PCGS / NGC / The Death of the Modern Coin Market?

[WaxonWaxov]

I agree that collecting coins and attracting a new generation of collectors is a good thing but I draw no distinction whatsoever whether they are collecting old, new, or ancient.

 

As a 34-year-old who recently came back to the hobby after 20 years I will say this:

 

I'm interested in gold coins for the partially the sake of having physical gold as an investment.

 

I look at things like Indian Head Quarter Eagles and think "wow.. I'll never be able to afford to complete a set of those in decent condition."

 

On the other hand, I can pick-up modern gold commemoratives and Eagles for not that much more than spot. Not only will they always retain value for their gold value, they have the potential to become collector items that will be worth much more than their bullion value in 30 years when I retire, unlike lifeless gold bars that I can get for spot, but aren't likely to ever be worth more than spot in the future.

 

Now, if I make the extra effort to get 70 grade coins, for not much more than a raw coin would be from the mint then I feel it's worth the extra effort. For example just last night I picked-up a Jamestown PF-70ucam for only $30 more than the price of the raw coin from the Mint.

 

Cheers,

[al_e_gator]

Certainly I see your point but you picked a very unfortunate example.

 

The SMS's have been highly picked over by many people for decades. About the only ones left as possible candidates are unopened boxes and these have become exceedingly tough to find in the last ten years. It also should be pointed out that if you have multiple unopened boxes it's possible to know what's in these by spot checking them. In other words, even some unopened boxes are checked.

 

Large numbers of these sets have been destroyed over the years and all the original buyers are some 40 years older. Since it was mostly middle aged men who bought them it's not reasonable to believe vast numbers of these remain in pristine condition.

 

I guess I'm an exception. I apologize in advance for the long story to follow. But here goes anyhow......

 

My father died in 1977 leaving me stacks of mint sets and proof sets, purchased direct by him every year. I was 14 at the time and an avid collector of pre-64 circulated coins. I don't have an official count of each year mint sets and proof sets, but there has to be at least 5 if not more of each type for each year. For 1976 I know I have one Xerox box full, the rest of the years, from 1963-75 and 1977, fill up 3 other Xerox boxes. I have never examined these other than the ID on the envelopes or boxes, nor did he. He just bought and stored them (as the hoarder he was). I plan to just pass these along to my kids or grandkids. Even as a coin collector, I shudder at the monotany of going through these sets, they do not interest me, therefore they sit.

He also left me jars and jars full of older silver and cents. Those I went through, each and every one, because they interest me.

 

Several years later after moving out-of-state for college, I stayed with my grandparents on my mom's side of the family. I didn't know my grandfather too well at the time, but I quickly found out he did the mint and proof set thing too, in addition he had 5 large coffee cans full of mixed AU Morgan and Peace Dollars with quite a few keys to boot plus many other silver coins. He died in 1994 and I inherited his hoard, filled up some Dansco albums to at least 90% complete and put the duplicates in tubes or flips. His mint and proof sets, mainly from the 60s fill up only 3/4 of one Xerox box which I have kept separate (for some reason) from the other sets.

 

I have continued my father's tradition since 1992 when my daughter was born. When the sets arrive from the mint each year, I pop open one each just to have a quick look (not to examine for grade), put them back and add them into the stack of her Xerox boxes full. Some years I buy one or two of each other years 20 of each, depending on my mood at the time. In addition to that, I also pieced together a set of slabbed PF70s for 1992 which I purchased piece by piece at various auctions for the same price as the PF69s that I purchased a few years before that (I'll eat that loss). I do the same for friends and family for their kids, but they never come from my personal mint or proof sets. Those sets will just sit in boxes for now. I consider them keepsakes and not investments. I may go through them and cherry pick some sets after I retire, but then again, maybe not.

 

In-between all this, I was married and divorced. My ex-wife's father was 3x as bad about hoarding than anyone I have ever met. I only saw his collection once, he was very funny about it. But I do know that he also purchased bulk mint and proof sets (and his son did too) and just hid them away in boxes for prosperity, never intending to part with them.

 

I am one example (I mentioned 5 hoarders, including myself) .... there are thousands of people like me.

 

I have never been an active public coin figure only going rarely to a show to buy, not sell or trade. I do bid regularly at internet auctions, but not eBAY. To add even more to this ... I buy all my slabs. I have never submitted any of my raw coins to be graded. Nor have I ever sold a coin (raw or slabbed). They sit in albums, tubes, jars, flips, etc. This will change soon, though, as I do have a few dozen picked out that I would like to have slabbed to fill in some of my gaps. Come to think of it I still have a ton of gaps in my slab collections. I also am amassing quite a few duplicate slabs that I will probably end up selling soon.

