Can someone please explain the Rarity Scale?

[jtryka]

The R.1 R.2 etc scale? What is it called? Is it named after anyone? I know that R.1 is common, but what do these specifically mean? This may be a dumb question, but before starting to collect bust halves, I have seldom encountered this system in anything else I collect. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

[nwcs]

I'm not sure who came up with it, but here is the scale:

 

R1: Common (tens of millions)

R2: Not so common (several million)

R3: Scarce (hundreds of thousands)

R4: Very Scarce (tens of thousands)

R5: Rare (several thousands)

R6: Very rare (several hundred)

R7: Extremely rare (few tens)

R8: Unique or nearly unique (several)

 

The guide I have said the scale came from the VAM book for Morgan and Peace dollars but I have my doubts which is why I said I am not sure who came up with it.

 

Neil

[jtryka]

So this may be the scale the VAM guys use for Morgans, but it doesn't make any sense for Bust halves, since by that standard, there should be no R.1s since the lowest total mintage is the 1834 with 6.4 million (hence none would have "tens of millions") yet I see lots of them classified as R.1. Could it be the numbers were scaled down for other series?

[coinman1794]

Here is the most common rarity scale, and that which is used for Bust halves:

 

This version is printed in Overton.

 

R.1 = Over 1000

R.2 =500-100

R.3 =201-500

R.4 =81-200

R.5 =31-80

R.6 =13-30

R.7 =4-12

R.8 =1-3

[jtryka]

thanks coinman!

[Tradedollarnut]

Personally, I prefer Bowers' Universal Rarity Scale:

 

URS 0 = none known

URS 1 = unique

2 = 2 known

3 = 3 or 4

4 = 5 to 8

5 = 9-16

6 = 17-32

7 = 33-64

8 = 65-124

9 = 125-249

10 = 250-499

11 = 500-999

12 = 1,000-1,999

13 = 2,000-3,999

14 = 4,000-7,999

15 = 8,000-15,999

16 = 16,000-31,999

17 = URS 8 x 1000

18 = URS 9 x 1000

etc (repeats above with more zeros).

[GDJMSP]

There are several different rarity scales - and some folks say that some of them apply to certain coins while others do not. Some have ratings that range from 1 through 8 - some 1 through 10 - some 1 through 20 etc etc. So it depends on who you ask as to which rarity scale is correct or which applies to a given coin.

 

[Oldtrader3]

They all seem to be loosely logarithmic. Wouldn't it be nice if we could settle on one? One that everyone could agree on and become familiar with? Just thinking out loud.

 

I feel It is a useful tool, if everyone is on the same page with it.

[coppercoins-migration]

The problem with the one that has 8 as the rarest on the scale is that it doesn't much work for coins that were typically minted in the hundreds of thousands to millions but are still considered rare. I think the URS by Bowers is much more applicable to US coins. The rarity scale posted with 8 being the rarest is used typically by token collectors and early type collectors, but that's about all it's good for...coins that were minted in small quantities with an even smaller survivability rate.

 

My estimation is that these people need to change to the URS so we will all be on the same scale. I personally use the URS, it lends to what I do. Otherwise nearly every Lincoln cent in the books, including varieties, would be a 1. What good would that do anyone? Try telling a Lincoln cent collector that 2000D cents fit in the same rarity category as the 1914D or 1909S VDB...yeah, right.

[coppercoins-migration]

To add, it makes much more sense to have a rarity of 1 for a unique coin - not 8. The URS just makes more sense.

[jtryka]

Debating the merits of the different systems might be interesting. For the URS, I am not clear why they need a value for "0" since if a coin doesn't exist, then who cares? Maybe you could argue it's for coins that were made but for which none exist anymore, but I seriously doubt that anyone would have the guts to declare it. Anyone want to proclaim decisively that all the 1964 Peace dollars are gone?

 

As far as one unified rarity scale, it seems like that would get rather unwieldy, since obviously collectors of different series think of rarity differently, so technically there are probably no "Rare" coins minted after 1900. Maybe you could do it on a 100 point scale, but again, you run into the same problems of translation (an R.35 for a Lincoln might be key, but compared to EDs, there common. I don't know the answer, so let's hear some thoughts!

[Tradedollarnut]

1907 Ultra High Relief $20

1921 $20

1927-D $20

1933 $20

 

All minted after 1900 and all absolutely rare.

 

1895 MS Morgan dollar. URS-0

[nwcs]

I'm all for standardization and uniformity in things like this.... but I've seen that in this hobby, anything that looks like cooperation is quickly snuffed out. So failing that, the best way is for the various book authors to agree on a universal scale. Then that will slowly force the collecting and dealing community to adjust.

 

Neil

[Oldtrader3]

I do not interpret this scale to be intended for mintage, just survival rate. You are correct that in stating that it isn't relevant to mintage. It would be misleading in that context. I have always assumed that this a survival descriptor.

[GDJMSP]

Ever since the first collector saw a coin that caught his eye and he said to himself - " I think I'll save that " the hobby of coin collecting has been changing - it has evolved.

 

When Sheldon first developed the rarity scale it worked fine - just like his grading scale. But they were both developed for copper coins only. And it was only several years later that both were adapted for use and applied to other coins. And as time progressed and the needs of the collecting community changed - grading and the rarity scale changed as well.

 

Perhaps this is how it should be. But I for one would very much like to see a sense of consistency & stability in regard to these things. But as long as there are differing opinions this is not likely to happen for longer than a short period of time at best.

 

 

[jtryka]

TDN,

 

I wholeheartedly agree with you, and there are a number of other gold issues that are absolute rarities in the 20th century, I would add the 1907 Indian eagle rounded rim, w/periods, and probably a few other branch mint Saints and some proof gold issues, but the total population of "absolute rarities" in the 20th century pales in comparison to the 19th and 18th centuries.

 

The one thing that's always troubled me about any rarity scale is that they only take into account one side of the equation, the supply side, while they virtually ignore the demand side. For instance, there may be quite a number of 19th century brothel tokens that are rare based on these scales, but if there are only a handful of collectors of such things, the rarity is almost meaningless. What if someone developed a relative rarity scale that took into account the existing populations relative to estimated demand for the coin or series? Wouldn't that address many of the issues of translating a scale from say, early copper to Lincoln cents? You could keep the absolute scale, but also show the relative scale right along with it, which would provide so much more information to the market.

[Tradedollarnut]

What if someone developed a relative rarity scale that took into account the existing populations relative to estimated demand for the coin or series?

 

They already have! It's called "Trends", "Greysheet", etc.

 

[jtryka]

Touche TDN!

[Nysoto]

Regarding bust halves, anything R.3 or less should not command a rarity premium for pricing, there is enough R.3's (201-500) to satisfy the existing bust half collector base, even though they are considered "scarce". R.4's have a slight premium, R.5's and up have huge rarity premiums.

 

Also, bust half rarity ratings have been updated a couple of times since the 1990 Overton 3rd edition rarity ratings. Even some of the big auction houses do not always reflect the rarity updates. Many have been downgraded, such as 1821 O-107 went from R.4 to R.3. Plus and minus designations have also been added such as R.4- for 1827 O-109. Do not trust ebay rarity claims. The John Reich Collectors Society publishes rarity updates for bust halves, and is well worth the $15 annual dues.