Baltimore Show Review, CAC Inspection, the Boys of CRO & Laura of Legend

[TomB]

If nothing else, I would imagine that the title of this thread would at least generate some traffic.

 

This past week I had some time to pursue numismatic endeavors, which allowed me to spend significant cumulative time with each enterprise or entity listed above. My experience at the Baltimore show will come first, then those who abhor anything relating to CAC can simply skip the final paragraph or two. I had an early bird dealer badge for Baltimore and stayed throughout all of Thursday through early Friday afternoon. The show was slow and lightly attended during this time, but this is not too surprising given the current economic climate and the fact that the summer Baltimore show is easily the least well attended of all the Baltimore gatherings.

 

Dave and John, the Boys of CRO, allowed me to keep my numismatic carp behind their table and they also allowed easy and repeated access to my things, which meant that I was free to roam the floor unencumbered while their cumulative numismatic IQ was in jeopardy of falling simply from their proximity to my coins. As always, their inventory was quite nice and they were beyond reasonably patient with me while going through each coin that might be attractive to me. After that, I hit the bourse proper and noted that it was almost empty of folks in the aisles. Aside from this being the summer show during poor economic times, I can’t help but think that the relatively new $100 entrance fee for these hours might persuade some folks to arrive later when it is free to enter.

 

Pleasant conversations were easily had all over the floor and folks seemed quite happy to be at the show, which is in stark contrast to some other down periods in this hobby-industry and might be interpreted to be a good sign. I had one coin to sell and stopped by Laura’s table whereupon she proceeded to perform a very entertaining skit regarding dealers who are afraid to purchase any nice coins at the moment before she turned to Jose and simply said “Cut TomB a check for whatever he wants”. It was a nice interaction and two coins in their inventory that I thought were especially attractive in-hand included the 1857 PCGS MS67 Seated half-dime and a WA Seated half in PCGS MS66.

 

My search across the floor for material to buy was especially fruitful with the addition to my type set of a Classic half-cent in MS64RB as well as a Type I Buffalo nickel in PR66. Both coins are really very nice and I am certain I paid strong for them, but I expect to own them for quite a while, too. There was one coin, however, that I did not buy and that I have been mildly kicking myself about since I left the show. It was a piece that I already own for my type set and the particular coin that I now own would be in any virtual Bo20 that I might build. Nonetheless, the coin that I passed on was exceptionally attractive with unmitigated originality. This may be a piece that I search online for in the next few days and, if found, may make an attempt to purchase. Note that in the years that I have been in this hobby-industry, there have been precious few pieces that I kicked myself about later.

 

Even though there were very few folks in attendance, I was still able to meet up and exchange stories with many close friends who happen to be board members and this includes oreville, michael, cohodk/chinook, ColonialCoinUnion, CoinRaritiesOnline, wayneherndon, BigMoose, airplanenut, coinguy1/MarkFeld and no doubt others that I am currently forgetting. Additionally, a healthy mix of knowledgeable folks who do not frequent the boards were in attendance, too, which may also be a good sign for those of us willing and able to ride out the current environment.

 

There was less generic gold on the bourse than I had expected, but I do not know how well any gold was selling at the show. There was also far less choice material than I can recall seeing at most shows and I take this to mean that most of the better pieces are already placed and are not looking for new homes at these price levels. Whether or not these coins stay placed during a possible extended downturn is not for me to know at the moment, but they were not overly represented on the floor. One disturbing thing that I noticed was a number of what I would consider, in my opinion only, AT (or at least not original) coins in NGC and PCGS holders. There weren’t many. In fact I think I counted only four, but they were Barber/Seated/Reeded Edge coins that did not pass muster for me. This is likely a smaller number of coins of this nature than I typically see at a show, but it still bothered me quite a bit. Please note that I can’t prove any of these aren’t original, but my opinion was made up upon viewing them.