 

To summarize, there are lots of moderns and semi-moderns out there that are untouched, ungraded, and unavailable until someone can pry them away from somebody's dead stiff hands, crack the sets, and send them in for grading. It won't be until there is a larger percentage of the total population submitted that we will have any idea how to trend these coins. Until then, enjoy the high profit in the low population of graded slabs. It won't last forever with millions and millions of boxed, untouched sets laying around waiting for the right non-hoarder/inheritor to cash them in for whatever they are worth at the time from a couple of bucks to a couple of thousand, who knows.

[cladking]

Certainly I see your point but you picked a very unfortunate example.

 

The SMS's have been highly picked over by many people for decades. About the only ones left as possible candidates are unopened boxes and these have become exceedingly tough to find in the last ten years. It also should be pointed out that if you have multiple unopened boxes it's possible to know what's in these by spot checking them. In other words, even some unopened boxes are checked.

 

Large numbers of these sets have been destroyed over the years and all the original buyers are some 40 years older. Since it was mostly middle aged men who bought them it's not reasonable to believe vast numbers of these remain in pristine condition.

 

I guess I'm an exception. I apologize in advance for the long story to follow. But here goes anyhow......

 

My father died in 1977 leaving me stacks of mint sets and proof sets, purchased direct by him every year. I was 14 at the time and an avid collector of pre-64 circulated coins. I don't have an official count of each year mint sets and proof sets, but there has to be at least 5 if not more of each type for each year. For 1976 I know I have one Xerox box full, the rest of the years, from 1963-75 and 1977, fill up 3 other Xerox boxes. I have never examined these other than the ID on the envelopes or boxes, nor did he. He just bought and stored them (as the hoarder he was). I plan to just pass these along to my kids or grandkids. Even as a coin collector, I shudder at the monotany of going through these sets, they do not interest me, therefore they sit.

He also left me jars and jars full of older silver and cents. Those I went through, each and every one, because they interest me.

 

Several years later after moving out-of-state for college, I stayed with my grandparents on my mom's side of the family. I didn't know my grandfather too well at the time, but I quickly found out he did the mint and proof set thing too, in addition he had 5 large coffee cans full of mixed AU Morgan and Peace Dollars with quite a few keys to boot plus many other silver coins. He died in 1994 and I inherited his hoard, filled up some Dansco albums to at least 90% complete and put the duplicates in tubes or flips. His mint and proof sets, mainly from the 60s fill up only 3/4 of one Xerox box which I have kept separate (for some reason) from the other sets.

 

I have continued my father's tradition since 1992 when my daughter was born. When the sets arrive from the mint each year, I pop open one each just to have a quick look (not to examine for grade), put them back and add them into the stack of her Xerox boxes full. Some years I buy one or two of each other years 20 of each, depending on my mood at the time. In addition to that, I also pieced together a set of slabbed PF70s for 1992 which I purchased piece by piece at various auctions for the same price as the PF69s that I purchased a few years before that (I'll eat that loss). I do the same for friends and family for their kids, but they never come from my personal mint or proof sets. Those sets will just sit in boxes for now. I consider them keepsakes and not investments. I may go through them and cherry pick some sets after I retire, but then again, maybe not.

 

In-between all this, I was married and divorced. My ex-wife's father was 3x as bad about hoarding than anyone I have ever met. I only saw his collection once, he was very funny about it. But I do know that he also purchased bulk mint and proof sets (and his son did too) and just hid them away in boxes for prosperity, never intending to part with them.

 

I am one example (I mentioned 5 hoarders, including myself) .... there are thousands of people like me.

 

I have never been an active public coin figure only going rarely to a show to buy, not sell or trade. I do bid regularly at internet auctions, but not eBAY. To add even more to this ... I buy all my slabs. I have never submitted any of my raw coins to be graded. Nor have I ever sold a coin (raw or slabbed). They sit in albums, tubes, jars, flips, etc. This will change soon, though, as I do have a few dozen picked out that I would like to have slabbed to fill in some of my gaps. Come to think of it I still have a ton of gaps in my slab collections. I also am amassing quite a few duplicate slabs that I will probably end up selling soon.

 

To summarize, there are lots of moderns and semi-moderns out there that are untouched, ungraded, and unavailable until someone can pry them away from somebody's dead stiff hands, crack the sets, and send them in for grading. It won't be until there is a larger percentage of the total population submitted that we will have any idea how to trend these coins. Until then, enjoy the high profit in the low population of graded slabs. It won't last forever with millions and millions of boxed, untouched sets laying around waiting for the right non-hoarder/inheritor to cash them in for whatever they are worth at the time from a couple of bucks to a couple of thousand, who knows.

 

What walks into coin shops is almost by definition what's out there. Sure you have to factor in changes over time and segregation of sellers due coin shop locations and such things but generally if you look at this it provides a sample of what people have. The simple fact is that the typical group of mint sets that come into shops now days starts about 1976 and ends at about 2003. There will be often be five of each for the early years and increasing numbers for later years. The average is lower however. These used to be quite common in dealers stock and the new numbers coming in but this is no longer true. Most dealers try to stock only two or three sets but they tend to buildup in time until they are shipped to the major buyers. Usually sets traded on the wholesale market are destroyed. The market for intact sets is still limited which has the curious effect of making the parts worth more than the whole, hence they get cut up.

