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Status of the Coin Market - YTD 2007

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Based on the coin market indicators I use to cut thru all they hype it appears bullion is slightly up with Platinum doing the best. Numismatic coins are down about 2% YTD and with the minus signs and dead in the water activity I keep seeing week after week on the CDN this is no surprise. When will we see something like a beautiful 1884-CC Morgan Dollar in MS 65 outperform bullion? If you operate a numismatic business I would consider 15% a good ROI in this rather lame market. If you are not making 15% ROI then you might do better in the stock market. I believe 2007 will be another year where bullion outperforms numismatic coins. Following are some of the coin market indicators I regularly track:


PCGS 3000 - Down 1.9%

Gold - up 6.4%

Silver - up 5.3%

Platinum - up 18.5%.


The baseline I use for these is 12/22/06 CDN for bullion and 12/18/06 PCGS 3000. I then input the current bullion numbers from the Kitco bullion site and current PCGS 3000 to my spreadsheet control page where pricing for bullion related material in my inventory is driven. Pricing for numismatic coins is driven by CDN or some other price guide. Since I take pricing very seriously markup feeds for numismatic material is driven by other spreadsheets based on actual dealer asks vs bid. Occasionally I will wholesale material or sell way below market (moderns - at a recent show I sold a modern coin in MS 70 for $95 where the online price guide said $800) where low cost allows some room and then get quick turnover but still perform within target profit range.


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Interesting post. I would say that the coin market has been a little slower in general this year. However, I still believe that there is the bifuricated market, with nice, original classic US coins and any decent looking copper continuing to rise in price, while generic or poor quality "widgets" have moved sideways or suffered somewhat.


Morgans and Classic Commemoratives have been generally slow this year, and some high MS grade gold prices seem to have struggled due to some issues in the grading of these pieces. I tend to think that the long-term prospects for the coin market are fairly strong, as the rally over the past few years has been a broad based rally brought on by an influx of collectors. Price corrections are a healthy part of any market.


I think that parts of the market are taking a healthy breather. But, I see bullion as a good investment over the next 5 years, as the US Dollar continues to weaken.

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