Will we ever see fractional silver eagles?

[Revenant]

There are 4 different sizes/denoms of gold and platinum american eagles. This helps make sure that the "poor collector" isn't completely priced out of the game. Without this I wouldn't have been able to get my 1/4 Oz eagle and I certainly can't afford the 1 Oz. My question then becomes, if silver rises to $30/Oz or higher, do you think we'll see silver eagles in 1/2 Oz or lower become available?

 

This is something that just occured to me out of the blue.

[kryptonitecomics]

I don't believe so......$30 bucks is still pretty cheap and should be affordable to anyone who wants to own a chunk of precious metal. I don't think the mint would want to waste the time an energy to create fractional silver eagles but after seeing some of there products over the last 10 years.....

[Dcoin]

If they couldn’t get their act together on fractional buffalo's then I don't think they will make the effort for silver.

[MAULEMALL]

If silverhits $30.00 an oz.I will be selling ALL mine and will wait for the next crash.

[Revenant]

I don't believe so......$30 bucks is still pretty cheap and should be affordable to anyone who wants to own a chunk of precious metal. I don't think the mint would want to waste the time an energy to create fractional silver eagles but after seeing some of there products over the last 10 years.....

 

Yes, I said $30 because I like to err on the conservative side, but I've heard estimates that put it in the $50 range or higher. While even that's still pretty cheap, either price would still put a half oz of silver at a higher melt value than the 1 oz coin is currently. That might provide enough of an incentive.

[carson city]

Do you hear these voices in your head that silver will be in the $50 range or are these just your unnamed sources !

[physics-fan3.14]

I don't think silver will get to $50, but $20 might be possible. And if you want smaller silver, just buy bulk 90%. If you really want smaller bullion silver, I think that some of the foreign bullion programs have fractional silver, but am not sure about that.

[Revenant]

I don't think silver will get to $50, but $20 might be possible. And if you want smaller silver, just buy bulk 90%. If you really want smaller bullion silver, I think that some of the foreign bullion programs have fractional silver, but am not sure about that.

 

I've been reading articles by supposedly respected economists that think it'll go that high or higher. Personally, I have my doubts as well but I try not to completely discount people who have been looking into such things longer than I've lived.

 

I'm not really worried about buying bullion silver or smaller bullion silver. I collect the SAEs because I like the coins and they started mintage in my birthyear, not as a silver bullion investment. The rising silver price just makes it more expensive to buy what I want. This was just a funny idea that popped into my head today. (After all, fractional silver means more to collect).

 

Thanks for your input.

[physics-fan3.14]

Without knowing who you are reading, I can't comment specifically. But alot of these "respected economists" are really just people who are in it to sell something and by telling you this, you are more likely to buy their product, whether it is some "special" report or something else. Others are just doom and gloom sorts of people who really enjoy making wild predictions and ridiculous claims. They also like to see people panicking - they thrive on market volatility.

 

Anyone who makes a claim like $50 silver immediately loses credibility until they convince me they have a strong argument, which is unlikely. These are the same sorts of people that predict gold at $1200, or pick your favorite number. Anyone who makes a claim like $20 silver has a lot less convincing to do, but they still need a good argument that makes logical, economic, historic, practical sense.

[Revenant]

Without knowing who you are reading, I can't comment specifically. But alot of these "respected economists" are really just people who are in it to sell something and by telling you this, you are more likely to buy their product, whether it is some "special" report or something else. Others are just doom and gloom sorts of people who really enjoy making wild predictions and ridiculous claims. They also like to see people panicking - they thrive on market volatility.

 

Anyone who makes a claim like $50 silver immediately loses credibility until they convince me they have a strong argument, which is unlikely. These are the same sorts of people that predict gold at $1200, or pick your favorite number. Anyone who makes a claim like $20 silver has a lot less convincing to do, but they still need a good argument that makes logical, economic, historic, practical sense.

 

Well, it's never been my nature to arbitrarily dismiss someone as a doomsayer unless I had a really good reason. I can never seem to find an article when I want to but here's one thing that suggests a silver boom: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1193161018.php . I've seen others but I can't find any of the articles anymore. Most of the other arguements I've seen revolve around silver as an industrial substance.

[physics-fan3.14]

Well, it's never been my nature to arbitrarily dismiss someone as a doomsayer unless I had a really good reason. I can never seem to find an article when I want to but here's one thing that suggests a silver boom: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1193161018.php . I've seen others but I can't find any of the articles anymore. Most of the other arguements I've seen revolve around silver as an industrial substance.

 

I am not arbitrarily dismissing them, I have a good reason - they predict silver at $50. I have seen various reports, judged the data through my wordlview, and come to the conclusion that a prediction of $50 silver is wrong. Many of the crazy silver reports revolve around silver in industry, even though the photography business (once the largest user of silver industry) is being severely limited by digital. This is one of the best arguments for (a limited) increasing silver price however, when the data is properly interpreted and not twisted around a biased prediction. Another good argument for increasing silver is the weakening dollar. However, this is a short term problem and will not lead to $50.

 

What is not a good argument, but is usually used by these crazy prophets, is a historical trend for silver. They compare it to the historical value of the dollar, or the historical ratio with gold, or some other standard. Usually, these predictions show a clear lack of knowledge of history and economics, or a willful neglect and misinterpretation. By far the worst argument for high silver prices, however, is "Well, it was there once already." The situation then and now are very different, despite some apparent similarities. As soon as I see any of these arguments for a high price of silver, I dismiss them. Not arbitrarily, but because I already know what they have to say and have already evaluated it and decided it is wrong.