 

This has been going on for a very long time and the number of sets "consumed" is very significant. Most of these coins have simply been spent over the years. The number available on the market at any given time has been relatively constant all along but has been growing a little in recent years due to increased demand. This number is far smaller than most people realize. You can't make a few phone calls and get a line on a thousand sets of something like a 1971. You might get promises to deliver in a few weeks but actually laying hands on this sort of number is not possible.

 

All the time there is a decreasing number of any given date coming into the shop or onto the market. This number has become fairly small for some dates like the '69. Even if the price went up five fold it would have little effect on the number of coins coming available.

 

But then comes the real problem that most collectors are not aware of; supply of raw coins does not necessarily translate to supply of the coins collectors are seeking. As an example it requires about 8 original 1969 mint sets to yield a single choice '69 quarter. It requires 1200 1970 mint sets to yield a single MS-66 FS nickel. You'd have trouble getting a hold of this number of sets in a month and your buying would get non-original sets in the mix.

 

Just as 1916-S nickels are distinct from 1913 nickels and have their own characteristics so too are the modern coins. Just as you are interested in the pre-'65 issues there are many who find the later coins to be just as interesting.

 

You're probably just a little unusual to know where so many of these sets are. I know only a few people who have sets and none collect them in any sort of systematic way nor do they have so many. I may well be wrong on this last point but there's no question that most of the older sets arte gone and the number of survivors onf the newer ones is far lower than it once was.

 

One final point; there are many moderns that never appeared in mint sets or proof sets. They were available only in change and many of the moderns simply weren't saved. You just might have a 1981 mint set (1:160 for each) with a type "d" reverse quarter but you nor any of your friends and relatives has an unc 1977 quarter with a type "d" reverse. They weren't put into mint sets and people didn't save rolls in the location they were released (apparently). This seems to apply to a great number of moderns; few remain. Or phrased another way, the populations of high grade Ikes would have to maintain their current rate of being slabbed for dozens of generations to catch up with the Morgans. The simple fact is that many of the moderns are scarce and that will never change.

[TomB]

An excellent example is the silver (1932-1964) Washington quarter market in the ultra-high grade range of MS67 and MS68. I do not have the pop reports on hand, but until approximately 2000 PCGS had only graded one silver issue Washington quarter as MS68. Then, in an apparent attempt to create more of a market for the highest graded pieces and perhaps drive submissions, PCGS graded eighteen silver issue Washington quarters as MS68 in the course of about two years. After that period, another shift seemed to occur and the numbers of newly graded silver issue Washington quarters graded as MS68 dropped to essentially zero. This was not chance, nor was it a sudden flood of previously unseen quality. It was more likely an attempt by the TPGs to profit within a niche market that had become extraordinarily hot.

 

"but until approximately 2000 PCGS had only graded one silver issue Washington quarter as MS68"

Hmmm, year 2000 you say? Right after the intro of the state quarter series.

 

"This was not chance, nor was it a sudden flood of previously unseen quality."

Perhaps this new interest in collecting state quarters encouraged more people to rumage through relative's basements and attics in search of stashed quarters (previously unseen) to complete 1932 - Date sets. People get interested in things just as fast as they lose interest, so that could partially explain the peak and valley of higher quality submissions.

I doubt that your hypothesis is correct at all. Some, perhaps even most, of the newly made MS68 silver era Washington quarters came from coins already graded MS66 and MS67 by PCGS that were subsequently regraded.

[gmarguli]

Back to the topic at hand...One variable that's tough to factor in, and you were right to point out, is the quantitative difference in the quality of coins the mint is producing (or the submitters submitting) from year to year. I would be very interested in your and other modern experts opinion on this topic, because if we don't rule this out (or bound it) then it shoots a hole in the entire theory.

 

Personally, I feel the quality from the Mint is clearly improving. However, I don't believe that this alone can be the answer to the higher populations of these coins.

 

For example, look at the 2005 & 2006 Silver Eagle graded by PCGS.

2005 - 5.98% graded PF70

2006 - 11.92% graded PF70

 

Isn't it a little hard to believe that at year 21 in the series the Mint finally was able to increase the quality by 100%. I would expect to see these dramatic increases in newer series like the Sacagawea, but not on a 20+ year old series.

[al_e_gator]

I doubt that your hypothesis is correct at all. Some, perhaps even most, of the newly made MS68 silver era Washington quarters came from coins already graded MS66 and MS67 by PCGS that were subsequently regraded.

 

"Some perhaps most?" And how did you come about that statistic? I don't recall ever seeing a publicly available stat on re-grades? One or two perhaps, but come on!

