2008 W Reverse of 07 might be only Artistic.

[CHABSENTIA]

On page 14 of the May 26,2008 issue of Coin World ther is an article that states that many readers have stated that as late as the last weekof April they had been ordering and receiving the "error" variety for $25.95 plus shipping. Also that the U.S.Mint has failed to respond to Coin World as to their questions about why the U.S. Mint will not respond to questions about why the U.S. Mint continues to use the image of the 'error" coin on its website.Coin World then asks readers if the U.S.Mint is selling the "error' variety or is it using the image to sell the coin in hopes that people will buy it hoping to get the "error" variety?

 

Furthermore Coin World states in the article that " A new lettering style was selected for all versions of the 2008 American Silver Eagle Coins and Mint Officials say. in order to create better metal flow in the striking process". Coin World further states in the article that the Mint considers the changes to be " Artisitc". and notes that they were primarily a factor of moving from hand engraving to digital engraving.The Normal ,new "u" for the 2008 issues sports the downstroke or spur in the font that the Mint has selected for use.Based on Die life the Mint states that they estimated 47,000 of the 2008 Coins had been produced with the 2007 reverse and revealed that 15 reverse dies from 2007 had been used to strike this years coins.

 

This should set to rest the reporting that only 12,000 of them had been produced.

 

I would worry about the other part of the article for now if I had purchased thiis error coin for inflated prices. I would think that if the U.S.Mint states that the 2008 reverse of 2007 are merely "artistic" and that 2007 reverse dies were deliberately used in the change over that they inflated prices would lose a good deal of their inflated value.

 

What do others think about it?

[Revenant]

I think you're assuming that the US mint took no action to prevent any of the 47,000 "errors" from escaping the mint. If they found and melted 35,000, then you'd only expect 12000 left. But from what I hear, NGC alone has already graded over 9,000 which would make me doubtful of the 12000 number, especially considering how many are apparently still floating around raw.

 

 

[bsshog40]

By the sounds of this article, it doesn't sound like the mint is too worried about this issue anyway. It may be a "Hot" variety right now, but I have a feeling that the numbers are gonna rise and the value will start dropping when people start realizing that these are not going to be a rare thing. That's when I'll jump on the bandwagon for one.

[ant]

(thumbs u

[JuneandWard]

Thanks CHABSENTIA, it seems to be a more complete answer to my question yesterday. I imagine I will be next to Bobby (bsshog40) getting ready to jump on that bandwagon.

 

Ward

 

[CHABSENTIA]

I just got to the " Letters to the editors " and one reader said that he ordered 5 of the 2008 W on the 1st of Ma y and had received them and all five were the reverse of 07. Another said he ordered one toward the last week in April and received the 2008 reverse of 07. There were two more readers that reported that they also received the reverse of 07 and ordered the 2008W when Coin World released its existence two weeks ago.

[CHABSENTIA]

I'm not assuming anything. Coin World reported two weeks ago that the U.S. Mint estimated 47,000 which was the equivalent of three production shifts.

 

In the May 26,2008 Issue which I received yesterday they are questioning the fact that the U.S. Mint is using the image of the 2007 reverse for selling the 2008W and will not respond to questions as to whether they are still shipping the 2008 w reverse of 2007 or just using the image to promore Sales.

 

The U.S. Mint did repeat the estimate of 47,000 but also made the comment about the "artistic" point.

 

My question was " What happens if the Mint says it was a deliberate act in the transfer to a more "artistic" design and not an error.Doesn't it then just become a variety?

 

There are several readers in the "Letters to the Editor" column in that Coin World that state that they received the reverse of 07 and ordered as late as May 1st . I havent checked the image for the 2008 w on the U.S.Mint website lately but according to Coin world they were running the image with the reverse of 07 as late as May so it hardly looks like they were 'trying to stop it".

[World Colonial]

12,000 or 47,000, whichever it is both are still relatively large numbers for a coin that has a survival rate of 100% or just under 100% and all of them in pristine condition.

[Oldtrader3]

Chabsentia, thanks for the good article. It seems that the Mint is using their historically greased, "disinformation" press, propaganda-machine again. This can mean that they did or didn't make 47,000 in "mint speak", and they did (or didn't) run (1) shift, (3) shifts, (30) shifts, or (300) shifts with these dies, who knows. I quess that the final tally from the TPG's will be the number behind "the third door".