 

Lots of early dollars were to be had in PCGS and NGC holders, but I didn’t like the look of most of these coins, either. ANACS holdered coins appear to be a vanishing breed, especially coins in the white holders. In contrast, CAC stickers look to be taking root since not only were there the expected folks laden with CAC-stickered slabs, but there also were a sprinkling of CAC stickers in many other cases, too. I heard more than one dealer comment that they were getting killed up to that point in the show, but remember that I left by early afternoon on Friday so things may have changed substantially during Saturday. There was a recent thread about overvalued or overhyped coinage and the 1916 SLQ was listed as one piece. I stopped counting the certified examples of this date once I got to 14-pieces. However, if someone wants a truly exquisite, original circulated example of the date they should contact Jack Beymer since he has a PCGS EF40 that is terrific. There were also a plethora of certified (primarily PCGS) 1932-D WQs in MS63 through a single MS65 I noticed on the floor and some of them were even quite attractive. This is not a rare coin, but finding PCGS graded pieces in this grade range and will positive eye appeal is not always an easy thing to do on the bourse.

 

So-called dollars looked to have slowed quite a bit more than the rest of the field. One interesting piece I was able to examine was the Utopia bimetallic piece in an NGC MS64 holder. It was quite cool. Gobrecht dollars were much less visible on the floor than in earlier shows even though there were still perhaps five pieces throughout all dates and grade ranges. An incredibly neat piece on the floor was a reverse engraved 1864 Seated half that had an image of a wonderful dog atop a box. Truly very cool, but it was not related to anything else in my collection so it stayed with the dealer. From my conversations with several dealers, it appears that circulated Lincoln cents from the early years are not selling as well as many folks thought they would be given the centennial and the popularity of Lincolns. Quality Seated and Barber type was almost non-existent.

 

No doubt there are things that I forgot to write, but they may come back to me later. Some people might state that since the market is slow that they were just as well off not attending the show, but I believe that the social networking factor, the ability to offer coins live and the in-hand inspection of as many coins as one wishes to look at more than makes up for a slow market.

 

Prior to the show I was able to meet up with the Boys of CRO and picked up a very neat Seated half-dime for my type set. Since I already had the type represented, I decided to sell my previous piece and that was the coin sold to Laura (mentioned earlier). The Seated half-dime that I bought from CRO is below and makes the thread worthwhile since there is now an image of a coin in it.

 

 

Also prior to the show, I was allowed to go to CAC headquarters to meet up with JA and njcoincrank. I have known njcoincrank for many years so this was a social visit as well as an inspection of my coins. Both JA and njcoincrank were more than generous with their time and knowledge given my position within the hobby-industry and I stayed there for half the day. Several months prior to this meeting I wrote out my prediction of the CAC sticker status for each slabbed coin in my collection and sent these predictions to Mark Feld. At that time I had not known the rate for green stickers or the rate for gold stickers. If I had I might have made my predictions more conservative, but then again I might not have done so since I was attempting to be brutally honest with my coins. Also, since that time I have sold a few pieces as well as added a few others. JA and njcoincrank stated that the overall sticker rate is somewhat less than 40%, which I would interpret as very close to 40%. The gold sticker rate is approximately one coin in twelve hundred submitted (0.083%). Essentially, the 40% sticker rate is made up entirely of green stickers. The volume of coins that CAC inspects also surprised me since it was higher than I might have guessed and this would mean to me that there is more market penetration or acceptance of CAC then some might hope. JA mentioned that the early dollars (FH, DB and Gobrecht) had the lowest sticker rate of any niche within the field and that most of the coins that failed to garner a sticker weren't even close to obtaining the sticker. Additionally, I asked JA if there was a single evaluation standard for all coins or if there was one standard for NGC graded coins and another for PCGS graded coins. The answer is that there is a single standard (the CAC standard) used to evaluate all coins regardless of certification company. JA and njcoincrank mentioned that I could share this information with the boards if I chose and I believe this is an appropriate place to put this.

 

Edited to add the following paragraph for clarity-

The overall CAC sticker rate for all coins submitted to CAC is just under 40% with only one coin in twelve hundred (0.083%) receiving the gold sticker. However, my collection of 76-coins had a CAC sticker rate of 96.1% and a gold sticker rate of one coin in 15.2-coins (6.6%). I write this to let folks realize that if one attempts to know the niche that they are buying in and if one buys over time and without hurry that it may be possible to obtain relatively nice pieces. I received 68 green stickers and five gold stickers in my 76-coin submission.

 

[coinman1794]

Very interesting information! Thanks.

