Where is the price of gold going

[MikeKing]

And what influence does this have on scare/rare gold coin prices?

 

Gold has risen about $200 an ounce in the past year and looks like it's still climbing.

 

[jtryka]

Personally, I think gold will probably continue rising for the next half decade and it would not surprise me if it eventually reached well into 4-digits per ounce. Remember, oil has broken nominal price records and is near its all time high on an inflation adjusted basis, whereas gold isn't even near its all time nominal high yet.

 

As for the impact on gold coin prices with will have the most direct impact on generic coins that trade closer to bullion values, but will also have an impact on scarce/rare coins (and the least impact on ultra rarities). I think there may be a side effect of making these coins harder to find, as more collectors/investors will opt to hold onto their coins rather than selling, so that may amplify the impact of bullion prices on those coin prices. Again, this is only my opinion.

[Revenant]

I think we'll be looking at a more gradual raise in the price of gold. The credit scare has people rushing to gold at the same time holiday demand for jewelry is upping demand. I think the current rate of increase (it's been rising at about $10/ounce/week) will slow and there might even be a pretty severe correction coming in the next few weeks. The credit scare and the rush to commodities is slightly detaching the price from a realistic supply/demand curve.

 

[rbrown4]

Personally, I think gold will probably continue rising for the next half decade and it would not surprise me if it eventually reached well into 4-digits per ounce. Remember, oil has broken nominal price records and is near its all time high on an inflation adjusted basis, whereas gold isn't even near its all time nominal high yet.

 

As for the impact on gold coin prices with will have the most direct impact on generic coins that trade closer to bullion values, but will also have an impact on scarce/rare coins (and the least impact on ultra rarities). I think there may be a side effect of making these coins harder to find, as more collectors/investors will opt to hold onto their coins rather than selling, so that may amplify the impact of bullion prices on those coin prices. Again, this is only my opinion.

 

I tend to agree with this outlook.

 

Rey

[Houston Investor]

There are a lot of excellent articles about this subject on the Kitco Silver page. Read those written by Roger Wiegand.

 

I believe Gold will continue to rise until it is well into the $3000 range. Silver should follow along with it. Platinum has outperformed gold in 2007.

 

All three metals have potential its going to be interesting how much they gain relative to one another from here out. How will numismatic coins be affected? So far there seems to be no spill over as evidenced by the lackluster PCGS 3000. Consider too, that numismatic coins if you get in a bind and need to sell them say at a coin shop, the most they will probably offer you is blue sheet bid. Shops make their money for the most part buying. When people walk up to sell me coins at a show I simply whip out my bluesheet. If they don't like it they can go sell them somewhere else. I have enough for investment or retail than to buy some more that I can not move in this slow market. I have been increasing my bullion positions a bit. Higher oil prices, coming mortgage defaults, and the falling dollar will exert tremendous upward pressure on gold and silver. Another swing factor is the question - Will the US attack Iran?

 

Considering that Iran has already committed an act of war by aiding our enemies in Iraq (shipping them weapons) and their becoming a nuclear cafeteria to our enemies is unacceptable, I think its only a matter of time before the US will attack them.

[michael]

gold gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

it is going well close to 850++ in 2008 silver will be a much bigger performer percentage wise in 2008 to 20+ an ounce

 

 

[bsshog40]

I'd like to see silver do that Michael!!

[michael]

the big winners will be choice original eye appealling classic head gold au to choice to gem unc.

 

choice au to gem unc three dollar gold and scarcer dates even better

 

and of course the ulitmate pre 1915 proof gold along with uncirculated original territorials.........................

 

 

 

[bsshog40]

Well that leaves me out. I no have any gold!

[michael]

I'd like to see silver do that Michael!!

 

oh my make no mistake about it .......................you will see it with silver if not even moreso

 

 

 

 

[Revenant]

Well that leaves me out. I no have any gold!

 

I know how you feel, but I have wee bit of gold now. I have much more silver at this point.

[Ted K-migration]

The whole sub-prime problem made large investors skittish about obviously mortgage stocks, but also a lot of tangential stocks that they feared could be effected. As such, when investors get worried about stocks, there's a natural shift to commodities which they anticipate to be more stable and at least retain money if not gain.

 

With big money shifting into commodities comes a surge in gold prices because of increased demand, as gold is often the place investors try to wait out market fluctuations when there's large amounts of money involved. Thus the spike in gold prices without percentage corresponding spikes in other metals prices. The stock fluctuations (IIRC the Dow hit 14K in the last week or two, only to slide back down as the reality of the continued problems in the mortgage industry sank back in) have gone on long enough that the smaller investors are starting to get worried about the possibility of losing chunks of money to all of this.

 

As they smaller investors shift to metals, not only do they not always necessarily have enough liquidity to move into a strong position with gold, but people are seeing now how gold has gone up a lot and silver has remained relatively stable. I saw this a few weeks ago when silver was around 12.50 spot, and picked up some bullion. Within a week it was sitting at 13.50, and it's been dancing back and forth between that and 14 since.

