cladking

By most definitions of "hot" no moderns circulating coins has ever been hot. If you extend the definition to include things like the '70-S sm date cent or the 1983 quarter in BU then no "hot" circulating modern has ever decreased in value. The reason for this is simple; most people hate moderns. In order to be hot a lot of people need to buck that trend and then the coin can remain strong on its own merits. In 1975 a 1960 sm dt cent was the same price as the 1970 sm dt cent. The value of the '60 cent has eroded to the point it's worth less $2 now if you can find a buyer. The '70 wholesales at $40 and would be far higher but few people collect modern one cent coins. Many 1960 sm dts are Gem so it's hard to get a premium. Very very few '70 sm dts are Gem but few seem to even know it. As long as circulating moderns are ignored there might never be one that went from hot to not.

All of these coins weren't made in the billions and none of them were saved. Now even those that were made in the billion have few survivors and virtually every one that does survive is either a cull or in very poor condition. Even attractive circulated '65 quarters with a mintage near two billion are getting hard to find in nice attractive F or better. Even roll searching won't turn up a nice attractive VG or better 1969. People have been talking about the high mintages, ugliness, and uncollectibility of these coins since 1965. The common wisdom was wrong in 1965 and it's far more wrong today. There are plenty of nice examples made every year by the mint but you actually had to go look for them because there were not enough made that you'd even notice. I've already gotten rid of most of my clad and it's all been at a profit; a very modest profit to be sure but it leaves me with a few safety deposit boxes full of nice Gems for which I have a very low cost basis. This includes many never seen coins like Gem '69 quarters that obviously didn't originate in mint sets. There are too many coins made since 1965 that have been overlooked to even list. Collectors missed the boat. Instead of setting aside nice gemmy '76 dimes they were too busy stashing rolls and bags of bicentennial coins. Pretty soon it will be so hard to complete any set from circulation that hundreds of thousands of beginning and young collectors will have no choice but to search elsewhere. In the meantime the last of the mint sets are being consumed by a market that places no value on moderns. Sets that are not being consumed by the market are succumbing to tarnish so as the last of the coins disappear from circulation the mint sets will be gone as well. Then I won't hear any more about coins made in the billions aren't really collectible. Obviously this drawdown of mint sets and disappearance of key dates in change is going to be dependent on the continuing demand. This demand is still quite tiny but has been growing steadily since 1995. It is so tiny it could increase several fold.

Of course you realize that I'm very curious what you have in terms of original rolls of eagle reverse quarters. I suppose you mostly have the Philly issues. In the early days did you seek out the better rolls or better dates or just set aside what was available? Did you save the dime rolls as well? I run into so little of this sort of thing that it's hard to get a feel for what's out there.

I am quite aware there are some clad dime and quarter rolls out there. I talk to cherry pickers who search them for Gems and varieties. These rolls despite their highly limited availability have even less demand. At least until quite recently they had almost no demand but suddenly they seem to be in experiencing significant demand. Of course all or most of this demand is being supplied largely by mint set coins. Perhaps owners of original rolls (however many exist) aren't selling enough to satisfy demand. Since the supply of mint set coins dwarfs the supply of original rolls this does make sense. As I maintain, there aren't even enough mint sets to satisfy a mass market. Prices are not substantially higher yet but if the demand continues or grows I see no other possible outcome.