 

The quality of Early dollars in NGC and especially PCGS holders is disgraceful, and I'm not at all surprised they arent getting CACed. I was just talking about this earlier to a board member. I have seen PCGS XF45s that were dipped white, or obviously cleaned coins with dip staining in addition to heavy hairlines, murky, splotchy and ugly coins with an old cleaning, and on, and on. These coins arent getting downgraded or bodybagged for their problems at PCGS.

[WinstonWare]

Great report and stunning half dime (thumbs u

[stinkycheese1]

Great report Tom! I especially liked the information about CAC! And that half dime is killer!

[TomB]

Edited to add the following paragraph for clarity-

The overall CAC sticker rate for all coins submitted to CAC is just under 40% with only one coin in twelve hundred (0.083%) receiving the gold sticker. However, my collection of 76-coins had a CAC sticker rate of 96.1% and a gold sticker rate of one coin in 15.2-coins (6.6%). I write this to let folks realize that if one attempts to know the niche that they are buying in and if one buys over time and without hurry that it may be possible to obtain relatively nice pieces. I received 68 green stickers and five gold stickers in my 76-coin submission.

 

[thebeav]

Great report Tom.

Also great stats on your sticker-getting. That's cool !!

 

Paul

[MarkFeld]

Tom, thanks for another (not unexpectedly) excellent show report.

 

It's obvious from the way you collect and what you buy, that you're an extremely patient, discerning and knowledgeable collector. So my question to you is, what benefit, if any, do you personally derive from having your coins evaluated by CAC?

[EZ_E]

JA mentioned that the early dollars (FH, DB and Gobrecht) had the lowest sticker rate of any niche within the field

 

I certainly don't find this statement hard to believe. That's why I just hate that I had to pass on the most gorgeous circulated 1795 Dollar that I have ever seen recently. It was priced at $4400 which I just couldn't afford at the moment. Bummer.

 

And, I see that you've finally passed me on the the type set ranking. If you weren't 6'4" and a couple of thousand miles away then I think maybe, just maybe I'd take issue with that fact. But, wait a minute....... ..........Winstonware lives fairly close to you and he's a power lifter so maybe we can just work out a deal. So, if afterwards we don't hear from ya, Tom, in awhile then we'll just take it that you're in a recuperative cycle.

 

Great report and what a beautiful half dime! I like the date, too.

[123cents]

Gorgeous half-dime and great report.

[DaveG]

Tom,

 

Great Report!

 

Given what I've seen of your collection, I'd be interested in hearing about the three coins that didn't get a sticker - what they were and why they didn't sticker.

[RWB]

Fine report. Thanks!

 

PS: I was able to get a gold sticker on the cat, but it sure was tough to get it into the slab!

[braddick]

Excellent!

Worth reading twice.

[Schatzy]

Tom,

 

Great Report.....I plan to hit the next Baltimore show (if the wifey lets me)!!

 

The $100 entrance fee seems quite harse!! What time can you get in for free?

 

That is one killer half dime!!

[TomB]

The $100 early bird bourse badge gets you in a few hours early on Thursday and one hour early both Friday and Saturday as well as allowing you to stay one hour later each day. It may be thought of as a stiff price to pay for so few extra hours, but they may be the time required to pick off the right pieces before the remainder of the public can enter for free.

 

Victor, I had realized that I passed you with my set, but had not wanted to tell you. I thought I would sit back and wait until you realized you were eating my dust.

 

Mark, this is an excellent question. My desire to bring my coins to CAC was threefold-

 

1) I wanted to see how my coins stacked up against their respective CAC standards.

 

2) I wanted to see how the CAC standards stacked up against my personal standards.

 

3) I wanted the CAC sticker on the coins as an added layer of insurance for my wife and little girls in the event that something happens to me and they decide to liquidate the collection.

[Mozin]

Thanks for the long and enjoyable report.

 

What I wonder, is how do the numbers CAC'd for NGC submitted compare with the numbers submitted for PCGS.

[toyonakataro]

Nice half dime, TomB

Maybe I was an underbidder on that coin when it was auctioned by Heritage a few months ago.

