PCGS / NGC / The Death of the Modern Coin Market?

[MikeInFL]

 

Why I buy PF70 Moderns:

1. Cheapest they will ever get.

2. Registry Points.

3. Because it is Perfect.

4. One day they will be valuable.

5. So One day my kids will have a #1 Set.

6. Old people hate them and sell them cheap.

 

Print this post out, come back in a few years, and see how misguided you were. I mean you no offense, but you are quite naive.

 

That's not to say that collecting modern PF 70 coins is bad, but if the above is why you are collecting them, you are going to be in for a rude awakening.

 

All IMHO, and respectfully submitted...Mike

 

p.s. Greg, thanks for your response.

[mikesartifacts]

A very interesting study about the mindset of these two grading companies, thanks for the effort. It seems true that MS70 used to be non-existent or even forbidden 12-15 years ago. It was the once sacred benchmark for condition. This seemingly obvious change in standards might bleed over into other series as time goes by, as they represent the next untapped frontier.

 

As a dimensional inspector with a discerning eye who deals with measurements down to the millionths of an inch, I made a couple of comparisons of PR69 and PR70 coins of the same issue and year with full color non-contact optical video probes at 1000x magnification, and could see no difference between the pairings. This comparison required careful setup and scrutiny, taking several minutes each. Is several minutes on one coin spent by each grader during these massive bulk submissions? The sheer number of coins flowing in and out would suggest that this would not be possible, and minutes might actually be pressure filled seconds.

 

As for right now, try getting just about any U.S. business strike from any series from 1940 to 1970 to grade higher than MS66. You mentioned that PCGS likely had an unwritten policy with regard to the Moderns, and I think there are unwritten policies for each series too. I regularly see truly exceptional Washingtons, Franklins, Kennedys, Lincolns and Rosys that reside in 66 holders. They have "reached" the MS66 ceiling, but are clearly deserving of MS67 or better status. These series may be the next frontier, where for whatever reason, grading standards will perhaps change.

 

The big names have strut out "exclusives" with the likes of Home Shopping Network or QVC in the past, which are just classic studies in marketing... First Strikes! First Release! SS Republic! Oh my.

[cladking]

To me the key word is "relative" because by my (subjective) standards almost no US coins are hard to find outside of what I described above. On any given day, what most US collectors want is available from a dealer, on eBAY or Teletrade, or the next major auction if they have the money to buy them. So although I do not look for moderns, if I have seen 1796 or 1797 drapped bust half dollars and similar rarities on a few websites, then yes I would expect to find all moderns in the quality that most collectors are willing to buy in a relatively short period of time. And if I am wrong (which is definitely possible), then it is not because of the scarcity of this material, but because the prices are still low and it is not worth selling them. That is what I believe to be the case for some of the coins I do collect.

 

There are scarce and rare new and old US coins. Even some of the relatively available moderns aren't always easily found. There is growing demand for these coins and they do get put into collections for many years. There are very few modern collections coming available and this will continue for a long time.

 

There's no question that world coins are much less expensive than US but they might not be that much cheaper than moderns. There are some incredible values in world moderns.

[coinman1794]

 

As a dimensional inspector with a discerning eye who deals with measurements down to the millionths of an inch, I made a couple of comparisons of PR69 and PR70 coins of the same issue and year with full color non-contact optical video probes at 1000x magnification, and could see no difference between the pairings. This comparison required careful setup and scrutiny, taking several minutes each. Is several minutes on one coin spent by each grader during these massive bulk submissions? The sheer number of coins flowing in and out would suggest that this would not be possible, and minutes might actually be pressure filled seconds.

 

 

You hit on an important point; the graders don't spend enough time on each coin to accurately assess whether a coin is virtually perfect (69) or perfect (70). It is physically impossible to consistently make this distinction under current conditions. With frequent inconsistencies accross the board in coin grading (also the result of not enough time spent grading each coin), the entire concept of managing such a delicate task, as recognizing a 70, is questionable.

[just-john]

I think it a simple system based on money spent.Like get 200 coins graded get 1ms 70

get 500 coins graded get 4 ms 70,or something along those lines.

[Zoins]

Could the pop numbers be exaggerated by crack outs? If people are incentivized to crack out and resubmit to PCGS, the number of 69s in their pop would go up faster than the actual number of coins they saw further exaggerating the percentage of 70s vs 69s. Could this effect be significant for some series?

 

If the number of 70s is really limited for political reasons, the primary reason for the low number may be politics while secondary effects such as crack outs can exacerbate the effect even more.

[gmarguli]

Not for ultra moderns. Very few would be cracked out to try again.

[cladking]

I think it a simple system based on money spent.Like get 200 coins graded get 1ms 70

get 500 coins graded get 4 ms 70,or something along those lines.

 

If everyone would send in a random sample then this would be an excellent way to assign grades. The problem is that these coins almost never comprise a random sample. Just as varieties will be made by a few dies and be distributed in select areas, the same forces will tend to apply to high grade coins. This will vary from issue to issue dependent on the number of dies which strike perfect coins and the practices of the individuals who move, package and ship the coins.

 

In the old days the mint fullfilled orders by zip code. This allowed some gems to all go to the same area or areas. This is much less pronounced with the modern mint practices but there is still segregation along various lines by the time they get to the customer.

 

Of greater importance is that these coins are usually pre-screened. Some will remove almost everything with the slightest problem and others might overlook large numberws of coins with even larger problems. It's even possible to remove or damage the best coins in the prescreening process.