Are you gun-shy when it comes to MS63DMPL Morgans?

[cpm9ball]

It is possible to cherrypick 64DMPL's from 63DMPL's in raw state. The mirrored fields have a tendency to show every little imperfection, and I think this may be why some sellers undergrade them. I still recall the time that Jeremy (airplanenut) posted that '98-O that he picked up for $25. Wow! He sure made a score on that one, and I'd still like to buy it from him. What a beauty!

 

I've accumulated quite a few since that time both raw and slabbed, and just looking at hundreds of others has helped me to find some very good deals. If you don't think it can be worthwhile to cherrypick them, then just take a look at the list I've put together. The values quoted are the latest Grey Sheet Bids. The first figure is for MS63DMPL; the second figure is for MS64DMPL, and the third figure represents the percentage of increase from 63DMPL to 64DMPL. This is, by no means, totally scientific or mathematically accurate. Actual sales prices will vary, but it will give you an idea of what I mean.

 

1878 8TF: $750; $4160; 555%

1879: $180; $1800; 1000%

1880: $190; $875; 461%

1881-O: $150; $1250; 833%

1882-O: $105; $950; 905%

1883: $68; $400; 588%

1884: $140; $675; 482%

1885-S: $1750; $4500; 257%

1886-S: $1800; $5620; 311%

1887-O: $300; $1550; 517%

1888-O: $90; $380; 422%

1889-S: $1150; $4600; 400%

1890: $225; $1800; 800%

1891-S: $320; $2700; 844%

1896: $68; $250; 368%

1897-S: $180; $725; 403%

1898-O: $68; $240; 353%

1899-S: $900; $4400; 489%

1900: $1700; $5750; 338%

1901-O: $190; $750; 395%

1902-O: $245; $1150; 469%

1903: $1300; $3600; 277%

1904-O: $72; $280; 389%

1921: $1600; $5800; 363%

 

Total Bid prices for 24 MS63DMPL coins: $13541; Average - $564

Total Bid prices for 24 MS64DMPL coins: $54205; Average - $2259

Average Increase: 400%

 

I took it a little further and broke the figures into two groups: 1) those coins (6) with a 63DMPL bid over $1000, and 2) those coins (18) with a 63DMPL bid under $1000. Here are the figures:

 

Group 1

Total Bid prices for 6 MS63DMPL coins: $9300; Average - $1550

Total Bid prices for 6 MS64DMPL coins: $25820; Average - $4303

Average Increase: 278%

 

Group 2

Total Bid prices for 18 MS63DMPL coins: $4241; Average - $236

Total Bid prices for 18 MS64DMPL coins: $28385; Average - $1577

Average Increase: 669%

 

Wow, check that out! The coins whose Bid prices are below $1000 average 391% greater value than the coins whose Bid prices are over $1000. To me, that means that cherrypicking the lower priced DMPL's in MS63 can reap greater rewards.

 

So, tell me, why should anyone shy away from 63DMPL's if you're into collecting Morgans?

 

Chris

 

[DJCoinz]

I don't shy away from any DMPL's.

[Dcoin]

There is always a grade point when the increase in price skyrockets. This is pretty much true for just about any coin. I've always thought it was a good buying strategy to cherrypick the grade right before the spike in price.

[James_OldeTowne]

Chris, I have to agree with you. Excellent point, and an educational thread!

[Dwaine]

Wow, this is great Chris. Thanks for sharing.

[MikeInFL]

Very intersting thread....

 

It seems to me that you selected the dates with price appreciation in mind, and that your numbers, particularly the averages, have been skewed as a result -- and your conclusions may not hold if you broadened your sample set to include all dates.

 

That said, if cherrypicking, slabbling, then selling for profit is your thing (and more power to you!) then it seems that there is opportunity to be had, but frankly, making money off of coins is not why I collect. I do think, however, that choosing a grade "just before the price jump" is a wise collecting mantra if you're not going to collect the higest grade/best available.

