heritage auction blowout

[wheat'swheats]

This is strictly curiosity. How many of you got blown completely out of the water in the last Heritage auction, and I am not talking about losing by just a few bucks, but totally shot down? For example on all the lincolns I bid on I lost by at least a $1000 or more. This is this was the first auction I came up a total goose egg, and was dumbfounded by the amounts I lost by. I bid $2500 on the 1953 ms67 red and it went for $14100 with b/p. Did many of you have the same experience?

[BillJones]

I bid on three items and got two of them. Admittedly I am not buying pieces with registry ramifications. I ended up with an 1853-C gold dollar in AU-55 and an 1846-O $5 gold in MS-61. I bid on a California $50 gold or "slug" but did not get it.

 

I think that high end registry material and pieces with CAC stickers are hot. The other stuff in not, but that's not to say that it won't get better in the future.

[EVillageProwler]

I don't think I'll ever understand how an 1953 Lincoln Cent that's not a 69+ can be worth 14k. Baffling...

[wheat'swheats]

I don't think I'll ever understand how an 1953 Lincoln Cent that's not a 69+ can be worth 14k. Baffling...

maybe I could see it if it were 70+ with a star and 2 CAC stickers

[FishyOne]

I had to look up that '53 wheatie and here it is. The reverse strike does not look the best but I'm sure the luster is producing it's own light source. Still......

 

$14,100 1953 Wheatie

[jpcienkus]

I won two items recently. 1 from the FUN Show auction (Morgan posted in NEWP thread) and 1 from the Eric P. Newman auction held in NY.

 

I paid some premium for the Morgan 66+ and about the same for the Australian gold sovereign. Others that I bid on were going for some strong money and was really targeting just about 4 coins, so I batted .500.

 

I agree with Bill about CAC stickered coins. Some of the prices are crazy.

 

Edited to add: I don't collect copper, so I didn't even look at the prices. I'm sorry you didn't get what you were hoping for.

[RWB]

"Stupid money, from stupid people, for pocket change." (With apologies to Sam Clemons)

[World Colonial]

The 1864 Bolivia Bolivianno NGC MS-63 sold for $1100 plus buyer's premium. Only one at that grade (now anyway) but I do not believe it is worth anywhere near that amount. Per my prior post, I think its an AU and given this grade, I did not bid but was willing to pay between $200 and $300 for it.

[MarkFeld]

This is strictly curiosity. How many of you got blown completely out of the water in the last Heritage auction, and I am not talking about losing by just a few bucks, but totally shot down? For example on all the lincolns I bid on I lost by at least a $1000 or more. This is this was the first auction I came up a total goose egg, and was dumbfounded by the amounts I lost by. I bid $2500 on the 1953 ms67 red and it went for $14100 with b/p. Did many of you have the same experience?

 

I'm not a fan of modern coinage, but I don't understand why you thought you had any chance for the 1953 cent with your $2500 bid. Or, for that matter, why the price realized caused you to be dumbfounded.

 

I believe only four have been graded 67RD by PCGS. And the last one sold for just shy of $11,000 in 2005, when generally speaking, prices were lower than they are today. Prior to that, one had sold for $8000+ in 2003. Upon what basis did you place your $2500 bid, thinking you might be competitive?

[BillJones]

To be perfectly frank about this, I don't understand the super high prices for these cents in the 1950s beyond the registry point concept. Do collectors really covet these things as COINS and not objects in slabs with MS-68, Red on them that yields oodles of registry points?

 

There are still rolls of these coins in existence, and who knows what is really in them? These coins have no rarity as date and mint mark combinations. There are millions of survivors. All the value is in the condition rarity and the slab grade with both factors getting equal billing. In other words, in some circles you could slab a clump of dirt and if the slab label said "MS-70, Red" someone would pay a big price for it. We saw that years ago with that 1963 cent that was in a PCGS PR-70 DCAM holder despite the fact that the coin had spots and had partially turned brown. In two FUN auctions, the lemmings bid it up to $40,000. Finally PCGS bought the coin in to save themselves the embarrassment from the fact that "The emperor had no clothes" in the eyes of those who knew something about grading.

