World Colonial

Probably my 1770 NGC AU-53 Peru 4R. It's the coin I would be most interested in owning if it wasn't mine now and I could acquire it from my current collection.

I presume there was sufficient coverage of FDR's executive order, leading it up to it and the announcement. Otherwise, there is no reason to believe that hardly anyone gave a hoot about whether any of these coins where available as a collectible. Not actually knowing, my suspicion is that a noticeable proportion (if not majority) of Americans at the time (before and during the Depression) never even saw a DE in their entire life, much less owned one.

I like both but it is a better design than the 1840-1873.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to derail your thread but not sure how to address the topic if it is going to have any practical impact.

What purpose would this serve and how do you envision this would operate? Most professional certifications and designations have the effect of making it more difficult for new entrants to compete against incumbents (the equivalent of a medieval trade guild) and duping an ignorant public with a false sense of confidence. (For the record, I have three for my profession.) I consider certification and professional designation requirements in the current labor market to be one of if not the worst developments in my adult lifetime. It needlessly makes it more difficult to enter or change job fields or start an independent business. It's a gold mine for those who are sanctioned to grant the designation and the subsequently required CPE (a total scam if there ever was one) but that's a different thing entirely.

My inference from all accounts I read on coin forums and Coin Week is that the Mint's management would rather not bother with collectors and collector coinage. Congress passes legislation requiring them to do it but it's not something they actually want to do. They do not view it as core to the Mint's mission and not being collector's themselves (overwhelmingly), view it as a distraction or nuisance. If this is a reasonably accurate description, none of it should be a surprise.

Probably Per our prior post exchange, it's unlikely there are (anywhere near) enough actual collectors to absorb the supply as a collectible, substantially or mostly as a substitute "investment". 175,000 for each of the five is not low. It's extremely common. Comparing this mintage to the supply of real Morgan dollars, the two just sold are already as or more expensive than numerous date/MM combinations in grades up to MS-66. Are these two (soon to be five) really more interesting to collectors than Morgan dollars actually struck for circulation? How many individual date/MM Morgan dollars are owned by anywhere near 175,000 collectors? Same line of reasoning for the "low" mintage ASE. The mintage is low but the number of survivors in this quality concurrently make all of it more common than over 99% of all coins ever struck.

Shorter term, your sentiments seem to be accurate and I do not disagree. This is why I chose not to collect US coinage when I resumed collecting in 1998. I had a more limited budget back then but even with a bigger one now, it's not like I can afford much more that I will actually want to buy which I like much less than what I buy now anyway. It also isn't mostly due to quality since I don't care much about hair splitting differences which I consider trivial but are an obsession in US collecting.

Just checked eBay sold listings. Up to $325 for the "CC".

If this becomes a continuing series, expect the same gimmicks currently used for the ASE to extract as much revenue as possible from the buyer (notice I did not state collector) base. I also expect it to take "share of wallet" at the expense of the ASE. How much will depend upon the product mix, issue price and mintage. There may or will be sufficient increased demand for both, but not with the current mintage for the 2021. I consider it unlikely that any single classic Morgan or Peace dollar date/MM is owned by anywhere near 175,000 collectors.

I don't know whether it will fall below issue price but there is no direct substitute for the Buffalo dollar. It's the only crown sized coin with this design. Circulating Morgan dollars are an alternative to the 2021's and the novelty will be substantially diluted if it becomes a continuing series.

Totally correct. The coin is a relative novelty but not that interesting to more than a low proportion of the collector base except at a nominal price. If the reasoning in the prior post reflected actual behavior, then the price level across the board would be much higher, since practically every coin will be "scarce" under this reasoning. The only reason any US NCLT above a nominal price sells for current premiums is due to a substantial speculative component. There are unlikely anywhere near enough collectors who can both afford to pay current prices and actually want it as a collectible. With these Morgan dollars, most will want one coin where the supply is at least 175,000 for each mint mark. Many real Morgan dollars sell for the same or less in grades of MS-64 and maybe MS-65, especially if I read correctly that these are selling for $200 (or more) on eBay right now.

It would not surprise me if in the vicinity of 50% of the collector base doesn't own a coin at or above $85. This may seem odd to those who post here or the PCGS forum but shouldn't be to those who treat coin collecting as an alternate consumption expense, not an "investment". I didn't have a chance to respond earlier, but to the point of the OP, these two will be somewhat interesting to a noticeable minority of the collector base, but not as a continuing series and likely only near the issue price. As other posts have pointed out, you can buy a Morgan or Peace dollar which actually did or was at least made for circulation, for the same or less. This as opposed to a bullion round (that's what a .999 fine "coin" actually is) selling for a big premium to spot.

By my definition of collector, a noticeable proportion do not and likely never will own a coin at this price point, adjusted for future purchasing power/inflation.

I reads it may become an annual on-going series. If it happens, I expect it to take "share of wallet" from the ASE.