[MarkFeld]

The $100 early bird bourse badge gets you in a few hours early on Thursday and one hour early both Friday and Saturday as well as allowing you to stay one hour later each day. It may be thought of as a stiff price to pay for so few extra hours, but they may be the time required to pick off the right pieces before the remainder of the public can enter for free.

 

Victor, I had realized that I passed you with my set, but had not wanted to tell you. I thought I would sit back and wait until you realized you were eating my dust.

 

Mark, this is an excellent question. My desire to bring my coins to CAC was threefold-

 

1) I wanted to see how my coins stacked up against their respective CAC standards.

 

2) I wanted to see how the CAC standards stacked up against my personal standards.

 

3) I wanted the CAC sticker on the coins as an added layer of insurance for my wife and little girls in the event that something happens to me and they decide to liquidate the collection.

Thanks Tom.

[MikeKing]

great report Tom

nice coin

 

[MikeInFL]

Great report Tom. It appears as though the CAC mission (good-for-the-grade coins) was your mission for a long time -- and you've done well for yourself. Congrats...Mike

[SkyMan]

First off, Tom, thank you very much for the show report. (thumbs u

 

Second, that's a gorgeous half dime! Excellent pickup!

 

Third, FWIW, when I tried to cross a CAC'ed old fattie NGC slabbed MS65 half dime to PCGS in the last year it DNC. IMO it was a no brainer 65... you know my feelings about buy the coin not the slab so it was rather surprising. One just never knows with the whole slabbing game. Given that, I'm not so sure how much actual worth your CAC stickering is worth.

 

So what was the coin that got away?

[DC Dawg]

Thanks, Tom. This is the first time I've heard any statistics about what CAC is allegedly finding. I wish they would publish more!

 

Scott

[TomB]

I have one anecdotal observation about the CAC sticker process with respect to possible value of a coin and another anecdotal observation with respect to liquidity.

 

The first observation pertains to my 1892 Barber half in a PCGS OGH and graded MS66. This coin had been brought to Baltimore previously as part of show-and-tell and several folks who deal in coins of this type asked what I paid for the piece. I had paid approximately $6k for it, which is quite a bit higher than the approximately $4k that an overgraded, no eye appeal dog that has no business in a PCGS MS66 holder yet somehow finds itself in a PCGS MS66 holder would fetch. Folks thought this was strong, yet fair. Once the coin received a CAC gold sticker and was shown to those same folks, or others in the niche, the response was that this coin was worth $12k-$14k (dealer 1) and $15k (dealer 2). Therefore, I think the presence of the gold CAC sticker on this coin made dealers value it more in line with an MS67.

 

The other observation is in relation to liquidity and also happened at the last Baltimore show. I had offered a very nice type coin to two dealers who are high profile, but neither wanted the coin near Greysheet. I then brought the coin to Legend (a high profile CAC backer) and offered the coin to them. It was purchased immediately once they saw the CAC sticker and I received my price.

 

By the way, the CAC sticker process was done for free.

[rrantique]

I have one anecdotal observation about the CAC sticker process with respect to possible value of a coin and another anecdotal observation with respect to liquidity.

 

The first observation pertains to my 1892 Barber half in a PCGS OGH and graded MS66. This coin had been brought to Baltimore previously as part of show-and-tell and several folks who deal in coins of this type asked what I paid for the piece. I had paid approximately $6k for it, which is quite a bit higher than the approximately $4k that an overgraded, no eye appeal dog that has no business in a PCGS MS66 holder yet somehow finds itself in a PCGS MS66 holder would fetch. Folks thought this was strong, yet fair. Once the coin received a CAC gold sticker and was shown to those same folks, or others in the niche, the response was that this coin was worth $12k-$14k (dealer 1) and $15k (dealer 2). Therefore, I think the presence of the gold CAC sticker on this coin made dealers value it more in line with an MS67.

 

The other observation is in relation to liquidity and also happened at the last Baltimore show. I had offered a very nice type coin to two dealers who are high profile, but neither wanted the coin near Greysheet. I then brought the coin to Legend (a high profile CAC backer) and offered the coin to them. It was purchased immediately once they saw the CAC sticker and I received my price.

 

By the way, the CAC sticker process was done for free.

 

 

It's great when a well thought out plan comes together