Changing change...

[New_Horizons]

Any ideas as to when?! the mint will create NEW! coins??? And ideas as to what?! they will depict??? Which coin will be re-designed first??? Last???

 

My guess is, they will wait until '06, and start with the cent...

[New_Horizons]

As a follow-up, what will this do to the present value of today's coins...

[keithdagen]

The first known change is a temporary redesign of the Jefferson nickel in 2004 (I think) to honor Lewis & Clark. After that, who knows if or when we'll get new coins.

 

As to value, the clad coins will not rise noticably, because there are just too many of them still around.

[New_Horizons]

The 'old' way of doing business, for dealers, was that they generally handled coins from two 'generations' back... for example: Kennedy halves are two 'generations' newer than the walking Liberty halves, by virtue of the Franklins. Will present-day changes now influence the Franklins, should the Kennedy half be re-designed???

Same question for the Lincoln cents, by virtue of their reverse designs-- will this alter the value of the wheat-ear cent???

[cladking]

Indian cents aren't worth much either- - if they're worn out corroded common dates. Even in good condition most of them have not risen noticeably in the last century. There are just too many of them out there and not that many collectors. Don't get me wrong I like the coins and think they make a wonderful collection for anyone who's interested, but 99% of all these in existence are worth less than a dollar. On the other hand there are hundreds of thousands of people assembling collections from pocket change. Folders for the obsolete eagle reverse quarters are flying out of book stores and coin shops. Clad Roosevelt folders are also selling briskly. Most of these people started with the states issues and have found that the other coins are interesting. They mostly still have quite limited numismatic knowledge and are not buying coins. Many may not even realize that higher grade pieces are scarcer and more desirable than worn coins. These people are learning, they are cutting their teeth on these coins. Yes, most will branch out into the other cions and some already have. This is the reason for the strenght in many of the "collector coins" and a few other select areas of the market. But they are starting their collecting with the clads. Will this have long term repercussions? No doubt. What they'll be is anyones guess, but it's a safe bet that the bulk of the lads in circulation will never rise noticeably in price.

This is because th bulk of the clads in circulation are coins like an ugly VG 1965 quarter with a big gouge on the reverse. If you take a look though, you'll find that there are some very attractive clads around. You can still find nice AU's back to '87, XF's back to '82, and VF's all the way back to the beginning 37 years ago. There are some dates you'll have to settle for a F or VG, but even these can be attractive if you look long enough. So, yea, most of the clads will never be worth much of anything. Probably 99.9% will be available in 100 years for less than a dollar.

[cladking]

The number of people collecting coins is exploding. If the coins are redesigned then it will cause even more people to become interested. We in the hobby need to encourage these people and the changes to the designs. It is impossible to predict what percentage of the new collectors will become serious students of coins. A kid compiling a set of the old clad quarters is nice and a wonderful learning experience for him, but it will do established collectors no good when it comes time for them to sell their collections. This kid needs to be encouraged just as much as his friend who doesn't collect at all or only collects the states issues. The hobby is experiencing a "sea change" that will go on for many years. We need to do what is possible to anticipate these changes so we can weather them.

[GDJMSP]

The US Mint announced their timetable for new coin designs back in Aug. of this year. It is as follows -

5-cent coin 2003

Dime 2004

Half dollar 2005

Cent 2006

The Mint is also considering a change to the Sacagawea dollar which would include a 50 State Bird commem program for the reverse of the dollar coin.

[keithdagen]

Problem is that even today, after the state quarter craze, you can take $100 at a change machine, and complete a VF or better set of Clad Washington's after sorting the results, and still have plenty of money left over for your Cokes. I don't see this changing, because the supplies are too huge.

 

Mayeb in another 10 or 15 years, we'll start to see the dates from the 60's and 70's disappear from circulation, but you never know. I got a 1938 Jefferson Nickel in change yesterday at McDonald's.