Total non-sense, honest people wouldn't do that (in an ideal world).

 

I keep hearing people say that they crack the case and submit it again to the same or to another grading company to see if they get a higher grade. What does that do to the total reported populations of graded coins? Is the other company notified that it no longer exists under that 'tracking number' or is the same coin covered under two or three different population reports of different services as the same grade, etc... Is that coin perhaps cracked and resubmitted 10 times to the same service for a better grade? Maybe.

 

How many of you notify ANACS or ICG when you crack one of their cases and send your newly-raw coins to NGC or PCGS for grading so that you can get a good registry spot?

 

The same coin can be tried as many times as any collector wants it to be. Submit the same coin 100 times, overall population goes up, but the one time it comes back 1 grade higher, it's a keeper for that level. Ha ha, eventually it'll be a MS70 in an ICG case.

 

If you are right, then let me get this straight then:

When you see a coin bragged as "20 graded at this level only 1 finer", you should know that it really means:

"1 graded at this level with one submitted 20 times until it got a higher grade".

 

It's just not right. Probably some of truth to it, but it's not right.

 

Disclaimer: This is not a personal attack, just me venting at random.

[Bruceswar]

I doubt that your hypothesis is correct at all. Some, perhaps even most, of the newly made MS68 silver era Washington quarters came from coins already graded MS66 and MS67 by PCGS that were subsequently regraded.

 

"Some perhaps most?" And how did you come about that statistic? I don't recall ever seeing a publicly available stat on re-grades? One or two perhaps, but come on!

 

As an Washington Collector, I agree with Tom. Many of these coins are indeed upgrades gvin by the TPG's. If there is a Demand they will sure try thier best to supply it.

[al_e_gator]

The simple fact is that many of the moderns are scarce and that will never change.

 

I agree with the statement if you mean that certain Varieties and errors like DDOs, missing mint marks, etc. Perhaps even a small few select 'key' dates amongst the moderns. The State Quarter series has so many freaking varieties it can make someone's head spin off trying to keep up.

However, the generic typical modern coins (Uncircs and Proofs) will start showing up in greater numbers and at the same high or higher grades over the next 5 to 20 years, making lower grades (the higher grades of today) close to worthless. There will be the exceptions of course.

 

Do we blame the grading companies for handing out PF70s willy-nilly or are these coins truly perfect?

If I look at the 1992S Silver PF69UC quarter that I bought when they were consistently selling between $20-70 each 10 or so years ago, luckily I bought on the low side of that range. PF70UCs started appearing on the market for this coin around 1998 commanding $200-$400 for several years. Jump to present day. PF69UCs are tough to give away at $5 and PF70UCs are consistently selling between $20-$70 because the demand has been filled for that coin at that grade. If someone has a PF68, which is still a nice coin, they might as well break it out of the holder and spend it at their local store.

 

As a side note, off subject: Several weeks ago at the local convenience store the clerk asked me to identify a cruddy coin that she mistook for a quarter. It was a very dirty 1866 F12 Two-cent piece. I offered her what I had left over from my change, about $6, plus a real quarter so her register didn't come up short.

 

Anyhow, we can debate this forever if you bring up varieties and errors. You are correct that certain key modern coins are truly collectible and perhaps even make a decent investment, but they are far and few between.

As far as Ikes go, I ran across maybe 10 or so in circulation each year into the late 70s and less frequently in the 80s and so one. Maybe people hoarded them, maybe not. Ike may have been a great man, but was an ugly bald dude and it made for a big clunky ugly coin (IMO). SBAs are in the same boat, she was an ugly chick and it was an unattractive coin. Why not make a dollar with nude super models on it instead of dead presidents?

[cladking]

However, the generic typical modern coins (Uncircs and Proofs) will start showing up in greater numbers and at the same high or higher grades over the next 5 to 20 years, making lower grades (the higher grades of today) close to worthless. There will be the exceptions of course.

 

Perhaps I didn't phrase my last response well.

 

The number of raw moderns coming onto the market has been consistently dropping for two generations. This applies to each individual date not the total number of moderns.

 

The rate at which they come onto the market is virtually independent of their price. Usually they come available because the owner retires or dies, but those selling have no clue as to what they are worth. They take them into a coin shop and walk out with whatever they will bring.

 

This flow onto the market is in some cases less than 10% what it once was. If the universe of a specific date is so large that vast numbers could appear in the distant future then where are these coins now and why aren't some coming onto the market?

 

No. The only reasonable explanation is that these sets are gone. The only way that even a significant number could show up later (5% of mintage) is if there are collectors out there buying them on the market and putting them away. Guess what? You almost never hear of this. On the very rare occassion you hear of any interest in these sets it's from collectors who are busting them up for individual coins. There are a few collectors who have arisen only in the last few years who want one of each date but bear in mind that in aggregate these guys aren't absorbing more than a few hundred sets of each date per year.

