How Much Do the Wheel Marks Affect the Value of this 1970-D Roosevelt Variety?

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

On a percentage basis, how much would you say the wheel marks in the hair affect the value of this variety? I'd say the damage is "significant"...particularly since it's quite large and on the obverse.

 

 

This variety is tricky to value by itself. But, on a percentage basis, how much would you devalue the coin due to the mechanical damage?

 

50%?...75%?

[physics-fan3.14]

This is tricky.

 

How rare or valuable is this variety? If the damage were not there, what would it be worth? How easy is it to find this variety?

 

My first guess would be - if the variety is somewhat easy to find, the damage will nearly destroy the entire value. There aren't many people who collect Roosevelt dime varieties. If this is even remotely available, most collectors would wait for a problem-free example and ignore this one.

 

If this is a really scarce variety, you'll still get some interest in this coin, but at a reduced value (there is no way to really predict how much).

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

How rare or valuable is this variety?....How easy is it to find this variety?

Tricky to answer as well. It's not such a straight forward answer but...

 

For the 1970-D date, the variety is very common...but not common in Mint State. You can find these in pocket change. But mint state examples are much less common.

 

If the damage were not there, what would it be worth?

Hard to say because as you mention, it's not a very well collected series and an even much less collected variety. But if I were buying the coin:

 

*I'd pay $25 to $30 for a MS 62 to MS 63 example...

*$30 to $50 for a MS 64 to MS 65 example...

*and maybe $75 for a MS 66 example.

 

None that have been graded by PCGS or ANACS exist any higher than that.

 

http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/511016

[World Colonial]

I suspect (but actually do not know) that this variety is more or a lot more common than you believe or is apparent, even in mint state. While the prices you listed are not "low" for a US modern, I suspect most collectors of this series don't know it even exists and many may own it without even knowing it.

 

How long have you been looking for this one? If the answer is not long, I would wait for a better one.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

I suspect (but actually do not know) that this variety is more or a lot more common than you believe or is apparent, even in mint state.

It very well could be. As mentioned, this variety is very easy to find in pocket change...that is, on the 1970-D date at least...FS-901 on the 1969-P dime is very difficult to locate.

 

While the prices you listed are not "low" for a US modern, I suspect most collectors of this series don't know it even exists and many may own it without even knowing it.

There's no doubt that, you're right.

 

How long have you been looking for this one?

I've been studying this variety for about a year. In that time, I've opened and searched through five original bank rolls as well as searched for the variety on eBay at least twice a week. (It's actually very easy to identify when you know what you're looking for.) Here's an undesignated 1970-P FS-901 on eBay right now: http://www.ebay.com/itm/310664296126?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT (I had this on my watch list just because)

 

But in the time I've been looking for this variety, I've "made":

 

1 graded MS 65 by PCGS

1 previously graded MS 66 by PCGS but undesignated (this one is at PCGS now for variety attribution)

2 graded MS 65 by ANACS (one of these is consigned with Shane of kryptonitecomics: http://www.ebay.com/itm/381070515155?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT )

1 graded MS 64 by ANACS

1 graded MS 60 Details, Counter Wheel Damage by ANACS (the one in the OP...I have no clue how I missed the damage on the obverse before submitting it.)

 

And I've found:

 

about 8 uncirculated but with extremely poor strikes

about 5 AU examples

dozens of circulated examples

(these numbers are just estimates as I've sold off many of them)

 

So, in about a year of searching, I've found less than 20 mint state examples, with about half of which had good strikes.

 

[Coinbuf]

I suspect (but actually do not know) that this variety is more or a lot more common than you believe or is apparent, even in mint state. While the prices you listed are not "low" for a US modern, I suspect most collectors of this series don't know it even exists and many may own it without even knowing it.

 

How long have you been looking for this one? If the answer is not long, I would wait for a better one.

