I am curious as to just how badly inaccurate the census and other data are. by wdrob

[CSJournals-migration]

I recently broke out about 20 or so coins and medals from NGC as well as PCGS holders. All were graded without 'details' and were fine except for the fact that they were behind a piece of plastic, which I can not stand.

 

Out of all of those that were freed from the plastic vault, this is one example and how it further increases the inaccuracy of the census data.

 

 

 

I would imagine that if NGC and various other TPG companies would wish to have more accurate data on hand, they would come up with some other system that does not rely on the individual having to take the time to actually send in the label. I know I am not about to take the time and money (however miniscule it may be) to correct data that they themselves care so little about that they wish for paid members to do the work for them when identifying discrepancies.

 

 

 

Fact is, there will more than likely ever be data available that even comes close to the true representation of what exists and in what quantity. Maybe people like me are the actual problem. Maybe I am failing the community in neglecting to report breakouts and adjustments in population. If true, it is somewhat irrelevant since the data is so far past redemption that the only way to implement a more accurate system would be to start all over with a clean slate.

 

 

 

Breaking this medal out of the holder allowed me to get a better picture (in my opinion) that demonstrates the PL nature of this medal, and I was further able to play around a bit. Something I could not do in the scratched up holder.

 

See more journals by wdrob

[wdrob]

[RWB]

If you send them the labels, NGC and PCGS will adjust the grading reports. But that rarely happens, so today's reports include 25 years of cumulative error. Would you accept that from your bank or retirement plan?

[Afterword]

Please be advised of the following important notes.

 

The utilization of this report as a tool for assessing the population and value of certified numismatic coins in any character or grade is unreliable. The following characteristics inherent in the marketplace undermine the accuracy of this report:

 

1.Inexpensive coins which are not generally submitted for certification may appear scarce but are not.

2.Numismatic coin certification services are predominantly utilized for higher grade coins.

3.Certified coins are often removed from their holders without notice to the grading service. Therefore, computer tallies utilized to provide population reports may be misleading.

4.Rarity is only one factor which must be weighed in determining the market value of a numismatic coin.

 

Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America encourages all coin collectors to seek the counsel of qualified numismatists familiar with the certified coin marketplace before making any purchase based on this report.

 

 

 

 

 

[wdrob]

They could come up with a system where the labels of coins and medals that are broke out of the slab can be reported via online Internet interface or by phone.

 

Some may think this is impossible but if PCGS can create a new hologram that shows 1,2,3,or 4 dots depending on the angle the slab is tilted then they should include in all new slabs a extremely hard to see (at only one angle or possibly multiple codes at different angles) reject number so that it can be entered in only if you have the slab in your possession.

 

To take that one step further and to ensure that the coin is actually removed from the slab, they can place this code(s) on the inside in a manner that the only way to see the code is after the slab has been broken open.

 

Wipe the slate clean, start it all over. Dispose of all existing useless data that we pay for by being members.

 

 

[RWB]

PCGS tried paying for labels -- had not meaningful effects.

[coinsbygary]

The truth is that the population reports of both PCGS and NGC are inaccurate and will never be accurate. No matter what PCGS and NGC does to encourage people to turn in their labels, almost none will and this will never change. Thus the moral of the story is to take the population reports with a grain of salt.

 

On top of that resubmissions will continue to occur until the submitters get the grades they want. You can be sure none of those will be reported, although PCGS secure is a step in the right direction to ID coins.

 

Still, wipe the slate clean and start over and the next day it will be inaccurate. Already within the first couple days, sales of the gold Kennedy's didn't agree with the population reports.

 

Sorry, even though I could wish things were different, I'm a realist and I will treat the population reports accordingly as an aide rather than the gospel truth.

Gary

[Walkerfan]

The pops are VERY over-stated and INACCURATE for both services. I hardly even look at them anymore.

[jpcienkus]

Agree about the pop reports having a level of inaccuracy, but how do you solve the problem.

 

If people aren't willing to spend 10 minutes (MAX) to address an envelope, shove the labels inside and add a stamp, what process do you imagine would be easier? Write an e-mail? It would take about the same amount of time and there is no real proof. You could take pictures of the labels and attach it to the e-mail, but then again, now you've spent more time and energy than if you had just stuck them in an envelope and mailed them to the appropriate TPG.

