World Colonial

On 12/19/2022 at 6:40 PM, Sandon said:

   According to the "Redbook", this collectors' issue (identified by the "W" mintmark) had a mintage of only 2,481.  If you like to collect such issues, it's a "keeper".  After all, no more than another 2,480 collectors can own one at the same time.  

Just saw this thread.

Sure, buy it if the buyer likes it as a collectible. But while the mintage is low, this isn't a low number for any coin in close to comparable quality.  2481 also isn't a low enough number where this coin will ever be difficult to buy.

On 12/19/2022 at 6:40 PM, Sandon said:

I don't know whether there will ever be a great deal of demand for them.

My answer is "no".

This coin is included in the "Top 50" moderns book profiled in two old threads on this forum.  I never posted in either but will revisit the topic in the near future.  

On 8/19/2023 at 11:03 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Weren't most coins gold or silver in the U.S., let's say, pre-1900 ?  1860 ?

I'm just asking, not insinuating. 

Big difference between "most" and "all".  1/2C, cents, 2C, 3CN, and nickels weren't gold or silver.

On 8/15/2023 at 8:35 AM, Zebo said:

Maybe Australia

The lopsided proportion of Australian coins in holders are NCLT.  Last I checked, PCGS graded more than NGC for pre-decimal (one of the few) but it's a very low fraction of the total.

I have seen almost zero TPG coins in Noble Numismatics' auctions who I understand is the largest firm in the country.  Someone told me it's due to export requirements (which makes no sense to me) but doesn't seem prevalent there, except by financially motivated buyers.  I also suspect that at least a noticeable minority if not majority of NCLT is possibly owned by Americans, not necessarily locally.

On 8/15/2023 at 8:21 AM, Jason Abshier said:

Are these US bidders or European bidders I’m up against ? I have no clue 🤷‍♂️…  

Unless there has been a "meaningful" increase in TPG coins sold in Germany, predominantly likely not German bidders, though I will admit I can't explain any sudden change.  I haven't looked at German auctions lately and never looked at German dealer websites, only MA Shops or eBay in the past.

Germany is potentially somewhat different from other countries in the sense it's large enough where there is at least a potential resale market for the higher graded coins locally.  2nd or 3rd, after China.  I don't believe there is much of one but could be wrong about that.

This doesn't exist virtually anywhere else, outside of the countries already demonstrating a TPG preference: China, South Africa, and maybe Canada.

On 8/13/2023 at 4:11 PM, Henri Charriere said:

All well and good, I am going to suggest oh-so-politely, that the Grand Master pose his Topic question to Mr. Heritage, c/o Mark Feld, for a definitive response.  

In the past at YE, Heritage used to issue a press release where they broke out their auction volume measured by value for each major category they offer.  This included US and non-US coinage.  I didn't look for 2022 but you can find prior years (2019 or so at minimum) with an internet search.

This will confirm what I told you.

In checking their archives for my last post, I did notice that the count for the UK has gone up noticeably since my last search.  It was just under 40K the last time and now its 52K, about one in every eight "world" coins sold.   I also noticed the gap is closing in the overall ratio (with the US) but it's still lopsided, both by volume and value.  

A low number of countries account for a disproportionate pct. of "world" volume: UK, Germany, Canada, Mexico, China, and France in that order with the UK in the lead by a "country mile", almost twice Germany (including German states) which is marginally ahead of all other except for France. 40% to 45% of the total.

The archives don't provide an option to filter by sale date, and I didn't perform a manual count to try to quantify any change in distribution.  I know the ratio of US vs. "world" in aggregate has decreased somewhat over time, but that's all.

Heritage has Hong Kong based sales occasionally, so I assume much or maybe most of the more expensive Chinese and Hong Kong (colonial) coinage is consigned by locals since these sales commenced.  I also infer that Heritage receives major European collections in the Netherlands, any other offices they have there, or any agents if they have any.  Mostly though, that this coinage is consigned by and bought by US based collectors.

Note, the last paragraph is an inference, not "fact".

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm interested in Big Picture, Macro stuff.  The demographics of the hobby.....the number of people attending national, regional, and local shows....membership in the professional and trade associations.....do we know how many dealers there are ?....are local WE BUY GOLD/SILVER types increasing or decreasing (you now have publicly-traded pawn shops).....internet registered users, active bidders, sales and auctions.....and other stuff like this.

I'm interested in this too.

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Is the coin collecting hobby GROWING...SHRINKING....or STABLE.....is it sports cards, NFTs, or stamps ?