 

Years ago I won a jelly jar of wheat cents from a contest that a local dealer was running. There were a lot of original red Wheat cents in it, and some them looked darn nice to me, even with the use of a 10X glass. How many others are out there? How much is one grading point worth that might be different if it were submitted on a different day? These are questions you should ask yourself before you pay thousands for something that other collectors think is only worth tens or hundreds, if that.

 

[Kurtdog]

"Stupid money, from stupid people, for pocket change." (With apologies to Sam Clemons)

Welcome to marketing grading.

[wheat'swheats]

To be perfectly frank about this, I don't understand the super high prices for these cents in the 1950s beyond the registry point concept. Do collectors really covet these things as COINS and not objects in slabs with MS-68, Red on them that yields oodles of registry points?

 

There are still rolls of these coins in existence, and who knows what is really in them? These coins have no rarity as date and mint mark combinations. There are millions of survivors. All the value is in the condition rarity and the slab grade with both factors getting equal billing. In other words, in some circles you could slab a clump of dirt and if the slab label said "MS-70, Red" someone would pay a big price for it. We saw that years ago with that 1963 cent that was in a PCGS PR-70 DCAM holder despite the fact that the coin had spots and had partially turned brown. In two FUN auctions, the lemmings bid it up to $40,000. Finally PCGS bought the coin in to save themselves the embarrassment from the fact that "The emperor had no clothes" in the eyes of those who knew something about grading.

 

Years ago I won a jelly jar of wheat cents from a contest that a local dealer was running. There were a lot of original red Wheat cents in it, and some them looked darn nice to me, even with the use of a 10X glass. How many others are out there? How much is one grading point worth that might be different if it were submitted on a different day? These are questions you should ask yourself before you pay thousands for something that other collectors think is only worth tens or hundreds, if that.

My point exactly. Mark I understand what you are saying, But I think that conditional rareity can only go so far when there are still rolls of these cents still out there. Also if you look at all the chatter on the shoulder I question the grade. And Yes I think that $2500 should have been competitive for this coin. Remember there were nuts in 2005 also.

[MarkFeld]

To be perfectly frank about this, I don't understand the super high prices for these cents in the 1950s beyond the registry point concept. Do collectors really covet these things as COINS and not objects in slabs with MS-68, Red on them that yields oodles of registry points?

 

There are still rolls of these coins in existence, and who knows what is really in them? These coins have no rarity as date and mint mark combinations. There are millions of survivors. All the value is in the condition rarity and the slab grade with both factors getting equal billing. In other words, in some circles you could slab a clump of dirt and if the slab label said "MS-70, Red" someone would pay a big price for it. We saw that years ago with that 1963 cent that was in a PCGS PR-70 DCAM holder despite the fact that the coin had spots and had partially turned brown. In two FUN auctions, the lemmings bid it up to $40,000. Finally PCGS bought the coin in to save themselves the embarrassment from the fact that "The emperor had no clothes" in the eyes of those who knew something about grading.

 

Years ago I won a jelly jar of wheat cents from a contest that a local dealer was running. There were a lot of original red Wheat cents in it, and some them looked darn nice to me, even with the use of a 10X glass. How many others are out there? How much is one grading point worth that might be different if it were submitted on a different day? These are questions you should ask yourself before you pay thousands for something that other collectors think is only worth tens or hundreds, if that.

My point exactly. Mark I understand what you are saying, But I think that conditional rareity can only go so far when there are still rolls of these cents still out there. Also if you look at all the chatter on the shoulder I question the grade. And Yes I think that $2500 should have been competitive for this coin. Remember there were nuts in 2005 also.

 

It was well known that there are still rolls out there, when, in weaker markets, the two previous examples brought muliples of what you bid this time. And the population didn't soar in the interim.

 

Bottom line, regardless of what you thought of the coin and/or the conditional rarity of the date, based on previous sales, you were unrealistic in thinking your bid would be competitive. And it doesn't take hindsight to see that.

 

Edited to add: Obviously, there is nothing wrong with bidding what you feel a coin is or should be worth. But in doing that, it doesn't mean that you will necessarily be competitive. And that shouldn't surprise you.