 

As for the article you linked, for the most part, it is just reporting an actual situation - a newspaper article except for the last three paragraphs. I had never heard of the situation, but apparently it happened. However, he loses it when he starts making the conclusion that this has a big impact on the market. He wrote about a single incident, and not a large one. He then generalizes this incident to the entire market, saying that it has or will have a huge impact. I agree, if this were widespread, then it would have a huge impact. But he makes no case for it being widespread, and he shows no evidence that this was not a single incident. This is faulty logic, and so his last three paragraphs make no sense. These are the kinds of pitfalls and deceptions you must be aware of when dealing with speculations like this.

[Revenant]

However, he loses it when he starts making the conclusion that this has a big impact on the market. He wrote about a single incident, and not a large one. He then generalizes this incident to the entire market, saying that it has or will have a huge impact. I agree, if this were widespread, then it would have a huge impact. But he makes no case for it being widespread, and he shows no evidence that this was not a single incident. This is faulty logic, and so his last three paragraphs make no sense. These are the kinds of pitfalls and deceptions you must be aware of when dealing with speculations like this.

 

Morgan Stanley’s actions were not in any way unique in this practice. In fact, in the court documents summarizing the proposed settlement, one of Morgan Stanley’s defenses was that they were not doing anything unusual by charging storage on metal that didn’t exist, as this is a widespread industry practice.

 

He does offer at least a little to extend this case out to the entire market and we have to assume that at the very least this man wasn't the only person MS was supposed to be storing silver for. As for his predictions as to the overall magnitude of the situation, he all but admits himself that he's basically just guessing. That said though, his guess is roughly equal to the annual global consumption of silver IIRC. That seems high to me, but even if it's a fraction of that then there could be problems. (I'm mostly just playing devil's advocate at this point.)

[jtryka]

Yeah, all those people talking about $50 silver are just plain crazy, just like all those people a few years ago that kept talking about gold finally getting back to $800, like that'll ever happen in our lifetimes...

 

PS- Mexico has fractional silver Libertads, but they tend to be rather expensive when compared to buying just a plain 1-ounce coin. I've seen the 1/10th ounce going for $5 or more (which ironically enough is $50/ounce), 1/4 ounce at $9-10, and 1/2 ounce at $15. There are definitely more economical ways to buy silver.

[Revenant]

Yeah, all those people talking about $50 silver are just plain crazy, just like all those people a few years ago that kept talking about gold finally getting back to $800, like that'll ever happen in our lifetimes...

 

PS- Mexico has fractional silver Libertads, but they tend to be rather expensive when compared to buying just a plain 1-ounce coin. I've seen the 1/10th ounce going for $5 or more (which ironically enough is $50/ounce), 1/4 ounce at $9-10, and 1/2 ounce at $15. There are definitely more economical ways to buy silver.

 

Why do people keep assuming I want to be practical?

[PerryHall]

The fractional silver coins would be popular for use in the jewelry industry.

[jtryka]

Why do people keep assuming I want to be practical?

 

Well if that's the case, I would go with the Libertads as the designs are very pretty indeed.

[Revenant]

Why do people keep assuming I want to be practical?

 

Well if that's the case, I would go with the Libertads as the designs are very pretty indeed.

 

Yes, I've done a little bit of looking into that and I'm definitely going to have to pick up some of those when I have the cash. I think when I do though it's going to be the 1 Oz coin becuase the larger coins just show off the pattern better. Do you know if NGC grades the libertads? I know they grade other Mexican coins and I know they don't have Mexican registry sets but I can't find any graded libertads. I'd want to get the thing slabbed if I could.

[jtryka]

I don't know if they grade them, expecially since I keep my set in a nice Littleton album. I would guess they probably could grade them but there might not be much demand.

[Revenant]

I don't know if they grade them, expecially since I keep my set in a nice Littleton album. I would guess they probably could grade them but there might not be much demand.

 

I'd be willing to get them graded myself if needed. I don't really like the idea of an album for them because I'd only want 1 or 2 representative pieces, not a complete set. I prefer the American eagles for that. I'll probably also look into getting a Britannia, a silver maple leaf, and maybe a Panda. I just love these large silver coins.

[World Colonial]

I have not bought any, but I would rather the US Mint issue Palladium Eagles. This was a cheap metal a few years ago (under $200 versus about $375 now) but I could never find a way to buy it in what I considered a form that could be easily bought and sold. There were only obscure one ounce bars with a premium that I thought was too high above melt. There is a Canadian Palladium Maple Leaf now which is the only real option.

[World Colonial]

I believe that metal prices will be higher longer term because of the poor record of government's in managing money, but not now. I think that all metal prices are over extended today and almost everyone is bullish on them which from a contrarion standpoint is a negative. Silver I believe is the most vulnerable because it is more of an industrial than a monetary metal and with the potential of the credit crunch to cause a recession, the demand for it should fall.

 

Speaking of credit, this is the best explanation why metal prices have been rising with financial assets. This can also be applied to all asset prices, including the coins we all collect. I do not know where the source data comes from (presumably published spot and futures prices) but I read today that the correlation between silver and the S&P 500 index from October 2002 (the last major or at least intermediate low for the US stock market) to October 2007 is 91%. For gold it is 92%. The implication of this is that if the credit bubble is the cause of both these trends (which is what I believe), then a credit contraction would lead to a decline in these prices and possibly across the board in all markets.