Are Sellers Being Realistic In Pricing ?

[GoldFinger1969]

The Grey Sheet has a digital option, but I don't know if you also get access to any digital archives. Grey Sheet Website

 

Looks like they have plenty of back copies in the archives, but I don't think they have taken all the data in those page grids and put them into an easy-to-read chart, which would be MOST useful.

 

It's the difference between looking at a table of daily stock prices going back years vs. a chart. The latter is light-years much easier and you gain much more info. in a much shorter time period.

 

I'll contact some of the online sources and see if this is something they have or are considering.

 

The auction sites themselves have good records, I would think they would want this information, if not for free or for a fee, then at least for internal usage.

[DaveG]

The Grey Sheet website also lists chart books for sale, but I'm not sure the ones for gold coins show the numismatic premium for the coins in question.

 

At one point I was keeping track of the numismatic premium manually on an Excel chart, but I lost interest many years ago.

 

I'm not sure the numismatic community focuses on numismatic premium enough to keep track of it. On the whole, from what I've seen, there isn't much interest in technical analysis on the part of the numismatic community - unless individuals are doing it and not telling anyone.

[GoldFinger1969]

The Grey Sheet website also lists chart books for sale, but I'm not sure the ones for gold coins show the numismatic premium for the coins in question.

 

Thanks Dave....

 

At one point I was keeping track of the numismatic premium manually on an Excel chart, but I lost interest many years ago.

 

The reason that is important for some/most gold coins is to get a gauge of what premiums are sustainable with a rising OR falling gold price. I think earlier in this thread I mentioned that the St. Gaudens MS65 had fallen by 50% in price when gold tripled. That's a helluva shortfall to anybody who was told that gold coins/Saints would have leverage to a rising gold price (thankfully, I bought bullion back then -- one of my better calls ).

 

I'm not sure the numismatic community focuses on numismatic premium enough to keep track of it. On the whole, from what I've seen, there isn't much interest in technical analysis on the part of the numismatic community - unless individuals are doing it and not telling anyone.

 

Not so much technical analysis, Dave, as fundamental analysis. I think tracking the absolute price of the most popular/liquid gold coins provides very useful information not only for that set but for other similar coins. And if you know the prices at various dates for various Mint States (or even for just 1 or 2 Mint States, including MS 65) then you have a good price history that you can compare to gold bullion over time.

 

I think if I were a buyer of Saints I would want to know what forces made an MS 65 common year trade at $3,000+ in 2000 (when gold was out of favor, ~ $300/oz.) and then trade at almost half that level 8 years later when gold was approaching $800/oz. So gold nearly triples and the coin drops by almost half ?

 

That's super-important to know from a pricing perspective, IMO.

 

And I realize lots of other factors affect that premium: willingness of older collectors to buy, new entrants into coin collecting, new supply of coins found, sellers of existing coins (need $$$, estate sales, etc.), prices for other grades dragging up prices (i.e., some MS 67's or 68's going for huge premiums to price-inelastic buyers).

 

But it's important to gauge where a 'floor' might be with regards to the absolute price and the premium.

 

Right now, I think the premiums are a bit on the low side, but they can go lower. But I would definitely not call them rich based on the pricing history I have seen going back to 2009 let alone the early-2000's.

 

 

[DaveG]

The main reason I stopped tracking the numismatic premium of US gold coins was that I decided that the numismatic premium was entirely supply-and-demand driven and that, while the premium was frequently a percentage of the bullion price, that wasn't always true.

 

(That is, in a "normal" environment, one would generally expect the numismatic premium to increase as a percentage of the bullion value when the bullion value was falling and decrease as a percentage of the bullion value when the bullion value was rising.)

 

With the numismatic premium being supply-demand driven, one needed to annotate one's chart with sufficient qualitative information to make sense of the supply-demand situation at any particular point in time. And, I decided that knowing the numismatic premium was entirely backwards-looking and no aid to predicting future numismatic premium, or even knowing if today's premium was wide or narrow.

 

As a result, the chart became so unwieldy that I abandoned it.

 

As an example, if I recall correctly, much of the reason for the increase in numismatic premium (for both gold and silver) in 1999 was "Y2K Fever", which abated almost immediately in January 2000. Since Y2K Fever was all over the media at the time (along with increased demand for bullion), it didn't take a genius to know to be a seller, not a buyer, in 1999.

 

(By the way, I describe this as "technical analysis" in the classic Wall Street sense, as it's an effort to use past price behavior to predict future price behavior. As opposed to "fundamental analysis" in the classic Wall Street sense, which focuses on the sales and earnings of any one company or a group of companies.)

