Coin values updating?

[Ed J]

Has anyone notice that the price guide has been updated. What I mean some of my coins have no movement on the price forever but my 1992 1C MS 69 RED INCREASED 26.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[World Colonial]

Price guides don't represent what coins are worth unless coins are actually selling for those prices. The prices are mostly if not entirely just made up.

[KD]

Yeah, I noticed that too!

 

NGC just raised the prices last month on all of the higher grade Cameo and Ultra Cameo Proof Roosevelt Dimes from 1950 to 1964. And I think it was for one reason and one reason only. That reason is because PCGS had some of the higher grade coin prices set higher than NGC and NGC was losing money and losing business. Some of the prices were as much as 5 to 10 thousand dollars higher when it came to UC 68's and 69's. Where would you send your high grade Roosevelt dimes to be graded if the difference in pricing was that much higher? I KNOW WHERE I WOULD GET THEM GRADED. The higher priced grading service of course.

 

Well last month NGC corrected that problem and that was good and bad. Good If you already owned all the high grade Roosevelts you wanted, but bad if you did not because when retail prices go up across the board for a series everyone raises their prices. Which means you will have to pay more for those Cameo proofs.

 

But now at least NGC prices are more in line with PCGS.

I can see NGC doing this several more times in other under PCGS priced coins series.

 

Just an observation and one mans opinion but it the only reason that make sense to me.

[World Colonial]

You missed my point. It doesn't matter what NGC or PCGS include in their price guides because it doesn't set or drive actual prices at all.

 

I haven't checked either but looking in the Heritage archives, the PCGS specimens for the coins you listed seem to sell for about twice (or more) versus an NGC coin. It is a small sample because of the limited number of sales for each date but consistent with what I have seen and read for this type of coin otherwise. It is presumably due to the stricter standards PCGS applies to this series, at least perceived if not in actuality.

 

If either increase or decrease their prices, this in and of itself won't make the coins any cheaper or more expensive because neither are making a market as a buyer or seller. I don't believe that buyers or sellers use either to determine how much they pay.

 

In looking at Heritage sales, not sure whether the prices have increased or decreased in the last few years for these dimes. The sale prices are erratic and I presume this is due to the thin market for these grades.

[physics-fan3.14]

KD - I think you have confused the chicken for the egg.

[JackieOF]

The NGC Price Guide was due for an update.

 

The price guide might not be accurate but it's a great starting point.

[Raisethis2]

The price guide (whether here , ATS, Coin World, CDN or anywhere else) is just a ball park. Your results may vary............ actually, count on it.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

Us newbs look at price guides. We just don't know any better. I look at what other similar ones have sold for on ebay also.

[World Colonial]

Us newbs look at price guides. We just don't know any better. I look at what other similar ones have sold for on ebay also.

 

You should only consider actual prices as representative of actual value unless there is a specific reason to believe otherwise. For example common coins like an 1881-S Morgan dollar even in a grade like MS-65 or MS-66, there are thousands of these in the census, so maybe using a source like the Greysheet or these price guides might be valid.

 

For the examples used in this topic (thread), one sale is not necessarily representative of what the next coin even in the same grade and same holder will sell for. Sometimes yes and sometimes no. I would consider a prior sale for one of these coins relevant and a "ball park number" but many coins in ultra high grades have relatively thin markets and most (if not all) more expensive and actually scarce coins should not be treated as "widgets" with a fixed price. The quality and appearance of individual specimens does vary for two different coins in the same grade and same TPG which also means that they are worth different amounts at any given point in time.

 

You will only know what a coin is "worth" through experience. I don't collect any US coins at all but in the series I am active, I cannot tell you what most of the coins are worth at any particular point in time because they sell infrequently or very infrequently. In some instances, I have never seen the coin sell at all in any grade. If a coin like this comes up that I want to buy, I am forced to guess what it is "worth" and determine how much I am willing to pay.

[AHFreak]

Once you understand where the "values" come from and how they are created in the first place, you will understand that it really, truly doesn't matter. .. your coin is worth what someone is willing to pay you for it.

 

PCGS price guides being higher/different than NGC price guides has NOTHING to do with why NGC's prices moved, or will move or whatever. .. they work completely independent of each other.

[KD]

Sorry, I have to call you on that one. Maybe I am misunderstanding your point or you did not get mine so I will restate it in different terms.

 

If you had several high end raw coins that you new were at or near being top pop specimens and you were ready to submit them for grading, you have only a few TPG services to send them to. Where are you going to send them? What would drive that decision?

 

First choice would be the TPG that you tend to favor. Everyone has there favorite. But lets take that a step further and say you were truly undecided or had no preference. What would be the next logical step to take? You would look at the recent prices paid for the coins you have and which TPG commanded a higher price, right.

Then after you found very few current sales to go by you would go to the TPG price list (even though you knew that the list was fiction). And there you find a $5K or $10K difference in price for your coins. Which TPG wins your business?

 

Unless you are a fool you are going to send them in to the TPG that has the coins listed $5 to $10K higher. So even though the two may operate completely independent of each other I am saying that the reason NGC adjusted their prices was strictly a business decision. They saw low submissions on higher grade coins in a particular series, tried to understand why, looked at the competitions price list and had their answer. That is what I believe happened in the Roosevelt Dime series and I am sure you will see adjustments in other series in the near future. That is just the way business works.

