an interactive 3D 360 course that I could purchase and attend would be a huge advantage. I dont particular care for DVD courses or even online courses. It lacks the live interactive aspect. And with 3D 360 HD video you can really see everything a professor might be discussing in regards to a coin.

 

Its all about profits and the potential for profit with new technology is quite high in the industry. Its going to require some of the younger numismatist to see that and move some of the older executives who are still in decision making positions to implement them.

 

I don't think we're 50 years away from today, but from the time it was first "hyped" as the technology of the future (at least since the mid-1980s) to its actual adoption and prevalent use will probably be at least 50 years. The military has been using "simulator" type reality training since the 1960s...so from that standpoint we're already at the 50-year mark.

 

Now the use and adoption of this technology in a field as obscure and old-fashioned as coin collecting is a whole other hypothesis all together. In my lifetime (and I'm 35 years old -- so a good 45 years left I hope), I don't project there ever being the potential to go to a "coin show" virtually. The demand simply isn't there for such a large undertaking of energy to create that virtual world. Why would a dealer want to participate -- I see little if any motivating factors to get people to buy-in. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable -- I seriously doubt it.

 

With regard to your argument that things will only be limited by your CPU, that may be true, but then you're basically playing a video game, right? I think you'll have a hard time finding investors to back your software that creates a "virtual" coin show, where you can pick up items and view them "in hand" -- sounds like a terribly boring experience compared to the REAL experience. The real "sexy" applications are live-cast ones. Would I want to see a live concert virtually -- sure, sounds pretty cool actually. Would I want to go to a "coin show" virtually -- no...I'd probably rather watch paint dry.

 

Just my opinions as someone who works in the "technology" field and is (as coin collectors go) relatively young. I'll believe it when I see it...until then, keep working on entertainment applications, video games, and military simulations.

[Conder101]

If you have truly seamless high quality virtual reality, why would they even have physical coin shows? As online live bidding has become more prevalent actual attendance at live auctions has declined. More and more bidders are choosing to participate online instead, even if they have attended the convention.

 

With the high quality VR why go to the expense of traveling to FUN or the ANA? Just attend and walk the floor via VR. But with fewer and fewer people actually attending the shows it become harder and harder to justify traveling to them for the dealers as well. So the next step becomes the virtual coin show. No one attends a show, they just log online and the VR people can "move" from dealer to dealer and view their wares with no one having to leave home. The physical show declines, but you can have the equivalent of a virtual FUN show every weekend.

[brg5658]

If you have truly seamless high quality virtual reality, why would they even have physical coin shows? As online live bidding has become more prevalent actual attendance at live auctions has declined. More and more bidders are choosing to participate online instead, even if they have attended the convention.

 

With the high quality VR why go to the expense of traveling to FUN or the ANA? Just attend and walk the floor via VR. But with fewer and fewer people actually attending the shows it become harder and harder to justify traveling to them for the dealers as well. So the next step becomes the virtual coin show. No one attends a show, they just log online and the VR people can "move" from dealer to dealer and view their wares with no one having to leave home. The physical show declines, but you can have the equivalent of a virtual FUN show every weekend.

 

...the next steps are then just virtual dealers...the ones with no actual inventory of coins, but with virtual inventory...maybe they can then send over to me a virtual slab once I send them my very real money?

 

I don't get it.

 

 

[TonerGuy]

Shows frown on photography why would they open themselves up to live video showing customers at dealer tables. I myself would not want to be on camera purchasing coins.

 

You can shoot it without disturbing the privacy of others. And there are cameras at all major shows, usually news cameras covering something at the event.

 

Just my opinions as someone who works in the "technology" field and is (as coin collectors go) relatively young. I'll believe it when I see it...until then, keep working on entertainment applications, video games, and military simulations.

 

Sorry Im not a software developer. I have clients and friends that are though. OR is one of the things they are working on.

 

Holographic broadcasts are another... which is even more interesting than OR but I just dont see a correlation with coins though.

 

If you have truly seamless high quality virtual reality, why would they even have physical coin shows? As online live bidding has become more prevalent actual attendance at live auctions has declined. More and more bidders are choosing to participate online instead, even if they have attended the convention.

 

With the high quality VR why go to the expense of traveling to FUN or the ANA? Just attend and walk the floor via VR. But with fewer and fewer people actually attending the shows it become harder and harder to justify traveling to them for the dealers as well. So the next step becomes the virtual coin show. No one attends a show, they just log online and the VR people can "move" from dealer to dealer and view their wares with no one having to leave home. The physical show declines, but you can have the equivalent of a virtual FUN show every weekend.

 

This is actually becoming far more prevalent in the convention world.

 

See https://www.utherverse.net/index.html

 

This virtual convention software can be combined easily with a OR head-set. Saves companies a lot of money on flights, hotel rooms and food costs for attending an actual convention. Especially the smaller ones. Obviously with something like CES this would be ridiculous to try. But for something small like a coin show or even a smaller ANA convention it would be rather easy to set up a separate virtual show for those that cant or dont want to attend the real show.

 

As an aside, some people are physically limited in regards to traveling and attending shows and miss out on the experience because they cannot physically get on a plane and walk a show floor.

 

Having a VR alternative with 360 3D technology can open a whole new world for those not as fortunate as some of us with fully functioning bodies.

 

Just a thought...

 

TarnishGuy --

Yep. All are available electronically except where copyright restrictions prevent it. Of course, the real question is have you read any of them and did you learn anything ? From your attitude, I think not.

 

I did read your Peace $ book and I did learn quite a bit from it. (I will remove my remark to you since you were gentlemanly enough to remove it from your original post)

[mtnstyne]

If you have truly seamless high quality virtual reality, why would they even have physical coin shows? As online live bidding has become more prevalent actual attendance at live auctions has declined. More and more bidders are choosing to participate online instead, even if they have attended the convention.

