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What's Hot and what's not in U.S. Coinage these days.

32 posts in this topic

Capped Bust Halves have cooled off considerably, but I wouldn't exactly say they were not hot. Just less hot.

 

Franklin Halves, however, have dropped off the edge of a cliff. If you are into these at all, now is the time to buy.

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It may be my imagination, but high gtrrade Lincoln Cents routinely out bid the sheets. I have tried and tried in several auction houses and Ebay unsuccessfully, watching the prices rise out of range.

 

Anyone else had this observation?

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I see the chances of 3CN appreciating to any meaningful extent in the current environment to be near zero. Versus other US coins, its not overpriced but I do not see these prices going anywhere. Its a forgotten series for the most part and that is unlikely to change.

 

Classic commemoratives have been "dead money" for over 20 years. They were big "investor" coins in the late 1980's and then crashed. And in my opinion, given how common most of them are, I still consider them either as not cheap or overpriced. They would still be one of the LAST coins I would buy as an "investment". I could easily see many or most these coins selling for even LESS in another 10 years than they do today.

 

I consider the capped bust half a desirable coin, much more desirable coins than the other examples in the above posts. But most of these coins I do not consider to be scarce either, not at all. And though I do not consider them particularly overpriced, I do not consider them cheap either.

 

The Franklin half I consider to be a typical "collector' coin, not an "investment" one. I would suspect that the reason prices have fallen substantially is because of both who owns them and that they are common. Probably many collectors have been forced to sell them because they need the money and have been under financial stress.

 

I expect most coins - the vast majority - to lose value for at least several years. And many of them substantially. The only thing that would change my mind is if my expectations for metals prices turn out to be wrong. I am bullish on metal prices later but bearish now. But even if this does happen, I still do not expect the economy to improve enough to enable the typical collector to either accumulate more coins or even keep what they have.

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Franklin Halves, however, have dropped off the edge of a cliff. If you are into these at all, now is the time to buy.

 

Which is why I picked this time to put a Franklin set together ;)

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These are pretty hot now.

 

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agreed hot +++++++++++++

====================================================

coins that are currently not hot

as supply is extremely limited ++++++++

 

as you need to have much specialized knowledge to understand when you see something outstanding for what it is

 

unmessed, uncleaned, original skinned 1794 halfdimes

 

original, hazy, uncleaned unmessed with original greenish orange-ish gold skinned never dipped choice and gem proof liberty gold eagles 1880-1907

 

same as above small eagle silver dollars and with no adjustment marks and full dentiled rims

 

same as above choice au better date three dollar gold

 

same as above +gem and better original cased set toned cameo+ proof morgan dollars

 

original skinned, fully centered, full weight xf and above small planchet pine tree shillings

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Which coins will actually increase in price more than others is mostly (but not entirely) a crapshoot. But from a collectible standpont, from US coins, I would rate these as best buys:

 

US Assay Office $10 and $20 gold. These coins are not cheap and the $20 is not that scarce either, but its a historical coin and if I remember correctly, an AU specimen costs in the vicinity of $10,000 or maybe even less. That represents a multiple to the bullion value of 10 or less which I consider a good value. This of course, assumes that the buyer has the money.

 

Some colonial coins I think represent reasonable values.

 

Some proof coinage dated prior to 1858 a few years ago I thought were reasonably priced also, though I do not know what they would cost now. Northeast Numismatics sold an 1857 NGC PR-63 quarter for $5750 a few years ago and the 1833 Classic Head cent I think could be bought in the vicinity of $6000 or maybe slightly more.

 

Some 19th century cameo proofs used to represent reasonable value.

 

Historically, the series that have provided the highest PROBABILITY of making money in a coin "bull" market have been generic liberty gold, $20 St Gaudens, $10 Indian and Morgan Dollars. This is because they are the most correlated to bullion prices. I'm not bullish on these coins at all now unless bought at relatively low premiums to melt.

 

These are only examples but as I have stated before, from an "investment" standpoint and for collectible value, selective world coins are better values over most US coins by a landslide.

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I have seen the prices on low grade 1916-D Mercury dimes rise in just the last 1-2 years. AG-3 has gone from being in the low 400 range to 500+. Dollar wise that isn't all that significant but percentage wise it is.

