World Colonial

It depends upon someone's view of collecting. Overwhelmingly, the sentiments I read both on coin forums and in the numismatic press is a preference for higher prices. It's not even close and it's worse among the dealer community who pretends to be promoting the hobby when both common sense and their public sentiments better demonstrate it's irrelevant to them. I can understand a desire by collectors to recover their cost (no one wants to lose money) but that's not what I infer. I realize there is no "optimal" price level to satisfy everyone or even most. Conversely, I don't see how further financializing collecting above what already exists can be considered a positive for the hobby, only for the business side. If you are familiar with financial behavior, the evidence shows that prices in an "investment" market increase, it's more desirable. Rising prices are "good" while falling prices are "bad". This is the same sentiment I infer in financially motivated buyers toward coin collecting. For goods and services, it's what the economic textbooks state. Demand is inverse to price. That's how I view collecting. The more expensive a coin is, the less I want to buy it. It's less desirable to me, not more. That's why I don't collect most of the coins I initially did upon resuming collecting in 1998. Everything is more expensive, but the prices don't reflect the merits as a collectible, in my subjective opinion. This was the initial reason I didn't bother collecting any US coinage, as it's totally uncompetitive with world and ancients. If I were to collect other coins in addition to those I do now, I'd be spending noticeable multiples of what the coins previously cost, usually hundreds and maybe thousands for something which should sell for nominal prices, except to those who believe that every "desirable" coin should sell for "noticeable" or "high" prices. Cumulatively, this would be at least in the five figures for coins I don't really want. There is also a limit to how far "downward" a collector is willing to go which everyone who I have ever read expressing your sentiments ignores. The collector who is priced out of what they used to buy is supposed to find what they can still afford interesting, even though the one making this claim would never collect it as their primary interest.

The registry number seems too high, unless by this you mean set collectors. Maybe there are this many. If you remember my analysis from a few months ago, it is the #1 series for highest budget collectors, per the Heritage archives. This is my assumption also. I'd guess there are in the vicinity of 100,000 who collect the series in some format. Either the entire series (which is large and expensive to most collectors) or some sub-group, like one per date or all dates from one of the mints. There must also be a large number of impulse buyers, who aren't collecting by type. This is the probably the majority, for the common dates. Still, the most common dates like the 81-S must have in the vicinity of 1MM going by the current TPG counts. Even with my guesstimate of 2MM active collectors, it's unlikely in the vicinity of 50% own any single Morgan dollar date, very unlikely.

I agree, but the problem for actual collecting is decreasing affordability for the more typical collector. To my recollection, I don't recall anyone else ever (not even once) bringing this up here or on any coin forum where I posted. Most posters are lot more interested in a higher price level. I believe common MS-63 and similar Morgan dollars are mostly owned in volume as "investments" by financially motivated buyers. The coins are far too common to be mostly owned by set and type collectors or even as impulse purchases. Concurrently, this is a "staple" coin of US collecting and I think it's important that coins like it remain affordable to most buyers. "Affordable" is relative of course but my assumption is that at least 50% of the collector base has an annual budget of $500 or less. A noticeable percentage in this group probably do not own $100 coins. Eliminating this and other similar coins as an option due to budget constraints will make collecting less interesting to them.

I'm making a few assumptions First, that the intent is to eventually convert a noticeable proportion of these new collectors into other coinage. If it succeeds at scale, that's how it could happen. Otherwise. I don't see that there is enough money in the effort, as I presume most volume will occur under bulk submissions. Remember also that "at scale" doesn't have to be very large if it increases demand in a particular area "noticeably". For my primary collecting interest (which is unlikely from this source), one new collector outbidding me is "noticeable". Second, it also depends upon the source for most of the volume. My assumption is predominantly NCLT. 1982 is a rather odd cut-off, unless it's intentional to coincide with US modern commemoratives and (presumably) for world coinage series such as the Panda and Mexican Libertad. It's my inference that most collectors of NCLT who transition to other coinage buy equivalent "classics" including Morgan dollars, generic pre-1933 US gold, and world coin equivalents. Looking at the TPG population data, the bulk of the volume for circulating coinage is proofs, not business strikes. I presume substantial buying of Ike dollars occurred from marketing promotions but someone else will know about that. These buyers are probably more likely to transition to US classics normally collected by the broader collector base.