 

With the high quality VR why go to the expense of traveling to FUN or the ANA? Just attend and walk the floor via VR. But with fewer and fewer people actually attending the shows it become harder and harder to justify traveling to them for the dealers as well. So the next step becomes the virtual coin show. No one attends a show, they just log online and the VR people can "move" from dealer to dealer and view their wares with no one having to leave home. The physical show declines, but you can have the equivalent of a virtual FUN show every weekend.

 

...the next steps are then just virtual dealers...the ones with no actual inventory of coins, but with virtual inventory...maybe they can then send over to me a virtual slab once I send them my very real money?

 

I don't get it.

 

 

If I buy the virtual coin am I able to print it on my 3D printer? I see you can now use metal and working guns are being produced so why not precious metals as well?

[RWB]

Alchemy.

 

 

[MarkVIIIMarc]

My phone can already stream live video of whatever coin and I think I can film in HD and email it around off the same phone. Not to mention booring pictures. To me it seems the technology is not so far away but streamlining it so people feel like using it is.

[Conder101]

For a live event it might, for everything else it wont since those files will be downloaded and will sit on your computer as its played. Only your computer CPUs potential will be a factor.

And how many gigabytes (Terabytes?) will those files be? Would seem to me that to be able to see everything in HD 360 degrees and from any or at least multiple viewpoints those files would be huge.

[brg5658]

For a live event it might, for everything else it wont since those files will be downloaded and will sit on your computer as its played. Only your computer CPUs potential will be a factor.

And how many gigabytes (Terabytes?) will those files be? Would seem to me that to be able to see everything in HD 360 degrees and from any or at least multiple viewpoints those files would be huge.

 

For the FUN show, probably only a few petabytes.

 

[RWB]

They use petabytes at the Florida Alligator Petting Zoo.

[TonerGuy]

My phone can already stream live video of whatever coin and I think I can film in HD and email it around off the same phone. Not to mention booring pictures. To me it seems the technology is not so far away but streamlining it so people feel like using it is.

 

Regular HD live stream is here and has been for awhile but it doenst give a person the same feeling of complete immersion that 360 3D does. You are still looking at a screen and only seeing what the camera sees. With 360 3D you actually feel you are there. You can turn you head and look at everything around you.

 

For a live event it might, for everything else it wont since those files will be downloaded and will sit on your computer as its played. Only your computer CPUs potential will be a factor.

And how many gigabytes (Terabytes?) will those files be? Would seem to me that to be able to see everything in HD 360 degrees and from any or at least multiple viewpoints those files would be huge.

 

That was actually my concern but it doesnt appear these files are going to be that large. As we sat in my office my friend downloaded a 360 3D boat tour of Amsterdam that was about 20 minutes long and it only required a few minutes to download.

 

Compared to apps or other movies it did seem like an eternity but overall it really wasnt that bad.

[brg5658]

My phone can already stream live video of whatever coin and I think I can film in HD and email it around off the same phone. Not to mention booring pictures. To me it seems the technology is not so far away but streamlining it so people feel like using it is.

 

Regular HD live stream is here and has been for awhile but it doenst give a person the same feeling of complete immersion that 360 3D does. You are still looking at a screen and only seeing what the camera sees. With 360 3D you actually feel you are there. You can turn you head and look at everything around you.

 

For a live event it might, for everything else it wont since those files will be downloaded and will sit on your computer as its played. Only your computer CPUs potential will be a factor.

And how many gigabytes (Terabytes?) will those files be? Would seem to me that to be able to see everything in HD 360 degrees and from any or at least multiple viewpoints those files would be huge.

 

That was actually my concern but it doesnt appear these files are going to be that large. As we sat in my office my friend downloaded a 360 3D boat tour of Amsterdam that was about 20 minutes long and it only required a few minutes to download.

 

Compared to apps or other movies it did seem like an eternity but overall it really wasnt that bad.

 

It might seem bad though when you're taking 10-15 hours to go through the entire FUN coin show floor...at a minimum if you think you're going to be able to see every coin up close.

 

When I think VR I think self-guided, not just putting on a head set and following what another person did. For it to work in a coin show setting you'd have to digitally map the entire show, cases/coins, etc...that would be a massive amount of data...

[TonerGuy]

It might seem bad though when you're taking 10-15 hours to go through the entire FUN coin show floor...at a minimum if you think you're going to be able to see every coin up close.

 

When I think VR I think self-guided, not just putting on a head set and following what another person did. For it to work in a coin show setting you'd have to digitally map the entire show, cases/coins, etc...that would be a massive amount of data...

 

It is but you have to remember all that video will be rendered and reduced to a much more reasonable size. Raw video is never used.

 

For example in the article I posted above about the Paul McCartney concert video - it states that to render 360 3D video it usually requires 15 minutes for each 1 minute of actual video. If you have never rendered raw video for final output that is amazingly slow and the editing computers will have to have massive CPUs and RAM to accomplish it.

 

But by the time its rendered it wont be so massive. And I doubt every coin would be available. Thats just impossible. CU already offers a smart phone app to allow an attendee to find certain coins at dealer tables at the Long Beach Show...

 

http://www.collectorscorner.com/marketnews/?name=CoinSearch

 

Obviously not every coin at the show is listed in the app but it is left to the dealers to choose which to input. Same could be done for VR 360 3D. A dealer could choose which coins he/she wants to offer in this environment.

 

Just a thought...

[MarkVIIIMarc]

I really don't think the data would be an issue is you just 3D view every coin there. What is the size of a 3d file on a coin? Now 3D viewing the floors and the isles and the display tables might be intimidating.