We're talking apples and oranges here. I'm talking about original BU rolls and you're talking about mint set rolls. While most mint set rolls sell at a significant premium there are several dates that trade at Greysheet which is based on original rolls. Greysheet price for the non-existent original rolls are so close to face value and the demand so limited that it's hardly surprising there would be no interest at your coin club. It is a little surprising that you're seeing mint set rolls but it just goes to show what I'm saying; there are no rolls and the mint sets are gone. If you ever do see any original rolls I'd be interested in knowing what dates they are. While I like mint set rolls a lot potential buyers should be aware that most of these rolls are cast offs. Cherry pickers go through large numbers of sets and remove the varieties and Gems. Some will even cut deep into the chBU's. You want to look at these rolls before buying them. The best chBU rolls are missing only the top 1% of coins and the bottom 40%. There could be some sellers putting mint set coins into wrappers because there is all of a sudden some demand for clad BU rolls. These will be easy to spot with some experience because most mint set coins do not look like the original roll coins. A good rule of thumb is if you see a BU roll of these coins it is NOT an original roll and is merely another 40 or 50 cut up mint sets. Original rolls are almost non-existent and tend to be low grade anyway.

Yes!!! Exactly. If the coins do come in, and they do in highly limited numbers, they go straight into the cash register. Every year fewer and fewer come in. Just like BU rolls most of the coins in the cash register today are mint set coins.

Banks were not set up to honor such requests. No doubt some asked anyway and no doubt banks sometimes accommodated them. But the fact is nobody wanted the coins so the number of requests was very limited. There were more requests for pennies and nickels. Most of the banks I walked into refused me. Even my own bank thought it was strange I wanted a bag of quarters and made me jump through hoops to get them.

No. Not exactly. Some dates were made pretty well and chBU in the rolls were common. Some dates were made so well that even Gems appear. But other dates can be really tough nice. '69 quarters were one of the worst which is likely why these don't come in rolls. But dates like the '72-D are much nicer and there were as many as twenty nice coins in the typical roll. '76 quarters are much higher quality on average but the higher grades are not more common. Some dates are tough but Gems can be more readily available. Each date and mint is unique.

Just to be clear I like the post 1999 coinage and save some of it myself. I collect some as well. I believe opportunities abound to both make money and learn a great deal from collecting the coins. But the fact is all of the coins since 1999 have been saved in some (limited) quantity and some in vast quantities. I believe all coins are collectible but it seems I might be the only one who believes pre-'99 clad is collectible.

Until 1999 the mint sold no rolls.

You can also find some penny and nickel rolls dated from '68 to '99 but it's not like you can trade in 5 1969 nickel rolls for a roll of '69 quarters. You can also find rolls of '76 quarters without too much trouble. I'd be surprised if '97 and '98 quarters are really scarce. I've been in dozens of coin shops and scoured coin shows for decades and haven't seen even a couple hundred rolls and NONE AT ALL in 25 years. What I do see is pennies, nickels, and the occasional half or dollar. I see stacks of pre-1965 BU rolls and since 1999 I see vast numbers of post-'99 coinage. Maybe it's hard to see what's not there.

Bu rolls are not interchangeable. Yes, there are millions of 1999 to date rolls because people started collecting from pocket change again in 1999. But if you're looking for a nice choice roll of '69 quarters it doesn't matter how many rolls of Delaware quarters or 2009 Lincolns you can find.

...And how many 1965 to 1999 dime and quarter rolls do you see?

Even today Greysheet price on a roll of something like 'a '72 quarter roll is $15. These Philly rolls exist in tiny numbers (even fewer than the Denver) and most of the coins are simply ugly. These simply can't be sold easily. There is very limited demand since there are virtually no Gems or varieties to be found in them. The cost of shipping is prohibitive and there will be no local demand no matter where you are. Such coins simply tend to be spent. If the owner doesn't spend them than his heirs will or the dealer who buys them will. People imagine not only that there are millions of coins saved back and that they are all nice chBU coins jam packed with Gems but the typical '72 BU quarter roll might have one chBU coin in it. The rest are ugly. The ,long and short of it is that even though there are so few '72 quarters in original rolls these have a very high attrition rate. Each date of eagle reverse clads is different but no date is truly "common" in BU rolls. The '82's and '83's came closest to being common in rolls but most of those rolls are long gone now days. The '65 to '68 were also saved but these are gone as well. All that's left are the mint sets but they've been decimated and contrary to popular belief Gems are not extremely common in mint sets. The most common account for 6 to 8% of production and the least common less than one half a percent of production. I've seen hundreds of 1982 Philly souvenir sets and have never seen a quarter that even approaches being a true Gem. Even chBU's are none too common in these sets. Even if we could find hundreds or thousands of BU roll collectors it would have little impact on the availability of chBU's of most dates. But the rolls and collectors aren't out there or they'd be visible.

