Would you buy a coin knowing it has gone up 600% in the last 4 years?

[chinook]

For example, I bought a very nice 90-CC MS-63 DMPL $ for about $900 from Teletrade in 2000. I sold this coin in the ANR auction in January for about 5x my cost. With the juice it was about 6x.

 

Legend has a similiar coin on their website. Actually I thought it was my coin until I closely compared pictures.

 

Anyway, if you knew that my coin traded for $900 just 4 years ago, would you have paid $5000 for it today?

 

 

[ER]

Would not.

[jtryka]

Probably not, but it depends on the circumstances. For Morgans the prices 5 years ago might have been extremely depressed after the crash of the late 80s/early 90s, which might justify such an increase.

[Tradedollarnut]

Sure - why not? Does it matter if you got a really good deal 4 years ago? If the coin is all there and the price now makes sense in the context of other coins around it, what it sold for 4 years ago is irrelevant.

[gmarguli]

I'd buy it only if I felt it was a good value now. It would make my decision a little more difficult.

[chinook]

I'd buy it only if I felt it was a good value now. It would make my decision a little more difficult.

 

Knowing that the GREYSHEET is only a guide and it lists the coin at $975 in 63 and $3500 in 64, would you feel it was a good value?

[truthteller]

Here's a more interesting scenario. Would I buy the same coin back at 400% higher level, 3 months later? I sold a very pretty commem for 3x sheet. The same coin was offered back to me at 7x sheet at a show three months later. Along the way, it was resubmitted several times but never bumped a grade, just bumped in price. I actually thought about buying it back, but passed on the coin.

 

 

TRUTH

[BillJones]

I guess it depends upon the item. If it is really scarce and you don't stand much of chance of owning another as a collectable, I'd say OK. If you are just buying it for speculation, I'd be careful.

 

Some dealers run up the prices on coins for their own purposes. After the promotion is over, they let the market languish. I think this was done on Proof coins from the 1936 to '42 era and on the "old" commemorative gold coins. If you are looking "investments" in those areas at the current price levels, I think you would be well served to move on.

 

With Morgan dollars the supply of most dates, except for the biggies like 1889-CC, 1893-S and 1895 are pretty high relative to total demand. Therefore if you don't like a piece now, one more to your likeing will more than likely show up later.

 

As an asside, I don't care for most MS-63 Morgans in DPL. The P-L surfaces show EVERY marks, and I have got a "thing" for excessive bag marks. I really don't like them. The coin that is shown at the start of this thread would not be for me. I'd sooner have a "normal" surface piece. That's just my taste.

[Trime-migration]

I am with tradedollarnut on this one.However, significant rise in perceived value of anything is cause to reflect on present volatility and future valuation.