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I ask this because, I want to start collecting some old rare coins that have a chance to grow.

Shield nickels! Talk about a ridiculously underappreciated series, and this must be it. They are awfully tough to find nice, but one approach might be to work on a run of proofs.

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The problem with buying an "underappreciated' coin or series from a financial standpoint is that most of them are likely to stay that way. When I think of series from US coinage that fall into this category I think of: Two Cent, 3CN, 3CS, Shield nickels, Barber coinage, Liberty Seated Coinage and Trade dollars. Even Peace dollars to some extent. Maybe this is not an accurate description of all of them or every coin in these series, but it appears to be of most of them based upon what I know.

 

Though I do not consider them underappreciated, I'm sure that collectors of US modern circulating coinage think this is also true about these coins.

 

Calling a series underappreciated is simply another way of saying that most collectors either do not like them or like them less or much less than another one. I see no reason why these series or others will increase in popularity versus those that are more popular except marginally or in isolation.

 

I still think that some of these series represent better collectible value than the others in some or many instances. Much better value than the most popular ones which are VASTLY overpriced in many instances. But this is an independent issue from their financial potential and whether someone is going to be willing and able to pay more for them and if so, how much.

 

 

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If you wanted to collect/invest at the same time, first decide if you believe the precious metals markets, specifically gold and silver, are headed up substantially (perhaps gold to 2k or much more) in the years to come. The coin market in general may weaken with this sluggish economy to the point where it may take years to get past the level that the market is at now. Never buy rare coins as an investment and expect to make money.

 

That said, if you are in the corner that believes gold and silver are headed much higher (drawing in investors to buy junk silver and basically classic American gold that is as good as bullion) why not pick a gold series that you can afford? Quarter Eagles and Half Eagles, purchased in grades priced close to bullion (such as XF Half Eagles etc) may be fun to collect and then sell when gold gets pretty high.

 

You could I guess do the same with silver, though you would need lots and lots of junk silver Franklins and Walkers, for example, to get the same dollar amount as gold.

 

Happy collecting!

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There are only two series that come to mind whose popularity has changed substantially, one since I started collecting and one right before it.

 

When I returned to the United States in 1975, EAC were cheap, maybe dirt cheap. I remember my step grandmother giving me an 1803 VG large cent (variety I cannot remember but it was not a rare one) which the Red Book listed at $10 in 1977. Today, what does the coin sell for? $100 or thereabout? Higher grade specimens I do not recall as being that expensive either.

 

Another one is the capped bust half. These were already not cheap by the time I started buying them in my opinion, with common dates listing at $35 in VF, $45 in XF and $450 in UNC in 1977 or near there, But apparently, they had increased substantially in the early to mid 1970's. I recall one source I have listed them at $250 in 1975 and $75 in 1970 in UNC. The Red books I have from the late 1960's and early 1970's are consistent with this data.

 

So yes, its not impossible for this to happen but it does not appear to happen that often.

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I agree with you. Gold and silver prices are usually the best indicator of the health of the coin market, though not always. In the 1980's, many coin prices rose anyway even though bullion only did so sporadically and lost substantial value in the decade.

 

Contrary to almost everyone on this forum, I expect metal prices to perform poorly for several years. But if I am wrong, then yes, coin prices GENERICALLY will likely increase but some much more than others.

 

The primary reason coin prices have increased as much as they have since I started collecting in 1975 is not because of metal prices or inflation. Its because of rising affluence and the credit MANIA. The credit mania is OVER and with it the capacity to pay current prices will go with it and to my knowledge, this is already happening.

 

Even if metal prices go up, the premiums that collectors and "investors" can or will pay for coins generally will decrease relative to bullion. I expect bullion to do better than most coins for the foreseeable future. I expect it to fall less now and rise more later. Combine this with the lower probability of making money and the greater likelihood of losing it, this makes bullion a much better economic choice than practically all coins.

 

I expect that it will take extreme selectivity or great timing to make more money by buying collectible coins than just buying and holding bullion. Most will not be able to do it successfully.

 

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Franklin Halves, however, have dropped off the edge of a cliff. If you are into these at all, now is the time to buy.

 

My humble observation would be that this is true for MS65 and below.

 

However, I find it very hard to find MS66 and up, (FBL or non-FBL, I don't care) on eBay and TT. Those that I do find are either too expensive for me, have ugly toning, or both.

