Baltimore Show Observations

[TomB]

I just returned home from the Baltimore show, where I spent all day Friday and haf-day Saturday. Overall, there appeared to be quite a bit of activity, I'll post individual observations below-

 

-There was lots of gold for sale, as might be expected in this climate, however, I didn't see any of it selling.

-Quite a few "collector coins" are in SEGS holders right now. These are apparently problem-free, accurately graded coins and many have positive eye appeal. If you are looking for a mid-grade, better date SLQ, Barber quarter or WLH you will have success looking closely at these SEGS coins.

-As per usual, SEGS also has the highest percentage of blatantly AT coins in their holders. They might simply care to authenticate a coin and grade and simply don't care about the toning. If you view it that way, then SEGS is a good holder.

-Some gold was being offered by the public to dealers and the dealers were buying. It seemed that most ever double eagle offered was a 1904 Liberty. These are sort of the generic date, as far as I am concerned, for nice looking Liberty double eagles.

-There were more foreign dealers than I can remember at a Baltimore show and their tables looked busier than anytime I can remember.

-A local television station was recording the announcement of the return of the stolen DuPont dollar and, over the speaker's voice, the PA system kept announcing that FedEx was there to pick up packages. It was pretty funny if you were there.

-For the first time ever I had someone turn down the opportunity to view some of my best toned coins. He simply said he wasn't into color and wasn't interested. Oh well. I try to view what everyone specializes in so that I can learn from them.

-There were many matte proof Buffalos and almost no matte proof Lincolns. This is consistent with the last few years. Also, most every matte proof Lincoln available was a dog. The bid sheets are way off on these pieces.

-Lots of Seated coinage is in NGC and PCGS holders that has been previously cleaned and that now has a nice pattern of peripheral toning. These are generally graded MS61 and MS62. I stayed away from these pieces.

-High end toned material is more scarce than usual. It seems that most pieces available are low-end for eye appeal or are high end for eye appeal and very high end for price.

-Modern proofs were almost non-existant. It appeared a few years ago that there was a glut of modern, clad coinage in PF68DCAM and PF69DCAM holders, now there is quite a reduction. That is likely due to the other pieces being absorbed, probably disproportionately to newer collectors.

-David Lange is awesome! It was late Friday when I asked if he would look at a single coin for me and, although he was clearly tired from a long day and the bourse was officially closed, he graciously took his time and gave me an in depth opinion. Thanks, David!

-Plenty of the toned Silver American Eagles in all holders are AT. No doubt about it.

-There were only three 1796 quarters that I noticed on the floor and they had their usual grade distribution. One FA2, one AG3 and one AU58. Mid-grade coins from this year are impossible.

-One dealer had three attractive 1804 quarters.

-I was disappointed at how some of the larger dealers handled the public aspect of the show. David Lawrence Rare Coin had their buyer gone by Friday morning. So, the public had no one to offer their coins to from DLRC. Also, it looked as through DLRC only put out their super high priced rarities on Saturday and left the bulk of their table space empty. I don't get it. Also, Spectrum was gone completely by early Saturday. Poof!

-The most common slabbed coins were MS Morgans and WLHs, this is typical. The overall quality of these coins, while good, was not as high as I would have liked to see.

-Several key date Barber quarters were on the floor in solid mid-range grades including at least three '01-S coins.

-One dealer had a complete Mexican type set in a Dansco album and it was attractive. I asked him what he wanted for the entire set, as this is how many dealers like to sell the coins. He told me he wouldn't sell the set intact. He would only sell it piece-by-piece so that he wouldn't have to figure out an overall price and so that he could maximize his profits.

-Coins of Merritt allowed me to take some of their inventory back to my hotel room with me so that I could examine pieces overnight. I had never met them before. That was cool.

-One dealer had a $600 Seated half stolen from his case as I was looking at some of his other coins. He wasn't happy about it. He didn't blame me, he just wasn't happy.

-I showed just how much of a nimrod I can be at Angel Dee's table. Any of you who do much in high end, early Lincoln cents know Andy. Well, he hands me a coin that I thought was gorgeous! I never looked at the slab. It looked like a PF64BN that was nearly blue and purple. I asked how much and he told me upon which I said I'd take it. As he was writing out the invoice I noticed it was a business strike and not a proof. Well, I wasn't interested in buying an MS of this date, especially at that price, so I told him I was an insufficiently_thoughtful_person and that I made an error. He was kind enough to void the sale. Fortunately, I found something else I liked at his table and so bought that instead.

-Goose3, Tootawl, IdahoGal, and Merz2 met up with me briefly.

-Merz2 was generous enough to share his proof Lincoln set and it was way cool to look at. The variations in color were remniscent to the variations seen in IHC proofs but is something that is not talked about.