[GoldFinger1969]

The main reason I stopped tracking the numismatic premium of US gold coins was that I decided that the numismatic premium was entirely supply-and-demand driven and that, while the premium was frequently a percentage of the bullion price, that wasn't always true.

 

Agreed...but I still think -- and this is strange because I am NOT a technician in my stock selecting -- that there is valuable information in the price itself at any given time.

 

If gold is $300/oz. and MS 65 Saint commons are $3,000 that tells me there is bigtime demand (could be from Internet/Tech gazillionaires, could be from Y2K, could be from folks convinced if gold goes to $600 that the Saints will go to $6,000, dunno.....). So that info. is useful.

 

That is, in a "normal" environment, one would generally expect the numismatic premium to increase as a percentage of the bullion value when the bullion value was falling and decrease as a percentage of the bullion value when the bullion value was rising.

 

Seems logical...but I bet there are some times when that wasn't true, like maybe the late-1970's ? If the numismatic premium is 'sticky' on the downside because collectors/dealers are loath to collapse pricing, but if it eventually DOES collapse as has happened the last few years, then you COULD see the premium EXPAND during the next rise in bullion prices.

 

The key is: did the absolute price and the premium fall quickly enough OR did enough time go by such that sellers threw in the towel ? I would not expect premiums to collapse during gold's 6-month 2008-09 sell-off because it was so rapid. Nor the 1980 collapse to $400/oz. after hitting $850/oz, which happened in a matter of weeks/months.

 

But I believe premiums weakened in the late-1980's and then when gold did nothing throughout the 1990's they collapsed. Time is the key factor....prices are always sticky on the downside. From starting point "A", I believe prices will be closer to an ultimate bottom and will have fallen much further if gold falls 30% and it has been 5 years since the fall and we are dragging along at the same gold price vs. a 50% price fall that has taken place in 4 months.

 

I agree with your basic thrust, Dave.....that there are so many variables to track on the price and the premium that it wasn't worth it. From my POV, however, just knowing the prices for a constant MS-rated coin is useful as it gives you an idea of whether the market is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued.

 

Right now, based on the pricing patterns I have seen, given today's gold price, I would say they are a bit on the UNDERVALUED side, but certainly not dirt-cheap. If someone wanted to say it was in the fairly-valued camp, no disagreement. I would strongly argue against overvalued.

 

That's where I think a chart/timeline could provide good color.

[e1cnr]

NGC used to have values tracked by time in chart form - I am not sure if they still do, as I find that info of little value to me. PCGS also tracks stuff with their PCGS3000 index - PCGS price index

 

I also love black and white - pictures, television, drawings, paintings - why would you want color? original is best.

 

Surely unreactive metals such as silver or gold/copper will stay exactly the same for millions of years unless contaminated with pollution....

[GoldFinger1969]

NGC used to have values tracked by time in chart form - I am not sure if they still do, as I find that info of little value to me. PCGS also tracks stuff with their PCGS3000 index - PCGS price index

 

I see some NGC price charts, but the prices seem wrong -- too high -- based on this graph:

 

http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/us-coin-price-history.aspx?c=19177&g=65

 

The trend seems correct, but I think the current retail price for an MS 65 1924 common is $1,800 - $1,900. Grey bid price () might be lower.

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

FWIW....I see most if not virtually all of the Saint Gaudens coins on Ebay not getting bids. Prices are apparently too high and sometimes I don't see pictures of the reverse side of the coin.

 

I've made some low-ball 'stink bids' on some coins and gotten counters of $50 or $100 less which tells me that the sellers want pretty much what they are asking for.

 

Conversely, when I bought my $50 SS Central America restrike after the 2008-09 financial crisis, I got the seller down about 15% in price because he really did want to sell and I really did want to buy.

[GoldFinger1969]

Look at what comes up when I punch up on Ebay.... "1927 Saint MS-65"....I know there are hidden fees on Ebay but can someone be over $1,000 higher than the bulk of the offers for a coin that is largely interchangeable ? Even if they are not looking to sell today, they can't think that they can get that price anytime soon. And if they are selling these coins and know the market, why be 40% or more off the market ?

 

Has anybody ever talked to some of these high-offer folks who are off by more than 30% ? I know they may think they might get lucky but it's one thing to price a few hundred high and another to be well over $1,000 high.

 

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_from=R40&_nkw=1927+saint+ms-65&_sop=16

 

I was thinking of putting in a couple of 'stink bids' that are at or just below the market and seeing if they come down at all.