I was much more referring to collectors of 1968 -'99 clad rolls and especially those collecting the rolls in and of themselves. I've met or conversed with several individuals who buy rolls but they are cherry picking Gem or varieties. Frequently the castoffs are just put into circulation. The mint has been selling various BU rolls since 1999. Before this there was no demand and today there is virtually no supply. Very few original rolls were ever saved and the attrition on the ones that were saved is extremely high because of their low price and because they get picked over. Fewer than a couple thousand rolls of something a '72-D quarter were saved and the attrition on these is sky high as collectors seek things like DDR's, type h reverses, and Gems. It certainly wouldn't leave many for collectors. I know several people who buy such rolls but I'm aware of no specific individual who collects them.

I've never actually met a BU roll collector since the BU roll market collapse in 1964. In those days there were lots of them and the government greatly overestimated the impact they were having on getting coins into circulation. I'm quite confident there are at least a hundred of them out there and in light of the fact that sellers of BU rolls are proliferating their numbers might well be growing. I just don't know what's happening to most of these coins being retailed as BU rolls. I have no doubt at least some of the rolls will be split up or cherry picked but there are numerous possibilities. Numismatic News in 1984 reported on an east coast vending company owner who had set aside a bag of every date and mint since 1965. They said at the time that after running stories about the scarcity of '82-P quarters for weeks this bag was the only BU coins that had turned up! I believe I've seen coins from this bag and the coins tend to be typical. Ironically the numbers of '82 coins saved in rolls and bags increased substantially in 1982 because it was widely known that there would be no mint sets. But still fewer than 80,000 '82-P quarters were saved and attrition on these is substantial. While there is no doubt that the coins saved out in BU are superior on average to typical coins they are still very poor because these were made so badly and because Gems were released in highly limited geographical areas. Attrition on intact rolls is astronomical because of the high demand for singles. A nice chBU roll of these can be had (in theory) for $235 Greysheet bid and then the coins sold on eBay for $100 each!!! Of course most rolls are typical and will contain only a very few $100 coins. When I started setting aside clad quarters in 1975 I wanted an original BU roll set as well as 40 of the nicest specimens I could find from any source. But I quickly found stoppers to a BU roll set. The 1969 was impossible even back then without sending off for it and by the late-'70's it was too late even for this. Then most of the early dates were just awful in rolls. Many rolls had nothing but very poor coins and I saw no point in saving them and no pleasure from owning them so they were just spent. A roll collection of nice coins with nice end coins or even just 40 nice specimens made for circulation would be a major achievement and source of pride. I do value the Gems I've found in circulation a great deal and have set them aside all along. Many varieties don't exist in mint sets. You might say I'm a frustrated BU roll collector. Some of the most fun I've had collecting moderns besides all the interesting people I've met is chasing down Gems and varieties in circulation. I should have done more of it and maybe a little less time sitting in coin shops looking through their stacks of mint sets.

Of course the implication is the BU roll prices listed by Greysheet might have no meaning at all if the demand for moderns is for nice MS-64 and better coins. Many BU rolls have no coins this nice. Even mint set rolls might have as few as 2 or 3 nice gemmy coins. '76 Ike rolls assembled years ago would have two nice coins and any assembled recently will have one nice coin but it's skunked (needs cleaning). This might explain why common rolls are selling for prices as much as 15X Greysheet. Perhaps I missed seeing the move. It would explain part of the reason prices on eBay are far higher. Nice attractive clad is hard to find and every year it gets harder. Even MS-60 to MS-63 coins are far less common than people believe and almost all clad in such low grade can be very unattractive.

