What to make of the large disparity in auction prices of the identical coin?

[MarkFeld]

May 27, 2008: $7302

 

Won by me yesterday at considerably below my maximum bid: $4428

 

The price realized in the first of the above two sales was quite a bit higher than I would have guessed, but the second one, just four months later, was surprisingly low.

[physics-fan3.14]

I don't find it surprising at all. It seems to me that coin prices are falling rapidly, and the explanation is simple - the economy. If people can't afford to fill up their gas tanks, are they really going to be buying hundred year old half dollars? While the example you provide is considerably more high end than what I look at, there is a certain pervasive pessimism that is taking hold of the country. I was reading an article the other day about high end luxury goods, and how retailers are suffering because of the economy (I'm talking about places like Neiman Marcus and the really high end stuff). So, while this might just be one part of the equation regarding the coin in question, I see a general softening of the coin market because of the weak economy.

[World Colonial]

I do not follow coin prices (especially US coin prices0 closely like others on this board, but I will agree with your comment that if coin prices are not being impacted, they are likely to be about the only asset that has not been. Whether now or later, the contracting liquidity (aka, credit) which is hitting the economy will eventually hit coins prices as well.

 

As for retailers like Neiman Marcus, I would not even consider buying anything there but though they are high end, there are probably a substantial number of better off middle class households who have been buying at places like that during the housing bubble. If so, then this company and others are not the exclusive places they have tradinionally been just like BMW and Mercedes which I would describe as large scale producers now.

[cpm9ball]

It's interesting to note that the auction history listed on the Heritage site shows a drop in the price:

 

4/29/06 - $5462.50

8/14/06 - $5175.00 (Lot 3446)

8/14/06 - $4600.00 (Lot 3447)

12/10/06 - $4456.25

 

It's possible that two bidders in the May 27 auction got into a bidding war because both really wanted it. I've seen this happen before, and after the dust had settled, the prices in later auctions had a tendency to drop quite a bit.

 

The question I have is, "Do you think it should have increased in value by $2800+ in a span of less than 18 months?"

 

Chris

[Mark T]

I have also noticed prices dropping . A month ago I picked up a PCGS 1911 MS 63 $ 5 Indian for $ 1600 ( before buying power) I could have picked one up from Bowers Saturday for $ 1400.

 

Check this one out:

 

I had a max bid in at $ 1600 someone outbid me by $ 25 .

 

http://www.bowersandmerena.com/auctions/lot_detail.aspx?auctionno=13120&sessionno=1&catno=40&searchstring=&lotno=328

 

Mark – you literally stole that coin for the price you paid. Did you pick up any other coins from the Bowers Auction ?

 

I also noticed a lot of coins last night did not hit reserve and went unsold.

 

I had a gig last night so I was unable to bid live.

 

 

 

 

[Coindude]

Same coin too it appears. Not sure which pictures I like better. I definitely like your prices better. Pop 9/2. Seems to be a pretty low price for that... at least to me. Nice coin, and try not to complain too much. Maybe the economy is hurting the coin buyer?

[MarkFeld]

Same coin too it appears. Not sure which pictures I like better. I definitely like your prices better. Pop 9/2. Seems to be a pretty low price for that... at least to me. Nice coin, and try not to complain too much. Maybe the economy is hurting the coin buyer?

It is the identical coin - sorry if I didn't make that clear.

 

I don't find it surprising at all. It seems to me that coin prices are falling rapidly, and the explanation is simple - the economy

I don' t buy that as an (or THE) explanation for such a large price difference in such a short period of time for the identical coin. Either the first sale was a distortion on the high side, the second sale was on the low side, or there was a combination of the two. I'm shocked that whoever bought it for $7000 plus (or, if he sold it and another person consigned it) let it go for such a low price, poor economy or not.

 

It's possible that two bidders in the May 27 auction got into a bidding war because both really wanted it. I've seen this happen before, and after the dust had settled, the prices in later auctions had a tendency to drop quite a bit.

That's the most likely explanation, as far as I'm concerned.

 

A month ago I picked up a PCGS 1911 MS 63 $ 5 Indian for $ 1600 ( before buying power) I could have picked one up from Bowers Saturday for $ 1400

That's much more easily understandable to me, since you're talking about a generic gold type coin that can be strongly influenced by movements in the precious metals market. But, assuming you don't know how high the winning bidder(s) would have gone, you can't be sure you would have won one for $1400.

 

Mark – you literally stole that coin for the price you paid. Did you pick up any other coins from the Bowers Auction ?

I think it was a good deal, but I don't necessarily think I stole it. Yes, I bought other coins in the sale, but they were MUCH closer to my maximum bids.

[jgrinz]

Mark -

 

Is this coin still in the old BRICK NGC holder Do you think it to better than the grade listed on the coin. I have found about 90% of the coins that I had which were in the older holders with the lower serial nubers crossed to a grade higher than it originally was ...

 

 

[TomB]

The Heritage sale of the Silbermunzen coins had some outstanding specimens and created a bit of auction fever, in my opinion, which might have helped other coins from the collection. The subsequent B&M sale did not mention this provenance and even if it did, the other coins from Silbermunzen were not in play in this sale.

[PCcoins]

Yes, It seems to be slowing down quite a bit. The economy is key to the price changes, I haven't been buying as much lately.