-Here is how not to run your business. I noticed a completely original, attractive and problem-free coin that is a key date and I asked to see it. After getting a price I immediately bought it and the seller, who is a large dealer, states to his apprentice, directly in front of me, that the coin I just bought is a bad value. It was a bad value to him because the price structure from F12 through MS60 was fairly flat and for not much more money I could buy an MS60. There's accounting and there's coins. This coin is way attractive and is a much better value than a beat-to-death MS60.

-EVP was there along with Beboplawyer and the Ultimate Lurker. We spoke some but didn't get a chance to have dinner together.

-I was disappointed to see what I consider an AT Oregon in an NGC holder. The coin had an unusual toning appearance and color scheme. Also, it looked as though a liquid solvent was used to impart the accelerated toning as there were residue spots from impurities in the solven still on the coin. This is a coin that I would think would turn rather quickly. Oh yes, it was going for a substantial premium and many would buy it because it was certified.

-Quite a bit of the "WOW" toned coins, that are raw and that are being offered for extreme money, are AT. Buyer beware in this market.

 

I'm certain there are other things that I will remember later.

[toyonakataro]

Thanks for the report TomB

Although I myself couldn't attend the show, I was told by a board member that he found a nice bust quarter(it's not 1804 ) in mid-circulated grade for me. I'm pretty happy because I've been looking for one in VF-AU for a long time

I wish I could see your box of toned coins......

As for coins in SEGS holders, it might be good for a knowledgeable collector like you to cherry pick properly graded coins in their holders, but as an ignorant collector, I would NEVER buy SEGS....I've had enough...

[Weidel Legacy Collection]

Thanks for the in-depth report. While its much better to attend a show, it sure is nice to get a participant's perspective of things when that isn't possible.

[michael]

tomb you are extremely astute

 

on your accessment of matte proof lincolns

 

the key for me to matte proof lincolns are superb gem full red

 

the bids are totally crazy low on these coins

 

for example

 

try to go find a full red pcgs proof 66 1909 matte proof one of the hardest matte proof coins to get in full even red surfaces no striations no streaks stains with great eye appeal surfaces

 

again

 

where the coin is bascially spot free original evenly colored both sides and greatly eye appealling and no verigated toning no streaks spots stains

 

you will not be able to buy this coin for under 2700 wholesale!!!!

 

take for instance the matte proof 1909 in ms66 red supposedly one of the common matte proof dates!!

 

not so with surfaces as per the above!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

michael

[DaveG]

Thanks for the report!

 

How would you characterize the gold that wasn't selling?

 

Mint State with-motto Coronet? Saints? no-motto Coronet? Classic Head? Old tenor?

[dpoole]

It's terrific to hear your thorough and knowledgeable observations, Tom, and to get your sage advice again. I came over from across the street precisely to find this thread! Thanks!

[EVillageProwler]

David Lawrence Rare Coin had their buyer gone by Friday morning. So, the public had no one to offer their coins to from DLRC. Also, it looked as through DLRC only put out their super high priced rarities on Saturday and left the bulk of their table space empty. I don't get it.

 

TomB,

 

Think about this very carefully. Unless my tired eyes and brain missed something in your post, you didn't offer the big picture to the membership here. This has nothing really to do with DLRC and everything to do with how dealers are reacting to the big picture.

 

There were a couple of big and interconnected things going on at the show that comprise the big picture.

 

BTW, nice pics of your baby daughter.

 

EVP

[Wihlborg]

Tom,

 

Another one of your great show reports. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and observations with us.

 

John

[Hoot]

Great report Tom - in depth as usual. Your observations make it all sound like a nasty soap opera .

 

Hoot

[Wihlborg]

Your observations make it all sound like a nasty soap opera

 

Hey Hoot,

 

Sounds more like trying to act in a nasty soap opera while walking through a minefield!

 

John

[Hoot]

Hey Hoot,

 

Sounds more like trying to act in a nasty soap opera while walking through a minefield!

 

John

 

That might make a good soap opera! Think of all the casualties .

 

Hoot

[goose3]

Tom.

 

I couldn't believe it when he turned down the chance to thumb through your box of goodies!

 

Not me!!!

 

 

Folks, I got to see Tom's icon coin in hand. It (and the rest of the box) was a gorgeous coin and after looking at his box early in the morning I found myself thinking when looking over toned stuff throughout the day....."That looks like TomB toning"

[LucyBop]

BeBopLawyer!!!!!

 

Be Bop, A Be Bop Baby.......

[TomB]

As for EVP's post; either I'm being rather stupid (a distinct possibility) or EVP is just too subtle (stranger things have occurred). I'm not sure what you are getting at.

 

Some additional points from the show-

 

-There was a gorgeous MS66 $1 gold that I would swear was a PF. I asked the owner why it was in an MS holder and he shook his head and grimly said "I was wondering that myself". He submitted it as a PF and did not agree with the designation either.

