World Colonial

April to my recollection. Maybe twice per year, can't remember. I don't see much future for smaller ones, though it obviously depends upon the quality of dealer turnout. I can see collectors wanting to view coins directly, but to a point only. It's not like most most dealers have compelling inventory to make it worth going out of their way. Also for the monthly ones, probably mostly the same inventory most of the time. I went to the monthly Atlanta a few times, maybe 30 years ago. 35 tables to my recollection with not worth much buying, and this was before I gave up buying US.

I would like to go to the Dalton (GA) show at least once but just never prioritized it. It's a large regional one.

I don't think it makes sense either, but I don't collect the coins most do. I attended the February ANA in Atlanta (I live there), covered all the tables of interest to me in about two hours the first day (took a vacation day to do it) and bought one coin. It's a "keeper" for sure for what I collect but there was no point in returning again. I intentionally got there at the opening the first day to improve my chances of finding something and consider myself fortunate to get it. Usually, I can only find coins for my one of my sideline collections and I'm not about to travel for that. For the overwhelming percentage of collectors, it makes no sense to travel at all given their collecting budget unless they make it a vacation. Some do it to visit with collectors they know but I'm not spending one cent on that either. My vacation money is already committed elsewhere and my coin money is for coins, not traveling to coin shows.

Anecdotally even before COVID, it's my impression that attendance is down because there are too many coin shows.

They can do that by accepting paid advertising and sponsorships which they already do. I was only speculating, as I don't know specifics. Current collecting culture in the US cannot be totally separated from the business side, as the price level cannot be sustained without it. Concurrently, I don't believe that many dealers and their customers really like collecting that much either, or else there wouldn't be so much exaggeration on collecting aspects which are insignificant.

Sounds like they need to learn the meaning of internal controls if they don't and implement better ones if inadequate..

I'm talking about using the ANA to promote collecting as a business while mostly or entirely ignoring the hobby aspects which is what collecting is supposed to be about. If collector hobbyists aren't going to support the ANA, then if it's going to last, it's going to get taken over by the financial promoters. I am partially speculating here, as I am not a member and could be completely wrong about it. My assumption is that most of the endowment is previously donated collections. I'd be surprised if it has much of a cash endowment but haven't looked at the financials and could be wrong about that also.

No, particularly since I am not a member. But combine "disregard of education and guidance" with "finances are in very bad shape" sounds like the potential to go in the direction of becoming an industry financial shill. That's what most important to both the buyers and sellers of the most expensive and prominent US coins anyway, I also suspect it's what the "hobby's" financial promoters also want out of the ANA too. No, I am not just a cynic.

With the US Mint, the result of their monopoly. Keep on doing more of the same until it results in complete failure.

Assuming it is even genuine, it will have to be identified from the design, legend and assayers. This will provide a date range, not a specific date. I don't have access to my copy of Sedwick's "Practical Book of Cobs" but someone else here might.

The current situation is what happens with perpetual inflation while the customer's income mostly stagnates. It's a similar problem with the TPG business model where they have to increase grading fees even as the price level stagnates which makes it uneconomical to submit a greater proportion of coins. There is a third option you left out. They can discontinue a product or the product line entirely.

Sounds like the same types of coins sold by dealers in the "budget" section of the conventions I have attended (ANA, Long Beach). The cut-off was $300 last I remember. I can see some of these coins being collected outside the US, at a discount to the US price per your example.

What was the price range for the US coins you saw? What kinds of coins?

I think this is representative of a noticeable proportion, now and previously. It's also why even when mintages are supposedly "low", it's far more than the actual collector base who really want it. Even among those not buying it for profit, it's noticeably either a sideline collection or bought out of habit.

I'd say the collecting of US proof sets by those living elsewhere is right near zero. If there is any evidence of "meaningful" collecting of US coinage elsewhere at all, I have never seen it. I haven't performed a comprehensive search but what I see is mostly generic pre-1933 gold and circulated mostly ungraded coins in auctions. The collector material is worth respectable money on occasion but it appears to have been acquired a long time ago when coins were much cheaper. I don't look at dealer inventory or eBay listings for low priced items. I agree with you that collectors disproportionately prefer and collect their own coinage. Concurrently, US proof sets are going to be an even worse value proposition for collectors anywhere else.

