Gold posts biggest drop in six years!

[Leothelion]

Gold posts biggest drop in six years.

 

And someone made these silly claims!

 

Leo

[Leothelion]

The ole proverbial question is coming to mind, should I sell my gold and platinum?

I'm not really sitting on a gold mine here, , But to test the waters, I'm considering on selling 3-1 ounce American Eagles; 1999, 2000 and 2002, 1-quarter ounce 1997 American Eagle and 1999 1-10th ounce of Platinum, ALL with a total value of $1267.

So here we go! Do I hear $1300, $1300 anyone? $1300? $1275? How about $1275?$1250?..$1250?

 

Leo

[gmarguli]

Anyone who mentions spot prices and make ANY comparison to rare gold coin value is a clueless insufficiently_thoughtful_person who should be ignored or a used car salesman who should be ignored.

 

Gold move up $20 last week and MS67 Saints are hot sellers...

[Count_Erfit]

I'm still holding several hundred oz and am not worried as long as the median household retirement acct (as of today's paper) is $24,000 and the median household debt is $39,000.

 

I ....always..........will keep a portion of my holdings in gold. UNTIL discipline is put in the currency.

 

And I do not believe ANY politician NOR the "jobs" surprise Friday that started the selloff.

 

The big 3 automakers are still planning over 50,000 layoffs and GM's pension deficit is THREE TIMES the value of ALL of its stock.

 

Gold fluctuates. So do bonds, stocks, real estate and rare coins. But only GOLD has been money for as long as there have been civilized nations trading goods.

 

It will continue to be so.

 

Silver, at present levels, adjusted for inflation, is nearly FREE.

 

Rare coins and precious metals are 2 different animals and do NOT constitute equals. They do, however, affect each other to a small degree.

 

At the coin show this weekend I bought yet another cc gold coin. Didn't even THINK of the gold price.........well.........somewhat..........and still remembered that cc gold is still .........VERY.......... little above the bullion price.

 

Gettin hard to find. Anyone worried about gold with some 1891cc tens, pls adv if you want to sell before gold is 3 bucks an oz.

 

[Higashiyama]

"I'm still holding several hundred oz and am not worried as long as the median household retirement acct (as of today's paper) is $24,000 and the median household debt is $39,000. "

 

It is quite likely that a debt problem is building at all of Federal, state, and individual levels. It is nonetheless important to appreciate that this does not necessarily bode well for gold. It could lead lead to severe recession, deflation, and ultimately declines in the price of gold. I agree there are serious problems to be faced. I don't think the result is at all clear.

 

Regarding the price of silver --- the low price follows from the fact that silver was essentially demonitized after 1964, while gold retained a quasi-monetary value.

Unless silver is remonetized, there is not a lot of reason to view the current commodity value as unreasonable.

 

 

 

 

[jtryka]

Regarding the price of silver --- the low price follows from the fact that silver was essentially demonitized after 1964, while gold retained a quasi-monetary value.

Unless silver is remonetized, there is not a lot of reason to view the current commodity value as unreasonable.

 

Have you considered the fact that we have been running significant supply deficits in silver over the last 25 years? From 1990-2002 alone, the total deficit was 1,672,000,000 ounces (yes, that is 1.6 BILLION with a B ounces). This deficit is basically calculated as total demand less mine supply, secondary supply (recycling by industrial users) and other supply (consumers melting coins and silverware). In 1997, the COMEX had 250 million ounces in inventory, today there is about 100 million. The US Mint ran out of silver last year, and had to buy it on the open market for the first time since the Pittman Act, as all the accumulated silver from our history was exhausted. There is no incentive to put new mines in production, or invest in any exploration with the price so low, so no new supply will be coming on line soon. And unlike gold, silver can be consumed when used, so it's not like gold which basically changes hands but still remains above the ground. So ask yourself, for any other commodity with similar supply/demand characteristics, would the price remain at pretty much where it was in 1970??? In fact, adjusted for inflation, the $5/oz. price today is the equivalent of $0.84 in 1964, the last year we had coins made of silver. I am not a big proponent of silver or gold bullion as investments, but to me the current price of silver is too low to comprehend.

