The Early Half Dollar market

[physics-fan3.14]

I've seen a few comments recently by people talking about the Capped Bust Half market, and how it has been cooling off recently. When did it peak, how high did it go, how far has it come down since then? Has the Capped Bust market generally been trending with the overall coin market, or has it been moving somewhat independently?

 

Any thoughts you have on the Capped Bust market, where is, where its heading, how its performing, etc, would be appreciated!

[jtryka]

Last I checked, the early dates (1807-20, particularly the 1807-15) were exceedingly strong. Not sure if that's still true, but in any case the coins and prices I've seen over the last couple months give credence to that view.

[Houston Investor]

The Early Bust 50c dates are very strong. I bought an NGC VF 1812 50c from a poster ATS Bay stuff and retailed it a week later. This issue is a tough popular date and like a popular play in a coach's playbook an issue I am always a buyer of if the price is right as I know I will move it quickly.

[Mark T]

I think it probably peaked in late 2008 along with the rest of the market . Shortly after the stock market crashed in 2008 and early 2009 you could get amazing deals on these coins. I believe the Bust market has since stabilized and has come back a bit. There is still good demand for overdates and original properly graded Bust’s. R 4 and better Overton’s are also very popular and seem to have held their value.The common and later dates have taken the largest hit. Jason if you are interested in collecting these I recommend getting the book Bust Half Fever . As you know this is my favorite series of coin .

The best way to look at the price trend is to check out the Heritage database.

You can see when they peaked and dropped.

 

[physics-fan3.14]

Thanks for the info guys. Mark, I have Bust Half Fever, a good book. I am interested in the series, and have about a dozen (all EF). I am looking for more up-to-date market info than is in that book, though. I have a general sense of the market, but I really wanted to see how many people thought it was cooling off, or significantly off its highs.

 

To illustrate, one of the recent Bust Halves I purchased for $250, and the seller told me "at the peak of the market recently" he bought it for $600. Just wanted to put that in perspective for my own curiosity, and see if he is telling the truth, when that might have been, if others had experienced such a strong drop, etc.

[WoodenJefferson]

I actually quit looking at them in 2007 when the prices for F/VF went into orbit, so I do not know how the market is now, or has been in 3 years.

[Mark T]

2 plus years ago when I started to collect Busts they were probably 20 – 30 % higher. Example – Common later date Au 55 Busts were going for $ 450 and better – you can get them today for around $ 350 maybe less. Lucky for me I did not purchase many of my expensive Bust Half’s before the end of 2008.

Are you referring to the 1817 you just picked up ?? If I remember that is an XF 45 . A couple of years ago that coin would have cost you at least $400 . $ 600 seems a bit much unless it was an R 4 or better Overton.

My coins fortunately have held there value rather well .

2 Reasons :

1) Most of them were CAC certified after I purchased them . I was lucky and picked up some great coins at great prices.

2) On all but a few I did not pay a premium when I purchased them.

 

 

Over the last 2 years I have sold 7 Bust Half’s – I did not lose money on one coin.

Some of them were CAC coins that I no longer wanted . The main reason I did not lose money was because I did not pay a premium for the coins. If I get a coin I do not like I sell it right away. You can see the risk of losing value in a soft market by selling the coin quickly is limited.

 

[physics-fan3.14]

Yes, I was referring to the 1817. I will be posting my pictures of it later today in my original thread. I make a strong effort to only buy CBH's with great eye appeal, strong originality, good strike, and generally try to pay as little premium as possible. If a coin meets my criteria, however, I subscribe to the TomB philosophy and am willing to pay for it.I therefore would like to think that my halves have held their value or performed well, although I am not planning on selling any of them any time soon.

[MBA101]

The Frederick collection was insane when it comes to prices. But the other busts from that same sale were cheap. I got an 1811 AU53 PCGS CAC for $800. I also just snagged an 1810 PCGS 45 from somebody's PCGS registry set ATS for $300, and many of those coins went cheap. Even early dates have cooled in my opinion, back to prices from 3 years ago. The Overdates and rarities though remain strong.

 

Watch the auctions (without reserves) and see how things go.

[Mark T]

The Frederick collection was insane when it comes to prices. But the other busts from that same sale were cheap. I got an 1811 AU53 PCGS CAC for $800. I also just snagged an 1810 PCGS 45 from somebody's PCGS registry set ATS for $300, and many of those coins went cheap. Even early dates have cooled in my opinion, back to prices from 3 years ago. The Overdates and rarities though remain strong.

