Want proof that the 3CN market is starting to get pumped?

[Prethen]

1875 3CN eBay Auction

 

I'm posting this link above to an eBay auction that as of yet hasn't finished. Including shipping that coin is going for over $80. A few weeks ago it might have hit $30 and even then I'd be surprised. I'll let you guys provide the negative commentory on what's wrong with that coin. Obviously, it has some serious issues.

 

I don't know what to think. I'm speechless.

 

The price it's going for is basically off-the-charts as far as all the guides go. I think some people are starting to realize just how scarce that year really is. I wonder if the CDN will start to reflect what's going on.

 

And, I'm fully aware that sometimes two people can make a stupid coin go for stupid money. The only thing is, I've been seeing this with increasing frequency with several 3CN issues in recent weeks but not prior.

[MarkFeld]

Sorry, but in all seriousness, that is not proof of much of anything to me, much less something as broad as that "3CN market is starting to get pumped".

[Prethen]

Mark, I've been watching the scarce dates like a hawk for the past 3+ years on eBay and on various dealers sites. The eBay coins are starting to move for "stupid" prices, not to mention most are problems.

 

I realize one or two auctions don't make for proof of a move. But, this seemed to show as an extremely interesting example of what I'm seeing. I'm sorry that I don't have links to some of those other auctions.

 

I also know of some people that are starting to move into the series and they also noticing the same situation. Prices across the series are moving off the guides. I think it's a good thing as they've been sleeping for basically 120 years.

 

Here's another one that went nutty! At least this one doesn't look like a problem.

 

This one went pretty strong, too

 

[MarkFeld]

Prices across the series are moving off the guides

In what grade(s)? Again, "the 3CN market" is quite a broad reference.

[Prethen]

Circulated grades...the stuff I'm most familar with and (used to be able to) afford.

[MarkFeld]

Thanks for the (partial) clarification, Bruce. Is that all circulated grades and all dates?

[Raybo55]

Mark, I've been watching the scarce dates like a hawk for the past 3+ years on eBay and on various dealers sites. The eBay coins are starting to move for "stupid" prices, not to mention most are problems.

 

I realize one or two auctions don't make for proof of a move. But, this seemed to show as an extremely interesting example of what I'm seeing. I'm sorry that I don't have links to some of those other auctions.

 

I also know of some people that are starting to move into the series and they also noticing the same situation. Prices across the series are moving off the guides. I think it's a good thing as they've been sleeping for basically 120 years.

 

Here's another one that went nutty! At least this one doesn't look like a problem.

 

This one went pretty strong, too

 

I agree with you, it's a handsome coin and there are some very scarce years..... not unlike the seated series IMHO.

 

Ray

 

 

[Prethen]

The common dates, 1865-1869 (and maybe some others) are not enjoying this current situation. However, I think once the bids start rising on the scarcer dates, the common ones will move a bit, too.

 

[Raybo55]

The common dates, 1865-1869 (and maybe some others) are not enjoying this current situation. However, I think once the bids start rising on the scarcer dates, the common ones will move a bit, too.

 

I wanted to put some kind of short set toughter several year ago (about 10 years) and I chose the 2 cent series, I did not finish it but i'm kicking myself for not going for the 3 cent nickels.

 

Ray

[michael]

prego bruce (prethan) prego\

 

i happen to agree but it takes really much stody and specifically watching and understand this market in circ and better dare circ three centers to understand then

 

better not wait too long or you might5 have to pay much higher prices ( and they will still be a good buy) in the future months

 

they are definately little unknown cute creatures still hiding in the bushes of the coin market but still advancing more and more thruogh the underbrush none the less

 

...................................

[ziggy29]

It's not across the board yet but the contagion is spreading. At first it was just the better dates (1879-89 minus 1881). Now the next tier (1871-76, roughly) appear to be in higher demand.

 

I am looking at this market in four "tiers" based on mintage, availability and value (looking specifically at business strikes, since the proofs are still dead):

 

* Tier 1: 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887

* Tier 2: 1879, 1880, 1882, 1888, 1889

* Tier 3: 1871 - 1876

* Tier 4: 1865 - 1870, 1881

 

Tiers 1 and 2 are clearly moving up strongly with some Tier 1 prices almost doubling in recent months -- no doubt about it. This is confirmed by off eBay sources (price lists, auctions from Heritage and the Goldbergs, et cetera).

 

As far as calling a "bull market" on the Tier 3, I'll wait for confirmation from other venues rather than a couple of people going "moon money" on eBay, but it may be happening, too. I'm suspecting a lot of people are fed up with going after series after series which have superstopper key dates that keep getting out of reach. They may be doing the same thing to this series, particularly with the business strikes of 1884 and 1885.

 

Either that or someone (or group) is out there trying to hoard the better date stuff. That wouldn't shock me, either. In any event, pricing pressure seems to be slowly contagious.

 

[MarkFeld]

Ziggy, what grade ranges are you speaking of for movements in the various tiers you listed? Thanks.

[ziggy29]

Ziggy, what grade ranges are you speaking of for movements in the various tiers you listed? Thanks.

I'm mostly watching the EF/AU range, since that's what I've started picking up here and there. I don't think the action I speak of is limited to those grades, though -- but I've watched the other grades less so I can't say with as much confidence.

[UScoinrunner88-migration]

I don't believe the common dates will move all that much, but as there are more and more collectors, these will start to be snatched up.

 

As for the Key dates, of which there are several, these will start to demand a lot of money, IMO. From the examples you showed Prethen, it does appear that there are collectors who are starting to sacrifice for these more difficult to locate coins. It will be interesting to see where the market goes in a year from now for these circulated keys.

[Prethen]

I would probably place 1875 in your tier 2. It's funny you did that tier example. I sort of thought of the series like the way you laid it out all this time.