-One segment of the market I would be cautious with right now is in the area of silver, PCGS and NGC slabbed, MS68 Washington quarters. There seems to have been an explosion in population, yet the prices have climbed very high. Look, if you have the money and want the coin, then go for it. However, I think they are a poor buy right now. Coins that were MS67 only a short time ago are now falling into MS68 holders because the services had, for a very long time, put an artifiical cap on the MS68 population. The upshot of that was that there were artificially few MS68 Washingtons. Now that the market in these coins is more mature, the services are backing off their standards for these pieces and the coins are being made. Stay away, more will come out. I saw quite a few MS68 Washingtons at this show and was not uniformly impressed.

-A larger than normal number of 1794 and 1795 half dollars were available and the quality was very nice. These were generally VG8-EF40 coins, which is a nice grade range on these pieces.

 

Contrary to what it might seem like, I had a good show.

[stman]

A larger than normal number of 1794 and 1795 half dollars were available and the quality was very nice. These were generally VG8-EF40 coins, which is a nice grade range on these pieces.

 

Hi Tom. Great show insight as usual thanks!!! Did you notice many Flowing Hair Dollars available at the show? I was going to have someone look at a couple for me... but decided this is a coin I just need to see in person myself to make a decision. I'll be looking at the upcoming Santa Clara show.

[braddick]

Thanks Tom. You've armed us with some good info. Stuff to look for and stuff to avoid.

[dragon]

Tom,

 

Many of the business strike $1.00 gold pieces (especially from the 1880's) can come with very deep PL fields and strongly contrasting devices making them appear as obvious proofs at first glance. It is not uncommon to confuse an MS with a proof on some of these.

 

dragon

 

edited to add: This is also true for some dates in the $3.00 gold series.

[chinook]

Heres a pic of a PL Princess

[BillJones]

Hi Tom. Great show insight as usual thanks!!! Did you notice many Flowing Hair Dollars available at the show? I was going to have someone look at a couple for me... but decided this is a coin I just need to see in person myself to make a decision. I'll be looking at the upcoming Santa Clara show.

 

I bought this 1802 over 1 dollar in NGC VF-35 at the show for stock. I had to overpay for it, which means that I have going to own it for while. But coins like this attract a lot of attention at the small shows, which means that people might look at my other coins.

 

 

There were many early dollars available, but the prices were high; and a lot of them had problems.

[stman]

Thanks for your reply and sharing your purchase Bill. Yes this early material is tough to find in original problem free condition. And I agree they don't come cheap when found. When I bought my flowing hair half that I found at a small local show..... I knew the dealer and was surprised he wasn't out of hand on the price.

 

Although I still paid much more than the sheets reflect for these pieces. And I full expected to do so.

[BillJones]

When it comes to early dollars, one can't buy the PROBLEM coins in NGC and PCGS holders at the sheet prices.

 

I know that the use of the term "problem coin" might seem inappropriate for a top company slabbed coin, but when it comes to Bust Dollars, they are out there. One piece I saw in Baltimore in a VF-25 holder had a big scratch that ran from one side of the obverse to the other. It was covered by toning, but it was WAY too big to miss. The guy still wanted $2,400.00 for it. The "bid" price on the coin was $1,975.00.

[stman]

Bill, I agree there are many problem early Dollars (and halves) out there in the top grading company's holders. What I'm seeing is they are basically net grading them down without stating it on the holder as Anacs does. IMO this does the industry (collectors mainly) no great favors. New collectors look at these and figure the big boys graded this piece so it must not have problems.

 

As we know this is not always the case.

[Tootawl]

It was really great to see you again, Tom. It's always a pleasure to talk to someone who is "average" height like I am.

[Oldtrader3]

EVP: For those of us who live on the fringes of coin collector's civilization, what is the big picture? Is it market saturation, demand/supply issues, quality for price or grade-flation? I have not been to a major show since moving from the Bay Area almost a year ago. Also, almost every coin that I have looked at on the net recently seems to be somewhat bag-marked for grade (at least for gold coins) and listed at high premiums. Actual nice material (for grade) seems to have disappeared.

 

[EVillageProwler]

Also, almost every coin that I have looked at on the net recently seems to be somewhat bag-marked for grade (at least for gold coins) and listed at high premiums. Actual nice material (for grade) seems to have disappeared.

 

Charles,

 

For a person living at the fringe of coin collector's civilization, your observation feels quite "big picture" to me. This, of course, will necessarily put even *more* upward price pressure on the truly nice stuff. But, what if the truly nice stuff really did disappear?

 

The sad thing is that it doesn't matter if I print more money in my basement, 'cuz I can't buy what's not available. Do we adjust our expectations on what is "nice" material?

 

Two things to think about:

1. What options would we expect dealers to have for handling this sudden dearth of quality material?

2. What options would we expect collectors to have for handling this same situation?

 

You can interpret "quality" material in some combo of the following ways: gorgeously original, accurately graded, semi-key or key, and eye appealing. The material can be circ or not. Since my training and knowledge base is generally of the classical material, it would be most useful if we limit this discussion to that market area.

 

EVP