 

Not only are the sets gone and there were never any rolls to start with but many of these are almost all ugly. Try finding a nice attractive 1969 quarter or a well struck '71 dime and then tell me that there will be millions of these turning up in the future. These were tough back in '69 and '71 and the fact that everyone failed to set them aside did not make them common nor will it make them common in the future.

 

Don't misunderstand. These coins in this grade are hardly rare but there are not tens of millions, millions, or even hundreds of thousands out there. Some exist in numbers well under 10,000 and the potential demand exceeds this by a wide margin.

[JL3Eleven-migration]

As a new collector, this being my first year and me being 22 I find one thing funny. Old peoples idea of what is worth collecting. "They say why do you collect moderns, they arnt worth anything, there is no gold or silver in them." Point is who cares. As I see it in the future (50+ years) even a 2006 Roosevelt will be worth something, much less my MS65 Speared Bison or my MS66 High Leaf. So why would I want to start collecting MS63-64 Morgans when I can acquire the whole Statehood Quarter series in PF70 for around $40 per coin minus the 99's? It just makes more sense to me to collect the high grades MS69/PF70 of modern coins than medium grade old coins. Think about if you collected the highest grades possible when you were 16-20 year old, how much did they cost then, how much would they be worth today? Even if you dont like moderns you must admit that the past 8 years have been an exciting time for coinage, expecially 2004-06. The nickels were only minted half a year, the quarters were minted about 2.5 months, then you have the satin finish, mint state, and proof coins. Each of these coins in the future will demand its own spot in collections and registrys. So why not get one now at Rock Bottom Prices?

 

Why I buy PF70 Moderns:

1. Cheapest they will ever get.

2. Registry Points.

3. Because it is Perfect.

4. One day they will be valuable.

5. So One day my kids will have a #1 Set.

6. Old people hate them and sell them cheap.

[TomB]

I doubt that your hypothesis is correct at all. Some, perhaps even most, of the newly made MS68 silver era Washington quarters came from coins already graded MS66 and MS67 by PCGS that were subsequently regraded.

 

"Some perhaps most?" And how did you come about that statistic? I don't recall ever seeing a publicly available stat on re-grades? One or two perhaps, but come on!

Total non-sense, honest people wouldn't do that (in an ideal world).

 

I keep hearing people say that they crack the case and submit it again to the same or to another grading company to see if they get a higher grade. What does that do to the total reported populations of graded coins? Is the other company notified that it no longer exists under that 'tracking number' or is the same coin covered under two or three different population reports of different services as the same grade, etc... Is that coin perhaps cracked and resubmitted 10 times to the same service for a better grade? Maybe.

 

How many of you notify ANACS or ICG when you crack one of their cases and send your newly-raw coins to NGC or PCGS for grading so that you can get a good registry spot?

 

The same coin can be tried as many times as any collector wants it to be. Submit the same coin 100 times, overall population goes up, but the one time it comes back 1 grade higher, it's a keeper for that level. Ha ha, eventually it'll be a MS70 in an ICG case.

 

If you are right, then let me get this straight then:

When you see a coin bragged as "20 graded at this level only 1 finer", you should know that it really means:

"1 graded at this level with one submitted 20 times until it got a higher grade".

 

It's just not right. Probably some of truth to it, but it's not right.

 

Disclaimer: This is not a personal attack, just me venting at random.

I will give you two real world examples of what I have written in that post. The first is a 1947-S Washington quarter that I purchased in an NGC MS67 holder and crossed to PCGS where they graded it MS66. I subsequently sent the coin back to PCGS, in the PCGS holder, where it graded MS67. The total population of the MS66 level was reduced by one while the total population of the MS67 level was increased by one. This was so because PCGS had the coin in their possession and in their old holder. Therefore, they corrected the populations. It was then cracked out of the PCGS MS67 holder and sent back in raw where it was graded by PCGS as MS68. This time, the PCGS population for MS67 was not corrected downward by one since they did not see the coin in the holder, but the population for MS68 was increased by one.

 

The second is a 1935 Washington quarter that had been graded MS67 by PCGS and that was lot 6056 of auction 267 held by Heritage in August of 2001. The coin was immediately regraded and became the only PCGS MS68 of the date. I do not know if PCGS was made aware of the regrade for this coin because I do not know if it was sent in raw, or if sent in raw if the tag was returned.

 

There were two more examples of PCGS MS67 Washingtons becoming PCGS MS68 Washingtons that I had been aware of, but I do not recall the dates of the details of these coins since I don't normally keep a log of them. Anyway, what I wrote was correct and based on fact, which might be something you may want to consider.

[al_e_gator]

Think about if you collected the highest grades possible when you were 16-20 year old, how much did they cost then, how much would they be worth today?

Welcome to the world of coin collecting.