 

To answer your question directly, I am not gunshy when it comes to collecting any grade as I am confident in my ability to grade, but neither am I a DMPL Morgan collector.

 

No matter what you collect or for what reason....Have fun...Mike

[cpm9ball]

Very intersting thread....

 

It seems to me that you selected the dates with price appreciation in mind, and that your numbers, particularly the averages, have been skewed as a result -- and your conclusions may not hold if you broadened your sample set to include all dates.

 

That said, if cherrypicking, slabbling, then selling for profit is your thing (and more power to you!) then it seems that there is opportunity to be had, but frankly, making money off of coins is not why I collect. I do think, however, that choosing a grade "just before the price jump" is a wise collecting mantra if you're not going to collect the higest grade/best available.

 

To answer your question directly, I am not gunshy when it comes to collecting any grade as I am confident in my ability to grade, but neither am I a DMPL Morgan collector.

 

No matter what you collect or for what reason....Have fun...Mike

 

Thanks for the input, Mike! I guess I should have been a little more specific about my objectives..

 

No, I didn't select dates with price appreciation in mind, but I did exclude a great many that I felt were too far out of the affordability range of most average collectors. What would be the point of factoring in a $50K, $100K or $300K coin when most people couldn't afford it. In that case, I do think the results would be skewed to the detriment of the average collector.

 

Also, I don't sell my Morgans for profit. It is the thrill of the chase if you know what I mean. Putting a price tag on them tends to make your goals, and more importantly, your achievements more rewarding.

 

The only reason that I chose that title for this thread was because of a comment made in one of the other threads about 63DMPL's.

 

Chris

[bsshog40]

Interesting bit of math you did there Chris. You've actually made the point also of why it would be so easy for a TPG to grade a coin 63 instead of 64. The price differences that you are showing, I'm sure effect alot of other type coins also. All it takes is a couple minute nics to go from 64 to 63. When you look at guaranteed values for these in slabs, it's alot cheaper to guarantee a lower grade than a higher one.

[MikeInFL]

Thanks for your explanation, Chris. Your intent is more clear to me now, and I appreciate you sharing your insight into this series...Mike

 

 

 

[cpm9ball]

From what I've seen, Bobby, the grading services tend to be a little more lenient on DMPL's in a similar manner that is common with CC and/or GSA Morgans. Not quite as generous, but still more forgiving than for a normal Morgan.

 

Chris

[MikeKing]

how about some pictures?

[James_OldeTowne]

I'd like to augment the discussion with a diversionary question. Does anyone else have a great deal of difficulty evaluating DMPL surfaces on coins in slabs? I have a devil of a time knowing whether the reflectivity is from the coin or the slab.

[cpm9ball]

I'd like to augment the discussion with a diversionary question. Does anyone else have a great deal of difficulty evaluating DMPL surfaces on coins in slabs? I have a devil of a time knowing whether the reflectivity is from the coin or the slab.

 

James, have you ever looked real closely at a Mint-encased proof set? You can see the reflection if you place a loupe real close to the plastic case. The coin will sometimes look like it has a double image. That is because you see the reflection bounced off the plastic and bounced again off the coin. You can't judge the depth of the reflectivity, but you can determine if there is any or not.

 

As far as taking pictures through the plastic, you can forget it where my abilities are concerned.

 

Chris

[SkyMan]

I was going to bring up James' point... especially if you are buying raw. While some coins leap out at you as DMPL as opposed to PL (and tend to be priced accordingly by dealers) a high percentage of coins in the 63-4 range can fall in the gray zone, so while you may buy a raw 63 DMPL it may grade out as a slabbed 64 PL (which can still be profitable, but not necessarily so).

 

I wish you well on your upgrading! (thumbs u Most importantly, have fun with it!

[michael]

Are you gun-shy when it comes to MS63DMPL Morgans?

