World Colonial

You don't have to be uber wealthy to buy from Heritage. I've spent less than $15,000 since I first bought from them in 2006, some since sold. Average price is around $300 with many less than $100. I'd buy from local dealers (graded or not) IF they had what I want to buy but they don't. National shows (somewhat more than half a dozen) I've attended have something in my secondary collections, but not my primary interest. I agree the typical collector doesn't need to buy from Heritage or a source like it, but that's because what they collect is easy to find. Lately, I've bought more from Stacks than anywhere else because that's who sells it. Next month, it will be Aureo & Calico in Spain.

Heritage and the few other larger auction firms represent a minority of annual coin sales because the vast majority of collectors are low budget collectors buying cheaper coins. On the PCGS forum, a coin dealer has claimed that 80% of collectors won't pay more than $300 for a single coin which is consistent with the "budget section" at national shows, last time I went anyway. Nothing new in that.

Took me a few hours which I can do while simultaneously doing something else.

I assume essentially every US collector is aware of both. If they aren't, it's almost certainly the bullion stacker type that isn't. Predominant bullion coin buyers seem to be more interested in making or at least not losing money. Why else wouldn't they buy it, as they can obviously afford a reasonably wide variety of coinage? They aren't candidates to buy most other coins because other coins don't have equivalent marketability. It's their psychology, not lack of resources or just lack of knowledge. No, not really. It's unlikely lack of knowledge is the driving factor for more than a very low proportion. When it isn't a lack of money, it's overwhelmingly lack of interest and loss aversion. It's reasonable to make this assumption when it comes to buying the types of coins I've been buying since 1998, but not when spending more on US coinage generally or even many non-US coins. The coins are overwhelmingly easy to buy and information isn't that limited, if at all. Look at your own collecting. From your description, you're not interested in buying "meaningfully" valued coins which aren't liquid. You've mentioned buying Saints, Morgan dollars, and NCLT. These are exactly the types of coins any collector buys who wants to buy more expensive coins while minimizing the probability of loss. Most others seem to do it through low budgets, including treating it as a consumption expense. The financial promoters of the hobby are marketing to these people and so is the US Mint, but only a low percentage are candidates to spend a lot more. They aren't "investing" and would rather spend it elsewhere, assuming they have it.

I get that you dislike my replies to your opinion. Nothing new about that. I contradict what people want to hear and believe regularly. What I told you in my last reply is an accurate reflection of how collectors view collecting. I provided four specific reasons why "popular" doesn't necessarily equal preferred and each one is easy to demonstrate. Your local auctions are a better indicator than Heritage? Great, why don't you post a review covering the last 30 years segmented by volume and prices like I did from the Heritage archives? If it contradicts Heritage, then you'll have a point. Otherwise, it's just your unsubstantiated opinion.

Yes, that's exactly my point of reference but per my posts here, for somewhat different reasons.

1976, though 1981 (also about 4MM) is a better indicator since it wasn't the bicentennial. There is no equivalence to any publicly traded financial market which is your implication. First, what I wrote in earlier posts of the buyer profile. Second, look at how these sets are bought and who is probably buying it. It's substantially out of rote habit, often by subscription. Third, even with about 400,000 for the clad and somewhat less than 300,000 for the silver (both 2022), still more common than practically any set or coin. In the past I have guesstimated 2MM US collectors. If ballpark accurate, this potentially means somewhere between 20% and 35% of the collector base still buy one or both. That's a very high ratio. It's not very competitive in the internet age where it has to compete with practically everything else.

Yes, this is my point. Number of collectors buying something in and of itself alone never equals an actual preference. There is a difference between "liking" and preferred. I've never stated (even once) that US collectors dislike this coinage, for the obvious reason that I can assume no one buys something they don't want. I also agree for obvious reasons, that whoever buys US Mint products might prefer it over other similarly priced coins or else they would buy something else. This doesn't change a single thing I stated in my prior posts. I value my collection somewhere in the mid-five figures. That's just how I collect. Concurrently, it's equally obvious most collectors don't and won't spend this kind of money, whether they can afford it or not. It's just not how they view coin collecting, regardless of what they collect. That they don't doesn't mean they prefer what they buy over all other coins regardless of the value. Believing it is nonsense.

Your personal observations are not more representative than the Heritage Archives. Yes, the least preferred coinage for US collectors generically is low priced non-US coinage. Concurrently, there is a difference between "popular" measured by the size of the collector base and an actual preference. There are other reasons US collectors don't buy other coins. I gave two in my last post. One, relative marketability. Two: Availability. Your local auction has a very small slice of what's available to buy. With most non-US coinage, there is no possibility that the hundreds of thousands buying US proof sets can buy a noticeable percentage of it because it doesn't exist to be bought in that supply. It's never going to be more "popular" by your definition. Three: Affordability. Collectors cannot buy what they cannot afford, whether it's US or non-US. Four: Lack of knowledge. Most collectors have no clue that most non-US coins even exist. This doesn't mean they would change their preference, but it does contradict your claim.

The available evidence proves it's really low, for currently circulating denominations. For collectors who are willing to spend more, as soon as their budget increases, it's a one-way street from this coinage to something else. There is virtually zero if any movement in the other direction. Last year, I analyzed the Heritage Archive data here. It's the closest approximation of actual aggregate collector preferences publicly available. It's less representative for US moderns, but that's only because it's not economical to sell such disproportionately low-priced coinage through them. Combining Heritage with Greate Collections and eBay would provide a more accurate result. However, I didn't have access to historical eBay data and GC isn't organized properly for this analysis. My inference is that preferences for this coinage (excluding bullion which I did not analyze) are marginally higher than indicated by the Heritage data. Three collector profiles for US Mint releases: 1) Financially motivated buyers for bullion and many of the commemoratives. 2) Low budget collectors for proof sets, mint sets, other circulating coinage (bags and rolls for CRH and "cherry picking"), and cheaper commemoratives. 3) As a "side collection" for (practically) everyone else, not as their a primary collection. This is why I expect future mintages to decline but without any meaningful increase in prices, because it's evident most collectors don't really like this coinage that much. For proof and mint sets, even after such huge declines, mintages are hardly low. Still very common for such a low aggregate preference, especially where the survival rate in current quality will be a very high percentage for as long as it matters to anyone reading this thread.

