Ugly “Modern” Coins

[Lastufka Collection]

My journal entries don't seem to be posting here. So I'll cross-post this in hopes it doesn't double post later...

 

As some of you know, I recently started a First Year of Issue Type Set:

http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=127101

 

...so I bought Whitman’s Official Red Book Guide of United States Type Coins by Q. David Bowers.

 

In the introduction, Bowers discusses how Barber dimes, quarters and half dollars were considered ...ugly, in their time. And most collectors ignored them. Later generations of collectors sought out high quality pieces “only to find few had been saved. Coins once despised and ignored became very valuable.”

 

Couldn’t help but recall the forum thread taking place here now about the billion unwanted Presidential Dollars sitting in a government vault, and wonder if we’re making the same mistakes of numismatists of the past?

 

From super low 27,000 mintage numbers on the “hockey pucks” to some of the recent low mintage commemoratives... will our “ugly” modern coins become the rarities of the future?

 

PS. I should note that my entire collection currently consists of “modern” post-’64 coinage. I find most of the designs, errors and varieties fascinating. And I’m still just starting out. By quoting the “ugly” disparaging descriptions above, I’m simply making a reference to a widely held opinion on this and other forums, not my own opinion of the designs.

[cladking]

In a word... ...yes.

 

US collectors haven't caught on yet but collectors all over the world are waking up to the fact that coins made in the tens and hundreds of millions simply were not saved. The most extreme example is the 1969 Russian 5k which is up 24,000% this year. It's ironic that it's a 1969 issue since this is the year that the last of the die hard collectors in the US gave up on modern coins. Many had continued to set a few coins aside each year in the hopes that a market would develop but nothing was happening. No matter how few coins were saved there was simply no market so they just quit.

 

In those days most members of the middle and upper classes were US citizens so a lot of the coin collectors and people setting aside coins were in the US. In many countries there was just no interest in coins to speak of and most individuals couldn't afford to set aside coins except a few of the lowest denominations. In Russia coin collecting was actively discouraged as a waste of citizen time. There was a coin club in Moscow anyway but they had no interest in Soviet coins and even less interest in Soviet moderns. Countless millions of 1969 5k's went into circulation and they were used and abused. When a new currency was issued in the early '90's the old worn out coins which had survived were melted to make refrigerators and other consumer goods. The wear and destruction are so complete that many of these coins even have huge premiums in grades as low as VF.

 

It's the same in most countries. The moderns were not saved because they were too common. Now all that's left is the remnants of the mintages and these coins are in low grade and many are culls. Barber coins were saved in small numbers but some of the moderns appear to have not really been saved at all. If it weren't for mint sets then there would be far more raities. Even mint sets are no panacea since these sets have suffered horrible attrition because they couldn't be sold on the secondary market so they were cut up and the coins tossed into junk boxes and poundage. Mint sets are often in unstable packaging and if they haven't been removed by now are destroyed. Mint set mintages tended to be very low to start with. They are not like proof sets which sell like hotcakes.

 

Eventually collectors will probably look at US moderns and will discover that it's not only the "pop tops" that are rare but in many cases also the mid grades and sometimes even uncirculated coins. They'll discover that many of the best varieties don't even exist in unc and are rare in any grade because they were never discovered, never saved, and too rare in circulation to find. This will even apply to a few varieties made in substantial numbers.

[mtnstyne]

Each type coin has to be looked at individually. For example the 27k hockey pucks will never be rare in mint state. Every single one of these was purchased as an investment and is treated as art. Most will likely end up in slabs to last the test of time. A few will be doctored to be toned and command some premium. But in all none will be circulated or worn.

 

Now look at the 65-98 quarters. Not millions but BILLIONS were made, but try and find mint state examples and you have to pay for em. These were produced and used for currency and not too many folks bought them by the roll and put them away for later. It just wasn't the thing to collect at the time.

 

Statehood quarters on the other hand were produced to inspire new collectors and it worked like a charm. How many of you have bank rolls of state quarters sitting in a safe somewhere? I do and I don't even like them or collect the series. Same with the presidential dollars; however, I am considered starting to put these into circulation. If these modern coins were to ever begin to command a huge premium I would expect the market to quickly be flooded with all the unopened rolls, bags, mint sets.

 

Just my opinion, but if it is advertised as collectible on the mints website than it really isn't that collectible. Keep in mind again that I said at the beginning you have to consider each type coin individually.

[World Colonial]

For US coins, I believe the answer to your question is a resounding "no". The examples Cladking gives are for foreign or world coins which are a different dynamic altogether. For US coins, the primary exception that I see is for die varieties, mint errors and "conditional rarities", the latter which are only "rare" in a narrow, arbitrary and artificial sense due to the grading services. But even for these, only in mimited instances.

 

If you take a look at even just the NGC census today for Presidential dollars today, none of them are remotely scarce unless a collector is trying to buy the PL and then this is only as a strike designation. The lowest pops just in NGC are at least several hundred. And this is aside from the many more which are available now and could be graded. There are very few coins outside of US moderns and those that I term "perennial collector favorites" (Morgan dollars, Mercury Dimes and the like) that have anywhere near that many in the census in MS and even then, only in (much) lower grades.