[cladking]

I've gone through 8,000 quarters since mid 1997. I'm still five coins away from having them all in VF or better. I'm lacking a few varieties altogether. In some ways the dimes are even tougher. The hardest to find clad is now the 1969 dime and accounts for 1 coin in about 950 dimes. The 1968-D quarter accounts for 1 coin in about 900. So in $100 in quarters you would probably lack the 68-D. You would also lack the 69, 69-D, 70, 71, and 73-D. In fact, you'd probably have only about 3 nice VF's before 1982. They'd probably be the '65, '72-D and a bicentennial issue. At the current attrition rates it will be many more years before any of these coins will disappear from circulation. Attrition rates are however increasing and the tougher dates for the first time are suffering greater attrition due to the actions of collectors. It's entirely possible that some dates could be removed in even less than 10 years if even more people get involved in collecting them. But don't look for a worn out and damaged clad to ever develope much of a premium- - there are lots of worn out clads. That's what has happened to the hundreds of millions of these that were struck. Except for the 50% that were destroyed by time, they are worn out in circulation.

[Tootawl]

Hopefully they won't change the cent until 2009 so we can celebrate 100 years of Lincoln cents.

[keithdagen]

Guess I just got lucky and somebody dumped a bunch of original stuff in the change machine at work.

[New_Horizons]

GDJMSP--

WOW!!! Thank-you!, for the info!!! I know the paper money is set for more changes, so-- with coins getting re-designed-- we are going to see lotsa! new directions to go!!! Thank-you for the post!!!

 

Do you (anyone!) see these changes as helping, or hurting, the hobby??? Will the new coins add, or take away from, the value of what we now have???

[GDJMSP]

I see new designs as helping the hobby. It's like with ice cream - chocolate & vanilla - different folks like different flavors. So new designs will likely stimulate some interest for people who did not previously collect coins. I think it will also stimulate interest in the last years of a given series for current collectors.

 

As for values - I doubt it will change values much on previous years issues. But if the mintages drop on the last year or two of a design - those years will likely have some premium attached.

 

The debate about what recently issued coins will be valuable has always been the same over the years. At any given time in history many collectors disparage the coins of the current time as not likely to appreciate in value in the years to come. It is usually only after time has passed that the value of a given issue is recognized. Because collectors always seem to rationalize that when it comes to recent issues - everybody is putting rolls & rolls of BU coins away. And many times they are correct.

 

But patience is a virtue that not many have. And as time passes those rolls that were put away are brought out and sold or distributed into circulation. With the result being that a few years down the road - high grade examples of these coins are very hard to come by indeed. To be sure - lower grade examples will be plentiful. And for many collectors - the lower grade examples are more than suitable for their collections.

 

But there has always been - and there will always be - that segment of the collecting public for which lower grade examples are just not quite good enough. They insist on only the best. So I have little doubt that even when it comes to clad coins - the higher grade examples will be quite valuable.

 

[keithdagen]

Two things:

 

1. More collectors will jump in only if the new coins are worthy. More dead presidents will not a revival create. I doubt that 50 state bird reverses on Sacs will have the impact of the state quarter program.

 

2. Rarest circulating modern -- the Sac, hands down. How many have you seen outside of coin shops. The problem? There's 400 bazillion in bank vaults. Now, once they all corrode, maybe they'll become collectible

[Oldtrader3]

The Sac is going the way of the SBA. It's cool because the Mint is creating instantly collectable Dollar sets. By the way, has anyone here read a plausible explanation as to why the Mint coined the 1999 SBA's? They look nice in my Capital Holder set, but I can not fathom why the Mint would issue more of these uncirculating coins unless there was a Seigniorage issue.

[Hoot]

I read a while back in Coin World that the 1999 SBAs were minted to meet a vendor demand. Plausable? I dunno. I guess some vendors encounter the things.

 

Why the Mint did not include the SBA in its Mint and proof sets baffles me.

 

The whole issue of a circulating dollar coin alongside a circulating dollar note is so transparent that the bureaucrats ignoring it should be thrown in jail for fraud.