 

Gold certainly will continue to rise as the stocks are drawn down by paranoia about mortgage problems, and the longer that goes on, other metals I think will rise as well. With silver being an easier buy-in than gold for smaller investors, if enough small investors start shifting I think we'll see a higher rise in prices with silver than we will proportionately with gold going forward. I think 3k/oz for gold is a little optimistic, though.

 

This really all depends on the duration of the fallout from the fact that people got variable rate mortgages and now with the rise in prime, and thus interest rates are now defaulting on their mortgages because they can't make their payments. A few things could have a large effect on this. The most obvious is if the Fed makes changes to prime to try to offset some of the problems this is causing, though realistically they're only going to drop it so much and there's still going to be problems. The other factor is people selling property and moving out of mortgages. Property prices are still a little high, but I think they will have come down enough in 3-6 months that combined with a drop in prime, thus dropping mortgage rates that there may be somewhat of a turnaround where more people will be buying. Hopefully they will have learned enough by the current problems that they will be taking the extra point or two for a fixed rate mortgage and there won't be a repeat of what's gone on in the last 5 years, which would have (for the metals investor) the unfortunate side effect of softening the price of metals.

 

That's just on a US scale, and I think the outcome of the next election and what happens in the middle east based on who's the next prsident will obviously have long-term effects. Compound this with the rise of economies in Asia (India's come a long way, and I think has a bit to go, and China's just getting started, really) and things could go a lot of different ways. China's dollar (can't remember the name offhand) I think is still very undervalued, and the combination of the gaining strength of their economy along with their holding it undervalued could have a negative effect on the strength of the USD, thus raising metal even more relative to the USD as that weakens. Their economic policy, along with the policies of other traditionally weak economies now rising in asia could create a big swing in USD either way, I think it's still a bit early to tell.

 

I'm not a trained broker or anything, these are just a few observations that I've made of things over the last couple of years, so take all this with the appropriate bag of salt. Didn't mean to write quite so much, but It's information I've been mulling over for a while and finally had an opportunity to express it, so it sort of had a mind of it's own. I'd say "my .02" but with this amount of writing I think we're closer to "my half-dime" territory.

[DC Dawg]

That's just on a US scale, and I think the outcome of the next election and what happens in the middle east based on who's the next prsident will obviously have long-term effects. Compound this with the rise of economies in Asia (India's come a long way, and I think has a bit to go, and China's just getting started, really) and things could go a lot of different ways. China's dollar (can't remember the name offhand) I think is still very undervalued, and the combination of the gaining strength of their economy along with their holding it undervalued could have a negative effect on the strength of the USD, thus raising metal even more relative to the USD as that weakens. Their economic policy, along with the policies of other traditionally weak economies now rising in asia could create a big swing in USD either way, I think it's still a bit early to tell.

Ted... I think you put a little too much emphasis on the sub-prime and housing issues. It is a factor but not the only factor. What is not talked about with the recent housing issue is how credit has tightened in general and how credit helps circulate money to move and grow our economy.

 

In the above paragraph, you begin touch on the breaking point of the economy and why people are running to precious metals (primarily gold) for cover. As earnings season goes forward, listen to what these companies are saying about their foreign business. Many note that their profit margins are contingent on their foreign business. Companies that sell commoditites and basic building materials to China are living off the profit made there because their sales in the United States are slow.

 

Every so often I will read the Beige Book, the Fed's assessment of the economy, and the Blue Book, the version published by the New York Fed that includes their world business. In their last published tomes, both books acknowleged that the better world economy is keeping the US economy from going into recession. Without the world economy we would have to bring back a term from the 70s: stagflation!

 

One of the areas of concern is China. One of the problems is that the communist regiem controlls the valuation of the Yuan (pronounced the wahn) rather than let the market set to the price. But China is in a bind. In order to back the valuation of the yuan they needed something, so they bought US bonds. With the US dollar very weak against foreign currencies, they are afraid that if they let the yuan float in the open market, it will be devalued and will cause economic disaster. With the Olympics coming up in Beijing, I don't see the Chinese doing anything that has the potential to hur their economy.

 

All that brings us to why the precious metals market is growing: the valuation of the dollar! The dollar against world currencies is horrible and when money markets are not doing well, people pull their money out of those market and buy precious metals, especially gold. Right now, the Euro costs $1.40; the British pound is $2.03; and is worth LESS than the Canadian dollar since the market close on Friday shows that the Canadian dollar is worth $1.01! Remember, it has been almost 30 years since the US and Canadian dollar were on par.

 

There are a lot of reasons for this that includes the impact of the money being used in US foreign policy, demand for goods and services around the world, the slowing of demand in the US, the impact of higher prices caused by the rising dollar against commodities traded in dollars (e.g., oil), and the supply of money which was made higher over the summer as the fed dumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the credit market to stop the bleeding before lowering the discount rate. This does not count the amount of debt paper being floated because of the size of the US deficit. However, all of these market factors are the after effect of US government-based policy actions.