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Franklin Halves, however, have dropped off the edge of a cliff. If you are into these at all, now is the time to buy.

 

My humble observation would be that this is true for MS65 and below.

 

However, I find it very hard to find MS66 and up, (FBL or non-FBL, I don't care) on eBay and TT. Those that I do find are either too expensive for me, have ugly toning, or both.

 

My guess on this would be that MS-66 and MS-67 are the conditional rarities. Possibly, the owners are more affluent than those who the MS-65 and below and have - so far - been able to afford to keep them. I do not expect that to last for these or many, many other coins.

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Silver dollars are well, made of silver and they are big coins. Collectors and "investors" like both of those attributes. This gives these coins an automatic built in financial adavantage over smaller base metal coins such as the 3CN and Shield nickels discussed above.

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Franklin Halves, however, have dropped off the edge of a cliff. If you are into these at all, now is the time to buy.

 

My humble observation would be that this is true for MS65 and below.

 

However, I find it very hard to find MS66 and up, (FBL or non-FBL, I don't care) on eBay and TT. Those that I do find are either too expensive for me, have ugly toning, or both.

 

65FBL and above are very hard to find, yes, but compare their prices today to those from a couple of years ago, and you will see what I mean. For example, on multiple occassions in the past few months, I have bought 66FBL coins for the same amount or less than I paid for 65FBL's of the same date and mintmark a couple of years ago.

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one of the most underappreciated series of coins

 

that are the crux of collecting,

the first,

and most historical are colonial coins and coins that had active circulation in the pre federal era (pre 1790)

 

 

 

 

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From my perspective I would answer: Collect what you find interesting, beautiful and can afford.

 

If you don't think coins are cool or understand how they can be beautiful don't get involved with the hobby. Coin markets are inefficient. Transaction and overhead cost are high. I think it would be fair to say that most collectors lose money on their collections.

 

I understand the economic dimension to collecting but in my opinion, it needs to be secondary. If you don't lose too much money and have a lot of fun and learn something along the way, I think you are doing great!

 

 

 

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in other words

 

only buy coins with discretionary income and buy coins you like for collecting and can hold for 5 10 years or more ASSUMING you bought decent, rare, original, eye appealling, problem free, coins at currentfair market prices with a fundemendial reason to rise in demand

 

doing anything else is okie but can maybe cause big wins but more than likely large losses

 

coins are THINLY traded in an undercapitalized market that at many times are not liquid

 

oh and welcome to the boards (thumbs u

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Your comments are nice and make sense in theory, but are not necessarily practical in actuality.

 

I agree with you that coins should not be bought for financial gain. But many collectors and quasi "investors" have tens or hundreds of thousands and some millions tied up in their collections. Its hard to view coins solely or primarily as a hobby under these circumstances.

 

I also agree with the obstacles you mention related to the recovery of the buyer's outlay, which is one reason why I do not buy the coins most other collectors buy. Most collectors will have an immediate loss of varying amount (my estimate is 20% to 40%) as soon as the coin is theirs. This requires either long holding periods or treating the purchase as at least a partial consumption expense. There are some coins where I am willing to live with these economics, but not very many. At the current time, I intentionally buy coins which I would expect to be able to sell for more immediately, but none of them are US coins.

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in other words

 

only buy coins with discretionary income and buy coins you like for collecting and can hold for 5 10 years or more ASSUMING you bought decent, rare, original, eye appealling, problem free, coins at currentfair market prices with a fundemendial reason to rise in demand

doing anything else is okie but can maybe cause big wins but more than likely large losses

 

coins are THINLY traded in an undercapitalized market that at many times are not liquid

 

oh and welcome to the boards (thumbs u

That`s the best advice anyone can give in all hobbies of collecting from coins,comics,baseball cards, Star Wars action figures to yes even Magic the Gathering cards. (thumbs u

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I agree with both of your sentiments. And in the environment that I see coming, I would not want to have a substantial "investment" in the other areas you listed. I expect the peak to trough losses in categories like that to be staggering, if that has not happened already.

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Exactly what selective world coins are you refering to? If a collector were to look to purchase highly appreciating world coins exactly which coins are a solid collector/investor purchase?

 

$ilverHawk

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