Also this

On 8/13/2023 at 9:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Everything I read is anectdotal or guestimates of an individual with little factual data.  I'd like to see some of the governing bodies and associations pick up the slack.

Yes, and anecdotal is all it will ever be.  No money in chasing this information. down, even assuming it is available.

On 8/9/2023 at 2:54 PM, zadok said:

...can definitely identify with ur reasons, especially on the US prices n preoccupation of creating specialty markets...i used to try to collect what everybody else wasnt collecting, but then everyone started collecting what i was collecting...the side collections often provide the most fun n challenges....

When I no longer work and assuming I am where I plan to be financially, I'll possibly change my perspective somewhat.

For new "side collections", I'd be open to it at some point if I had access to buy it in person instead of on-line.  I'd need to attend more coin shows which I can't now for personal reasons and wouldn't anyway if it came at the expense of my current coin budget.  This is to buy lower priced quality world coinage not in a TPG holder which I can inspect personally.

Never really answered the question of this topic.  Here are some reasons why I collect what I do versus something else:

One: When I resumed collecting in 1998, I declined to collect US coinage due to the relative price level.  The price level was much lower but so was my budget.  My financial resources have increased as my work career progressed but not necessarily faster than the price level for potential interests in US coinage.

Two: Too many coins are overpriced based upon any sensible evaluation of the collectible merits.  US coins are the most overpriced but not the only ones.

Three: With the internet, the vast majority of coins are too easy to buy and there is no challenge to it.  No, collecting by TPG label, CAC stickers, US invented specializations, or some other narrow criteria doesn't change it for me.

Four: My interest in a particular coin or series increases or decreases inversely to the price level, as I don't buy coins for "investment".  I dumped most of my South Africa collection for this reason (after prices rose substantially) and wished I sold most of what remains.

Five: I'm not interested in collecting "downward" with my primary collecting interest.  This is subjective but it's definitely tangible.  This varies by collector, but it is evident collectors think in this context generally.

Six: I don't actively buy for my "side" collections, much less add a new one.  I'll probably never complete my primary interest and regular buying for secondary interests or impulse purchases reduces my budget for my pillar collection.

Seven: I'm not interested in losing money on coins I don't like enough.  There are coins I used to own (since sold) which aren't very marketable.

On 8/8/2023 at 11:51 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

WC...maybe it wore down alot in 3 years because it IS gold, much softer than nickel, etc. ?

Someone else here will know better than I do.

I infer none of these coins circulated extensively even for this short period.

On 8/7/2023 at 10:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The actual grade is so low...and the devices so worn and flattened...unless a dealer knows he has a buyer for this coin to flip, I can't see who would pay that much.  Anybody who collects Saints and knows the 1930-S grade distribution must know for a bit more $$$ he/she can get a much much nicer-looking coin.

This is like being a Ferrari or Porsche collector....and including in your collection a car with multiple dents, dings, and accident hits. 

I don't know how the coin came to have its current appearance, but I don't see how it could have been though circulation.  FDR's executive order happened within three years, making it remote that any coin of this date could have circulated enough.  Maybe a pocket piece but it would take a lot of effort to wear it down this much.

The price difference between this one and all others is more than a "bit more", but I agree with your point.  

I know someone has to own every coin, but once it gets past "lunch money" amounts, I've never understood the thinking behind buying any low-quality unattractive coin when for "somewhat more", a (much) better example can be bought.  I suppose it's quantity over quality.  I don't subscribe to the US collecting obsession with one or slightly more TPG eligible label grade increments, but there is a difference with that versus looking at expensive unappealing coins.

On 8/7/2023 at 4:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Again....EF or AU vs. MS is one thing....I think that coin is easily affordable to a very wealthy collector but same collector can pay 2-5x as much and get a good-looking one.

If it wants a buyer among the masses, probably needs the price reduced to $15,000 - $25,000.  

JMHO.

Agree

I wouldn't want it at all, but your revised price range would probably find numerous buyers, assuming it doesn't actually sell at the current ask price or somewhere between your prices and the current ask.

On 8/7/2023 at 6:07 AM, Henri Charriere said:

My thoughts... somebody somewhere needs that DE badly for his low-ball set, but that aside, the bean, contrary to what z may crow, has shown itself in no way more concretely than it possibly can, to be a superfluous accessory. Gold is valuable but you couldn't pay ME one cent to own this. I'm dying to hear what @World Colonial has to say about this. 

