The NGC star and MS Franklins: Part 3: 2010

[SkyMan]

In July 2006 I stumbled upon a 1949-S MS65*FBL Franklin at a small local show. I was a very happy camper as '49-S's are a tougher coin to find 1) with FBL and 2) with nice toning. I looked at the NGC census to find out how rare * Franklins were. I figured that 1958-D's would be the most common, with maybe 1957-D's and 1956's right up there. What really intrigued me was to see how rare these puppies were. Here's something I wrote on the TCCS forums at the time, (7/31/06)...

 

"I was at a local coin show this weekend and stumbled upon a 1949-S Frankie in NGC MS 65*FBL. It was a date/mintmark that I needed, so for a mixture of a 1947 Walker and some cash it was purchased. '49-S's are a tough coin to find with toning, so it is not a spectacular piece..., but the coin is pretty for the date/mintmark. Anyhow, I knew that * Frankies are few and far between, but, being bored on a saturday night, I checked out/compiled the NGC stats. There are a total of 65,360 MS and 13,194 MSFBL Frankies graded at NGC (in this case MS includes all the circulated grades too), a grand total of 78,554 Frankies. For all these tens of thousands of Frankies there are 134 MS* and 62 MS*FBL Frankies, a grand total of 196 * Frankies for the whole series. To put it another way, for every THOUSAND Frankies graded at NGC aproximately 2.5 will get a star and less than 0.8 will get a star FBL. It really brought home to me just how difficult it is to find a nicely toned Frankie, particularly with FBL."

 

In June 2008 I did an update on the difficulty of finding NGC * Franklins. Here is what I wrote then,"today I decided to see what has happened in the intervening ~ 2 years. Using todays (6/15/08) current census report there are now 72,872 non-fbl and 16,139 FBL Frankies graded, for a grand total of 89,011. Of these there are 173 non-fbl* and 77 FBL* Frankies, for a grand total of 250. The absolute percent has changed a bit, but is still EXCEEDINGLY small. To put it another way, during this time span there were 7,512 non-fbl Frankies graded with 39 getting a star... roughly 0.52% There were 2,945 FBL's graded with 15 getting a star, again roughly 0.51%. In essence for roughly every 200 Frankies graded 1 will get a star.

 

Oh, and while the 1958-D was the most common, it now numbers 49 total stars, e.g. ~20% of all starred Frankies, the other top five most common dates rather surprised me (except for the '58-P). In order after the '58-D (49) they were; '53-S (25), '52-S (16), '49-S (15) and '58 (13). Almost 2/3 of all stars come from just 7 date/mm's (e.g. 1/5 of the date/mm's)."

 

 

After Erwindoc's recent post about the star and Franklins I decided to update the statistics. As of 6/1/10 there are now 80,337 non-fbl and 19,927 FBL Frankies graded (and 16 PL Frankies), for a grand total of 100,240. Of these there are 206 non-fbl* and 98 FBL* Frankies, for a grand total of 304. During this time span there were 7,465 non-fbl Frankies graded with 33 getting a star... roughly 0.44% There were 3,788 FBL's graded with 21 getting a star, roughly 0.55%. In total, roughly 0.48% of graded Franklins in the last 2 years has gotten a star. In essence for roughly every 200 Frankies graded 1 will get a star.

 

As you can see, the last 2 years statistics are comparable to the previous 2 years for % of Franklins getting the star, but it has gotten even a little tougher. The '58-D is still BY FAR the most common, 73, roughly 1 in 4 of all stars. In order the other top 5 are '53-S (27), '52-S (19), '49-S (18) and '58 (14).

 

Of course no post about * Franklins would be complete without a picture of one, so here is the '49-S that got me started thinking about the difficulty of finding * Franklins.

 

[Dcoin]

I love the stats and your methodology (and the coin too)!

 

I think if more collectors would use such detailed historical (pricing/pops) data, it would make finding sleeper coins just a little easier to find. I bet your coin is worth multiples what you paid for it, even in a depressed Franklin market.

[dean1345]

Those are strong FBL's on your 1949-S!!

[erwindoc]

Thanks for the update. Guess I better try and get some of these before the market improves. Sounds like star Franklins are really tough.

[Denver Dave]

Great Info SkyMan...

 

I see the Lonely Frankie coming out of this slump looking very good. The field is wide open and the more you look the more interesting they get. If you like toning the '48 to '58 mint sets are the bomb, lots of material at a bargain. Plus they carry the other coins in the set with them, promoting those series as well...

 

Here's one of my favorite 48ers, not your standard mint set toning but more of a Envelope Toning...

 

 

 

 

 

[kryptonitecomics]

Posted ATS:

 

 

I would guestimate that over a 5 year period I submitted around 200 to 220 frankies, all toned......and I believe I have made between 10 and 15 star Frankies. I probably thought at least 50 of the frankies submitted would star but alas....their idea of eye appeal and mine are surely different

 

 

So it would seem a did a bit better than your average but these coins were all hand picked out of original double mint sets and all had pleaseing to exceptional color so I would expect my star return rate to be a bit higher then random submission the included untoned examples.

 

 

Good Post.....makes me want to send in some more frankies

[PCcoins]

I have seen a few 1958-d ngc stars that weren't "monster" toned IMO. I agree with Shane that ngc's standards for a star coin are different than mine. For example the last Franklin I saw with a star was a ms65FBL* where the reverse had some nice greens/reds/blues around the rim and the obverse had less rainbow toning around some of the rim too. This coin looked to have been mint set toned and nice but I felt it didn't deserve the covenant * designation.

 

I know that ngc seems to like a little color but no darker toning on the coin over a monster toned one sided Franklin with some darker toning on the over side.

[kryptonitecomics]

I have submitted frankies for Jon that were no brainer stars for me and he didn't get them so I never assume anything with NGC anymore...

[fishfinder]

Thanks for the info SkyMan. I like your '49 , a super strike. I would pick up more attractive frankies if could find 'em.

[Denver Dave]

Here's a turd in the punch bowl...

 

Will not more Frankies Plus then Star...?

 

More lax on the Bell Lines but heavy on the other technical end would produce this result...?

 

 

[SkyMan]

I certainly expect more +'s than *'s. I don't see why that would upset the punch bowl. They are two different entities.

[Denver Dave]

I was talk'n their Punch Bowl

 

 

[SkyMan]

Here's my favorite * 1958-D. I call it cotton candy because that's what the colors remind me of...

 

[kryptonitecomics]

That one is amazing in hand Sy...very vibrant colors

[PCcoins]

Hey Sy, Since you own 6 ngc star* frankies I'm sure you wouldn't mind selling me one

 

I really don't mind which one you choose, I'll PM you my mailing address

[physics-fan3.14]

Since the NGC + is going to take into account eye appeal, do y'all think the + will be as hard to get as the *? Great report Sy. I think you should send me a * as well - I don't own any, and it is going to be my birthday in a couple of weeks.