 

So while the price lists may not reflect the actual value of a particular coin, they have a great deal to do with how many of those particular coins go through the grading rooms of that TPG.

[World Colonial]

Sorry, I have to call you on that one. Maybe I am misunderstanding your point or you did not get mine so I will restate it in different terms.

 

If you had several high end raw coins that you new were at or near being top pop specimens and you were ready to submit them for grading, you have only a few TPG services to send them to. Where are you going to send them? What would drive that decision?

 

First choice would be the TPG that you tend to favor. Everyone has there favorite. But lets take that a step further and say you were truly undecided or had no preference. What would be the next logical step to take? You would look at the recent prices paid for the coins you have and which TPG commanded a higher price, right.

Then after you found very few current sales to go by you would go to the TPG price list (even though you knew that the list was fiction). And there you find a $5K or $10K difference in price for your coins. Which TPG wins your business?

 

Unless you are a fool you are going to send them in to the TPG that has the coins listed $5 to $10K higher. So even though the two may operate completely independent of each other I am saying that the reason NGC adjusted their prices was strictly a business decision. They saw low submissions on higher grade coins in a particular series, tried to understand why, looked at the competitions price list and had their answer. That is what I believe happened in the Roosevelt Dime series and I am sure you will see adjustments in other series in the near future. That is just the way business works.

 

So while the price lists may not reflect the actual value of a particular coin, they have a great deal to do with how many of those particular coins go through the grading rooms of that TPG.

 

Even with your clarification, your explanation still doesn't make any sense. Never heard of anyone either here or on PCGS deciding which TPG to use because of their price guides. I can see a novice doing that because they don't understand how market prices are set but not anyone who is experienced. But even if they do, I don't believe it makes any difference to the volumes NGC or PCGS grade because the number of coins which fit the description of your examples are minimal.

 

To answer your original question of which TPG I would select, it would depend upon the series I collected. The values in the price guide would have nothing to do with it.

 

Going by the comments here and on PCGS, PCGS has a current market perception advantage today on average. However, it varies by series. Which service I would choose if financial considerations were the only or primary consideration would depend upon the quality of the particular coin I had, the markets perception of how each TPG applied its standards and how the combination of those two was likely to be reflected in the market price..

 

If I thought that it would receive the same grade from both and PCGS has the higher market value, I would choose PCGS. If I thought NGC would assign the higher grade but the coin would still sell for more than a PCGS coin one grade lower, I would choose NGC. I might also choose NGC if I thought the coin would receive the * (star) designation if that matters to the buyers who collect these coins. Or maybe PCGS for the + (plus) designation.

 

Your theory seems to be that NGC and PCGS use their price guides to drive submissions. I don't believe it but even if they do, never heard of any evidence anywhere which supports that it actually works because there is either limited or no concurrent evidence I have ever heard or seen that collectors behave the way you claim except maybe in isolation.

[MarkFeld]

Sorry, I have to call you on that one. Maybe I am misunderstanding your point or you did not get mine so I will restate it in different terms.

 

If you had several high end raw coins that you new were at or near being top pop specimens and you were ready to submit them for grading, you have only a few TPG services to send them to. Where are you going to send them? What would drive that decision?

 

First choice would be the TPG that you tend to favor. Everyone has there favorite. But lets take that a step further and say you were truly undecided or had no preference. What would be the next logical step to take? You would look at the recent prices paid for the coins you have and which TPG commanded a higher price, right.

Then after you found very few current sales to go by you would go to the TPG price list (even though you knew that the list was fiction). And there you find a $5K or $10K difference in price for your coins. Which TPG wins your business?

 

Unless you are a fool you are going to send them in to the TPG that has the coins listed $5 to $10K higher. So even though the two may operate completely independent of each other I am saying that the reason NGC adjusted their prices was strictly a business decision. They saw low submissions on higher grade coins in a particular series, tried to understand why, looked at the competitions price list and had their answer. That is what I believe happened in the Roosevelt Dime series and I am sure you will see adjustments in other series in the near future. That is just the way business works.

 

So while the price lists may not reflect the actual value of a particular coin, they have a great deal to do with how many of those particular coins go through the grading rooms of that TPG.

 

Decisions regarding which grading company to use are not typically based on price guide values. They are based on a combination of expected grading results and expected sale prices. And expectations of the latter are based on actual sales data/prices realized, not price guide prices.

[Walkerfan]

This is the second time that I've recently noticed upward NGC price shifts in my Walker series. My 20-D in 64 used to be valued at around 7000, then about a year or so ago, it went up to 7750 and has NOW just recently been raised to 9000!

 

I agree that ACTUAL prices realized and ALSO the QUALITY of the coin dictates what a coin is truly worth. To a lesser extent there is also the 'Kool-Aid Factor', which can and will, AT TIMES, make a difference to SOME buyers but NOT to me and many others who don't sip that potent drink.

 

I study these Walker price markets and follow them closely. I have seen 20-D 64s sell for as little as 5000 and as much as 15000, so I know that price guide number isn't too far off. People fail to realize the rarity of the 20-D, as well, and the value of the rare coin market, IN GENERAL, has been going up IMHO. I believe that we are going to see prices as we did back in the 2005 boom era or likely even HIGHER.

 

Being an economist; I KNOW that there are always cyclical peaks and troughs but in a HEALTHY market the next peak is always just a little higher than the previous one, so it is an UPWARD sloping curve. This is EXACTLY what I am noticing in the rare coin market.