Review of 8th edition of U.S. Pattern Coins

[mark]

I just posted this on the other side of the street, but I figured everyone over here who has been banned by that other place deserves a chance to read my book review. (BIG )More seriously, here's my opinion of the new edition of Judd's book:

 

The 8th edition of U.S. Pattern Coins carries on the work started by Judd (and others). This time the book is edited by Q. David Bowers, prices complied by Robert Hughes, and research associate Saul Teichman. In addition, our own MrEureka (Andy Lustig) was a major contributor. For instance, Andy contributed endnote 3 for 1868-1871: "Andrew Lustig adds: 'If not THE greatest'." (If you want to know what Andy was discussing, he'll have to add to this thread! )

 

The book is a fine continuation to the Judd series. Bowers has written a commentary for virtually each year in which patterns were struck. He gives the "History and Overview" and then a "Collecting Perspective" for each year's pattern coinage. These, alone, are worth the $30 price of the book. Anyone with an interest in the history of the U.S. mint will find these sections fascinating--they are chock full of interesting tidbits, all presented in Bowers' classic writing style. For instance, take this discussion of the patterns of 1868: "Among other patterns of 1868 is the intriguing '1868 large cent' (J-610 and J-611) incorporating an obverse die identical in its concept to a Braided Hair large copper cent of the 1843-1857 era, but dated 1868. The reverse die is identical to that used 1843-1857 on the cents. ... Many collectors have been startled to learn of the existence of a genuine 1868 large cent. The history of this strange anachronism, 11 years after the regular series had ended, is at once complete and incomplete. It is known, for instance, that a ten-cent coin of similar design had previously been struck as part of an exeprimental coinage. The obverse die was prepared from a large cent hub, the current date then being punched in. What happened then was, perhaps, inevitable. By some inscrutable means, the regular reverse die of the large cent which had been stored away, suddenly appeared together with--of all things--a dozen or so large cent planchets of exact size and weight and perfectly proofed! After these wonderous events--which we can only construe as being providential--there was nothing left to do but strike the coins!" Bowers' comments are, indeed, worth the price of admission!

 

The book is a continuation of Judd's work. Compared to Pollock's epic masterpiece, the past editions of Judd presented very few die varieties. So, too, with this edition because, unlike Pollock who both illustrated the different die varieties and gave them unique Pollock numbers, the 8th edition of Judd generally notes the presence of die varieties but does not illustrate them nor give them unique Judd numbers. In this sense, the Judd book is somewhat incomplete compared to Pollock. But the Judd book has more background on the coins and is probably superior for those who want a strong introduction to patterns.

 

The book, however, is not perfect. One weak point is especially disappointing: The pictures vary in quality from great to poor. In some of the pictures, all the details are easily observed. Other pictures, though, look like round, grey circles. (If you have a copy of the book, compare the picture of J-186 to J-187; J-186 isn't great, but the details are all there; J-187 allows you to determine that this particular pattern is round...probably.) The pictures in Pollock (and past editions of Judd) are superior.

 

The other weak point is in the pricing of the patterns. For each pattern, the book gives an estimated rarity, the number encapsulated at PCGS and NGC, the number of recent auction appearances and information about the last time the coin was traded at auction (the auction company, the date, the price, the grade, and the encapsulation service, if any). These data seem fine. But the book then gives estimated prices in MS (or PR) 60, 63, and 65. I don't know if these prices are forecasts of future prices, but they generally seem very aggressive. For instance, in 3-2003, an NGC PF65RB J-296 sold for $2,900 and the book lists a price of $4,500 for PR65; a J-1693 sold in 1-2003 for $8,625 in PCGS PR65 but the book gives an estimated price of $11,000 for PR65; or a J-1608 in NGC PR65 sold in 2-2003 for $97,750 but the book gives an estimated price of $125,000 for PR65. Almost always, the estimated prices are much higher than recent auction prices. I suspect that Robert Hughes, who complied the prices, must not have had access to the data showing recent auction prices when he was putting together his estimates of the prices.

 

Is the book worth buying? ABSOLUTELY! If you already collect patterns, you need it. If you don't, buy the book anyway. ANR is selling copies autographed by David Bowers and, as I said before the book is only $30. Buy this book before the coin and you won't be sorry!

 

Mark

[EVillageProwler]

Thanks for the book review, Mark. I, too, have looked with suspicion at the pricing data and view them in much the same way as I do any other price "guide" -- that they are just guides, a starting point but hardly an end point. Only a real free market dictates true pricing.

 

Many people love to quote CDN pricing for PQ or ultra-rare specimens, and I usually respond by saying that I'll buy all they have (like mine) for CDN price. Likewise, many have tried to sell me bland widgets at Greysheet pricing when they normally trade at Bluesheet (or less).

 

Fundamentally, my point is that real-time pricing is not beholden to a book or a magazine.

 

Of course, it also doesn't help that it is RLH who's making up the projected pricing data!

 

EVP

 

[BOILER78]

EVP- Amen to your pricing observation!

[Coinosaurus]

Ya know, pricing is hard enough, but pricing some of these really thinly traded things is REALLY hard. If RLH was consistently within 30% of his estimate vs. market results, I would say he is doing pretty good. My opinion, though, is forget all the estimates. Just show what auction results exist and let the collector make their own decision.

[EVillageProwler]

One more comment about the pricing of the patterns...

 

While I do stand behind my comment regarding the fanciful nature of relying on printed price guides, one should never forget that vast bulk of the patterns are both exceedingly beautiful and rare.

 

If we get only a small handful of new entrants into this market, then the RLH pricing could easily seem fanciful from the other direction! It's like trying to do Calculus with a non-fixed frame of reference!

 

With the new Judd book out, what is the projected origin for this new calculus?

 

EVP

 

[Newmismatist]

Excellant review of this book.

 

Pages 8-25 in the introduction should be required reading for anyone who collects COINS, not just patterns. It is informative, accurate and provides a wealth of useful information which will help you in analysing coins that you intend to purchase. I believe that Q David Bowers wrote that portion of the book and reading it will help you understand why he is one of the best numismatists of this past 1/2 century.