 

After discussing it with my financial advisor, I have moved my money away from US-only based investments. Money and equivalents are now in precious metals and investing instruments that are precious metal-based. Most of the manufacturing sector stocks and funds have been moved to companies who are building overseas and making equipment used for heavy mining. I also broke the strategy to buy a few silver mining stocks a few months ago when I learned that Warren Buffet was doing the same. Since this is my retirement money, I am being very careful. So far, it's worked, but I know the markets can crash at any time!!

 

In 2008, I think metals will continue to rise. There will be more activity in silver when gold gets too expensive for some. The US economy will not change and the foreign economy will not get that much better. Look for the Asian economy to join the rest of us following the 2008 Olympics, when the last of that money will be spent. I see September 2008 as the beginning of a hard downfall for the economy because the world markets will slow with the slowing in China. For that, I feel sorry for the GOP candidate who will have the bear this burden in the next election and not be elected or defeated on his own merrit or demerrits.

 

Just my double-eagle's worth!!

 

Scott

[Houston Investor]

Once silver hits the $20 to $25 range it will have a big impact on generic dollars in grades circ to MS 64. How will MS 65's be affected? Will they catch fire or is there simply too many of them make the big percentage gain of more bullion related material? I especially like CC's in MS 64 and higher especially DMPL's. You may want to supplement your 90% ebay silver purchases, AGE's, MS 64 Saints, MS 63 Libs, with some of this not to mention some of your newly slabbed USM products. I also like nice circ silver dollars in the $10 to $15 range.

 

Any nice gold or silver coins you can buy close to melt should be a winner. Take a look at what Apmex has.

[just-john]

With my luck gold will reach $3000 per oz but my suv will only getting 6mpg and the oil nations only taking EURO'S and i live in the country driving to town and back will cost me $2300.00

I LIKE JAN LENO'S ADVISE FORGET GOLD AND SILVER THE METAL TO INVEST IN IS LEAD THAT'S THE METAL USED BY CHINA IN MOST OF THEIR PRODUCTS

[jtryka]

I still think we are very early in the bull market in metals, the fact remains that average investors are not in the market at all to speak of, the institutional investors are still turning first to bonds when they get nervous, which is a smart move if you think rates are headed down. Ultimately when my barber starts telling me about the gold he's buying, then I know the top is here, but right now he is still talking about stocks.

[BillJones]

So long as the U.S. dollar continues to lose value relative to foreign exchange rates and the price of crude oil continues to increase, gold is going to go higher. Do I think that gold will stay as these high levels in the long run? I tend to doubt it. When things settle a bit it will come down. It might come down in any case if the speculators find some where else to put their money.

 

Gold is now the driving force behind the current bull coin market. Aside from that I think we would be looking at a declining situation. Sure, there are high rollers that are paying record prices for rarities and would be rarities, but my perception is that the small collector is tapped out. Energy prices and worries over his mortage debt has gotten his financial attention.

[astrostu]

Considering that Iran has already committed an act of war by aiding our enemies in Iraq (shipping them weapons) and their becoming a nuclear cafeteria to our enemies is unacceptable, I think its only a matter of time before the US will attack them.

 

While I disagree with some of your interpretation, I agree that the situation in the Middle East is what I'm watching for the price of precious metals. Economies fall, countries are destroyed, and the paper we exchange for daily goods and services can become valueless. But people will always want precious metals - they've been using them for thousands of years and I believe will continue to use them. I'm sure there's some Rule of Acquisition along those lines ...

[MBA101]

Gold should be at $900-1000 just based on inflation alone. That said, I believe that $1500 gold is not far off. Once it hits a level that hits my fancy, not being certain what that is yet, I will sell sell sell and not care what the ultimate high is. I just need to decide what level I will be a seller at, whether it is 1000, 1250, 1500, or higher will be the true question.

[PerryHall]

Looks like some profit taking this morning.

[kryptonitecomics]

This thread got me interested in taking the plunge and pick up a little bit of gold.....can you folks tell me if I paid a fair price for these?

 

The auction titles were a joke so some folks probably missed these that might have otherwise bid on them but I am still looking for opinions?

 

NGC MS69 #1

 

NGC MS69 #2

 

 

Update: Ouch I just saw the shipping costs......hopefully he will combine or else I probably didn't do so hot....

[bsshog40]

I don't think you did too bad. These type gold eagles have been slowly rising with the gold prices also. A few months ago, there value was about $105 if I'm not mistaken. They show $130 now. (PCGS guide)

[chinook]

Gold sux. Buy something useful like uranium. The middle east will be big users in the next century.

[astrostu]

Gold sux. Buy something useful like uranium. The middle east will be big users in the next century.

 

[michael]

gold will be higher much higher within the next two years or less

 

silver even moreso on a percentage wise basis

 

 

[BillJones]

Gold sux. Buy something useful like uranium. The middle east will be big users in the next century.

 

Sadly if the demand for uranium in the Middle East is as high as you predict, we won't have a "next century." At least the human race won't have a next century although I understand that cockroaches might be okay.