 

I have to agree with this, it's very likely that the mint state population is much higher than you see simply because people that have mint state dimes have not bothered to look or submit for this variety. If you want to fill a hole and can get it very cheap then this one may work for you, or you may prefer to wait as it would seem from your data that the pops are rising for MS examples.

 

 

Edited to add: What are the markers for this variety for those of us that are not involved with rossie varieties?

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

I suspect (but actually do not know) that this variety is more or a lot more common than you believe or is apparent, even in mint state. While the prices you listed are not "low" for a US modern, I suspect most collectors of this series don't know it even exists and many may own it without even knowing it.

 

How long have you been looking for this one? If the answer is not long, I would wait for a better one.

 

I have to agree with this, it's very likely that the mint state population is much higher than you see simply because people that have mint state dimes have not bothered to look or submit for this variety. If you want to fill a hole and can get it very cheap then this one may work for you, or you may prefer to wait as it would seem from your data that the pops are rising for MS examples.

 

 

Edited to add: What are the markers for this variety for those of us that are not involved with rossie varieties?

 

I wrote this up about a month ago: http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=8155765

 

Everything about the variety is in there.

 

But just to clarify, I'm not looking to buy this coin. I already own it. I'm just wondering how much this wheel damage (in general) would devalue it. Because if it only devalues it by a little, I'll try to sell it. But if it's a body bag situation, I'll just give it to one of my buddies as a reference example.

 

Edited to add: In that post, you can see how many circulated examples I've come across.

 

Also, I have since found an example of the 1969-P and gotten two more returned from ANACS, including the one in the OP.

[physics-fan3.14]

So what you are telling me is, there isn't much interest in this variety, and it is very common?

 

Yeah, that coin is not going to have much premium at all. Maybe a dollar, if that. That's what I'd say.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

So what you are telling me is, there isn't much interest in this variety, and it is very common?

Hahaha, basically...yes. It's just not very commonly found in mint state. I mean, I get that there are no doubt more mint state examples that haven't been certified. But like I mentioned in the previous post, if the wheel marks would significantly devalue it, I don't want to sell it on eBaby. Not just because if it's only worth a dollar, it wouldn't be worth shipping it anywhere. But I also don't want someone to break it out and try to resell it without mentioning the wheel marks. I'll just give it to one of my buddies as a reference coin and who I trust will not to break it out and try to deceive someone else.

[physics-fan3.14]

It's just not very commonly found in mint state.

 

You just said that, over the past year, you personally have found 14 mint state examples. I'd say that is incredibly common, even in mint state.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

It's just not very commonly found in mint state.

 

You just said that, over the past year, you personally have found 14 mint state examples. I'd say that is incredibly common, even in mint state.

Yeah but that was after going through five full rolls and checking for them on eBay at least twice a week. I figure that I've looked through at least 500 dimes to find those 14.

[physics-fan3.14]

It's just not very commonly found in mint state.

 

You just said that, over the past year, you personally have found 14 mint state examples. I'd say that is incredibly common, even in mint state.

Yeah but that was after going through five full rolls and checking for them on eBay at least twice a week. I figure that I've looked through at least 500 dimes to find those 14.

 

Extrapolating that percentage over the mintage of 750 million - there is the potential for 21 million of these to exist.

 

Don't want to rain on your parade, but if you can find 14 of them in one year (even if that was dedicated searching), then these are not rare.

[e1cnr]

Mr guesser, your coinfacts link is to the DDR FS-801

 

so is population low because the coin is not worth as much as cost of attribution, or are they actually rare?

 

 

The last time I sent coins to SB, they submitted/sold a 65 for me

http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotArchive.aspx?AuctionID=6010&Lot=20195

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

Mr guesser, your coinfacts link is to the DDR FS-801

 

so is population low because the coin is not worth as much as cost of attribution, or are they actually rare?

 

 

The last time I sent coins to SB, they submitted/sold a 65 for me

http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotArchive.aspx?AuctionID=6010&Lot=20195

 

You're right. That's my bad. It's here: http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/511016

 

I'll go back and fix it.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

It's just not very commonly found in mint state.