Yes, I agree with this comment. There were never three to four million collector buyers at peak sales. Many buying multiple sets and many potentially bought by non-collectors too. You could make the same comment about the 95-W ASE. A few exceptions don't negate what I wrote.

No one has to buy any coin. That's my point. There are plenty of other coins to buy, or haven't you noticed?

Going up like everything else since the pandemic. Buy what you want. I just consider these sets poor relative values versus the alternatives.

The increasing prices are on track to eliminate more than just low budget collectors. Mintage for the 2022 clad set is down 90% from the peak decades ago. Silver is down close to 70%, I think. In my prior post, I speculated world mints subsidize prices, but collectors only care about the issue price and secondly for many, resale value. The lower mintages in theory better support higher issue prices, but that's only true if demand remains at current levels or increases. I don't think it will, because the sets (either clad or silver) aren't competitive longer term at current prices and supply versus alternative options. The current business model has the potential to lead to a "death spiral" where higher prices mean lower mintages which leads to higher prices in a feedback loop. I'm not sure what the issue price would be today at a 100,000 mintage but that's not low and I am even more confident it would be even less competitive than it is now to the remaining buyers.

I remember when the 1999 silver proof set was worth something like $600. What's it worth now? There is a big difference between the mintage levels for the 50's sets then versus similar mintages now and later. Back then, presumably the collector base was (somewhat or a lot) smaller, but there was also a lot less choice. It was mostly what was available from their local dealers (for most collectors) which varied noticeably, depending upon where they lived. Today, the US Mint competes in a global market, not just against other world mints, but against the internet which means practically every coin. In this competitive landscape, US proof sets are drab uninteresting options, not really very competitive even against similarly priced coins. US collectors do prefer US coins by a substantial margin, but they did too before sales volume collapsed 90% from the peak for clad sets.

I just checked the most recent US Mint sales report as of 2/13. Yes, the 2022 proof set (both) mintage is "low", compared to prior years. At somewhat over 400,000 (clad) and somewhat below 300,000 (silver), it's still nowhere close to actually low. Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand.

This makes perfect sense for the buyer. It also means that as the mintage shrinks, the overhead must be allocated to the remaining sets requiring higher prices. It's a catch-22 with no way out. The silver content amounts to somewhat less than 1.5oz. Unless the price increase was small, It's probably due to overhead. I don't check secondary market vs. US Mint prices. I've consistently read that these mass produced products almost always sell for less in the secondary market and it's due to a combination of weak collector appeal and how it has to be priced. I get that the US Mint isn't in the business of making sure buyers don't lose money. It doesn't change anything. Given the mintage and price differences, my inference is that other world mints must provide at least partial subsidies. Regardless, in today's collector market, the mintage for the clad proof set could decline by another 85% from 2019 to about 100,000 and it would still potentially be too common for longer term collector demand. Similar idea for the silver set and mint set. This isn't the 60's or 70's when the US Mint didn't have to compete with hardly anyone else.

The new Morgan and Peace dollar might be an exception, though I doubt for long if it's an on-going series. The 2021 prices weren't low for such common coins. Even your reduced mintages potentially rely on a noticeable proportion of speculative or financially motivated buyers. The number of hobbyist collectors who own individual dates of real Morgan and Peace dollars potential isn't that much larger. It's the cost structure. I don't think the US Mint should be in the business of subsidizing collectible coinage. Problem is perpetual currency debasement makes most of it uncompetitive at full accounting cost. The coins simply aren't that interesting, except for speculative buying (which isn't real collecting) or as a side collection to the majority of buyers who can both afford it and don't mind spending the money. In the past, I've guesstimated that the majority of US collectors have an annual budget of $500 or less and I think this is generous. This is the profile for a big portion of the traditional base for proof and mint sets in the past, though not of other US Mint offerings. If this budget is "ballpark" accurate, I don't think most of them can either afford it or are motivated to buy it.

It's of concern to collectors which I presume is the entire point of this thread. They are on course to price the product out of the market.

Yes, I know. My point on the mintage is that it's still an awful value proposition for the buyer. I think Switzerland has mintages in the 2000 to 3000 range for the annual proof set now. Maybe it's between 2X to 3X the US clad set? Same pattern for other major world mints, to my recollection. Regardless, it's a much better value. The longer-term marketability has to be much better. US clad sales have declined about 85% from the peak, to about 600,000 in 2019 which was the last year included in my search. There is still a long way down to go.

Grading is expensive. I just sent in a submission of two batches. One with five and a second for conservation and grading with three. The cost will be somewhere in the vicinity of $300. Three of the coins will be consigned for sale.

So, a 100% markup for circulating change? No thanks The proof ASE is also a rip-off, unless the mintages are a low fraction of what it used to be.

I presume it depends upon the local cost of living. Last I knew, Bolivia still made 5c coins, but their currency (Boliviano) is worth between 14 and 15 cents on the dollar. The country isn't nearly as poor as most might think assuming they know anything about it, but income levels are very low statistically.

Late again, but I would have thought higher.

Late to the thread but much nicer than most, regardless of the label number.