 

[cladking]

For US coins, I believe the answer to your question is a resounding "no". The examples Cladking gives are for foreign or world coins which are a different dynamic altogether. For US coins, the primary exception that I see is for die varieties, mint errors and "conditional rarities", the latter which are only "rare" in a narrow, arbitrary and artificial sense due to the grading services. But even for these, only in mimited instances.

 

If you take a look at even just the NGC census today for Presidential dollars today, none of them are remotely scarce unless a collector is trying to buy the PL and then this is only as a strike designation. The lowest pops just in NGC are at least several hundred. And this is aside from the many more which are available now and could be graded. There are very few coins outside of US moderns and those that I term "perennial collector favorites" (Morgan dollars, Mercury Dimes and the like) that have anywhere near that many in the census in MS and even then, only in (much) lower grades.

 

 

There is indeed a different dynamic for US coins; The demand could become astronomical! Relative to existing demand it could increase thousands fold where this is unlikely in world coins such as Russian issues. Even today a significant percentage of the demand for Russian coins is from the US. Most of this demand is for older coins and will likely be stifled by higher prices. Meanwhile the little domestic demand for modern Russia is likely to grow. But more importantly as collectors become more sophisticated they tend to broaden their horizons and they may include US coins in their pursuits. The demand can come from all over the world and the fact that most post-1964 coinage is less common than the older coins will become very obvious very fast.

 

The reason that moderns are increasing so fast isn't that the demand is high. There are not hoards of Russian, Spanish, and Greek collectors rushing out to buy modern junk because they heard it was rare. There are very few people collecting moderns and they are finding it very scarce. Some US moderns will prove to be even scarcer.

[jackson64]

My opinion--a resounding NO.

 

Let's look at the mintage of the 3 cent nickel series for example. Over half of this series' dates had lower mintages than the 1916-D Mercury dime. Why can even the scarce 1877 be had for a fraction of a heavily worn Mercury 16-D?

 

I suspect that some of it has to do with the metallic content,obviously much of it is the preference in design, but in the end--values have less to do with pops than with collectors demand versus number of available items.

 

Ultra high grade moderns will never be rare--or even scarce. Tens of thousands of pristine examples have been graded or continue to sit in mint capsules. Most will never be used for circulation which is a biggie.

 

In the end I can only speculate since I have no way of knowing what collector taste may be in the future..but the unattractive designs of the Prezzies ( as an example), the cheap alloy they are made of and the tendency that many have to turn unattractive colors or get milky--just not seeing people scrambling for them in the next 100 years ( if there even is a USA 100 years from now).... just my opinion for what its worth..

[cladking]

My opinion--a resounding NO.

Ultra high grade moderns will never be rare--or even scarce. Tens of thousands of pristine examples have been graded or continue to sit in mint capsules. Most will never be used for circulation which is a biggie.

 

Ultra high grade 1969 quarters were rare in 1969. They certainly aren't more common today. This same thing applies to numerous moderns and some which aren't even available in unc. This is simply the situation. It's the same reason that a 1969 Russian 5k goes for over $800 now; people didn't save them. It's just a little piece of junk made in huge numbers but collectors don't care about mintages when they seek a coin they just want one. For many collectors it's just nostalgia and they want something to remind them of another time or another part of their lives. But people didn't save the coins and now there's a little bit of demand.

 

Try finding a nice well made '82-P quarter or an XF '72-D type "b" reverse. Such coins are even rarer than a '69 5 kopek but the demand is even lower. I seriously doubt this situation will persist indefinitely. The potential demand is huge but the attrition is extremely high because people don't care. If these coins weren't so rare dealers would be popping them out of albums and spending them every day.

 

Modern coins are not cheap because they are common. They are cheap because the demand is almost nonexistent.

[jackson64]

My opinion--a resounding NO.

Ultra high grade moderns will never be rare--or even scarce. Tens of thousands of pristine examples have been graded or continue to sit in mint capsules. Most will never be used for circulation which is a biggie.

 

Ultra high grade 1969 quarters were rare in 1969. They certainly aren't more common today. This same thing applies to numerous moderns and some which aren't even available in unc. This is simply the situation. It's the same reason that a 1969 Russian 5k goes for over $800 now; people didn't save them. It's just a little piece of junk made in huge numbers but collectors don't care about mintages when they seek a coin they just want one. For many collectors it's just nostalgia and they want something to remind them of another time or another part of their lives. But people didn't save the coins and now there's a little bit of demand.

 

Try finding a nice well made '82-P quarter or an XF '72-D type "b" reverse. Such coins are even rarer than a '69 5 kopek but the demand is even lower. I seriously doubt this situation will persist indefinitely. The potential demand is huge but the attrition is extremely high because people don't care. If these coins weren't so rare dealers would be popping them out of albums and spending them every day.

 

Modern coins are not cheap because they are common. They are cheap because the demand is almost nonexistent.

This is essentially what I said in the prior paragraph/sentence of which you edited out.....if there were only 5 of a particular coin but only 3 people wanted one, there would still be an abundance...conversely if there were 20,000 PF70's of a date ( think 1995 ASE's) and 50,000 people wanted one..well then prices would rocket...both demand and availability together dictate the value....