 

I bought one Early Release, MS69 slab before the hype became too inflated. I will just keep it for posterity.

[wighty]

I'm not sure how this issue will end, but even though the Mint might wish to consider it "artistic" there are two grading entities that are grading the 07 rev coins separate from the 08 reverses. This suggests to me that these "limited production errors" should grow in value.

 

To gain a better perspective on this issue, I've been trying to keep track of the 2008W SAE production & grading totals. To this end, I offer the following (through 5/19/08):

 

US Mint 2008W SAE production: 295,059

2008W SAE graded by NGC & PCGS: 107, 069

2008W SAE 07 rev graded by NGC & PCGS: 11,547 (3.9%)

2008W SAE 07 rev graded by NGC & PCGS as ER /FS: 8,189 (2.8%)

 

 

 

[cpm9ball]

"Letters to the Editor" in the latest issue of Coin World contains three posts about Mint customers receiving the '07 Reverse in their orders as recent as three or four weeks ago. Out of curiosity, I ordered ten more 2008 SAE's to see if they still have any left in their inventory. What the heck! It's only money!

 

Chris

[CHABSENTIA]

You are only looking at the ones that have been graded.You list a production for all 2008 W as 295,000. According to the U.S. Mint there are 47,000 of the 2008 W reverse of 07. This means that the reverse of 07 is about 15% of total production and 15% of total production is a large number at this point.

 

How does anybody justify paying these prices for a coin that is 15% of production.?I would think that with such a large number that it would be considered a variety rather than an error.The Mint also referring to it as "artisitc" doesn't help it either.

 

I don't know about now but even worse is the fact that the Mint was using the image of the reverse of 2007 on its website and sending it as late as the first week of May to people that ordered the 2008W.

[wighty]

You are only looking at the ones that have been graded.You list a production for all 2008 W as 295,000. According to the U.S. Mint there are 47,000 of the 2008 W reverse of 07. This means that the reverse of 07 is about 15% of total production and 15% of total production is a large number at this point.

True, but I was only trying to give a little perspective on the current numbers.

 

If the Mint produces what it has historically minted for "W" SAE (nominal avg of 695K over the past 7 years), that 15% drops to ~6.7%. Then there is the question of actually how many 07 rev coins really got into the public's hand's? We have the Mint's "estimate", and that's all there is. Maybe 47k is a good number, but maybe is isn't. Certainly, time will tell.

 

From the PCGS & NGC forum topics, it appears that the supply is drying-up, and speculation seems to be hanging on... eBay auctions for MS69s are hovering in the $300-330 range with a somewhat downward trend. Personally, I think it's too soon to tell where this story will end.

 

I have 2 of the error coins - one NGC MS69 & one raw ( cost $218 & $280). I might win or I might loose, but at least I've played the game...

[Oldtrader3]

Chabsentia, the 15% number will not hold unless the mint continues to produce rev. of '07 coins. You projection of 15% is erroneous. This increase of '07 reverses will not have any additional mintage, by the mint's own admission, therefore the number of newly slabbed '07 reverse variety coins will diminish as '08 rev. coins continue to be minted. The 15% only applies to some SAE coins minted by the first week of May.

 

The Mint was closed for flood damage through much of the period until May 1st. Rev of '07 coins shipped after May 1st were catchup shipments due to closure. The final tally will not be 15% of all SAE's graded by year end of mint production. It will be some percentage of 47,000 slabbed not 750,000/5,000,000 or whatever 2008 number mintage is final.

[C Jay Wilson-migration]

Did anyone also notice the change in the packaging, The 2008 rev 07's came in a smaller box with the UPC tag on the top lid. The 2008 standards come in a larger box with the UPC tag on the bottom of the box. I compaired the 2008 rev 07's box with the box from my 2007's and they are identical except for the product code. It is my guess, and it's only a guess, is that the mint started out in 2007 mode, only checking the coin date and UPC, since that is all that had changed in previous years. Has the mint released which shifts made the error, and on which day?

[Conder101]

As to the Mint using the image of the error coin in their advertising, they aren't. They are using the same artwork they used last year, they just changed the date. The "error" coin shown in the current ad is actually a "variaty" that doesn't exist. They changed the hubs on BOTH sides of the 2008 W SAE, but the ad shows a 2008 W with OBV and rev hub designs of 2007. Now as far as I know nobody has reported a 2008 W with a 2007 obv hub design.