It would have been from 1979 - 1983 is when I would have been 16 - 20 years old. I do not own a single coin from these dates, not one. Since the TPG system was not in place then, but knowing my luck I would have ended up with MS65s and PF65s which still are not worth much today. Maybe I could have gotten lucky with an 83 DDR cent or two or some 82 'no-p' dimes. I do not know the trend on these from date of discovery to present. Then again, if I picked the right stocks back then I would be a very wealthy man now too.

 

Even if you dont like moderns you must admit that the past 8 years have been an exciting time for coinage, expecially 2004-06. The nickels were only minted half a year, the quarters were minted about 2.5 months, then you have the satin finish, mint state, and proof coins. Each of these coins in the future will demand its own spot in collections and registrys. So why not get one now at Rock Bottom Prices?

 

Are they at Rock Bottom? I think there is still room for them to drop further (and they will).

In the last 2 years here are some of the trends I came up with for the State Quarters:

2000S Silver PF70UCs from $80 down to $28

2001S Silver PF70UCs from $100 down to $44

2002S Silver PF70UCs from $100 down to $34

2003S Silver PF70UCs from $76 down to $42

Since issue date here are some of the trends I came up with:

2004S Silver PF70UCs from $250 down to $32

2005S Silver PF70UCs from $48 down to $36

2006S Silver PF70UCs from $46 down to $24

As for the 1999s, they seem to still fetch consistent higher prices, however, I still feel that if you have some that you should definitely sell within the next few years before that bubble pops. This, and the other 1999s were highly hoarded as first issue year coins. The Deleware Silver Proof 25c, king of the set (besides some varieties), has an 800,000 mintage. NGC is giving out 70s @ over 4% of the graded population for NGC (a whopping 10% of the graded Clads are PF70UCs). If you assume that 50% of the coins have been pre-screened that still leaves 400,000 coins out there, which potentially can amount to as many as 16,000 PF70UCs still out there. Price for this date will probably plummet at least to 50% of its current value and gradually drop another 20% or so before leveling.

 

 

Why I buy PF70 Moderns:

1. Cheapest they will ever get.

2. Registry Points.

3. Because it is Perfect.

4. One day they will be valuable.

5. So One day my kids will have a #1 Set.

6. Old people hate them and sell them cheap.

 

1. Don't bet the house on that, especially with the ultra moderns.

2. Sure PF70UCs are the highest points for the Proof Sets, but what good is a 100-way tie for first place?

3. The jury is still out on that.

4. Buy low (later), sell high (now)

5. Good for them

6. I wouldn't use the word hate, I am extremely cautious of them.

[World Colonial]

To provide an answer to the last post, people collect older material (whether Morgans or something else) in lower grades because that is either all they can afford or as in my case, the coins do not even exist in grades anywhere near a 69 or a 70.

 

Two other reasons to prefer older series is because there is little to no challenge in collecting moderns and many or most of these coins are overpiced versus others. If someone has the money, they could potentially go out on eBay and Teletrade and buy many of these sets in a day or a week.

 

I just bought a 1758 Mexico NGC AU-58 pillar half real for $116. Why a collector would prefer any modern coin over this or a similar one is beyond me, but every collector has their preference and the market has spoken its preference or else the coins that I buy and many other scarce series would not be so cheap.

[Kip-migration]

I'll take PCGS 70's for resale any day.. higher profit then NGC

[al_e_gator]

I'll take PCGS 70's for resale any day.. higher profit then NGC

 

I can't disagree with you on that point at all. Typically PCGS is the higher price sale, grade for grade.

[Zoins]

I'll take PCGS 70's for resale any day.. higher profit then NGC

I can't disagree with you on that point at all. Typically PCGS is the higher price sale, grade for grade.

In which of the following situations do you prefer PCGS 70s over NGC 70s?

 

(a) Where you buy from the mint and submit to PCGS and NGC to try and get 70s? Most people that like PCGS 70s for this reason seem to be people that submit limited numbers of coins directly from the Mint in hopes of getting 70s for resale. People/companies that buy large numbers of coins directly from the Mint for bulk submission seem to prefer NGC, presumably for more aggregate profit over the group of coins.

 

(b) Where you buy PCGS 70s and NGC 70s on the secondary market at market rates? I didn't see if you are both willing to pay the PCGS market premium to acquire a PCGS 70 on the secondary market. Are you?

 

© Where you can somehow get a PCGS 70 and NGC 70 on the secondary market at the same price? If you have a way to get these then you're all set

[Kip-migration]

I'll take PCGS 70's for resale any day.. higher profit then NGC

I can't disagree with you on that point at all. Typically PCGS is the higher price sale, grade for grade.

In which of the following situations do you prefer PCGS 70s over NGC 70s?