I checked the company's website and was shocked by this; Huge premium prices paid for the above average Unc rolls

In addition to all the running around I did to sample coins I also spoke to hundreds of dealers and collectors to pick their brains and to gain insight into their experiences about moderns. This included a lot of letters and a few phone calls as well. Of course it included major dealers and suppliers of moderns. John Paul Sarosi was one I never did have the pleasure of meeting despite attending a couple of the Monroeville coin shows. But I certainly spoke to enough people to know there was nothing at all unusual about my experiences and observations. Even today most of the big dealers refuse to stock or advertise moderns. They are treated like Crazy Half Heller (https://archive.org/details/terrible-tales-german/page/89/mode/2up) or like the coins cause cancer. The hobby has barely changed since 1965 in many ways. The War on Coin Collectors is still being fought by many old timers. They remember the collapse of the BU roll market followed by the collapse of the entire coin market and rather than blaming the bad thinking and bad decisions they blame clads and all moderns. This was 60 years ago but it's still 1965 in many coin shops.

I checked his site and he lists buying and selling of all BU rolls. I seriously doubt he does much business in clads today. If memory serves he was selling brand new clad back in the late-'70's but was a relatively small figure in that business. I sometimes wonder if those late-'80's and early '90's clads will be the toughest in XF and AU. Some of the early dates will be tough as well but there were people setting them aside and I have run into some accumulations. Unfortunately these don't survive long after they come on the market but I've found varieties in them and pulled out a few rarely seen die pairing in high grade. Thanks. Very interesting. The story is not so unusual. Whitman has sold hundreds of thousands of the folders to collect clads though I rarely see them full or otherwise. Believe it or not I saw a whole case of them in a coin shop about 1995 (these were a different issue than yours and started at 1965) but the owner wouldn't tell me why he had them. It's hard to believe any coin shop could sell more than a handful a year.

I had been all over the country trying to find nice '82-P quarters and had had almost no luck at all. I was able to procure some rolls but the coins would barely even grade MS-65 today (I graded them MS-63). By October I had about given up when I was handed three nice shiny '82-P quarters at my local BMV. Upon enquiring where they got the coins I hurried across the street to that bank which just happened to be my bank. I couldn't beg borrow or steal even one of them and was left no avenue to change their minds. I went home and poured through all my bank receipts for the last seven years. I found eight or ten tiny little errors that added up to me owing them 27c. Most of the errors were in their favor but a larger one was in mine. I went into the bank and talked to the same representative. I set a quarter and two pennies on her desk and asked for a receipt. Suffice to say that in lieu of a receipt she introduced me to the vault manager. I was very successful and was able to glean out a few rolls of nice Gems; no varieties but nice Gems. Being such a tough grader I considered most of them to be only MS-64 at the time. Mebbe I shouldda kept the bag. Virtually every one in the bag would grade MS-65 or higher today. The moral of the story is simple; people did not set aside clad between 1968 and 1999. The only time I was able to get rolls of clads was when a friendly bank teller would look and see if he had any. Once in a while you could even get a bag but most banks just didn't want to mess with it. No demand created no means to supply the coins so most people just sent off $12 or $13 per roll to one of the advertisers. Since there was no demand it is pointless to speculate that there were lots of people who were getting the coins at the bank. No! Oddball rolls surely exist because sometimes people would save a roll they just happened to get at the bank but these hypothetical coins are probably scarcer than the rolls sold by the advertisers. The quality of the average roll is so poor that they have little or no bearing on the availability of MS-64 and better clad.