 

Watch the auctions (without reserves) and see how things go.

 

Insane might even be an understatement !!

You and I both anxiously awaited this auction only to be disappointed because the coins were bid through the roof. This auction was a case of hype taking over common sence.

 

[physics-fan3.14]

I've heard the Frederick collection was crazy, but wasn't really watching any of them. How did it compare to the Jules Reiver sale? That one also brought unusually high numbers. It seems like whenever a really large Bust collection from a noted collection goes up, it garners very high interest.

[Mark T]

The Reiver sale was not even close, and this was when the Bust Market was much stronger.

[MBA101]

I wish I was a NUT back when the Reiver sale went. Those prices were CHEAP!!!

[Mozin]

Remember, the Reiver Collection was graded by NGC, while the recent Frederick Collection was graded by PCGS. NGC graded Bust Half Dollars do not bring as much money as PCGS graded Bust Half Dollars. If you do not believe me, just check out Heritage Prices Realized.

[TomB]

I can't give you actual percentages or dollar values, but my impression of the market for CBHs is that the upper circulated grades (Ch EF-Ch AU) have been quite firm and strong whereas the lower end of the spectrum has had liquidity issues.

[MBA101]

I can't give you actual percentages or dollar values, but my impression of the market for CBHs is that the upper circulated grades (Ch EF-Ch AU) have been quite firm and strong whereas the lower end of the spectrum has had liquidity issues.

 

All the common, and semi-common material has softened. You can even find high end common material at decent prices. If a piece is less common (R4's and above, or overdates) then prices remain strong. But what appears to be a downturn may only be beginning, and there may be some further weakening in the markets to come.

[physics-fan3.14]

I bid a gorgeous 1828 PCGS EF-40 O-111 R4 on Ebay last night up to $350, and lost it for $355. That seems like a hearty price, although that is just one example.

[coinman1794]

In Novenmber 2008, the Bust half market collapsed by about 33%-50% off their soaring highs. MS61-63 halves were in the $1500-2500 range. Now they are going for $800-$1500. At the same time, XF40s have risen slightly from around $100 to a firm $140-$170, while AU50 has fallen to $250 from its high at around $325. AU55 was a firm $400, and AU58 was $800-1000; now they are $250-$300, and $550-600, respectively. R.4 and better varieties have remained strong, but not at 2008 levels. They are about 15-20% off what they once were.

 

[World Colonial]

In 1977 right after I started collecting the first time, my recollection is that the more common dates were listed in the Red Book for $35 in VF, $45 in XF and $450 in "uncirculated". (It was my favorite coin and I owned three of them in XF to AU.) But that was a big run up from what my 1972 Red Book lists which includes prices from the mid $60 range.

 

By current standards compared to other coins, $800 to $1500 is reasonable. But given what I expect with coin prices generally, I could easily see these coins falling to below the 1977 prices I listed. Even though $800 now is much less than $450 in 1977 adjusted for price changes, the more common coins have large availability in mint state according to the census. This price of $800 is already about the same as the $775 list price from the 1989 version and the bear market in coin values has (in my opinion) barely started..

 

(My historical data carries the implied assumption that these coins actually sold for those prices. I do not know if that is true or not.)

[Houston Investor]

I regularly track a number of Bust amd Seated Half Dollars on the Bay for my watch list in order to pick out ones to bid on for retail inventory. One that got away recently (did not bid on) was an 1856 ICG AU55 50c. It went for around $140; CDN Bid in AU 50 was 160 and CW Retail is 400. An NGC 1854 50c Arrows in MS62 went for $905 (CW Values $1500). Good deals can be had on these but it takes hard work, time, and patience. At shows I have noticed it can be tough getting retail on these bc many of them don't have any money so I may occasionally wholesale them to dealers for say $20 over cost. The dealers will try to qoote me sheet but I just laugh and say "My best price is $xxx so if you want the coin all I want is your money." They may pass at first and then come back and buy (after doing some research). Many of these dealers have a shop and can get good retail there. It takes customers who have money to really move this material.

 

In terms of Bust 50c, I am still looking for a nice 1812 to replace a VF30 I recently sold which only lasted a week in inventory, no luck as of yet.