I certainly don’t trust eBay sellers asking stupid money prices

I don't buy many coins anymore and seldom sell. I used to do both a lot more but both what I see and read about eBay indicates that it's not nearly as good of an auction venue anymore. I see mostly fixed price listings. It's not the primary reason I changed what I collect but even if I collected something else, it's noticeable enough to change my buying behavior. I'm not interested in buying a larger number of predominantly lower priced coins I don't even like that much and then taking a noticeable "haircut" at resale. This is my description of most collectors, though they may not admit it or aren't aware of it until they (try to) sell.

Yes, volume discounts for bulk submitters. My costs would be lower if not for the conservation but postage both ways has also increased a lot. It can be reduced somewhat with higher volume submissions but I don't buy enough coins to do that anymore. When the coins come back from conservation, I'll some or all back with an additional group for grading.

What you are describing is part of the financialization of "collecting". Since I infer you have never submitted, let me give you an indication of the cost. This afternoon, I'm sending my first submission to NGC in several years. Two coins under the World "Standard" tier @ $38 each and six coins for conservation, one which I have requested to be regraded. (It appears to have developed a spot in the holder.) For these eight coins, about $400 to grade three and conserve five. I want to see the conserved coins first before I have it graded because any "details" coins are possibly worth less in the holder. But if I had the five graded now to avoid duplicate postage, add another $110 @ $22 each under the World "economy" tier. So basically, in the vicinity of $600 when the coins are worth $4000 to $5000. Without conservation, still around $400. In 2005 when I first submitted, World "economy" was $15 with a 10% discount for Collectors Society members. That's a 60%+ increase. Somewhat less for World "standard". Yes, I know TPG expenses have gone up but most coin prices have increased a lot less (if at all) during this time. I don't submit as many coins as I did partly due to this reason and I don't think I am an outlier either. The point I am making is that it's a noticeable proportion of the value of the coins most collectors buy. The coins they own aren't going to be appreciating substantially either anyway. Very few collectors proportionately own Saints (or coins in that price range) as a collectible.

It's per coin.

Can you elaborate on this extract from your last post? A PNG dealer where I live (ATL Metro) told me Heritage changed their fee structure to discourage consigning lower value coins; his claim below $250. I don't know if this is true but this makes some sense if the margin on it is much lower. The second sentence is exactly my prior point in discussing this subject. The problem for the TPG business model when comparing it to auctions is that, a coin can and needs to be sold repeatedly. Conversely, resubmitting the same coin over and over again is a complete waste of money. With the some coins since the "hobby" has been financialized, it's become necessary to do it due to changing grading standards, "+" grades and maybe some other factor but this is purely financial. I already know that NCLT represents a noticeable percentage of volume but that's low margin. Volume of potential US classics of any meaningful value? I read conflicting accounts. Going by PCGS Coin Facts, it's still noticeable but doesn't seem material for TPG revenue. Lower priced US classics it's mostly a complete waste, especially if dated prior to 1955 with the higher fee. Same for US moderns. World coinage? The volume doesn't exist and most collectors outside the US don't like it, at least yet. The overwhelming percentage isn't worth enough to make it worthwhile and the overwhelming probability is it's going to stay that way. Ancients is even less volume than world.

Do they provide an authenticity guarantee on ancients? My understanding is that they don't. I don't collect ancients but don't see much point to paying to have the coin in the slab without it. If the marketability is really that much better without it, not sure why. As for fee increases generally, I have said for a long time that the TPG business is eventually going to mostly price itself out of its market. Pricing has purportedly improved recently but I don't believe it will last (if it even applies now) to enough lower priced coins where volume will grow. I expect it to shrink over time as an increasingly poorer collector base = (mostly) stagnant market = grading fees exceeding or representing a disproportionate percentage of the coins most collectors submit.

Other have answered the first question better than I can. As to the second, it has nothing to do with the US Mint's mission. It's up to collectors to do that.

To clarify my comments, this coin is likely more common than the 1874CC dime (10,817) due to the lopsided difference in the mintage but I doubt in better quality. The dime has an estimated 80 survivors per Coin Facts with four or five MS. My coin will have more than 80, though almost certainly not as many MS or in better grades. Similar idea versus the 1871CC and 1872CC which have more estimated survivors but the same or fewer estimated MS. In Yonaka's survey, 23% of the 133 Peru 1R (for all dates) were also holed.

The likely reason it took a long time to appreciate is because it was already very expensive for its availability when you bought it. It listed for $335 in my 1965 Red Book, though I do not know if the prices were actual retail. In the 1960's it was already a very common coin just as it is now. With the 2021 Morgan and Peace dollars, the survival rate will be about 100% as struck for as long as it will matter to anyone reading my post. If the mintage will be 175,000 as I read, it may sell for noticeably more than issue price upon release but is unlikely to move up noticeably from that. It's also far too common.