[Count_Erfit]

Deflation does not automatically dictate LOWER gold prices.

 

Especially if the deflation is from overcapacity in manufacturing and the potential for recovery does not exist in the deflating country because they no longer have any manufacturing base for a recovery.

 

Nor to acquire..........TAXES...........to fund that country. In that case, the country COLLAPSES from debt and inability to recover.

 

Gold shines in ANY collapse.

 

Not that it is certain, but the indications are that it is FAR more likely than the US digging out of the ever deepening hole it is making.

 

Ya pays yer money an ya takes yer chances.

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

NY Gold is back up to $372.00 (at noon today).

[gmarguli]

Have you considered the fact that we have been running significant supply deficits in silver over the last 25 years? From 1990-2002 alone, the total deficit was 1,672,000,000 ounces (yes, that is 1.6 BILLION with a B ounces). This deficit is basically calculated as total demand less mine supply, secondary supply (recycling by industrial users) and other supply (consumers melting coins and silverware). In 1997, the COMEX had 250 million ounces in inventory, today there is about 100 million. The US Mint ran out of silver last year, and had to buy it on the open market for the first time since the Pittman Act, as all the accumulated silver from our history was exhausted. There is no incentive to put new mines in production, or invest in any exploration with the price so low, so no new supply will be coming on line soon. And unlike gold, silver can be consumed when used, so it's not like gold which basically changes hands but still remains above the ground. So ask yourself, for any other commodity with similar supply/demand characteristics, would the price remain at pretty much where it was in 1970??? In fact, adjusted for inflation, the $5/oz. price today is the equivalent of $0.84 in 1964, the last year we had coins made of silver. I am not a big proponent of silver or gold bullion as investments, but to me the current price of silver is too low to comprehend.

 

What do we use silver for? I'm not sure. I know it is used in photography, but with digital pictures the demand for this is shrinking. Is it used in cars? Electronics? Where is it used and will technology change the demand for it?

[Oldtrader3]

Most all circuit boards (with Surface Mount Technology) use silver based solder to hold components and plate circuits. There is also a fair component used for jewelry etc.

[Beijim]

Have you considered the fact that we have been running significant supply deficits in silver over the last 25 years? From 1990-2002 alone, the total deficit was 1,672,000,000 ounces (yes, that is 1.6 BILLION with a B ounces).

 

Your post implies there must exist some force, as yet unnamed, maintaining silver at an unnaturally low price. I'm aware of no such agent. Is the federal government regulating the price? Are external suppliers flooding the market with cheap silver mined outside the United States to sate short term hunger?

 

In any system with real goods, real supply, and real demand, the supply/demand dynamic ultimately sets the correct price. Obviously, this assertion excludes short term influences such as manipulation, regulation, intervention, and hysteria.

 

I'm therefore puzzled as to how it could possibly be that the price remains low with demand so far oustripping supply? After all, when demand for a new sports car exceeds the number actually built, dealer prices are firm at (and in some cases above) sticker. If there were an actual physical deficit of some 1.6B ounces, which is quite a lot of metal, the price of silver and everything dependent upon it (photographic film, dental services, jewelry, and electronic fabrication, to name a few) would have risen accordingly.

 

Silver is $5.00 per ounce because it's commonly available at $5.00 per ounce.

 

Beijim

 

[jtryka]

My guess is that the price is low due to the threat of digital photography ruining demand from that industry, as well as the availability of the metal to borrow and short into any rally. While I do not preclude the existence of market manipulation, I believe the silver market is more depressed due to a combination of misinformation, and lack of investment interest/demand. After all, how many people on this board were aware that the Mint ran out of silver, much less the general public. It's just not major news.

