FMV: What does it really mean? posted by audrop

[CSJournals-migration]

Beware the ides of 'Funny Manipulated Value'. Use TMV instead.

 

Fair Market Value is a farce! I get a kick out of hearing about FMV from collectors. What is FMV? Fair Market Value is the price someone is welling to pay for a given coin at that moment. I don't have any idea where NGC and PCGS come up with their numbers, but if you really want to find out what a coin is worth, go to the auction archives and see what collectors are actually paying for the coin you want to buy. Heritage Auctions, Stack's Bowers, and other auction houses keep meticulous records of the sales of their coins. I believe many of us would be amazed at the True Market Value TMV) of the coins we buy. The really cool part of the archives is being able to actually see the coins that sold and compare them to the coin you're buying. Your prospective purchase may or may not demand a premium.

 

One of my main objections to the NGC registry is how they assign points for coins. They seem to be in cahoots with the mint. New mint products in MS/PR 70 are awarded more points than Gem older coins. Now let me ask you, "what coin is really more valuable, a 2013 70 (which is quite common with todays technology) or a 100 year old coin in GEM condition?" I remember the days when a perfect coin was hard to find and now, not quite 'a dime a dozen' but getting close with todays tolerances and machines doing all the work. Every coin of any denomination that the mint produces is identical to every other coin of the same denomination, except in the case of 'error coins'.

 

Let me reiterate that these posts are just 'one mans opinion' and take them for what their worth. If you want truly individual coins, start collecting coins dated prior to 1834. No two coins are identical because they made coins the 'old fashioned way' they stuck them by hand, that's right they were hammered or pressed with unequal pressure applied. If any of you have bothered to look at my sets on the Registry, you would notice I have a number of coins for my grandchildren starting in 2001. Sorry there aren't many pictures (they're on the PCGS Registry) but they all look the same, i.e. a 2006 Lincoln cent in MS67 pretty much looks like all the other 2006 MS67 Lincoln's out there. Very few newer coins have developed the patina that sets them apart from their peers.

 

Shown: 1876 20C 64 DCAM (if I did it right).

 

Happy Collecting, All and Merry Christmas.

Dan

 

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[Mr. Smith Guesser]

I think you hit the nail on the head there Dan. Anything's value is whatever someone is will to pay for it based on their circumstances.

 

What is more valuable? An ounce of gold? Or a gallon of water?

 

In normal, everyday situations for most people, the ounce of gold is way more valuable. But if you were lost in the desert, that gallon of water would be infinitely more valuable to you than the gold.

[Six Mile Rick]

Dan,

First off I don't really care for the point system. I have released a few sets that would be rank #1 as I am not interested in the certificates that NGC provides for top pop modern sets in PF. I do use the FMV on a regular basis on sales and purchases with a 20% -- more or less discount for sales and whatever since I do stick to -- In The Club -- for my purchases and sales. There are always the Heritage and Teletrade buys to compare the FMV to when I make a deal and that seems to make trade offers smooth,

 

Rick

[jgenn]

Chiming in from the world coins side of the house -- Matthew Bolton's steam powered coin presses were operational as early as 1789 at his Soho mint in London. ~jack

[Six Mile Rick]

The NGC price guide to me is not too far off. You have to consider the coin in fact that sells for 25% over and then the one that sells for 25% under. Coins are magical in their own way pursuing different values that would astound you . Truth is they are worth what the buyer is going to pay for them.

 

I have paid above NGC so called FMV for some great PL looking coins in MS.

 

Rick

[Kaiser14]

I agree, the prices (FMV) published by NGC and PCGS aren't reliable indicators of the true "worth" of a coin. Even auction prices can be deceptive, particularly when populations change significantly and trading is thin. One example is a 1929S Mercury dime in 67FB. A year a ago, the PCGS pop in 67FB was 27. Now it's 41, a more than 50% increase. A roll likely surfaced out of nowhere. Notwithstanding the dramatic increase in the pop, the published prices haven't changed from around $5,000 and, while there have been a lot of them available of late (naturally), dealers are still asking $5,000 and more. Good luck selling them. Funny thing is that dimes with comparable pops in 67FB (e.g., '29D, '34D, '39S and others) or even ones with dramatically lower pops (e.g. '27) can be bought for less than half, even a third, of what a '29S will cost if you want to buy one. The only way a collector can avoid getting skinned is to keep a close eye not only on the auction prices, but changes in the populations. Heritage always publishes the PCGS and NGC populations as of the date a coin is listed in the descriptive text, so when one looks at past sales, he can easily compare what the pop was then to what it is now and adjust his thinking accordingly. I'd imagine that in some series, particularly more recent ones, population changes, and thus swings in true "FMV" can be dramatic, so it's important to remain vigilant. Sooner or later, the market in an issue adjusts to its proper levels based on supply and demand.