 

Some of these are nice coins, but even then they are high by at least $500, IMO.

[e1cnr]

The eBay auction prices have been in the $1900 to $2150 range, depending on how nice they look. BIN prices are for people that just have to have it now, and sellers have the items higher because they realize it will be in inventory longer.

[CaptHenway]

100

[GoldFinger1969]

100

 

??

[GoldFinger1969]

The eBay auction prices have been in the $1900 to $2150 range, depending on how nice they look. BIN prices are for people that just have to have it now, and sellers have the items higher because they realize it will be in inventory longer.

 

Yeah, that's the market -- can someone tell me what the Grey Sheet says, I think a friend told me that the rise in gold pushed up Saints/others in the last week or so -- so even if you want to be a bit high at $2,500 or so hoping to get lucky.....how can someone be at $2,800, let alone $3,500, and hope to get any nibbles ?

 

I may ask some of these folks. I'm just curious, as this isn't just 1 or 2 nitwits way off the market.

[GoldFinger1969]

Overpriced MS-65 1927 Saints: Here are some of the responses from some folks I was in contact with regarding what I thought were high Ebay prices. None of these have any bids, at most, declined offers. 1 coin did sell away from Ebay -- probably for less $$$ since they didn't have to pay fees and stuff.

 

I'll list the approximate price being asked for the coin along with the comments they sent me. Some were very detailed and informative; others basically said pay-the-price-or-get-lost :

 

$3,100: The fact it is CAC and a + is why... also there is eBay fees and PayPal fees for more money. This coin makes a huge jump in MS66. That is about all I can say. We only marked this coin up $100 wholesale. It is what it is.

 

$2,500: We're not selling by Grey Sheet. PCGS online catalog gives it $2400.

 

$2,900: no offers sorry

 

$2,300: We have common dates MS65 Saints without the great mint luster for less.

 

$2,400: Thank you for your interest in our listings. We do have our 1924 MS65 priced at 2150 both on ebay and our website. We have priced this item taking the '+' into consideration among other factors.

 

$3,500:THANKS FOR CONTACTING ME. HERE'S THE PROBLEM: BETWEEN EBAY FEES, PAYPAL, AND USPS REGISTERED MAIL, I AM STUCK. I'M INTO THIS COIN WHEN GOLD WAS VERY HIGH. I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO SAY EXCEPT THANKS FOR LOOKING?

 

$2,300: Thank you for your message. I relisted item. - NOTE: THIS GUY RELISTED THE ITEM AND CUT THE PRICE $400 !! (thumbs u (thumbs u

 

So....basically if you ask enough and someone really wants to move the merchandise, they will negotiate and/or cut the price. The guy above cut it 15% ($400) after I told him the Grey Sheet was about $1,900 (it better be -- that's what I was told. ).

[jpcienkus]

GoldFinger,

 

Great post. Fun to see the reactions you got from your questions. There are many on this site who will not pay extra for the "+" or "*" grade, yet many in the market still want to get extra for it. I've paid more for both those designations because I really wanted the coin. Anyway, my thoughts on some of the repsonse.

 

Last response: cool that he reduced the price by $400. I'll bet he expected you to buy it.

 

$3500 coin with reply in ALL CAPS: he was totally honest. He's buried in the coin and wants to get out. I'm wondering why he doesn't wait for a while and see if the price of gold rises, possibly getting a better price.

 

$2500: Basically, we only buy at the grey sheet and sell above retail. Get lost.

 

$3100: $100 over wholesale? Is he serious or just a bad buyer?

 

$2300: We have crappier coins with the same grade for less! IMO, I'll pay about retail if I think the coin is an "A", not above retail nor will I pay retail for a C coin.

 

$2400: Polite answer, but asking price is still high.

[GoldFinger1969]

GoldFinger,Great post. Fun to see the reactions you got from your questions.

Thanks....I try for original Threads and Posts rather than trying to do duplicates of others here. I can't compete with the experts on this site but thought this would be of interest to readers here.

 

 

There are many on this site who will not pay extra for the "+" or "*" grade, yet many in the market still want to get extra for it. I've paid more for both those designations because I really wanted the coin.

To me, the CAC or PQ are just a confirmation of the original grade. It'd be like having BOTH PCGS and NGC grade your coin. And with the admitted change in grading standards over the decades, it's an added plus-factor for coins graded in the last 15 years.

 

Last response: cool that he reduced the price by $400. I'll bet he expected you to buy it.

I would have if I hadn't already bought one. I contacted him and will look to buy from him in the future. Honest seller.