 

YES as a TRUE ms63 dmpl really looks like as the deep mirrors excentuate/magnify the marks and ticks BIG TIME AND THE COIN LOOKS TERRIBLE from an eye appeal standpoint and 100% of dmpl beauty desirability is from eye appeal this is why in higher grades the prices hence demand goes up expondentially

 

this is why ms63 true ms 63 DMPL morgans will always be ugly ducklings hence undervalued

 

things might change if many new/long term collectors sacrifice BIG TIME on quality and eye appeal and start to demand ms 63 dmpl morgans

 

i think that raw for a price they are okie but you better get them cheap as you will have a collection of ugly coins.............. now of course might there be 1 out of 200 ms 63 dmpl morgans that are good lookers?? possibly

 

 

[michael]

with pcgs they will only certify dmpl coins that only look dmpl in the holders and for many this is a liner

 

now yes for a killer monster dmpl 1879-s morgan it is a simple thingb to see a killer dmpl 79-s in a pcgs slab if it is cameoed and ultra deeply mirrored

 

doe some like an 1881-0 in pcgs dmpl you wonder how it got holdered as a dmpl 81-0 is a much different standard for dmpl than say for a 79-s

 

 

[James_OldeTowne]

I'd like to augment the discussion with a diversionary question. Does anyone else have a great deal of difficulty evaluating DMPL surfaces on coins in slabs? I have a devil of a time knowing whether the reflectivity is from the coin or the slab.

I meant to add that I have the same problem evaluating DMPL surfaces in GSA holders....

 

[cpm9ball]

how about some pictures?

 

Mike, I'm sorry that I didn't respond to your request sooner. I just forgot about it. I mentioned in another post that my photographic skills aren't the best, and I don't think any examples I might post would be sufficient. However, if you go to the DLRC website and check out their certified, DMPL Morgans, you will see what I mean. Run-of-the-mill Morgans would not get the 64's & 65's that you see there.

 

Chris

[pbfloyd-migration]

 

I have this one.

[bsshog40]

Picture is a little small there Floyd but I can still see it looks like a decent Morgan. One thing I did notice is I thought that there was "PL" and "DMPL". I noticed this Morgan is "DPL". I guess this is all based on the quality of the mirrored feilds?

[pbfloyd-migration]

 

Hope this picture is better. As you can see a 63 can be pretty too!

[cpm9ball]

Picture is a little small there Floyd but I can still see it looks like a decent Morgan. One thing I did notice is I thought that there was "PL" and "DMPL". I noticed this Morgan is "DPL". I guess this is all based on the quality of the mirrored feilds?

 

Bobby, NGC uses DPL whereas PCGS and ANACS use DMPL.

 

Chris

[bsshog40]

Okee dokee, thanks Chris.

[Mirrored Morgan]

 

Wow, check that out! The coins whose Bid prices are below $1000 average 391% greater value than the coins whose Bid prices are over $1000. To me, that means that cherrypicking the lower priced DMPL's in MS63 can reap greater rewards.

 

So, tell me, why should anyone shy away from 63DMPL's if you're into collecting Morgans?

 

Chris

 

Chris, I would tell you to buy MS63 PCGS DMPL's and try and stay away from raw prooflike looking Morgans. I would think that any Dimple not in a slab has been BB for altered surfaces or for cleaning. There use to be this seller on ebay that would sell raw DMPL's. They all looked like they had a good dipping at one time and would not make it in a Top TPG holder. Also, stay away from the older PCGS DMPL slabs, many would only grade PL these days. PCGS has changed their standards on what a DMPL Morgan should look like and I am speaking from experience on this one.

 

You did a great job in pointing out the price differences on your selected dates. Trying to get 64 DMPL's from 63 DMPL's would be like pulling teeth with a pair of pliers at PCGS, very hard to do.

[BillJones]

I don't care for most P-L Morgan dollars because every mark shows up like a big red stop sign to me. Lots of bag marks a MAJOR TURN-OFF for me.

 

I can't recall ever buying one that graded less than MS-64. Virtually every MS-63 graded P-L that I've seen was ugly as sin. I'd never buy one those sight unseen.