Why did the classic commem market soften?

[Zoins]

It seems like the classic commem market was strong for many years and then has softened considerably. Is this true? If so, what were the reasons this happened?

[texasrichard]

I continually get outbid, so it doesn't seem soft too me.

 

That being said however, I don't know what the last several years have seen so I don't know the answer.

[Zoins]

I think the time frame I heard for the start of the softening is like 10-20 years ago and that today's market is still soft compared to back then. I could be mistaken as I don't have the threads I'm thinking of on hand at the moment.

[WoodenJefferson]

The classic commemorative market (excluding Pan-Pacs) from the early teens until the glut of the 1946 through 1951 Booker T. Washington and then with the final nail in the commemorative coffin with the 1951-1954 Carver/Washington, has always ebbed in a cycle since the 50's.

 

It seems to be in 10 year cycles, with the up swing these days with highly toned specimens. Toned commems have always been popular, but in the past few years has area has really lit up the market.

 

50's low

60's tepid

70's low

80's hot

90's tepid

2000's hot

(+-5 years)

 

Of course the better condition/low mintages will always be a seller irregardless of what the market is saying.

 

Just my observations, I could be totally off base.

[WaxonWaxov]

Now that the oldest of the Modern Commemoratives are 25 years old, do you think the demand for the oldest Moderns like the Washington Half, Los Angeles Olympics, and Staute of Liberty Centennials will increase in coming years?

[LuvToCollect]

I have bought several at good prices and hope to get a few more. I hope for a stronger commerative market, but i guess we all do.

[TomB]

I kept waiting throughout the 1990s for early commems to gain steam, but they could never sustain a climb. At least part of the reason, in my opinion, is that the TPGs have played fast-and-loose with handing out ultra-gem grades for less than spectacular coinage, which I think results in a bit of a depression in the market.

[World Colonial]

The traditional commemoratives were one of the hottest areas in the 1980's market and I believe that there are still several (or possibly many) coins that sell for less than they did back then. That is possibly one source for that comment, particularly if it came from someone who bought those coins at the peak and still holds a losing position.

 

In the case of modern commemoratives, the oldest ones may be 25 years old but there as many of them in premium condition as there ever were because none of them circulated and the way are stored makes it likely that most of them will reamin in the condition they exist today years into the future. I do not know which ones are the most popular but many of them were issued for dubious reasons, at least in my opinion.

 

Many or most people and collectors would agree that the 1982 Washington half has historical significance. Same for the 1986 Statue of Liberty. The 1984 Olympics less so. With others such as the USO, I see no reason to even issue a coin but I do not know whether other collectors see it the same way and if so, if that makes any difference to them.

[MorganMan]

Junk such as the 1986 Clad Liberty Half is what turns me off to moderns. If they are going to make commems, at least make nice ones, not pocket change junk metal.

 

MM

[WaxonWaxov]

many of them were issued for dubious reasons, at least in my opinion.

 

You mean like the Bobby Kennedy and Pat Kennedy Shriver ones?

 

It's only a matter of time before the NAACP, PETA, and the ACLU all have government issued Commemoratives.

 

Then again, it would be kinda cool if the NRA got one that had a pic of Charlton Heston on the obverse.

 

I crack myself up!

[BillJones]

Back in the late 1980s, a group of big dealers promoted the devil out of the “old” commemorative series to investors and other non-collector – speculator types. They were about to point to the low mintages and high grade coins that were available to label these coins as “great investments” with lots of potential. If you look in the back of an early edition of the Breen – Swiatek book on commemorative coins, you will see some truly outrageous price projects. If their predictions had come true, only the Rockefellers, Cabots and Bill Gates would be able to collect commemorative coins today. Best of all for the dealers who were promoting these coins was that the supply of Mint State pieces was very large. Therefore there was loads of product to sell.

 

The “bigger fool theory” kicked in and the sales and price run up began. Finally the market ran out of bigger fools, and the prices collapsed. A lot of people lost money. The dealers who created the scam made money. And the market went on partially recover as more true collectors got interested in the series.

[BillJones]

Junk such as the 1986 Clad Liberty Half is what turns me off to moderns. If they are going to make commems, at least make nice ones, not pocket change junk metal.

 

MM

 

I agree with you disappointment over the fact that all but two (George Washington and Bill of Rights) of the commemorative half dollars have been made out of junk metal. I take issue with your statement that the Stature of Liberty half dollar was “junk.” I think the design of the coin was outstanding and posted my opinion here in the U.S. Coin section of this forum. The trouble was it was only stuck on clad planchets.

 

Why have so many half dollars been struck on clad planchets? Perhaps Congress thought that by keeping the cost down, more people, such as YNs, would be able to afford them.

 

Pretty coins, really cheap

[MorganMan]

My statement had absolutley nothing to do with the design, but the material....

 

I WISH i could have a liberty half in silver.

 

 

MM

 

PS:. I do not really think that if they had struck a liberty in silver, that the price would have been prohibitive for a YN to afford. Even 1 oz coins are only in the $ 30 range....

[Beijim]

It's only a matter of time before the NAACP, PETA, and the ACLU all have government issued Commemoratives.

I hear NGC is contemplating a special fur-lined slab to house and protect the PETA issue.

 

Beijim

[MAULEMALL]

It's only a matter of time before the NAACP, PETA, and the ACLU all have government issued Commemoratives.

I hear NGC is contemplating a special fur-lined slab to house and protect the PETA issue.

 

Beijim

Yes I believe you are correct and to commemorate the return of TJ and Truth there will be a choice between puppy and cat fur...

[leeg]

I know I didn't pay "soft" money for this piece:

 

 

PCGS AU55

 

 

[MAULEMALL]

I know I didn't pay "soft" money for this piece:

 

 

PCGS AU55

 

 

WOW, I don't expect you did...Very nice

[EZ_E]

Sweet, Lee! You most definitely have an eye for quality coins! I love your most recent Bust Half as well. Incredible! 'Tis another reason that I have never regretted the 4 or 5 purchases I have made from you.