1964 Red Book

[mikew148]

I'm in a mode of Birth Year pick ups. I recently purchased a 1964 Red Book.

 

Sure would like to find a time machine, go back and pick up an 1893S Morgan in Unc. condition for less than $1500.

 

Makes me wonder what the prices will be like in another 50 years....

 

 

 

 

[Walkerfan]

It is simply mind boggling----Isn't it? Even the prices 10 years later in 1974 seem unreal.

 

I often wonder what the prices will be like in another 50 years, also. I see no reason why the trend won't continue.

 

To come out way ahead you must hold for decades----not years. But I do believe you will come out ahead.

[WoodenJefferson]

If things don't change for the better, in 50 years, the banned 'Red Book' will have a survival chapter in the back of the book.

[BillJones]

I see no reason why the trend won't continue.

 

Unfortunately I see lots of reasons. The younger generations don't seem to be interested in collecting "things" any more.

 

Then there is the long term economy. If we continue down the present path the economy will not grow enough to provide good paying jobs and economic opportunities that will support a leisure pursuit like collecting coins or going further and becoming a real numismatist.

 

Finally if the totalitarian forces gain control of much of the world, most people will be more concerned about their next meal than leisure pursuits and preserving a record of how political and economic history evolved.

 

The U.S. in particular and the world in general is suffering from a lack positive leadership that is going to be willing step up and preserve western civilization.

 

About the only thing that will keep the trend continuing is price inflation. A lot of the price increases that you see from the numbers in the 1964 Red Book were driven by higher prices in general. Back then if you earned $100 a week, that was okay. Today you are way below the poverty line with an income like that.

[World Colonial]

I see no reason why the trend won't continue.

 

Unfortunately I see lots of reasons.

 

I agree with you except that I do not see it as unfortunate at all. So many US coins are already unaffordable now, How can even less affordability be even better? The typical American is flat broke today.

 

Whether it will or won't will also depend upon which coins someone has in mind. For the one coin profiled in this thread, I certainly don't see a continuation of the last 50 years. I don't have the 1964 edition but do have the 1965 which lists the 1893-S Morgan dollar at $1775 in "UNC". I also checked the Heritage archives and the last MS-60 (don't remember if NGC or PCGS) sold for about $103,000 in 2012.

 

A 50+ fold increase far outruns the CPI, the incomes of the vast majority of collectors over this period and their increase in net worth. To make a mild understatement, to believe this is repeatable is hugely optimistic to say the least. This implies an inflation adjusted price (in 2014 money) of what, around $600,000+ in 2064? I don't think so.

 

The best argument that I can think to support that it will continue is the one I think you made indirectly. I don't think it will be due to inflation but as an "alternative asset" bought for "investment" due to rising gold and silver prices. I can see this type of coin being bought as a substitute for metals as it has been since the 1970's. But in making this statement, I don't expect general prosperity to equal that of the last 50 in the next 50. So I don't think the correlation will anywhere near as strongly as it has to this point.