 

How in the world is this the fault of the TPG's?

[wdrob]

How in the world is this the fault of the TPG's?

 

Wow Joe, you just jumped right down here to respond without reading what was already posted didn't you?.

 

I addressed both those issues in my previous posts. I did not place the blame on the TPG's however I did blame myself and people like myself that are not willing to send in the labels (although I did call once to see if there was a better way).

 

As to how it can be fixed. I proposed a possible solution that does in fact address verification of removing a coin from a slab where, as it exists now, you are right in that they can't take the word based on an email or a photo. But that idea of a number system that can not be seen by any means other than to remove the coin from the slab.

 

Sadly the reality is this would not work either as gherrmann44 pointed out:

 

On top of that resubmissions will continue to occur until the submitters get the grades they want. You can be sure none of those will be reported

 

He did mention the PCGS Secure as being a step in the right direction. Maybe he is right on that.

 

 

 

[vumc409]

ONE, feasible way but still fully prone to errors is just like NGC uses for coin verification. Create a scan on the mobile app or on the web site specifically for removed coins to have them go into a separate database.

 

Not positive of the way to rectify the numbers from there but maybe it is feasible?

 

Michael

[jpcienkus]

How in the world is this the fault of the TPG's?

 

Wow Joe, you just jumped right down here to respond without reading what was already posted didn't you?.

 

I addressed both those issues in my previous posts. I did not place the blame on the TPG's however I did blame myself and people like myself that are not willing to send in the labels (although I did call once to see if there was a better way).

 

As to how it can be fixed. I proposed a possible solution that does in fact address verification of removing a coin from a slab where, as it exists now, you are right in that they can't take the word based on an email or a photo. But that idea of a number system that can not be seen by any means other than to remove the coin from the slab.

 

Sadly the reality is this would not work either as gherrmann44 pointed out:

 

On top of that resubmissions will continue to occur until the submitters get the grades they want. You can be sure none of those will be reported

 

He did mention the PCGS Secure as being a step in the right direction. Maybe he is right on that.

 

 

 

Bill,

 

I did read the entire thread before posting. Maybe I didn't interpret the posts correctly while reading them. It sounded like the TPG's were being unfairly blamed for collectors behavior.

 

I apologize if my interpretation was not correct.

 

Joe

[wdrob]

I apologize if my interpretation was not correct.

 

Joe

 

No need. Been there.

 

 

[ddr70-migration]

There are the errors made by the various TPG'ers. Especially problematic--coins in variety holders. They get them wrong. I have a pointed leaves 1909 5C Canadian that is most certainly the much more common rounded leaves. Someday, I'll get around to having PCGS correct their error... On the NGC side, my 1869 1C S10 is Incorrectly designated by NGC as the more dramatic FS-008.5. Again, I haven't gotten round to correcting it. Mistakes happen. At $30 a coin (minimum) and three sets of eys, there are a lot of mistakes... not 6 sigma, but maybe a sigma or two :-(

[brg5658]

The census data are what they are. I have never liked the "wipe it clean and start over approach" because then you are guaranteeing that the data are wildly inaccurate by ignoring the 30 million coins that NGC has graded to date. PCGS has the same problem.

 

I use the census data only to know how many potential examples of a piece I am looking for may be out there and available at auction. There is some information that can also be gained about the general quality of the survivors that have been submitted from more scarce series, but I never take the numbers as gospel or as a definitive sign of availability.

 

It is a pet-peeve of mine when I see auctions for non-USA coins listing the coin as "finest known" or "top population" -- only to then look up the coin and see it is also the "worst known" and the "bottom population" as it is the only one graded. It is silly to make such exaggerated claims of uniqueness and quality for non-USA coins, as the great majority of examples of those coins are still raw in cabinets and collections around the world. The quality of a coin should speak for itself, without the need for gimmicks like populations, etc.

 

So, in summary, yes there is inaccuracy in the census data. BUT, if you "start over" the inaccuracy will be assuredly worse -- take the census numbers with a grain of salt, and don't let them distract you from the hobby.