PCGS Coin Facts records two sales of an MS-63 in 2022 (both at $200K+) with the prior sale before it @ $120K in 2020, also as a '63".  So, it's had a huge price increase.

I'd guess the seller is fishing for a whale, under the assumption that this is the only affordable example available for someone who considers it a "must have" for their set, whatever set that is.

PCGS Coin Facts estimates 50-75 known.  PCGS has graded 52 and NGC 21.  Presumably some duplicates.  Of these 73 grading events, 70 are MS, two AU-58, and this coin.  For the series, this is the only one below "Good" by PCGS while NGC has graded two.

As for my opinion on the coin, it's dreck.  I don't care that it's a five figure coin or quite scarce.  I understand the affordability challenge but don't believe the coin is as hard to buy as the Coin Facts data indicates.  It must have sold elsewhere (by dealers) more often.  If 50 exist, coins in this price range aren't actually that hard to buy, usually coming up for sale at least twice/year and probably more than that.

My opinion on the coin isn't just the quality or the price, though that's part of it.  It's that it looks totally out of place in any probable set of the series.  I'd never buy other very low quality coins of other series either, but at least these look more "normal" and it's not unusual for collectors to put together date, date variety, or type sets in this type of quality for silver or copper US coinage.

I'd also assume this coin would be difficult to sell later, for the price paid.

On 8/4/2023 at 3:10 AM, Teddy R said:

I've been doing some research on moderns and have come across a few eye openers in the census.

I guess there is a thing called lowball sets for whatever reason???

Yes, my explanation for it at least initially was amusement or to alleviate boredom. 

With the internet, most series are so easy or so much easier to complete.  It was done to create a challenge.  Now, these coins are worth more or proportionately noticeably more than "high" quality in some instances.  Definitely than slightly higher quality.

On 8/4/2023 at 5:09 AM, Hoghead515 said:

Im not talking about people who cherry pick top pops. Im talking about people slabbing pure junk spenders. Coins only worth face value. And some of the damaged common pocket change people think is errors. 

But there isn't any substantive difference with thousands of coins already in the population data at both services valued near or below the cost of grading.

This includes more than just coins currently available in circulation.

There isn't much graded fitting your description.  There is a lot of it fitting mine.

Same question could be asked.

Reminds me of South African collectors.  Look at the NGC Census "Details" data.  It's the result of their TPG induced coin mania, similar to the US 1989 bubble.  173 1897 "details" shillings.  220 1892 "details" pennies.  Yes, most are AU or UNC, but even at the price peak, probably not worth (much) more than the grading fee.  Shipping back to SA isn't cheap. 

Here is a bulk lot sold by Heritage, this one in NCS holders not even included in the NGC Census.

South Africa: Republic 82-Piece Lot of Certified Shillings NGC, ... | Lot #34360 | Heritage Auctions

On 7/26/2023 at 8:30 AM, zadok said:

...u r correct, probably 95%of all minted 1964 washington quarters r still out there n mostly in unc condition, ditto for the 1964 kennedy halves...to expand most of the SBA dollars, ike dollars, sac dollars n presidential dollar series r still in unc condition as well...if anyone was so inclined they could easily stockpile read hoard tens of thousands of each....

I was just using this as an example.  We've discussed this before where I think we are in agreement.

Most coins aren't visible to any individual or "the market" collectively, as most of the time only a low fraction is visible collectively.  It's either in collections, "change jars", or dispersed where no individual is aware of it.  That's why you see what you see at your local auction while others don't.

(Very) low survival rates do not usually = low number of survivors, at least not the way most collectors think of low.  The TPG population data for much older, higher valued, and lower mintage coins make it evident that the actual supply for more recent, lower valued, and higher mintage coins is usually (a lot) higher than what's visibly evident.  

On 7/26/2023 at 9:33 AM, cladking said:

While 1964 quarters have been melted in large quantities this does not apply to any of the old silver coins with a numismatic premium.  A very low percentage of '32-S quarters have been melted.  

32-S quarter is a key date, the mintage is low (by more contemporary standards but not actually) and the price is high enough where the TPG populations are more reflective of the actual supply in higher quality.  Obviously, more than a minimal pct haven't been melted, though more might have been in 1979/1980 than most believe when very low grades weren't worth very much.  I don't recall prices at the time.  Melt was about $9 at the $50 peak price.

On 7/24/2023 at 8:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You're saying that ALL or VIRTUALLY ALL small legal coinage in the last 60 years still exists ?  Wasn't some taken out and destroyed over time ?

No.