 

Hoot

[keithdagen]

The Mint did not have enough SBA's to fill the needs of the transit industry, and the Sacs were not slated to arrive until 2000, so the Mint issued the 1999 SBA's.

 

As to collectible, the Mint has created billions of the coins. At those quantities, the business strikes will never be more than novelty items. The only ones that will be collectible are the Millenium issues and the questionable Goodacre varities.

[keithdagen]

Hoot,

 

The business strikes were struck after the standard Mint sets were made available, if memory serves.

 

Rapid transit systems are the main users of the dollar coins, as they dispense them in change at point-of-sale machines.

[paigow_johnny]

I risk offending a few collectors out there...but the Sac must go...and might I add the half dollar as well...and dare I say, the penny (oops...I mean cent...the purists will jump on me.)

 

I don't like the Sac...never have and never will...but strictly from a commerce standpoint, we are a paper money society. Even in the day of real silver dollars...they weren't popular with the advent of the dollar bill except in certain parts of the country. Unless we pull the dollar bill out of the market, a dollar coin is destined to die.

 

As for halves...now I know there are quite a few Kennedy fans out there...but face it...when's the last time you got one ?? The only time I ever see them is in change playing paigow in Vegas...and if I do get them, they normally go straight to the church collection plate or part of some drink tip (along with any Sacs and SBAs I may get stuck with). Can't use them in a parking meter or a vending machine...Collectors may want them...but as for commerce, why do you think so many are sitting in gov't vaults ??

[Oldtrader3]

The Mint must still have millions of 1979 SBA's laying around. By minting new SBA's, they create a hell of a problem because of Seignorage. The coins are an asset on the Mint's books forever if they are not issued for circulation. It all just seems to be poor management as usual, I guess.

[cladking]

There are many rare circulating coins. Indeed, there is probably no time in history that there has been so diverse and numerous rarities in circulation. Always in the past centuries people collected coins from change. It has been only in the last half century (37 years in this country) that people have virtually ignored current coinage. Many of the mdern coins weren't saved in unc and the worn ones were demonetized and melted for their scant metal content. Shiploads of coins flow from S America to Japan with coin to be melted. There is wholesale destruction of the old European coins occurring right now. Virtually the entire output of the US mint for the past 37 years in in circulation getting worn out in circulation or has already been destroyed by fire, flood, earthquake, or being buried in a landfill. Many people are figuring that there are enough mint sets to satisfy any possible demand in he future, but this source too has suffered atrotious attrition. These sets sold for less than face value for many years. They have had the same problems as circulating coins to a smaller extent. And they have been disassembled by various collectors, used by promoters, bought by non serious collectors, used as fodder to build sets of whatever is selling at the current time etc. In addition many have corroded or been badly mishandled. These sets come on the market mostly from estates and many of the people who bought these sets originally have already passed on. Fewer are coming on the market for this reason just as the demand for them is starting a steep increase. There are no hordes of these in unc, there are no hoards of these in XF, and there are no hordes in VF for most dates. Most collectors will have to settle for VG's and Fines. If you don't collect them, this is of little consequence to you. But hundreds of thousands of people do now and it remains to be seen just how tough they are to find.

 

Most of the desirable coins in circulation right now don't sell for a lot of money, but there are still many $100+ coins being found and it seems there are more every year.

[keithdagen]

Wow, I can't say that I was expecting an essay response.

 

I regularly get coins from Lincoln's to Washington's in change through every day commerce, and all of them are easily available, at least for those that were released into circulation. I regularly get material from the 60's and 70's in nice, collectible condition.

 

Maybe not high grade, but still nice and circulated. Give any kid a Whitman folder for Lincoln's, and he can put together a majority of a Memorial set fairly easily. Same with clad Roosevelts or Washington's. The coins are available, and you don't see those kids crying in their albums at night because they can only find VG examples.

 

And if they really need a BU example, they can get one at a local coin shop or at a show for 2 to 3 times face.