You just said that, over the past year, you personally have found 14 mint state examples. I'd say that is incredibly common, even in mint state.

Yeah but that was after going through five full rolls and checking for them on eBay at least twice a week. I figure that I've looked through at least 500 dimes to find those 14.

Extrapolating that percentage over the mintage of 750 million - there is the potential for 21 million of these to exist. Don't want to rain on your parade, but if you can find 14 of them in one year (even if that was dedicated searching), then these are not rare.

 

Oh, I don't think they are generally "rare" either...like I said, I've got dozens of circulated examples. But I would still argue that they are relatively uncommon to find still in mint state...that is relative to all other 1970-Ds that I've looked through in MS.

 

Of the 750 million mintage, how many survive in MS? I can't find any estimate.

 

Also...please do rain on my parade. I always want people to poke holes in my arguments. Every punch makes you stronger, know what I mean?

[physics-fan3.14]

Also...please do rain on my parade. I always want people to poke holes in my arguments. Every punch makes you stronger, know what I mean?

 

Haha, indeed. I'm glad you don't mind me playing devil's advocate. I really do appreciate your enthusiasm about this.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

Also...please do rain on my parade. I always want people to poke holes in my arguments. Every punch makes you stronger, know what I mean?

 

Haha, indeed. I'm glad you don't mind me playing devil's advocate. I really do appreciate your enthusiasm about this.

Not only don't mind...it's welcomed.

 

The variety is listed in Cherrypickers Fifth Edition Vol. 2. In there Fivaz-Stanton has their Universal Rarity Scale (URS), which would give us a very basic (VERY basic) estimate of survival rates. But I don't have this edition. I have the older Fourth Edition, which it's not in.

 

If anyone has the Fifth Edition on hand, I'd appreciate a look up of this. Thanks

[e1cnr]

The 5th edition does not have URS, I, or L just NEW LISTING, with all 3 described with one picture.

 

The questions no one will be able to answer is

 

 

- how many reverse dies were used

- how long where they used

 

 

which is very important for population

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

The 5th edition does not have URS, I, or L just NEW LISTING, with all 3 described with one picture.

 

The questions no one will be able to answer is

 

 

- how many reverse dies were used

- how long where they used

 

 

which is very important for population

 

Really? Did they get rid of all the URS all together. Or just not publish one for that variety?

[e1cnr]

All the new varieites in the 5th seem to have "NEW LISTING", while the carryovers from the 4th have the URS, Interest, and Liquidity estimates.

[World Colonial]

Oh, I don't think they are generally "rare" either...like I said, I've got dozens of circulated examples. But I would still argue that they are relatively uncommon to find still in mint state...that is relative to all other 1970-Ds that I've looked through in MS.

 

Of the 750 million mintage, how many survive in MS? I can't find any estimate.

 

Also...please do rain on my parade. I always want people to poke holes in my arguments. Every punch makes you stronger, know what I mean?

 

Going just by your personal experience which I acknowledge is not statistically representative, I would say that at minimum several thousand exist in some mint state grade and likely at least several hundred in a grade like MS-65. I don't believe there are ever going to be anywhere near this many collectors for them at any premium worth mentioning in my lifetime.

 

With a mintage of 750 million, its also likely dozens if not hundreds of die varieties exist. Unless collectors have a known interest in this particular one, I don't see that the chances are that good it will appreciate substantially. The prices you mentioned you are willing to pay I believe are really generous considering that most modern die varieties do not "stand out". And by "standing out", I don't think that any die variety which can only be identified with magnification contradicts this definition, whether it is a modern or a classic.

 

Die varieties on many large cents and capped bust halves (the ones in the Red Book) are easy to see even without magnification. Most others are not, to me anyway even when I was younger and my eyesight was somewhat better. (I cannot see the mintmark on an FDR dime at all without magnification now, much less one of these.)