Responding to a post or the argument contained therein is not the same thing as refuting it. You are merely imagining millions of collectors in the '60's and '70's running down to their favorite bank and buying rolls and rolls of nice shiny well made and pristine quarters. It didn't happen. Few banks would accommodate such special requests and I know this because I was about the only one running around. I had to twist the arm of one bank (usually I just tried somewhere else), and was told by the vault manager that he had never even heard of anyone requesting rolls of clads. He said he even called up a few other vault managers in the district and they hadn't either. Sure there were pesky requests sometimes for cents and nickels but not clad. Remember? People hated clad and they weren't out there looking for them or combing through them to find Gems. So why would there be millions of collectors buying rolls at their local branch? It never happened. I was there and watching it. People who wanted rolls bought them from suppliers who advertised in the coin papers and sold them for a nominal cost plus shipping and handling. In those days shipping and handling didn't cost so much but people didn't want these coins at any price so sales were abysmal. Despite very low sales most of these coins are likely gone or degraded today because they weren't valued by the buyers. By the same token most mint sets weren't valued by the owners either which is why they are gone too. Ask your bank if you can get a box of shiny new dimes and let us know what they said. No, not new quarters, new dimes; accept no substitute! Those dimes they refuse to provide you would of necessity have been '22, '23 or '24 P or D mints because the mint and FED use FIFO accounting practices and always ship out coins that have been in storage the longest. This assures all the dimes of any given date will wear out evenly. There are no pallets of brand new 1975 dimes lost in a warehouse somewhere. The fact that 1975 dimes ARE IN FACT wearing out evenly proves there aren't even pallets of circulated coins lost in warehouses. If you don't believe it find a bunch of '75 dimes and look for yourself. I have and have done so on a continuing basis since before '75 dimes were even minted. My sample sizes are in the millions. If you could find enough'75 dimes to perform an analysis of condition you'd see that the form a nice bell curve centered at F- condition. Of course you can't find enough of these very easily to do such a statistical analysis any longer because they were designed to last only 30 years and it's almost half a century now. It's not only 1975 dimes that are gone now but all of them and the mint sets too. Most of the very few BU rolls that you are still imaging existed are probably gone too. People simply didn't save these coins to start with and the years have been cruel to the few exceptions. This is the way it is. Trying to estimate surviving populations by looking at their price is putting the cart before the horse. People still aren't collecting clads coins in numbers approaching their availability but this number is growing very fast. They will get better at finding the coins they want even as the attrition continues. As demand creates profit markets will begin to appear as they are right now. As markets appear it will become easier to purchase coins. There are not enough nice attractive BU clads to satisfy a mass market so if one does ever begin price will increase to balance the supply. There are not large numbers of ugly Unc clads either. There are even fewer nice XF and VF clads. You have to get down almost all the way to coins in circulation before substantial numbers exist. Did I mention many dates are getting really hard to find in circulation as well? Most are gone and what's left are heavily worn culls.

Yes! There are more than a million of them even though some dates are far more difficult than others. The people who saved them didn't understand statistics or how the world works any better than we do so they weren't efficient in saving equal numbers of each date. So if there ever are any future collectors it will be a mess as they try to sort out who gets what. Luckily they'll have artificial intelligence to even out the rough spots and make the distribution equitable. For 50 years I've told modern bashers these coins were scarce and they told me it didn't matter because there are countless billions in circulation. Now that they aren't in circulation any longer I'm told it doesn't matter because no one will ever collect them anyway. Your twist that they aren't scarce is a brand new one. I'm not sure how to counter this. If I told you to go out and look for yourself I'm sure your experience would not be representative of reality either. I don't know why anyone ever gets out of his cave in the morning if the world is so incomprehensible? Now that we are so close to agreeing let me just observe that a mass market could absorb a million coins in mere days.

Because you erred either in sampling or math then I must be wrong! Do you realize it's far easier to get excellent samples and make good estimates fore current coin than it is to do so for old coins from obscure or lightly collected countries? I was right here where the coins were made and distributed from day 1.

Is observation meaningless only when I do it or does this apply to everybody? Does one have to be a Peer to make observation?!