I bought a modern coin that went up 10 times in value soon after I purchased it. Its still holding pretty high after having been released almost two years ago. It's odd but I think if you get two people in an auction that feel the item they are bidding is a must have acquisition, the final hammer can go very high. If not there are occasional good buys out there. Keep your auction watch lists up to date and strictly adhere to your maximum bid, there may yet be some good deals to be had. Perhaps you'll watch ten and win one. It all depends on the demand at the time of the auction. Of course eye appeal, grades, and other miscellaneous factors have a lot to do with demand. Don't give up on locating items at coin shops or direct sales from other collectors. They can be your best value. In the end, it really is a treasure hunt. Below is the coin of which I am referring.

Gary

I was interested in a coin at a recent auction with an estimate of 600-800 which I thought was a little low and wouldn't have been surprised at 1200 - it went for 3500! It was a top pop but was the 2nd most common issue of the series to find in uncirculated condition, I will wait for an ungraded example to appear.

I think top pop coins are attracting bids that really can't be justified - often 5 to 10x just one grade lower - sometimes I think that the coin doesn't warrant the grade at all and people are buying the label. I am more than happy with a grade below 'top pop' as long as the coin is nice

Another great entry, Don!

I love that even though you're tending to other things currently, you're still keeping your finger on the pulse in your collecting area.  As for me, with what I collect, I haven't experienced anything like this and I probably won't for a couple of reasons.  The first is that most of Faustina the Younger's coins are very, very common.  Even 1,891 years after she was born, her coins remain extremely common.  I think I said this in another of your entries but I'll repeat it here....Faustina the Younger coinage is almost like the 1980's baseball cards of Second Century CE coinage.  Secondly, most people who collect Roman coins aren't collecting them the way that I do.  I only know of a couple of other people trying to build a comprehensive collection of the coinage of a single ruler and none of them are chasing Faustina.  As far as I know, I'm the only one collecting her coinage with the goal of a full set, or rather, as much of a full set as we know of.  You can never be sure you have everything with ancients and, likely, you don't and never will.   So, most people buy a single Faustina and move onto another person whose coin they do not have yet.  As a result, my little numismatic world hasn't changed much with the rising prices.  I'm actually very happy about that.  I don't chase Faustina for money.  I chase her out of love.  But, for you guys who are collecting in areas that are crazy, I do hope things settle down some for you.  I can imagine that this price craziness has been something of a drag for many of you.

~Tom 

Were you able to view the lot in person? I know even the big auction houses have trouble catching a coins true appearance at times. At the last ANA/Heritage auction that I was able to attend in person the on-site lot viewing I did completely changed how I was bidding. 

That said, there are definitely crazy prices in the areas that I collect and it is not often that I can view lots in person prior to bidding. I don't have deep pockets so I have to be picky what I bid on. Going into a big auction I may have 6 items that I am both interested in and feel like I have a chance of obtaining. Out of those, I may only bid seriously on 1 or 2 of them. Attached is my most recent auction win. I ended up paying 4 times the estimate but the estimate was rediculously low. This came from the CNG sale earlier in the week. They actually had videos posted of most of the items in the sale which is important to me. If interested it can be seen here. https://cngcoins.com/photos/CNG_Links/video/CNG_118/1277.html

Still not as good as an on site inspection but in my opinion, more informative than a photo. 

@coinsbygary As always, excellent picture, Gary! I do not plan to step away from adding additions to my collection, but I do intend to be far more selective. For instance, I have purchased two items from trusted dealers in the last month, both from the Boulton estate. Nowadays, it has to be something truly remarkable to get me to spend money.

@ColonialCoinsUK I started as a U.S. coin collector before moving to English and Irish copper, and the “top pop” game was always a bit frustrating to me. I am far more content to have a nice coin than a nice holder (i.e., I collect coins, not holders)! You and I are very much alike in that regard, Mike. 

It seems as though more demand is being placed on world coins in these “top pop” holders in recent years, which makes me wonder if the recent influx of competition is primarily U.S.-based. This may have changed in the last couple of years, but generally speaking, TPGS and thus “top pops” are far less meaningful amongst European collectors, so I doubt their influence is as significant. The odd part about the Irish piece I mentioned above is that it isn’t even a true “top pop” coin!

@Mowhawk I appreciate the kind words, Tom! It is nice to see that a few of us have been spared from the current craziness of the market. It appears you have found the perfect niche area of focus to keep you occupied for some time without necessarily breaking the bank.

@World_Coin_NutYou bring up a fair point. I did not view the coin in hand, but I do not think it would have drastically changed my opinion even if I had. I have seen enough of these pieces in hand to be comfortable stating that there are nicer raw examples in the marketplace if you know where to look.

Although not recently, I take a similar approach and focus my efforts on one or two lots that I have a reasonable chance of winning. I, too, am no stranger to paying multiples of the high estimate when I really want something. I did just that earlier this year, paying nearly 6x the high estimate, but it was a unique piece that I knew I would likely never get the chance to purchase again.

I wish more auction houses would post videos. That would make assessing the coin much easier as opposed to a photo. Of course, nothing can replace an in-hand inspection. Nice coin, by the way!