 

$3500 coin with reply in ALL CAPS: he was totally honest. He's buried in the coin and wants to get out. I'm wondering why he doesn't wait for a while and see if the price of gold rises, possibly getting a better price.

Yeah, I see his point...but he's not gonna get anywhere NEAR $3,500...not even $3,000....hell, I doubt he could find someone for $2,500....so while I see how he is 'stuck' I just think he is going to have to wait until gold moves to $2,200/oz. or the price of Saints moves to the low-$3,000 range. I guess it doesn't cost him anything to keep it listed but it could be there for YEARS.

 

$2500: Basically, we only buy at the grey sheet and sell above retail. Get lost.

I have never seen a Grey Sheet, what's the Bid/Ask spread normally on a Saint in the $1,900 range ?

 

$3100: $100 over wholesale? Is he serious or just a bad buyer?

I don't know what he meant by 'wholesale' -- is that the ASK price on the Grey Sheet ? Maybe he's pricing it as if it's an MS-66, but I still don't know how you can say that wholesale or retail on an MS65 vs. MS66 jumps by almost $1,000 on this coin ASSUMING you value the CAC Green Sticker as a guarantee that it would move to MS66 (I wouldn't).

 

Personally, if I wanted it, I would pay a few hundred for a CAC on an MS65 1927 Saint but seems this guy is asking $1,000 or more. Maybe some of the more knowledgeable folks can discuss the jump from MS-65 to MS-66, the CAC Sticker, and wholesale/retail (or Bid/Ask as I call it).

 

$2300: We have crappier coins with the same grade for less! IMO, I'll pay about retail if I think the coin is an "A", not above retail nor will I pay retail for a C coin.

Well, at least they were honest...telling me they had cheaper coins. But I presume those are MS61-63 coins.

 

$2400: Polite answer, but asking price is still high.

Yup.....coins like this WILL SELL if gold moves up $200/oz...but then you wonder if they will re-up the price in a never-ending vicious cycle and never sell the coin unless they find The 1 Dumb Buyer.

[CSdot]

Great survey GF! I especially liked the ones who admit that they are looking for suckers who are willing to pay full freight. For example:

 

$2,300: We have common dates MS65 Saints without the great mint luster for less.

 

and

 

$2,500: We're not selling by Grey Sheet. PCGS online catalog gives it $2400.

 

This second guy sounds like a real tool. No one honestly believes that the TPG prices are realistic.

 

The guy who dropped his price by $400 seemed legit.

 

I once had someone increase his price by $200 because I asked a question. I guess my question led him to believe I really wanted the coin (I wanted him to take my request for additional pictures seriously), and he thought he could squeeze an extra $200 out of me. That was a big turn off, and killed my desire to buy that coin.

[e1cnr]

Keep up the good work GoldFinger1969, the eBay overpriced police force always needs volunteers to help fight the fight.

[GoldFinger1969]

Keep up the good work GoldFinger1969, the eBay overpriced police force always needs volunteers to help fight the fight.

 

Actually, E1, I think the lack of buyers/bidders at the prices shows that buyers are doing the fighting. And while I feel more for that individual seller who needs $3,000+ to 'break even' rather than the business guys trying to make more $$$. The fact is I just don't see anybody who is spending that kind money overpaying by that percentage.

 

It's one thing to pay $80 for a $60 silver coin if you really want it. It's only $20 even though you over pay by over 30%. That's why people will overpay for items that can double as presents (especially around Christmas) -- they need them in a set time frame.

 

But nobody will overpay by 30% on a coin costing $2,000 when it means an extra $600. At least not anybody who doesn't have millions of shares of a social media stock.

[GoldFinger1969]

Great survey GF! I especially liked the ones who admit that they are looking for suckers who are willing to pay full freight. For example:

 

$2,300: We have common dates MS65 Saints without the great mint luster for less.

 

and

 

$2,500: We're not selling by Grey Sheet. PCGS online catalog gives it $2400.

 

Should be added in the description: Paypal, Visa, Mastercard all accepted....Suckers Welcome.

 

This second guy sounds like a real tool. No one honestly believes that the TPG prices are realistic.

 

They are sometimes in the ballpark, but in the Bob Uecker seats. I'd guestimate about 15-20% too high on average. They may not be real-time, could be lagged from when gold/coins were higher.

 

The guy who dropped his price by $400 seemed legit.

 

That's a very fair price, comparable to my local dealers prices. Hope he sells it.

 

I once had someone increase his price by $200 because I asked a question. I guess my question led him to believe I really wanted the coin (I wanted him to take my request for additional pictures seriously), and he thought he could squeeze an extra $200 out of me. That was a big turn off, and killed my desire to buy that coin.