[RWB]

Just a humble opinion: There are very few true "conditional rarities" out there. An 1875 $5 in Unc would be one of them.

[MarkFeld]

Just a humble opinion: There are very few true "conditional rarities" out there. An 1875 $5 in Unc would be one of them.

 

Roger, how do you define "conditional rarity"?

 

I believe an 1875 $5 (in any grade) is an "absolute rarity", not a "conditional rarity".

[jom]

To be perfectly frank about this, I don't understand the super high prices for these cents in the 1950s beyond the registry point concept. Do collectors really covet these things as COINS and not objects in slabs with MS-68, Red on them that yields oodles of registry points?

 

I've only been collecting in this market for 22 years but in all that time this type of behavior has been the norm. People will pay big premiums for:

 

Color (yes, I participate in this myself)

Strike Designation

Small jump in grade

Cameo vs. none

Red over RB

 

etc.

 

Nowadays it seems that along with the above we have:

 

Stickers green and gold

Plus signs

PCGS vs. NGC...even when the NGC coin has a sticker!

 

People enjoy a lot of things about this market so I suppose it's something we have to live with....I don't understand much of it but there you have it...

 

jom

[Nutmeg Coin]

The thread title does not correlate very well with its intent; I could see "Heritage Auctions Strikeout" as more fitting. HA makes it like child's play to find out current market value on certified coins, you just have to enter the correct search terms and get most recent results.

 

I don't bid on retail auctions, and this was super high retail as the FUN signature auctions usually bring. It looks like virtually all the nice coins went strong and even Colonials with environmental damage. Some buyers are going to have serious cases of buyers regret if they got caught up in the irrational exuberance.

[BillJones]

The thread title does not correlate very well with its intent; I could see "Heritage Auctions Strikeout" as more fitting. HA makes it like child's play to find out current market value on certified coins, you just have to enter the correct search terms and get most recent results.

 

I don't bid on retail auctions, and this was super high retail as the FUN signature auctions usually bring. It looks like virtually all the nice coins went strong and even Colonials with environmental damage. Some buyers are going to have serious cases of buyers regret if they got caught up in the irrational exuberance.

 

One of the problems is that there were slim pickings on the bourse this year. I spent probably 20+ hours on the bourse and couldn't find anything that was on my "A" list. A lot of dealers were saying it was a very poor buying show for them. I was willing to pay retail and found darn little.

 

I ended up going on the "dark side" and shopped for some hammered English pieces and a couple of common but attractive Confederate notes.

 

So the auction was my main refuge for "A" items and even there the pickings were not great so far as I was concerned. I ended up with one decent item and other piece that I thought was outstanding for the grade. I paid less for than decent item than some of the quotes I'd been getting on the retail market.

 

[Nutmeg Coin]

It's getting harder and harder to find nice material that will grade at coin shows, so what you have in many cases are coins with major or minor problems, over-graded and overpriced coins looking for a home. If you take chances, you may be stuck with the problem coins or coins that don't grade at the levels you or others thought they would.

 

In the case of the FUN show the high end dealers did quite well if you you at the Legend report or other similar ones. There's an abundance of money around the world willing to buy US coins, but mainly the classic high end material, just like fine art collectors.

[BillJones]

In the case of the FUN show the high end dealers did quite well if you you at the Legend report or other similar ones. There's an abundance of money around the world willing to buy US coins, but mainly the classic high end material, just like fine art collectors.

 

The difficulty that I have with Legend is that what they market usually does not interest me. They are mostly into later 19th century material that is in high grade with a CAC sticker. I'm currently into Charlotte and Dahlonega mint coins with original skins that don't have a Mint State grade on them. I have nothing against Mint State coins, and would consider buying them, but cleaned AU coins with Mint State labels on them with prices to match the assigned grade are not my thing.

 

There was a lot more for me to consider at the 2013 FUN show than the 2014 outing. Last year I saw some coins I sort of liked, but the prices ranged from high to outrageous. An 1855-D gold dollar is rare item, but I think you need to be a bit desperate to pay over $30,000 for one in EF-AU with a very distracting planchet defect. That was what was around last year. This year there was a cleaned one in the auction that went for a good less.