1916-D Mercury dime went from about $700 to something like $1200. 09-S VDB cent in MS-63 BN from about $1200 to $2000 though this one is from 2016. 1921 Peace dollar, I can't remember but it's been covered on this forum since last year to my recollection and it was "noticeable". All three of these coins are very common and the 16-D in G-4 would be "dreck" if it was any other date. Common Morgan doilars I think sell in the $100 range in MS-63 which I consider ridiculous for such common coins.

Anyone with an IQ of 100 or higher should have no problem comprehending any grading system (US or otherwise) I have encountered. Or maybe this is part of the problem?

Depends upon someone's definition of "good". I don't want any increase in financially motivated buying. This is a likely outcome of this practice, more financialization of the "hobby". I don't buy coins to intentionally lose money but never became a collector to diversity my portfolio. Since COVID started in 2020, I've read from numerous sources about the rising price level. I'd consider modestly rising prices ok but not some of the price spikes we've had since then. 1921 Peace dollars, common Morgan dollars, 1916-D G-4 Mercury dimes, and MS-63 09-S VBD cents have all increased significantly and that's just a short list.

Been gone from here for a while and catching up. Someone may have said this later, but I'll find out soon enough. It's a revenue generator or intended to be one. That's it. A private equity firm bought them, and this is one option to generate incremental ROI to make it pay. None of this has anything to do with collecting. It's a business and I get it. Said so on the PCGS forum where the majority seem to think it's a good idea. The real dream of the TPGs is to change to another grading scale and convince enough coin owners (notice I didn't say collectors) to resubmit to maintain marketability at current levels. It's somewhat similar to the complaints I've read about CAC though I consider the two different. For "collecting", it's another option of attracting a new group of predominantly financially motivated buyers to inflate the price level as much as possible. This is my inference why a plurality on the PCGS forum thinks it's a fantastic idea. They believe it will maximize return on their "investment". Will this work, either as a parallel system or replacement? I'm not spending a dime to get my coins regraded now or later, that's for sure. Fortunately, I don't collect any US coins, so it will matter a lot less. It's this type of practice that affirms my decision not to collect US coinage, as if I needed one.

1. Sesquicentennial half 2. Lafayette dollar 3. Isabela quarter 4. Stone Mountain half

Claiming most people are going to be poorer (my actual claim) doesn't remotely correlate to what you think I said.

I don't believe this and if you understood what I have written before, you should know it. I used the example of the CHF to contradict your claim of any country having any supposed "defense" to prevent negative outcomes. There is no such defense, as the only "tools" any country has are the same ones any others have and had in the past. The effectiveness of these "tools" is ultimately contingent upon collective market participant psychology, as your example illustrated. I'm also aware that there is no specific debt level to trigger a crisis of any sort. I know it because I concurrently know that these events aren't caused by any supposed "fundamentals" but market participant psychology. You are the one who holds the almost universal erroneous conventional belief of "fundamental" causality, not me. I haven't also said that any "collapse" is imminent either. I know the fundamentals are a lot worse than you will ever admit but don't expect this now or in the immediate future. Of course, it also depends upon what anyone means by "collapse". In your example of the GBP, it didn't take a collapse in the relative FX value to drive this currency out of the predecessor currency arrangement. That's what applies with this subject of the Euro and monetary union. The monetary union can break apart in whole or in part without a "collapse". Given the political environment, I can anticipate it will be resisted vigorously which will ultimately trigger very negative "blowback" (another psychological outcome) but this is another thing entirely. I haven't said a thing about this subject in any prior post. But as with anything else, there is a limit to how long the US will be able to consume above its means at the rest of the world's expense. A segment of the population in the rest of the world will ultimately be poorer in the future for agreeing to this arrangement, since these currency units will obviously never be redeemed at anything close to the value in the original exchange.