I wouldn't bother with die varieties. I'd be really surprised if the number who bother with it is even noticeable. The series is too large and expensive to collect in this format.

Some for registry sets but most probably from bulk submitters, dealers and telemarketers.

I have only looked selectively at mintages but not for anything recent. I'd guess the gap has decreased noticeably as US annual sales have collapsed over the last several decades but it's still huge. US annual sets are a lousy value, even before this price increase. Mints don't control all their costs but that doesn't change the value proposition to the collector who doesn't care about that. If you want to see better value, take a look at mintages and prices of older world sets. I own a few. One is the Canada dual dated (1953-2003) Golden Jubilee with the Mary Gillick portrait struck in silver. It's very common with 30,000 but can be bought for about $75 and comes in a nice presentation case. Don't own it but the Canada 1911-2011 set commemorating the centenary of the 1911 SP dollar sells for about $200 in a wooden case. It's silver, has the popular King George V design and a mintage of 6,000. I also own a gem 1974 South Africa short set (8 coins). I paid about $300 for it because it's graded (mostly PCGS), all but one are CAM or DCAM and six are 67 or 68. A raw set in the original case but still nice is maybe about $30. Mintage is 8000. "Low mintage" for a US set is like 1950 and earlier. The US is one of the few countries that struck proof sets regularly but where others did, the mintages in the 20th century during this period are frequently in the hundreds or less. There aren't very many really common ones. Britain is one exception since these were only struck intermittently, like the 1953 which I recall as being 40,000. However, the proportion surviving in better quality seems to be relatively low and really nice sets aren't cheap.

I'd still rather buy the Swiss set with a mintage of 2500 at double the price. Not only will the value hold up better but the designs are also superior to most collectors. The quality difference is just an added bonus.

No doubt US Mint products will outsell others even with much higher mintages at the same price . But in the secondary market longer term, I equally do not believe that 2020 issues (and presumably later years) will hold even the same proportionate value versus recent years. I don't see any evidence that the buyers (notice I didn't say just collectors) really like it that much. Let the death spiral you described begin.

I agree with your reply to my post, on the economics. I don't follow the pricing of any new releases, US or otherwise. But what I will say is that to remain competitive, the US Mint cannot generally charge (roughly) equivalent prices because the mintages are so much higher. There are more collectors of US coinage, but I don't believe the difference in the base is proportionate though I haven't checked this either except very selectively. To my knowledge though, mintages for the more preferred NCLT like Britannia and Libertad proofs are (or were) less than 10,000 (a lot less on occasion) while for ASE a "key date" like the 2019-S ERP (a gimmick coin not even bought by all ASE collectors) is 30,000 and the regular proof is hundreds of thousands. It might be somewhat more favorable for annual proof and mint sets but I doubt much.

Other than financially, I don't really care. I either like the coin or I don't and will pay a price I am comfortable with based upon how much I like it.

Exactly Relative value is always changing but the difference in the last 10+ years is that due to unprecedented reckless speculation and overvaluation in every major asset class from the greatest mania in the history of civilization, practically everyone is forced to either participate in a financial casino or financially bleed to death from NIRP, ZIRP and currency debasement.

Of course bankers hated it, because they love fractional reserve lending and the lack of financial discipline that goes with it. They also love deposit insurance now because it also institutionalizes unsafe and unsound banking practices which to this point has allowed banks to get away with excessive leverage and lending to deadbeat borrowers who would never get a loan in an economic system with stable money. Perpetual inflation allows banks to lend to deadbeats who get bailed by cheating savers out of their savings. These deadbeats who couldn't get loans in the past didn't miraculously become credit worthy borrowers because current bankers are so much smarter. Bullion speculators are exactly that, speculators. They don't care how they make their profits. The ones who care are mostly average middle class individuals who are trying to preserve what they have, not participate in the modern casino we call a financial system. I'm not a "metal bug". I equally know that this fiat ponzi financial system we have is destined for a catastrophic system failure once confidence evaporates due to moral hazard mostly created by government policy.

My inference also. I have not read up on it but it's my understanding that modern counterfeits use tungsten to fool the Fisch wallets which is why they came out with the "ringer". Different sound for different metals apparently. I still intend to buy this "ringer" but have not got around to it. High metal prices bring out more and better criminals. Not aware it's a problem for silver yet but it could or will be if the dreams of the metal bugs ever come true.