In the example of the 1964 quarter, I think so, unless it was large scale melted.  Not literally all of it, but a much higher pct than is evident to any of us, no matter who that may be.

I think most coins are (a lot) more common than most collectors seem to think, whether in a specific quality or generally.  The sentiments in this thread are exaggerated, but not unusual.  I encountered it on the South African coin forum, all the time.  I've encountered it here and the PCGS forum occasionally too.

The internet has exposed this as being generally true.  I've also provided numerous examples.  

As another one, one Heritage listing for the 1796-1797 half dollar references Amato's book where he attempted to itemize every known example.  The listing also states more (a few) have been identified since.  This is usually at least a mid-five figure coin, so if even one more previously not generally known shows up, it should be apparent that the potential supply for somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all circulation coins ever struck is noticeably more too.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

He was also talking about small denomination U.S. coins, including 1950's and 1960's coins.  If you can find it, it's Numismatic News....January 13, 2010 by Paul Green.  I'll try and find the link.

I can't prove most 1933-1964 US coins exist in very large supply in one place, but it's not meaningful.

Take the 1964 or any slightly older quarter.  This coin presumably didn't circulate hardly at all, so unless it was mass melted, most of it should exist in "high" quality.

Yes, practically all of it, whether it is visible to the market or not.  It has to be somewhere.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:40 PM, cladking said:

Paul Green reported on a great number of world moderns that are highly elusive.  He didn't report as much on countries where the demand could soar as the economy created more and more middle class with the finances to build collections.  So far most of the explosive growth has been in countries with lots of new collectors but in the longer term there will be countries where the coins are just that scarce.  

Once again, limited collecting isn't caused by a lack of affluence.  It's irrelevant whether this person said it as it's factually false.

This is so obvious it's hard to believe it even needs to be stated.  On one occasion, I estimated the market value of the "better" South African Union and ZAR coinage.  These are their "classics".  This was five years ago or somewhat earlier, at most.

The result?

My guess is $30MM to $50MM.  At the 2011 peak, maybe $200M.  Yes, for all of it, except patterns which are mostly apparently unavailable.  That's a rounding error in the context of the financial market, real estate, and liquid "wealth".

With the Bolivian Republic decimals I collect, one moderately affluent collector could buy up the entire supply by themself.  yes, one person.   That's how small these "markets" are.

The biggest mystery is why so many believe this logical fallacy.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:34 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

40 and 50 and 60 and 70 years ago.....there was NOTHING else to do, besides play baseball or go bowling or whatever. 

No internet...no social media...no video games (!).  Everybody I knew collected baseball cards or coins or stamps.  Or 2 or all 3 of them.  NOBODY I knew didn't collect at least one of them.

Today, most of the youngsters I know don't collect ANY of them. 

Yes, I agree.

This has been one my primary arguments against the claims in this thread.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

At the risk of showing my confusion on all the back-and-forth.....can't we assume with bequests, estate sales, and a rising price that should attract hidden hoards...if we haven't seen it by now, chance are BIG QUANTITIES -- not talking about isolated coins -- are NOT forthcoming ?

Paul Green said as much in Numismatic News a bit over a decade ago.  Not that hoards wouldn't be forthcoming, but the LIKELIHOOD of future 1908 No Motto Wells Fargo or 1983 El Salvadore/MTB Hoards coming out are unlikely.  He also mentioned small denomination hoards over the decades and rumours of folks with tens of thousands of them like the 1908-S VDB cent.

I'd love to post the article but I can't attach PDFs here !!! 

You're referring to a specific coin or series, and one that isn't even representative of (US) collecting.

Most collectors or non-collectors will never own a (US) gold coin in their entire life.  It's above their budget level.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:32 PM, cladking said:

There is insufficient supply for a "mass market.

It is just this simple.  The last of the available supply is disappearing through sale or tarnish and the demand continues to grow year after year.  The current situation is unsustainable.  

Yes, it's unsustainable because of all your premises which have nothing to do with how virtually anyone collects, right?

In some instances, you don't even collect with this imaginary behavior you attribute to imaginary collectors and fictional dealers.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:29 PM, cladking said:

I love anecdotal evidence but this is more akin to hearsay until such time as they provide some sort of corroboration that these are unlikely to be mint set rolls.  

Talking about a double standard.

Their claims are hearsay but yours aren't.?

What difference does it make whether it's a mint set or not?  No one claimed it's one of your "gems" or even stated a specific quality.  Not that hardly anyone cares about it aside from you.

The two posters I identified aren't ignorant.