[CHABSENTIA]

I realize that the number will change. My comment was on the Numbers given in the example. If you are going to base a projection on the existing figures than you need to take all of the figures and not what maked it look good for a certain scenario. When the production doubles to 590,000 and if the 47,000 stays the same then it will be different percentage.

 

 

My point was that there is nothing absolute at this point. If somebody paid $35.00 from the Mint and received one or even if they paid $60.00 then they are in good shape at this point. If they are paying the present prices of $250.00 to $300.00 that I see on Ebay then it could be a gamble. Even if the price should go up then their chances of getting more money is decreased at the higher values.

 

Look at this hyped up missing edge lettering errors that were once over $400.00 Where are they now?

 

Meanwhile the U.S. Mint seems to be less than open and possibly even making remarks that confuse the issue.

[Keleum]

Just a tangent, because I can...

 

To me this is what collecting "moderns" is about, will it or won't it? You can make guesses, some more educated than others. You might have got it from the mint for $25 or bought it on eBay for $367.99, but either way you bet we'll be looking for it in next years Red Book.

 

Not that my 1876 properly or improperly cleaned, but cleaned none-the-less half-dollar, is any less collectible. There's no mystery here, just history. I could care less what this years Red Book says about it.

 

 

[wighty]

My comment was on the Numbers given in the example. If you are going to base a projection on the existing figures than you need to take all of the figures and not what maked it look good for a certain scenario. When the production doubles to 590,000 and if the 47,000 stays the same then it will be different percentage.

Absolutely correct, and that is the point I was trying to convey. My figures were those available through 5/19/08 (a condition I believe I noted). I was not trying to project any figures in that post. I appologize if I misled anyone...

 

However, I did offer some speculation in the second post based on historical SAE "W" mintages averaged over a 7 year period.

[wighty]

For the benefit of everyone, a Collectors forum member ( jessewvu) posted these eBay sales charts on Tuesday May 20, 2008 7:02 PM related to the past 2 weeks of 08 SAE W Rev 07 sales. Some may find them enlightening....

[Oldtrader3]

Well, for any speculators buying raw from the Mint, it's over for packaged shipments after May 4th, 2008, no more sales of '08 rev of '07 SAE's. So save your money, they are most certainly gone, unless the Mint is holding out. Eventually, the Mint will tell us how many rev of '07 coins they sold, or like many past varieties, they never will publish a correct figure, because they probably don't know. Between closures for floods, backorder catchup and general government bureau, employee confusion about die changes and shifts, they actually may not know. The Mint mostly has not had accurate counts of sold mintages in the past on many varieties.

 

We collectors are left with counts of NGC, Early Releases and submissions, plus later slabbed counts from TPG's that missed the boat (no names implied) which probably will cover a majority of the coins issued, eventually.

[CHABSENTIA]

Doesn't really make any difference. I would not spend that much Money on this particular coin. If a person gets enjoyment out of spending $350.00 for it then it is an individual decision. If the Person is trying to make a profit and it goes back down to $99.00 Then take the repsonsibilty for the decision.

 

If the coin goes to $400.00 and stays there then be happy that you paid $367.00 for it.If you paid $65.00 for it and it goes to $400.00 then you are better off.The more you pay then the less you will make as it will level out some place if it doesn't drop.

 

It is a personal decision and people that pay these prices don't need to whine if it doesn't work out.If it stays at a number such as $367.00 then I am not going to be sorry that I didn't buy one at $175.00. I bought the 20th Anniversary S.A.E. set direcrtly from the U.S. Mint for $109.00 in 2006. I sent the Reverse Proof in and it came back a PF70.I would have been happy with a PF69 which is still worth twice what I paid for all three coins in the set.

[CHABSENTIA]

Doesn't make any difference. I will not pay that much Money for them and you can't base Future prices on the last two weeks with 100% Certainity.

 

 

I remember the Missing edge lettering error on the First Presidential. They were over $400.00 at first. Where are they now?

 

If somebody gets enjoyment out of this particular coin and is willing to pay $400.00 for it then it is a personal decision.Just don't cry if they go the way of the missing edge lettering errors etc.