 

(a) Where you buy from the mint and submit to PCGS and NGC to try and get 70s? Most people that like PCGS 70s for this reason seem to be people that submit limited numbers of coins directly from the Mint in hopes of getting 70s for resale. People/companies that buy large numbers of coins directly from the Mint for bulk submission seem to prefer NGC, presumably for more aggregate profit over the group of coins.

 

(b) Where you buy PCGS 70s and NGC 70s on the secondary market at market rates? I didn't see if you are both willing to pay the PCGS market premium to acquire a PCGS 70 on the secondary market. Are you?

 

© Where you can somehow get a PCGS 70 and NGC 70 on the secondary market at the same price? If you have a way to get these then you're all set

 

I am not a buyer...I am a seller. If I was a buyer of NGC, I'd only buy at 1 grade lower prices.

[al_e_gator]

I'll take PCGS 70's for resale any day.. higher profit then NGC

I can't disagree with you on that point at all. Typically PCGS is the higher price sale, grade for grade.

In which of the following situations do you prefer PCGS 70s over NGC 70s?

 

(a) Where you buy from the mint and submit to PCGS and NGC to try and get 70s? Most people that like PCGS 70s for this reason seem to be people that submit limited numbers of coins directly from the Mint in hopes of getting 70s for resale. People/companies that buy large numbers of coins directly from the Mint for bulk submission seem to prefer NGC, presumably for more aggregate profit over the group of coins.

 

(b) Where you buy PCGS 70s and NGC 70s on the secondary market at market rates? I didn't see if you are both willing to pay the PCGS market premium to acquire a PCGS 70 on the secondary market. Are you?

 

© Where you can somehow get a PCGS 70 and NGC 70 on the secondary market at the same price? If you have a way to get these then you're all set

 

Me personally, no I will not pay a premium for one service over another. If I agree with the grade as they state on the label and they are willing to stand behind their claim, then it doesn't matter to me whether it is in an ANACS, NGC or PCGS holder (I don't own any ICG coins).

[cladking]

 

Two other reasons to prefer older series is because there is little to no challenge in collecting moderns and many or most of these coins are overpiced versus others. If someone has the money, they could potentially go out on eBay and Teletrade and buy many of these sets in a day or a week.

 

 

.

 

I've been collecting the closed set of clad eagle reverse quarters for more than a third of a century now and still have a very long way to go. I have a few coins that may prove to be unique or nearly so but still lack some of the important DDO's. (which have numbers known as low as 2). There is a unique 1964 clad quarter that I might never own. Some of my coins aren't even unc because no one saved uncs.

 

It's not simply that these coins are hard to obtain in circulation now and when they were issued. It's not a simple matter of having to come up with the cash. They simply aren't available and don't appear on the market or only rarely appear on the market.

 

Even many of my regular issue coins need upgrading. Try finding a nice '92-D quarter that isn't banged up. Try finding one of those superb PL '72-D quarters with full detail on the 2 of the date. Some coins like the '82-P probably don't have more than a few dozen well made examples with good surfaces in existence. I'm not talking gem just a nice coin struck by serviceable dies and not chewed up. These coins don't appear very often because the number of collectors for these coins is growing so any coin that appears will be absorbed very quickly. These were not set aside in any sorrt of quantity and the vast majority were simply garbage. This coin doesn't even sell for enough to warrant grading!!!! But the trick is finding it not grading it or affording it. Graded gems don't appear very often either but these are generally poorly struck by worn dies.

[cladking]

Welcome to the world of coin collecting.

It would have been from 1979 - 1983 is when I would have been 16 - 20 years old. I do not own a single coin from these dates, not one. Since the TPG system was not in place then, but knowing my luck I would have ended up with MS65s and PF65s which still are not worth much today. Maybe I could have gotten lucky with an 83 DDR cent or two or some 82 'no-p' dimes. I do not know the trend on these from date of discovery to present. Then again, if I picked the right stocks back then I would be a very wealthy man now too.

 

That may have been the golden age of modern collecting. It was about 1980 that Ikes started to go up among the few people who were paying attention to Ikes. There were lots of varieties in all of the denominations during this era and several rarities in the gems. The nice thing about these rarities is that you could find them. Some are so rare that it simply required great luck to find the release point and get a few, but the rarities in this era were spread out more widely because they were made buy more dies. The coins were made well and then banged up so the trick was just finding one clean. No matter where you were you could find the toughies.

 

My stock picks from that era did very well (most of them), but none could ever beat setting aside pennies that went to many hundreds of dollars or dollars that went to thousands.

 

Of course these don't mean anything being only paper profits and they won't be capitalized until these markets actually reflect full value or close to it. Why sell a rare modern that millions are collecting for hundreds of dollars when an equivalent classic collected by hundreds of thousands sells for far more?

[cladking]

6. Old people hate them and sell them cheap.

 

 

Hell, half the time they practically give them away.

[MAULEMALL]

6. Old people hate them and sell them cheap.

 

 

Hell, half the time they practically give them away.