[jackson64]

Nailed it....

 

The FMV is most often way off. I purchased a complete set of PF70 Sac proofs for under $300 recently. I thought it was a good deal and I like the newer designs with the changing reverses. I haven't looked up the FMV's of these coins and added them up but I'm sure it would be 5x or better. Heck, the 2001 of this series in PF70 is common and can be found for $40 yet I believe FMV has it for over $100...

 

That is just one example, you could go on and on like this...the Washington silver proof quarters?..4 to 5x higher FMV than you can buy them...any Rosie from 2000 to current in silver PF70 can be had for cheaper than the slabbing costs + shipping...and modern 69's can be bought in bulk for $3 to $5 per slab..

 

And I'm not going to go into the whole registry point skew...just say, why are coins with pops in the hundreds or even thousands getting 5 to 10 points per dollar value?...$50 coin getting 500 points....

[mvcoins-migration]

FMV is a funny thing. In the end FMV is whatever any seller will pay for a given coin. I've seen two bidders on EBAY and Heritage battle it out and push the price of a common coin well over what is regarded as FMV. For them I suppose the price paid to win the battle for that coin was worth it.

 

My experience is the FMV with modern coins is subject to change depending on the number of new high grade coins that appear. A good example is the 1991 P Kennedy Half Dollar with a FMV of around $200. Good luck getting that price. I've sold a few and they never go that high. Of the 192 NGC graded 1991 P Kennedy Half dollars 75 are MS 67 and one MS 68 has now appeared. You have a good chance of buying a 1991 Mint set and getting a MS 67 coin if you submit it yourself to NGC. The bottom line is the FMV for 1991 P Kennedy Half dollars is only going to drop as more coins are submitted. Sometimes collector demand supports a higher FMV even though the coins are quite common. American Silver Eagles (ASE) are a good example here.

 

FMV for classic pre-1965 coins seems to swing in part of the perceived value of Gold and Silver for middle grade coins. FMV for higher grade coins seems to be driven largely by collector demand first followed by supply. Some pre-1965 coins routinely sell for FMV or more, these include NGC plus and star coins as well as other very attractive coins. Eye appeal does count with collectors. Overall FMV is simply one guide as to the price. You need to look at the auction results and population numbers for a given coin to understand the current FMV. The one thing to consider is as collector demand changes so will the FMV.

[RichH]

In my own little world the registry points are so out of line not they are not even worth discussing.

 

For frame of reference, I collect 1 modern set, modern gold commems, and I have 18 certified including the $10 Library of Congress in MS70 . I starting buying years ago when gold was way down , I should have sold last year but I didn't, I probably have held them too long.

 

Anyway, I mostly focus on 19th century coinage, with my current object of affection either a 1794 or 1795 half dime in AU58 ( if I can find a nice one) which is about the same dollar value as all the modern gold coins, but only 3,500 registry points compared to 30,000. Totally absurd, almost 10X in this example, but it is what it is

 

Cheers !

 

Rich.

[Kenneth F]

I gave up on the price guides a long time ago. I will use results from Heritage and Stacks for a baseline. I tried to sell my 2006 (20th Anniversary) MS70 Gold Eagle recently.. out of 6 dealers in my area, to include Tucson, all I was offered was melt for it. FMV and Heritage shows recent sells for $2000ish.. NGC price for this coin was $2250.

 

Coin prices change like the wind. Factors one must keep in mind are: 1. Availability of said coin/coins. 2. Time of year (I imagine coin sells would drop during the Holidays because money is being spent elsewhere). 3. State of the economy.. if prices for everything else is going up, people pay bills.

[Yevrah1]

When I was looking to sell my fractional Gold Buffalos, melt was all I was offered at a show as well.

 

I had already decided to sell my bullion and keep the old gold.