 

As for the uses of silver, over the last 5 years, photography accounted for 32%, Jewelry and silverware accounted for 35%, Electronics and batteries accounted for 13%, and other uses accounted for 20%. The problem with the photography issue is that although photgraphy accounts for roughy 1/3 of demand, it accounts for nearly all of the secondary supply used to make up for the production deficit. Plus, even with digital imaging, many traditional film uses will still exist beyond tourists taking snapshots of the grand canyon. Add to this the idea that silver in many uses is consumed, e.g. once used for solder on a circuit board it is virtually unrecoverable. And demand has been steadily increasing over the last decade, rising each year from 1990-98, with a blip down in 1999, an increase in 2000, and then declines with the recession in 2001-02. Even so, total demand increased from 569 million ounces in 1999 to 805 million last year. Eventually, the situation will catch up, and those speculating in paper silver on the COMEX will be shocked to discover that industrial users of the metal cannot get delivery of the physical.

[Leothelion]

The ole proverbial question is coming to mind, should I sell my gold and platinum?

I'm not really sitting on a gold mine here, , But to test the waters, I'm considering on selling 3-1 ounce American Eagles; 1999, 2000 and 2002, 1-quarter ounce 1997 American Eagle and 1999 1-10th ounce of Platinum, ALL with a total value of $1267.

So here we go! Do I hear $1300, $1300 anyone? $1300? $1275? How about $1275?$1250?..$1250?

 

Leo

 

Gold went back up a bit! Now it's all worth $1282! Are there any takers at $1282?

 

Leo

[jtryka]

No offense Leo, but as a Saint collector, I can't bring myself to pay money for an American Eagle gold bullion coin! If it makes you feel better though, I have purchased 4 Saints in the last week, and I didn't think about the price of gold at all when I bought them.

[Leothelion]

No offense Leo, but as a Saint collector, I can't bring myself to pay money for an American Eagle gold bullion coin! If it makes you feel better though, I have purchased 4 Saints in the last week, and I didn't think about the price of gold at all when I bought them.

 

I was able to do a trade for most of these items. Overall I find them to be nice. Although now I'm holding off on more gold till I see what happens with the market.

 

I remember that thread, nice gold coins! What did you trade for them? And what about the gold market are you watching for? Are you waiting for it to go up or down?

 

Leo

[jtryka]

I was able to do a trade for most of these items. Overall I find them to be nice. Although now I'm holding off on more gold till I see what happens with the market.

 

I remember that thread, nice gold coins! What did you trade for them? And what about the gold market are you watching for? Are you waiting for it to go up or down?

 

I think you are confused with nwcs' thread on the four coins he traded for. I just bought mine, and the only one I have a thread on is the 25-S, since that's the only one that's been delivered so far. As for my thoughts on gold, as a collector of this series, I don't think much about it, sorta the same way a collectore of Lincoln cents doesn't think about the price of copper. The last two I bought I paid more than 7-8x the gold value of the coin!

[Leothelion]

I remember seeing some very nice saints posted not too long ago. Wrong thread I refered to, sorry.

 

Leo

 

Found it! A 25-S! Someone had posted a couple more. Nice Saint!

[jtryka]

Thanks! I just got a 26-P yesterday, so I will post that next. The remaining two are a surprise that will be posted when I finally get them!

[Leothelion]

Gold has jumped up again! Now my little gold mine plus the platinum piece is worth $1297.93. Maybe I shouldn't sell? Also platinum is at an all time 5 year high $728, at least that's what the sites longest chart shows.

 

Leo

 

The bidding for my little gold mine is closed for now.

[chinook]

The dollar keeps dropping, hang on to that gold!!!!!!!

[goldog63-migration]

Gold has jumped up again! Now my little gold mine plus the platinum piece is worth $1297.93. Maybe I shouldn't sell? Also platinum is at an all time 5 year high $728, at least that's what the sites longest chart shows.

 

Leo

 

The bidding for my little gold mine is closed for now.

 

I don't understand your logic Leo. Why, on a given day when gold is moving, would you want to sell when you could get 1267 but hold now that you can get 1297. If you are that worried about the price then sell when it hits 1300

I believe the gold (and coin) bull market has more life in it. When it's $800/oz for no good reason and on the cover of Newsweek I'll sell.

Glenn

 

 

[Leothelion]

Hi Glenn

There's really know sound logic to my ranting other then having to pay the bills.