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

Going just by your personal experience which I acknowledge is not statistically representative, I would say that at minimum several thousand exist in some mint state grade and likely at least several hundred in a grade like MS-65.

I've never tried to figure out how a survival rate for this variety. But based on the small bit of research that I did last night, you're probably right about several thousand at or above MS 60 and several hundred at or above MS 65.

 

I don't believe there are ever going to be anywhere near this many collectors for them at any premium worth mentioning in my lifetime.

I don't necessarily agree with this though. There's no doubt that the market for this variety (and for Roosevelts in general) is thin at best. However, I have seen MS examples of this variety sell for a decent premium time and time again. Although, this could very well be due to current unavailability of graded examples.

 

The prices you mentioned you are willing to pay I believe are really generous considering that most modern die varieties do not "stand out". And by "standing out", I don't think that any die variety which can only be identified with magnification contradicts this definition, whether it is a modern or a classic.

This variety does stand out though. You can see it with the naked eye. Check out the valleys in the flame:

 

One last thing that keep mentioning is on many of the MS examples that I've seen, there are significant strike issues on the reverse. This is what I mean:

Sorry for the poor quality iPhone photos

 

Based on my experience, I'd guess that about 1/3 to 1/2 of MS examples have this strike issue on the reverse.

[World Colonial]

Going just by your personal experience which I acknowledge is not statistically representative, I would say that at minimum several thousand exist in some mint state grade and likely at least several hundred in a grade like MS-65.

I've never tried to figure out how a survival rate for this variety. But based on the small bit of research that I did last night, you're probably right about several thousand at or above MS 60 and several hundred at or above MS 65.

 

I don't believe there are ever going to be anywhere near this many collectors for them at any premium worth mentioning in my lifetime.

I don't necessarily agree with this though. There's no doubt that the market for this variety (and for Roosevelts in general) is thin at best. However, I have seen MS examples of this variety sell for a decent premium time and time again. Although, this could very well be due to current unavailability of graded examples.

 

As you stated, given my survival estimates I believe that current prices are the result of the limited number of graded examples.

 

What I was trying to convey by these two points is that if there really are several hundred MS-65 specimens of this variety, I see no basis whatsoever to believe that anywhere near this number of collectors are ever going to pay even the prices you quoted, much less much higher ones, not in 2014 money. And in making this comment, I acknowledge that prices are set at the margin.

 

I covered this concept in detail in a prior thread. To my knowledge, there are two or maybe three series where die variety collecting is active: 1) large cents 2) capped bust halves 3) maybe half cents. Variety collecting of other early federal coinage (such as dollars) is noticeable but not large because of the limited supply and the cost. Large cents and capped bust halves probably have at least 200 "serious" variety collectors if not more. Half cents, I'm not sure.

 

But otherwise, I am not aware that it is of any consequence for any other series. The only other that I have really heard mentioned here with any frequency is VAMs for Morgan dollars but then it is my understanding that its still limited and most don't carry large premiums.

 

If this is true of most US series, I see no basis to believe that what is easily one of the least popular series in US coinage (the FDR dime) is going to have a large number (as in even a few hundred) of collectors buying a coin like this one at open market prices. I make this last comment to distinguish it from "cherry pickers" who I believe account for the overwhelming majority of this type of collecting. It is one thing to pursue this collecting at no premium or a nominal one to face value and entirely another at the prices you used.

 

Think of it another way. The Mercury dime must be 10 to 100 times as popular as the FDR, easily. There are varieties of the Mercury, right? I know a few are listed in the Red Book and I presume given the mintages there must be many others. If there is any variety collecting of this series, it has to be minimal. I don't recall Heritage ever pointing them out

 

Today, I suspect that there are more variety collectors of the FDR by some multiple. If this is correct, my answer for it is that it is disproportionately done because the only way to create a collecting challenge for this series is to pursue these specialties: die varieties, "special designation strikes" (FT or FB), "grade rarities" and toned coins. Otherwise, anyone can buy this series in "BU" on demand.