Given the actual fundamentals which are much worse than you will ever admit, it can happen a lot faster than you think with a change in sentiment. Yes, the countries to which you refer have wealthier economies to mismanage but ultimately since all financial values are psychological and not the result of any fundamentals, a change in sentiment is more than sufficient to "blow up" the Eurozone. Look at the Swiss National Bank. In 2011, they pegged the CHF to the Euro at 1.20. Considering they were attempting to suppress the value of their national currency where they control the supply, if any price manipulation should have worked "forever", this should have been it. They capitulated anyway. I don't need to explain why they gave up the peg, the fact is they abandoned it. This subject is no different, despite that I know that none of the EU crats want it to happen. There is nothing like adversity to create discord and division, no matter how much unity appears on the surface. We're talking about human beings, not robots.

I know who he is, an establishment apologist. I've read his commentary and like him, but he's pro-EU in everything of his I have ever read. When I said rates will "blow out" later, I wasn't just referring to Italian debt or the weaker member states. I'm referring to (practically) everywhere and this includes the US too. No one wants to hear this because it's contrary to their personal preference. When rates blow out in countries like Germany, what's the ECB going to do then? It's one thing for these gimmicks to work when rates are low in the Eurozone "core" and the problem is contained to the "periphery". It's another entirely when rates "blow out" everywhere. There aren't any "wizards behind the curtain" at the ECB any more than there are at the FRB.

Compare PCGS Coin Facts estimates to the TPG data. Maybe most of the most expensive (and highest quality) coins you follow are now graded but I don't follow it that closely.

This makes sense in that it supports the variance between the TPG data and PCGS Coin Facts. I consider Coin Facts usually too low (for the coins I have looked at) but it's often noticeably higher than the TPG data. There is also a common perception about the TPG data being overstated due to duplicates. Yes, I know it is, but this doesn't concurrently mean most of the better quality coinage has been submitted. As usual, it just depends. This week, I was looking on Heritage. Early US federal silver and Capped Bust this time. Much of the better coins is their virtual bourse where they often have multiples of the highest graded coins, sometimes five MS of the same date for draped bust dimes or half dimes (can't remember which one). If only 15 1802 half dimes are in a TPG holder now while the estimate is more than twice this number with this being a five figure coin at minimum, we can be almost certain there is a lot of most everything else out there.

It depends if the asset mania is over as I believe. (The one which most don't think exists.) If the credit cycle from 1981 ended in 2020 which I believe it did, interest rates are destined to "blow out" later this decade. If the ECB persists, then Euro will be at risk of crashing. Eurozone fundamentals are bad, worse than the US. I expect this new policy to be abandoned before the decade is over.

The ECB recently agreed to a modified form of QE where it will no longer expand its balance sheet but instead only buy the debts of weaker member states to keep spreads from "blowing out". That's the plan anyway. The reality? It won't work for very long, as it creates the perverse incentive for states like Italy to expand their budgets infinitely. This is another form of "can kicking". My prediction continues to be that many (and maybe most) of the 19 member states will leave the common currency with the remainder creating a United States of Europe.

Even before TPG starting in 1986 after which more sets were broken up, there weren't many pre-1936 full sets available. The 1936 set is hardly cheap, but it's a lot cheaper than any set dated earlier even without the gold coinage. I presume this is the reason for the Red Book format.

Yonaka's reference doesn't have much on counterfeit detection. It's a topic I recommended to him for future updates on all three books of his I own. On the attached image, it's consistent with XF+. I think it's a nice coin, but I don't know the current prices which might have moved up noticeably since 2020. Sometime shortly before or at the beginning of the pandemic, an eBay seller had a 1763 Mexico 8R NGC AU-58 for $895. A very nice coin for a very good price, but I didn't buy it because I had a lot of expenses at the time and I almost never use funds from savings to buy coins, only out of current income. This was cheap for the time but now a comparable one is $1500+. It was the ideal type coin and I should have bought it.