[World Colonial]

CladKing,

 

I did not say that there were not any rare or hard to find coins in these issues. I am saying that on balance these coins are common and readilly available. And while the examples you cite are no doubt correct, these are not the rule and many of these sets can be completed easily. You are a specialist in your area as I am in mine but most collectors are not. The average collector of these series is not looking for these die varieties that a specialist such as yourself considers necessary for a complete set.

[cladking]

CladKing,

 

I did not say that there were not any rare or hard to find coins in these issues. I am saying that on balance these coins are common and readilly available. And while the examples you cite are no doubt correct, these are not the rule and many of these sets can be completed easily. You are a specialist in your area as I am in mine but most collectors are not. The average collector of these series is not looking for these die varieties that a specialist such as yourself considers necessary for a complete set.

 

There's no doubt that the modern sets are less expensive than the older sets with or without varieties. This is actually one of the weaknesses of moderns is that most sets are virtually incompleteable with the varieties OR in very high grade. But if you think a nice set of any of the moderns is easy then you're missing the point. You might be able to buy something like a complete memorial set in unc for only twenty or thirty dollars but I can assure you all the coins will not be nice and that upgrading each individual coin will be a challenge.

 

As an example of the challenge you're facing, probably every single 1968 cents in mint sets have carbon spots. Fewer than 1% have even a single side unaffected. 95% are simply ugly. And this isn't even one of the tough dates.

[al_e_gator]

As an example of the challenge you're facing, probably every single 1968 cents in mint sets have carbon spots. Fewer than 1% have even a single side unaffected. 95% are simply ugly. And this isn't even one of the tough dates.

 

Funny you should mention 1968. I doubt he has many pretty ones (out of the 7,044 he has), but check out this link, what a racket:

 

http://www.1968pennies.com/thisweekin1968pennies.htm

[cladking]

That looks like a funny site.

 

It uses the term '68 penny to refer to issues of all three mints and I'm referring only to the Philly mint coins. The D and S in the sets are also in pretty sorry shape but almost half the Denvers are still OK and about a third of the San Franciscos.

 

I'm starting to worry about the Philly. I don't spend much time looking at roll coins but they seem to have a lot of trouble as well.

[ronday]

WOW! Look at how much better NGC customers are at prescreening their proof coins

[MAULEMALL]

WOW! Look at how much better NGC customers are at prescreening their proof coins

Not better so much as More Knowledgeable,

[just-john]

IT not Death because is self inflected its SUICIDE/ When you see the new DOLLAR coin in

a SLAB marked FIRST DAY OF RELEASE AND WITH KNOW GRADE and even a non coin collector knows that all the coins were released on the same day.That my friends is a form of SUICIDE and sombody should lose there job

[World Colonial]

I believe that I do understand what you mean but I just was not specific enough in my original post or follow-up. Though I do not collect moderns (or any US coins anymore), I agree with you that modern US die varieties, conditional rarities and coins with specific eye appeal (such as "rainbow" toning) are hard to find or at least relatively so.

 

To me the key word is "relative" because by my (subjective) standards almost no US coins are hard to find outside of what I described above. On any given day, what most US collectors want is available from a dealer, on eBAY or Teletrade, or the next major auction if they have the money to buy them. So although I do not look for moderns, if I have seen 1796 or 1797 drapped bust half dollars and similar rarities on a few websites, then yes I would expect to find all moderns in the quality that most collectors are willing to buy in a relatively short period of time. And if I am wrong (which is definitely possible), then it is not because of the scarcity of this material, but because the prices are still low and it is not worth selling them. That is what I believe to be the case for some of the coins I do collect.

 

Let's start with proofs. When I responded to the other post that mentioned state quarters, I did mean that these could literally be found on eBAY, or in dealer stock or at the ANA convention in one day or a week. Same goes for ASE (except maybe the 1995-W) and modern commemoratives. Business strikes are tougher but I still saw many mint state NGC and PCGS coins on eBay with eye appeal and grade that would satisfy most collectors, including a 1965 quarter in MS-65 which has an NGC population of 31.

 

Having said all this, let me say that I think it is very important to the coin hobby that a vibrant market for modern coins exists. Yes, even though I prefer other coins and have what I consider to be better uses for my money. This is where most collectors start and then migrate to classic coins. I do not believe there is any question that the hobby is better for it and that all of our collections would be worth less money if this demand from new collectors did not exist (though it would be nice if the coins I collected were somewhat cheaper).

 

What I sometimes consider with the trend toward the corporatization of the hobby and increasing number of investors is whether eventually the prices for the quality coins the serious collector wants to buy will become less and less affordable until we can no longer afford to buy the "good" material. Even though most coins are relatively available, there are not that many high quality ones around where even a small number of additional investors with big money could not drive the prices substantially higher as has occured for generic gold and silver. That's what exists in many specialties in other forms of art, of which coins are one type.