 

Did it eventually sell ? I wonder.....

 

Yeah, that's happened to me. Guy raised his price...I didn't bid....nobody else did...then he e-mails me that I can have it at the original price or a price between the original and revised price, I forget which.

 

I told him to take a hike.

[Matt_dac]

I recently sold a few coins and a 60's Mickey Mantle baseball card collection to fund a deal on Saint's I could not pass up. I decided I hate selling - ha ha - it's much more fun to buy!

 

As a collector the only thing that matters to me is real supply and real demand based on what I can find for recent sold prices, asking prices, and available inventory. The mysterious gray sheet price is irrelevant if there are few coins for sale near those rates at a given time. I want dealers to make money, but of course it's a matter of how much.

 

Having recently sold my Mantle collection I was surprised by the number of brow beating emails from people who thought the price should have been lower. This makes no sense to me. If you're interested, make an offer, if not, move on. Supply and demand will dictate the price as will the motivation of the buyer/seller.

[GoldFinger1969]

I recently sold a few coins and a 60's Mickey Mantle baseball card collection to fund a deal on Saint's I could not pass up. I decided I hate selling - ha ha - it's much more fun to buy! As a collector the only thing that matters to me is real supply and real demand based on what I can find for recent sold prices, asking prices, and available inventory. The mysterious gray sheet price is irrelevant if there are few coins for sale near those rates at a given time. I want dealers to make money, but of course it's a matter of how much. Having recently sold my Mantle collection I was surprised by the number of brow beating emails from people who thought the price should have been lower. This makes no sense to me. If you're interested, make an offer, if not, move on. Supply and demand will dictate the price as will the motivation of the buyer/seller.

 

At least you had classic cards to sell. The baseball hobby has been decimated by fakes, oversupply, and a total lack of interest on the part of young kids and young adults. You go to a monthly card show and it's mostly dealers.

 

Hopefully the mega-shows draw the kids back with a chance to meet-and-greet today's and yesterday's stars.

[GoldFinger1969]

Looks like a real market for 1927 MS65 Saints on Ebay at about $2,000:

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/171244508403?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

 

A bit higher than what I paid, but maybe this coin looks better, dunno. At least it's in the ballpark. If it goes for the current price, will be interesting to see if the other lower theirs (judging by their comments, most won't).

 

Grey Sheet bids were higher last 10 days or so I hear, let's see what happens.

[jom]

That looks like a very pretty coin with nice color. However, I've heard the TPGs are notorious for overgrading Saints in gem so I'd imagine there are some wide prices ranges for these.

 

jom

[GoldFinger1969]

That looks like a very pretty coin with nice color. However, I've heard the TPGs are notorious for overgrading Saints in gem so I'd imagine there are some wide prices ranges for these. jom

Jom, I have pics of the 1927 Saint I bought and BillJones included an MS-65/CAC GREEN that he owns here; scroll down about 80% of the way for the pics:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=7319807&Board=2&fpart=all&gonew=1#UNREAD

 

Comments on mine, Bill's, and the Ebay MS-65 going for $2,050 with about 10 hours left in the bidding are welcome.

 

I'm gonna try and check the auction houses to see what 1927 MS-65's are going for, too.

 

 

[Walkerfan]

Ebay completed auctions show the price range at 1900-2200 for 1927 PCGS MS 65s. So ave. price is about 2050.

[Walkerfan]

HA price variance is right about the same at 2000-2100 for the 1927 PCGS 65. Expect to pay an additional 200-300 bucks or so for one with a sticker or in an old generation holder.

[GoldFinger1969]

Expect to pay an additional 200-300 bucks or so for one with a sticker or in an old generation holder.

 

Is there a thread on this site or a website that can show me the years for all the different PCGS and/or NGC holders ? My 2 Saints (pics above) each appear to have the same-style holder and I don't think it's the latest one, but I can't tell if it's from the mid-1990's or early-2000's (I know it's not late-1980's).

[Walkerfan]

Expect to pay an additional 200-300 bucks or so for one with a sticker or in an old generation holder.

 

Is there a thread on this site or a website that can show me the years for all the different PCGS and/or NGC holders ? My 2 Saints (pics above) each appear to have the same-style holder and I don't think it's the latest one, but I can't tell if it's from the mid-1990's or early-2000's (I know it's not late-1980's).

 

Conder posted this ATS---he is the authority on the subject.

 

PCGS SLAB HISTORY

[Walkerfan]

The NGC one:

 

NGC SLAB HISTORY