I have about 1000 CAD in currency notes that I brought back with me from my trips visiting my brother. If buying in volume, I'd want to buy local government debt. I haven't looked hard but haven't seen it as an option from a US financial institution. I've owned the single currency ETFs in the past but those contain futures contracts and don't pay interest. Now that CAD interest rates are finally noticeable, if I owned a meaningful amount, I'd buy CAD treasuries. Back in 2002, I asked my broker (Schwab) about it, but they told me the minimum amount was $10MM. I don't have that much spare change lying around. I'm only interested in holding in a Treasury Direct account equivalent and I have never read anywhere that any other country offers it. I thought I read it for Canada once but haven't seen it since.

Most of my auction purchases have been from US or Spanish sources. Same for eBay and all my dealer direct. Heritage is my largest single source with 14 but only four coins I rank as among the most difficult to buy. I have a want list I would like to buy, compiled mostly from catalogs (Sellshopp and Patterson), Gilboy's plate coins, and the TPG pops. A few sold prior to 2010 before I started looking diligently but mostly, I'm assuming that the same collector owns it even after up to 34 years or it sold privately.

Yes, I noticed. If I were to buy it in quantity though, I'd also want to be able to obtain the benefit from the rising rates in those countries which isn't usually possible using US sources. It requires buying locally. The most likely currency I would buy is the Canadian dollar, because I might live there later in life at least part time.

I've never found much of anything at the five or six ANA shows I attended and never been to NYINC. What I did find wasn't in the coins I primarily collect either, only my secondary collections. I also don't think I would find much of anything. It's possible some dealer had a coin I wasn't aware of but it's a low probability. Most likely exceptions I know are Mike Dunnigan (who specializes in Mexico) and Mr. Eureka who posts on the PCGS forum, as neither have a website. I have bought coins on eBay but only one (currently at NGC now) that I would consider better quality. Here is a breakdown of where I sourced these coins. Total population = 92 Auction direct: 47 eBay - full time dealer: 15 eBay - collector: 18 Dealer direct: 12 Additional notes: There is some overlap between dealer direct and eBay dealers. I bought it from the same source. Some of the eBay collectors are regular sellers, most probably though I didn't attempt to verify. Of the 12 dealer direct purchases, all but two are from well-known sources. The vast majority of my better coins were bought at auction or from full time dealers (eBay or direct). So, to conclude, while I haven't pursued using dealers for direct purchase from collectors, I think I'm covering all the other bases. I have on occasion missed coins I later identified but that was before I knew the sources I know now.

If you are interested in die variety attribution, I have Yonaka's reference covering all five denominations from Mexico. I bought it directly from him. It's hard cover and I think I paid $150 for it new. Can't remember if you said you have access to any larger coins shows. I've never asked about these coins (since I don't collect it) but seen plenty at the national ones I have attended. I don't visit local dealers either but would expect that many would carry it now, as it's widely collected. You should have plenty of supply from which to choose generically for the two types (Charles III and Charles IV) though I don't know the availability of specific dates.

I have tried it a few times with no success. This is with dealers who actually sell Latin coinage as I wouldn't bother with most dealers. I bought four coins from one dealer you presumably know. I don't need to ask him to do it since he offers what I collect when he can find it. He offered me two of the four coins I bought before adding it to his website. I'm sure he's done it for others too. But the second time he offered, I didn't buy the coin and that's the last time, Now, his prices are too high. As an example, he listed one for $975 which sold on Heritage for about half that price. Someone bought it too. It happened to be a coin I own in duplicate in slightly higher grade (both MS-61 vs. AU-58) but I'd really have to want it to pay something like a 100% mark-up.