 

Finding any of this material is very hit and miss, and I'm looking mostly for gold dollars which are off the beaten path for many people because of their small size. I can understand where an decent looking 1838-C half eagle would be difficult. But even if you are willing to pay the money there is nothing to had PERIOD.

 

So I figure I'm headed for the dark side more and more. U.S. coins are becoming impossible to find even if you have the funds to buy them.

[World Colonial]

So I figure I'm headed for the dark side more and more. U.S. coins are becoming impossible to find even if you have the funds to buy them.

 

I saw in a recent post that you bought some English hammered coinage. I do not know the generic availability of English coinage, only selectively. But depending upon what you want to buy, I think you are likely to find scarce world coins even less available.

[World Colonial]

In the case of the FUN show the high end dealers did quite well if you you at the Legend report or other similar ones. There's an abundance of money around the world willing to buy US coins, but mainly the classic high end material, just like fine art collectors.

 

I do not believe there is any critical mass of non-US collectors looking to buy US coins at current prices at all and certainly not the more expensive ones, I do not believe anyone can demonsstrate that at all; only in isolation.

 

The obvious reason for it is that comporable numismatic material from the US sells from 10 to maybe almost 100 times the price. Given the lopsided preference of most buyers for their own coinage, how many actually want to pay such exorbitant prices when they can buy their own coins for so much less? It's only a small number of "investors" who will do so and then partly also because of the lack of liquidity in their home market.

[Lablover]

Roger, how do you define "conditional rarity"?

 

 

Mark,

 

Where/what is the best source to explain this, and other types of similar terms?

 

Have you ever considered an on-line course for grading, etc. We common collectors sure could use an experenced person like yourself for training.

 

Cheers...Jim

[BillJones]

Roger, how do you define "conditional rarity"?

 

 

Mark,

 

Where/what is the best source to explain this, and other types of similar terms?

 

Have you ever considered an on-line course for grading, etc. We common collectors sure could use an experenced person like yourself for training.

 

Cheers...Jim

 

"Condition rarity" usually refers to a date and mint mark combination of a coin that is relatively common in the lower grades, but of extreme rarity in the highest grades. In the last decade prices for such pieces have increased to the point where they are many multiples of the prices for the lower grade coins.

 

The trouble with an on-line grading course is that you are limited by what you can learn from photographs. You can learn quite a bit about how to grade circulated coins from photographs, and I would suggest that you purchase a recent copy of the books like the ANA grading guide to that. Many years ago I learned a great deal from the book "Photograde" which was a pioneering work on the subject.

 

The trouble starts when you try to learn to grade Mint State and Proof coins from photographs. You can learn something about the lowest Mint State grades, but once you get into the issues of luster and subtleties of differences in strike quality, you can only go so far with pictures. That is why experts warn you that grades offered here in the "Hey Buddy Can You Spare a Grade?" section can only be estimates.

 

I would say that you best course of action would be to take on the grading courses that are offered by the ANA or attend one of the half day seminars that have been given at shows and conventions from time to time. After, you need to look at as many coins as possible, and keep looking.

 

Coin grading is an on-going learning process, even for the experts. I've found that when I've been to a show were there were a lot of over graded coins, I sometimes need to go back to my own collection to get grounded again. The problem with "grade-flation" which is the debasement of grading standards is an on-going battle.

 

[MarkFeld]

Roger, how do you define "conditional rarity"?

 

 

Mark,

 

Where/what is the best source to explain this, and other types of similar terms?

 

Have you ever considered an on-line course for grading, etc. We common collectors sure could use an experenced person like yourself for training.

 

Cheers...Jim

 

"Condition rarity" usually refers to a date and mint mark combination of a coin that is relatively common in the lower grades, but of extreme rarity in the highest grades. In the last decade prices for such pieces have increased to the point where they are many multiples of the prices for the lower grade coins.

 

The trouble with an on-line grading course is that you are limited by what you can learn from photographs. You can learn quite a bit about how to grade circulated coins from photographs, and I would suggest that you purchase a recent copy of the books like the ANA grading guide to that. Many years ago I learned a great deal from the book "Photograde" which was a pioneering work on the subject.