I could sell to Kitco if that's the way to go. However, as ignorant as I am with most markets, I know little about when to sell. Although, it would be great to see gold surpass $400, perhaps $500. Besides, gold always seems to make a great topic.

 

Leo

 

[Leothelion]

The ole proverbial question is coming to mind, should I sell my gold and platinum?

I'm not really sitting on a gold mine here, , But to test the waters, I'm considering on selling 3-1 ounce American Eagles; 1999, 2000 and 2002, 1-quarter ounce 1997 American Eagle and 1999 1-10th ounce of Platinum, ALL with a total value of $1267.

So here we go! Do I hear $1300, $1300 anyone? $1300? $1275? How about $1275?$1250?..$1250?

 

Leo

 

I had to dig this up since gold has surpassed $400. Back on Oct 5th when my little gold mine was worth $1267, it's now worth $1384, an increase of $117 in 7 short weeks. Will gold continue to rise? I'll send it FEDEX for $1450! Do I hear $1450? Going once..... going twice........

 

Leo

[dakra]

You got to do a better job of selling that!

Only $1450, What a deal! Next year at this time it could be worth $2,100! Especially with the experts saying gold will go up to $600... that's almost a 50% gain!

 

Well, it looks like $400 is the ooh ahh number. When gold goes over $400, excitement fills the air and when it goes below there seems to be a sense of sadness.

 

-Dave

[Beijim]

Especially with the experts saying gold will go up to $600...

 

"Experts" predicting the price of gold are like "experts" predicting stock prices. They make a career of pursuing goals that are fundamentally impossible to achieve. It cannot be done. In case there's any confusion as to why this is so, it's because random (and therefore unpredictable) events affect things like the price of gold, stock prices, and bus schedules. Don't take my word for it. Ask any mathematician.

 

Beijim

 

[jtryka]

Especially with the experts saying gold will go up to $600...

 

"Experts" predicting the price of gold are like "experts" predicting stock prices. They make a career of pursuing goals that are fundamentally impossible to achieve. It cannot be done. In case there's any confusion as to why this is so, it's because random (and therefore unpredictable) events affect things like the price of gold, stock prices, and bus schedules. Don't take my word for it. Ask any mathematician.

 

Beijim

 

As one of the "experts" making a living predicting stock prices, I take a good bit of offense at your wildly inaccurate statements. If you really want to debate the random walk and efficient markets hypothesis, we could, but maybe you just take your mathematician's word for it. Is it a mathematician that's managing your retirement funds?

[Oldtrader3]

Love it!!

[Leothelion]

Well, I had to bring this thread back up. I haven't been keeping tabs on gold lately until now. The stuff is up to $427.90! Has anyone heard where the price may go? Up up up? Or what?

 

Leo

[jtryka]

Yes, gold is back, but silver has been the real star since this thread was made, at the time you could have loaded up your truck for $5 an ounce, and now it's $7.88! It shouldn't be surprising, since commodity price inflation has been heating up, and the dollar continues to weaken. Of course you'd never know there was inflation if you just look at the reports from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. They ignore food and energy prices (two big areas of price increases) and place a lot of weight on the falling real prices of things like computers and autos. One anecdote on inflation, I went to Subway for lunch on Monday, and the sandwich that I used to pay $4.99 for, suddenly went up to $6.49! So much for 2% inflation! The reason was supposedly to cover the minimum wage increase (I wasn't aware there was one). Prices are rising, and the metals are rising as well.

[truthteller]

Physical gold was a bargain at $265 when I recommended a buy on Krands, which were discounted at the time. Now that Gold is at $427, I recommended my former customers to sell now. They ALL refused, thinking gold will go higher. I told them, sell 1/2 their positions, still no go. Unfortunately, the greed factor has set in. Physical silver may have gone up 50%, but the buy/sell spread is usually 20%, compared to 5% for 1oz gold. In addition, many coin dealers and level II suppliers will change their buy spreads when there is an upswing in spot silver. Futhermore, silver is much more bulky and difficult to move into safes and deposit boxes.

 

 

TRUTH