[Mark T]

Ok maybe you did not quite steal that coin but you picked it up for a fantastic price.

I agree the drop in gold price has influenced the prices of those Half Eagles somewhat. I know Grey sheet prices have dropped over the last few months.It is more of a perception issue on gold rather then the change of value caused by a drop in gold. Gold drops $ 300 , that is $ 75 change in the gold value on a Half Eagle.Totally insignificant for a coin valued at $ 2000. I know you understand what I am trying to get across. Let me take you back 3 months ago. MS 63 common date Half Eagle’s were going for $ 1700 - $ 1900. You are correct that I have no idea what how high the winner of that 1911 was willing to spend, my point is that there seems to be a lack of buying interest. This is most likely caused by our wonderful economy and maybe because the market may be getting flooded with people trying to sell their coins. I just came back into the hobby 8 months ago. I know the coin market has been very hot for quite a while

What are your thoughts on this Mark , do you see a potential down turn ??

 

[Mark T]

Mark ,

 

I am being nosey but would you mind sharing what other coins you purchased.

I only picked up a 1913 MS 62 Half Eagle, I was out bid on everything else because I was not around to bid live. I had a bids out on 3 Half Eagles: 1909 MS63 , 1916-S MS 61 , and the 1913 MS 62. I got the 1913 cheap because I think the 2 medium size marks on the reverse of that coin turned people away from it. The rest of the coin looked nice and those marks don’t really bother me. Many times the pictures make the imperfections look worse then they really are. Anyway for $ 667 I am not to concerned and as Bowers said those marks probably gave it the MS 62 grade from a 63.

 

 

M

 

[MarkFeld]

Mark -

 

Is this coin still in the old BRICK NGC holder Do you think it to better than the grade listed on the coin. I have found about 90% of the coins that I had which were in the older holders with the lower serial nubers crossed to a grade higher than it originally was ...

 

Mike, yes, it's still in the older holder, as best I recall. I thought the coin was accurately (not under) graded.

 

Mark ,

 

I am being nosey but would you mind sharing what other coins you purchased.

Mark, I don't mind sharing that, but don't want to spam the forum, so will send you a PM shortly.

[World Colonial]

Why exactly is that price low? The $7000 price looks more like an aberation from the others.

 

This is a conditional rarity (with only two in this census better) and in tough or tougher economic times, it is entirely possible or likely in my opinion that at least some collectors will settle for a coin a point or two lower for a lot less money. I cannot speak for this issue specifically but If we are entering a weak or weaker market generally, I would expect all conditional rarities to be vulnerable to the substitution factor.

 

And one of the reasons this can happen (though we cannot know in this instance) is that the seller may not have much of a choice because they need the money. There must certainly be a decent number of marginally financial coin collectors or "investors" just as there are for any other asset class.

[just-john]

think the second auction had a lower price because in that auction there were more Barber

Half's and that coin came up after a few ms66? So guess what I'M trying to say is that it didn't stand out the same as in the first auction and before there were 7 or 8 now there are 9 with 2 higher chances are that 9th coin was a resubmit .Really though you can't say why one coin sold for this amount one day and another price on a different day.Different people different location different time of the year markets up markets down gold's 1000 per oz golds 781 oz ? It's worth what someone pays at that time nothing else

[Mozin]

Thanks for sharing.

 

I don't see the price of my coin interests dropping, far from it.

[World Colonial]

Definitely not mine either.

[michael]

could be many things or a combo thereof

 

auction hype and fever

 

market slowdown

 

two nutty bidders

 

someone who thought it would cross pcgs and it did not

 

someone who is fickle for whatever reason and decided to the sell the coin after they bought it and consigned it to a lesser auction venue in a less than vibrant market as back in may and also left it with no reserve to maybe get a little of the juice and possibly some missed it

 

etc. etc.

 

 

[Tradedollarnut]

What's the coin worth in a PCGS MS66 holder? I'd wager a heck of a lot more.

 

Therefore, the answer to your question is simple: Silbermunzen coins hadn't been tried for crossover. After the sale, it was undoubtably tried for crossover many times and obviously failed. Therefore, it's worth less because it's known it won't cross and the pool of prospective top dollar buyers is less.

[gmarguli]

What's the coin worth in a PCGS MS66 holder? I'd wager a heck of a lot more.

 

Therefore, the answer to your question is simple: Silbermunzen coins hadn't been tried for crossover. After the sale, it was undoubtably tried for crossover many times and obviously failed. Therefore, it's worth less because it's known it won't cross and the pool of prospective top dollar buyers is less.

 

PCGS: We don't just grade coins, we brainwash you!™

 

Also need to add, since Mark said "I thought the coin was accurately (not under) graded.", it appears that these prospective top dollar buyers can't tell an undergrade from an accurate grade. Too bad it didn't have a sticker to tell them how nice the coin was.

[BankNote1]

"Boldly struck despite minor blending on the fletchings" I read this on the Evil Empire's discription of this coin. What the heck is a fletching???

[prudden]

"Boldly struck despite minor blending on the fletchings" I read this on the Evil Empire's discription of this coin. What the heck is a fletching???

 

Fletching is the feathers on the arrows.

[IGWT]

By coincidence, all of the potential bidders work[ed] for Lehman Bros., Merrill Lynch, AIG, or Bear Stearns. Bad luck for the consignor; good luck for Mr. Feld.