 

The trouble starts when you try to learn to grade Mint State and Proof coins from photographs. You can learn something about the lowest Mint State grades, but once you get into the issues of luster and subtleties of differences in strike quality, you can only go so far with pictures. That is why experts warn you that grades offered here in the "Hey Buddy Can You Spare a Grade?" section can only be estimates.

 

I would say that you best course of action would be to take on the grading courses that are offered by the ANA or attend one of the have day seminars that have been given at shows and conventions from time to time. After, you need to look at as many coins as possible, and keep looking.

 

Coin grading is an on-going learning process, even for the experts. I've found that when I've been to a show were there were a lot of over graded coins, I sometimes need to go back to my own collection to get grounded again. The problem with "grade-flation" which is the debasement of grading standards is an on-going battle.

 

(thumbs u

[wheat'swheats]

This is exactly what I am talking about. In the up coming Heritage sale I wanted a Lincoln in 66 red CAC which was estimated at $280. Knowing that things are going a little high I bid $525 thinking surely I am in the running. I have been outbid already, and this is a very common Lincoln just in high grade.. Is it just registry collectors have deep pockets, CAC is demanding that much of a price increase or all the above? Yes I know that back in 2005 some coins brought high prices ( above what you would think they would bring), but like I said there were nuts in 2005 also, who had more money than brains. I do not want to pay so much for a coin, that if the registry craze ends, I'll have to chocolate coat all my coins to make them taste better when I have to eat them.

[MarkFeld]

This is exactly what I am talking about. In the up coming Heritage sale I wanted a Lincoln in 66 red CAC which was estimated at $280. Knowing that things are going a little high I bid $525 thinking surely I am in the running. I have been outbid already, and this is a very common Lincoln just in high grade.. Is it just registry collectors have deep pockets, CAC is demanding that much of a price increase or all the above? Yes I know that back in 2005 some coins brought high prices ( above what you would think they would bring), but like I said there were nuts in 2005 also, who had more money than brains. I do not want to pay so much for a coin, that if the registry craze ends, I'll have to chocolate coat all my coins to make them taste better when I have to eat them.

 

You said the coin "was estimated at $280" - who provided the estimate?

[BillJones]

Not to demean what you collect and the coins that you admire, but I view these very high bids, relative to the real value of the items as a reflection of the lower end registry market. Some people what to play the registry game for whatever reasons, which I think are mostly based on ego, but they don't have the big bucks for the classic coins. Or perhaps they are like me, and don't have the money to run with the biggest dogs who have millions to spend. So they push the dickens out of the modern market with these condition rarities.

 

It is not a game I want to play because I enjoy coins from the historical point of view. I mess with the registry, but it does not dictate what I buy. If it did, I won't be buying Charlotte and Dahlonega gold coins and classic American political collectables. I'd be upgrading my registry set with old Proof gold and higher grade (MS-65 and better) Mint State gold type coins.

 

If I REALLY wanted to play the registry game I'd be buying MS-67 modern type coins where you really get a bang for you buck in registry points. From the registy point perspective you are better off buying that material than classic coins, like 1796 Quarter or a Chain Cent in VF.

[BillJones]

You said the coin "was estimated at $280" - who provided the estimate?

 

He might be looking at the price guide information and previous auction realized numbers that Heritage provides with each auction lot. That sort of thing makes the Heritage site much more informative than the Stacks' site, which I still find hard to use, and not that helpful despite the new software.

[wheat'swheats]

This is exactly what I am talking about. In the up coming Heritage sale I wanted a Lincoln in 66 red CAC which was estimated at $280. Knowing that things are going a little high I bid $525 thinking surely I am in the running. I have been outbid already, and this is a very common Lincoln just in high grade.. Is it just registry collectors have deep pockets, CAC is demanding that much of a price increase or all the above? Yes I know that back in 2005 some coins brought high prices ( above what you would think they would bring), but like I said there were nuts in 2005 also, who had more money than brains. I do not want to pay so much for a coin, that if the registry craze ends, I'll have to chocolate coat all my coins to make them taste better when I have to eat them.

 

You said the coin "was estimated at $280" - who provided the estimate?

Heritage