The Crazies are at it again by Electric Peak Collection

[CSJournals-migration]

Gold Label Fever

 

Hello everyone! I hope you all had a wonderful holiday season!

 

As usual, I'm looking closely at a number of coins in the Heritage auction at the FUN show. One of them is an 1870 half dime, PCGS graded MS66, in an "old green holder" and sporting a gold CAC sticker, indicating that CAC thinks it is undergraded. The PCGS price guide (typically a bit on the high side...) says $1975 for this coin in MS66. And for those who believe it is undergraded, they say $4500 in MS67.

 

In addition to those TPG factors, the coin itself has colorful, but uneven toning, and the strike is very good but not exceptional. Without seeing it in-hand, I can't make a good overall judgement as to my grade opinion from the photos.

 

I understand that the PCGS OGH, CAC Gold, and the toning tend to influence prices upward in the current market. But the current bid on this coin (to be sold later this morning) is $8000 ($9400 with the buyer's fee)!!!

 

In the MS66 slab, it is not a top pop coin for those PCGS registry collectors. If that's what this is about, then it seems a bit risky to spend so much on a 66 hoping it will upgrade to 67 (which would be top pop). Or could this just be tough competition for CAC Gold stickers or for "nice" toning? In any case, it was a candidate for purchase that's now out of reach. Oh well...

 

Happy New Year! And good luck to those of you who are hopeful for registry awards. But let's try to keep any disappointments in perspective, and any related communications civil. Having received a couple awards, I can say that the recognition is appreciated. But I think we should not be actively seeking the awards, and certainly not deriving the most enjoyment from them. There's so much more to this great hobby than that.

 

- Alan

 

See more journals by Electric Peak Collection

[coinsbygary]

Alan

 

It seems that Heritage will be laughing all the way to the bank on that one, and I can't see the coins current owner being all that disappointed either. However, this insanity makes absolutely no sense to me. Oh well, I guess it all boils down to a number of people knowing what you have described really wanting this coin and willing to pay the premium to obtain it. I also think the adrenalin rush of winning a auction feeds into this frenzy somewhat.

 

Now concerning your perspective on the awards, my sentiments exactly. I wish everyone all the best in the awards. Win, lose, or draw I will be celebrating and congratulating all the winners on Friday. To have a portion of your collection recognized by NGC is a real honor that I hope everyone who puts their best into presenting their collections experiences at some point.

 

Gary

[wheat'swheats]

If you think that's crazy, what about a 1953 Lincoln cent in ms 67 that brought $12,000. When the registry set craze drops or just slows there are going to be some people that are not only going to be buried in a coin but covered in reinforced concrete.

[jpcienkus]

I went and found the coin as I was curious after reading your journal entry. I agree that the OGH, Gold Bean and registry crowd factored into the price, but I'm wondering if condition rarity also played a role as well. The last time a coin with this date and mint mark was sold at Heritage was 2009.

 

There were 3 sold that year. The only toned coin carried a $700-800 premium over the other two or roughly 1.5X the price of the other two sold. It was also the only coin to carry a CAC sticker too (green). Previous to 2009, one coin sold in 2007 and one in 2005.

 

Since there are only 15 coins graded MS66 in this date and mint mark, and only 9 in higher grades, I think when a coin like that hits the market, you'll see some premium paid. I agree that the ~100% premium (based on MS67 grade and listed price guide for PCGS @ Heritage site) is a bit much, but I've paid premiums for condition rarity coins when they've hit the market.

 

 

 

 

 

[jom]

I did the same JP. I also noticed there hasn't been an MS67 sold by Heritage in 17 years and none by PCGS. An MS68 sold for $14K or so some years ago.

 

So if you add in the color, OGH, Gold sticker and 7 bidders on the coin with at least two driving the price up you have a volatile situation.

 

How does one judge something "crazy" in a market where value is set by prices realized?

 

jom

[jpcienkus]

I did the same JP. I also noticed there hasn't been an MS67 sold by Heritage in 17 years and none by PCGS. An MS68 sold for $14K or so some years ago.

 

So if you add in the color, OGH, Gold sticker and 7 bidders on the coin with at least two driving the price up you have a volatile situation.

 

How does one judge something "crazy" in a market where value is set by prices realized?

 

jom

 

Thanks Jom as I think you completed my thought process with that comment. IMO, pricing can only be set/justified by using relevant and timely auction data. Sure, price guides can adjust pricing without transactional data, but would you put much stock in said price? (rhetorical). Now that another auction has taken place for this coin/grade, it will be interesting to see if the price guides adjust their pricing accordingly.

[Ultra Cameo Collection]

It seems there will always be someone willing to pay "crazy" prices for something. I have set a few auction records with some of my "can't live without it" purchases.

 

I can't say I regret any of my purchases. I definitely don't suffer from Buyers Remorse.

[johnny9434]

But the current bid on this coin (to be sold later this morning) is $8000 ($9400 with the buyer's fee)!!!

 

 

the buyers fee is where i see the insanity. jmo & for whats its worth

[Electric Peak]

Note that the following lot this morning was another 1870 half dime, PCGS graded MS67. One might argue from the photos that it not as pretty as the the prior MS66/CAC Gold. But what will PCGS do with their price guide based on an MS66 fetching $9400 and an MS67 getting only $3055?

[jpcienkus]

Good Point Electric Peak. After viewing the 67, IMO, it is ugly. Might be a technical 67, but the eye appeal is not there. Last time a 67 was offered at Heritage was 1996! 17 years ago. 4 were sold in 1995.

 

I'm surmising here, but I'd bet there we two people fighting over the MS66 with the gold bean and they were thinking it will be a long time before they get another shot at a 67 (yes, it's a 66, but the gold bean likely made them think of crack out re-grade) and they had to have the coin.

 

Edit to add: BTW, color is really hot these days. Some huge premiums being paid for them too.

 

 

 

[Ultra Cameo Collection]

Hey but if you buy this coin it will come with a coupon that lets you resell it with no sellers fees. Well at least the couple coins I purchased through Heritage above $1000 came with the coupons.

 

 

[jom]

Good point on the PCGS 67 but that coin looks lifeless (based on the photo). So is the MS66 piece worth 3X as much? I dunno...but this sort of thing happens all of the time in the coin market.

 

Many times people claim prices are "crazy" when they don't make sense due to the coin's grade. But grade and "value" aren't necessarily the same thing. What about die marriages or color? Both of those have justifiable instances where the premium could very well be worth it even though the coin's grade isn't as high as other examples that go for less money (like these 1870 H10Cs).

 

Some people like OGH holders. Some other find Gold CAC stickers special. What about high-end AU coins which in many cases are far superior to lower-end MS pieces? Could they be worth more?

 

All of these things make the coin market seem "crazy" at times if the listed grade is the only thing you base your value on.

 

jom

[hunter's gold]

Hi Alan. If you have time stop by the display area and take a look at my Lincoln Memorial display. It would be great too meet you

[mailman1959]

Without knowing who bought the coin it's hard to say it was a crazy price. If I have millions of dollars I'm not worried about spending $9400 on a coin I absolutely have to have. The only coins I ever bought with the intention of making money on were gold eagles, not graded. I at least doubled my money on all the ones I sold, everything else in my collection was purchased without worrying about getting money back for it. Plus I wanted to make a post to see if my "Best In Category" is shown on my banner, sorry.....MAILMAN